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INTEGRATED FORECAST and MANAGEMENT in NORTHERN CALIFORNIA – INFORM a Demonstration Project

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INTEGRATED FORECAST and MANAGEMENT in NORTHERN CALIFORNIA – INFORM a Demonstration Project CPASW March 23, 2006 INTEGRATED FORECAST AND MANAGEMENT IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA – INFORM A Demonstration Project Present: Eylon Shamir HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH CENTER GEORGIA WATER RESOURCES INSTITUTE Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org INFORM: Integrated Forecast and Management in Northern California Hydrologic Research Center & Georgia Water Resources Institute Sponsors: CALFED Bay Delta Authority California Energy Commission National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Collaborators: California Department of Water Resources California-Nevada River Forecast Center Sacramento Area Flood Control Agency U.S. Army Corps of Engineers U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org Vision Statement Increase efficiency of water use in Northern California using climate, hydrologic and decision science Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org Goal and Objectives Demonstrate the utility of climate and hydrologic forecasts for water resources management in Northern California Implement integrated forecast-management systems for the Northern California reservoirs using real-time data Perform tests with actual data and with management input Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org Major Resevoirs in Nothern California Application Area 41.5 Sacramen to River Capacity of Major Reservoirs 41 (million acre-feet): Pit River Trinit y Trinity - 2.4 Trinity Shasta 40.5 Trinity River Shasta Shasta - 4.5 Oroville - 3.5 Feather River 40 Folsom - 1 39.5 Degrees North Latitude Oroville Oroville N. Fork American River 39 FolsomFolsom 38.5 123.5 123 122.5 122 121.5 121 120.5 Degrees West Longitude 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 Elevation (meters) Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org The hydrologic objectives complexity Objectives Comply with water supply to the delta Flood mitigation and control Water resources (2/3 of California potable water) Fishery (Salmon hatching) (manage water temperature) Agriculture in the Central Valley (7 million acres of irrigated AG) Hydro power generation In-stream ecology Recreation Issues Increasing Demand (California‘s Growing economy) Aging infrastructure Climate Change in the Sierra Nevada Environmental Regulations Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org Utility of hydrologic forecast: A retrospective study for Folsom Lake Compare between: current operational rules (nowcast with no forecast) and 1970-1992 forecast was generated every 5-day with daily resolution for 2-month horizon from: NWS procedure for Ensemble Streamflow Prediction ESP (ESP) Monthly estimates of precipitation and temperature from two Global Climate Models (GCM) a) Canadian model (CGCM) b) Max Plank Institute of Meteorology (ECHAM) Perfect forecast scenario (retrospective) data Georgakakos et al. 2005 EOS Carpenter and Georgakakos 2001 J. of Hydrology Yao and Georgakakos 2001 J. of Hydrology Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org Results of operation based on rigid operational rules Benefits For Folsom Reservoir 12 Feasibility Studies 1000 10 Benefit dependent on: the quality 800of forecast and the 8 decision 600 6 400 SPILLAGE (BCF) 4 CGCM ECHAM 200 2 MAXIMUM FLOOD DAMAGE (M$) CGCM PERFECT ECHAM OPERATIONAL ESP OPERATIONAL PERFECT 0 0 ESP 70 60 50 40 30 ENERGY VALUE (M$) 20 10 ESP CGCM OPERATIONAL ECHAM PERFECT 0 Carpenter and Georgakakos (2001); Yao and Georgakakos (2001); Georgakakos et al., (2004) Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org The problem Synoptic and climatic forecast contain uncertainty The effective use of these needs to explicitly account for the uncertainty both in the forecast and the operational management Reservoir is operated based on nowcast information and under institutional constrains Rigid rules that provide list of actions based on current information Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org Demonstration Concept Fixed Operation Real Time Input Rules ACTUAL System VIRTUAL Characteristics Flexible Trade-offs Measurable Other Measurable Other Decision Maker Benefits Benefits Benefits Benefits Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org The modeling Components Global Forecast System (GFS) Climate Forecasts System (CFS) (1° x 1°) 8 traces, 6-hour time 16-day to-9-month lead time step, Updated daily Updated 4-time per day 0-16 days lead time Downscale Precipitation Radiative transfer Conditional ESP Orographic model Surface temperature (10 x 10) km 16-day to 9-month Semi distributed Snow and Ensembles Hydrologic model 12-hr/1-day resolution Ensemble Hydrologic Model Input Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org DSS – Multi Objective and temporal scale Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org Precipitation Downscaling – Performance Measures Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org Temperature Downscaling - Tests Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org Examples of Hydrologic Performance Analysis – Time Series OROVILLE DAILY FLOW - CMS 1000 400 500 200 0 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Water Year 1961 Water Year 1962 3000 400 2000 200 1000 0 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Water Year 1963 Water Year 1964 4000 400 CMS 2000 200 0 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Water Year 1965 Water Year 1966 1500 1000 1000 500 500 0 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Water Year 1967 Water Year 1968 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Water Year 1969 Water Year 1970 Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org Examples of Hydrologic Performance Analysis – Monthly Climatology 0.5 0.5 Observed Observed 0.45 Simulated 0.45 Simulated 0.4 0.4 0.35 0.35 0.3 Folsom 0.3 Oroville 0.25 0.25 0.2 0.2 Montly fractionMontly fractionMontly 0.15 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.05 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 Month (Oct through Sep) Month (Oct through Sep) 0.5 0.5 Observed Observed 0.45 Simulated 0.45 Simulated 0.4 0.4 0.35 Trinity 0.35 0.3 0.3 Shasta 0.25 0.25 0.2 0.2 Montly fractionMontly fractionMontly 0.15 0.15 0.1 0.1 0.05 0.05 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 Month (Oct through Sep) Month (Oct through Sep) Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org SAMPLE RELIABILITY DIAGRAMS Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org Conclusion of Hydrologic Performance Analysis ¾INFORM hydrology model performed well and captured the hydrologic response with respect to timing and magnitude, and for various temporal scales ¾Performance analogous to what was found for the operational CNRFC hydrology forecast model running with the same parameters ¾Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP) have been validated over the historical horizon for all reservoir sites Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org Sample of INFORM Product Ensemble Streamflow Global Forecast System Prediction (ESP) (GFS) Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org Web Dissemination Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org Forecast issued: March 9, 2006 22:00 PST Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org Forecast issued: March 9, 2006 22:00 PST Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org FUTURE PLANS ¾INFORM quasi-operational testing during Winter 2005 and performance assessment ¾Use the INFORM structure for assessing climate and demand change impacts on management for conservation, flood control, downstream objectives and energy production ¾What-if simulations for training, preparation and modification of current operational procedures Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org.
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