DOCSLIB.ORG

Performance of a Very High-Resolution Global Forecast System Model (GFS T1534) at 12.5 Km Over the Indian Region During the 2016–2017 Monsoon Seasons

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Performance of a Very High-Resolution Global Forecast System Model (GFS T1534) at 12.5 Km Over the Indian Region During the 2016–2017 Monsoon Seasons J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2019) 128:155 c Indian Academy of Sciences https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-019-1186-6 Performance of a very high-resolution global forecast system model (GFS T1534) at 12.5 km over the Indian region during the 2016–2017 monsoon seasons P Mukhopadhyay1,* ,VSPrasad2, R Phani Murali Krishna1, Medha Deshpande1, Malay Ganai1, Snehlata Tirkey1, Sahadat Sarkar1, Tanmoy Goswami1, C J Johny2, Kumar Roy1, M Mahakur1, V R Durai3 and M Rajeevan4 1 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008, India. 2National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, A-50, Sector-62, Noida, UP, India. 3India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi 110 003, India. 4Ministry of Earth Science, Government of India, Prithvi Bhavan, New Delhi 110 003, India. *Corresponding author. e-mail: [email protected] [email protected] MS received 1 September 2018; revised 17 March 2019; accepted 20 March 2019; published online 4 June 2019 A global forecast system model at a horizontal resolution of T1534 (∼12.5 km) has been evaluated for the monsoon seasons of 2016 and 2017 over the Indian region. It is for the first time that such a high-resolution global model is being run operationally for monsoon weather forecast. A detailed validation of the model therefore is essential. The validation of mean monsoon rainfall for the season and individual months indicates a tendency for wet bias over the land region in all the forecast lead time. The probability distribution of forecast rainfall shows an overestimation (underestimation) of rainfall for the lighter (heavy) categories. However, the probability distribution functions of moderate rainfall categories are found to be reasonable. The model shows fidelity in capturing the extremely heavy rainfall categories with shorter lead times. The model reasonably predicts the large-scale parameters associated with the Indian summer monsoon, particularly, the vertical profile of the moisture. The diurnal rainfall variability forecasts in all lead times show certain biases over different land and oceanic regions and, particularly, over the north–west Indian region. Although the model has a reasonable fidelity in capturing the spatio- temporal variability of the monsoon rain, further development is needed to enhance the skill of forecast of a higher rain rate with a longer lead time. Keywords. High-resolution global forecast system; GFS model; monsoon rain; verification. 1. Introduction in terms of better power and improved eastward propagation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (as In the past several decades, there has been intraseasonal variability) has been aptly shown by significant improvement in the skill of weather fore- a non-hydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model casting using numerical weather prediction models. (Sato et al. 2005; Miura et al. 2015). Rajen- It is demonstrated globally that enhanced reso- dran and Kitoh (2008) have shown that the sea- lution of the general circulation models (GCM) sonal mean climate simulations have improved in improves the model fidelity. The increased skill high-resolution models. It is also reported that 1 0123456789().,--: vol V 155 Page 2 of 18 J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2019) 128:155 community atmosphere models with higher T574L64 model produced 1-day gain in forecast resolution have shown improvement of simulation skill compared to the T382L64 model (Prasad for the systems associated with large-scale circula- et al. 2014). In order to have a uniform data set tion (Hack et al. 2006). Williamson et al. (1995) (comparable skill) for a longer period that can showed that many nonlinear driving processes of be used for climate-related studies, a retrospective large-scale motion are represented better in high- analysis is carried out with the model configura- resolution models. Also, the European Centre for tion of T574L64 from 2000 to 2011 (Prasad et al. Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Inte- 2017). At present, Hybrid 4D Ens-Var assimila- grated Forecast System (IFS) model at a 10-km tion with the T1534L64 model resolution has been resolution simulates the observed tropical cyclone used in operational weather forecasts since 2017 frequency and intensity more reasonably than April. its coarser resolution versions (Manganello et al. It is worthy to mention that from 2010 onwards, 2012). an operational seasonal forecast based on the In the past, only a few global centres explored dynamical coupled model, National Centre for the GCM for operational forecasting having res- Environmental Prediction (NCEP) CFSv2 (Cli- olution lesser than 100 km, mainly due to the mate Forecast System version 2 model) was used limitation of computational resources. Recently, at a T382 (∼35 km) resolution for the Indian sum- leading global operational centres, e.g., ECMWF mer monsoon (ISM) forecast (June–July–August– inducted very high-resolution GCM (with a 9-km September) (Dandi et al. 2016). Along with the resolution for deterministic and 16 km for ensem- development of a dynamical seasonal forecast mo- ble prediction) for 10 days weather forecast. Many del, an extended range multi-model (CFS/GFS) previous studies have reported the increasing ten- ensemble forecast system has also been devel- dencies of extreme events (Goswami et al. 2006; oped to issue forecast up to four pentads. The Rajeevan et al. 2008; Roxy et al. 2017 and the ref- seasonal and extended range forecast system devel- erences therein) over the Indian region. Kim et al. oped under ‘Monsoon Mission’ of Ministry of Earth (2018) highlighted the importance of the high- Science, Government of India, has been found to resolution models to capture the extreme rainfall be very effective in enhancing the skill of forecast, events over the Indian region. In India, the econ- particularly, for the agricultural sector. Extended omy is largely dependent on agriculture (Gadgil range forecast has also been found to be use- and Gadgil 2006) vis-`a-vis the summer monsoon ful for providing warnings of heat wave anomalies rainfall, and this as such becomes the major factor and extreme rainfall with three pentads lead times behind the need for monsoon research for improved (Borah et al. 2015; Joseph et al. 2018). prediction. The operational forecasting in India While the seasonal forecast is able to provide was based on a global forecast system (GFS) with a skilful forecast of ISM over the country as a Eulerian (EL) dynamical core model at 27 km reso- whole and the extended range forecast provides lution. Hence there was a need to improve the skill weekly anomalies over the region up to four pen- of weather forecast, in general, and for the extreme tads, there was an increasing demand, particularly, events, in particular, using the numerical model at from the agro-met services of the India Meteorolog- higher spatial resolution. ical Department to provide forecast advisories for In India, the generation of medium-range a period of around 10 days at the sub-district level. forecasts was started at National Centre for The increasing frequency of flood due to extreme Medium Range Weather Forecast (NCMRWF) in rain (Nandargi and Gaur 2015) over the major 1994 using the T80L18 global data assimilation Indian cities was also a point of concern. Keeping and forecasting system. In the course of time, particularly the requirement for a high-resolution assimilated volume of data and model resolution forecast over the country to enhance the services increased considerably as a result of improve- and extend it to the sub-district level, a state- ments in the model, observing system and the of-the-art very high-resolution NCEP GFS model data reception system. Major improvements in (semi-Lagrangian (SL)) at T1534 (∼12.5 km) has forecasting skill were observed in 2010 with the been established. In the present study, the eval- introduction of the T382L64 model configuration uation of the high-resolution model skill over and further upgradation to T574L64 on compar- the Indian region for two monsoon seasons ison with previous versions of the model (Prasad (2016–2017) has been carried out for the first et al. 2011). In the 2011 monsoon period, the time. J. Earth Syst. Sci. (2019) 128:155 Page 3 of 18 155 2. Model, observation and methodology NCEP (http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/GFS/doc. php). The GFS model dynamical core is based In order to fulfil the requirement for the block on a two time-level semi-implicit SL discretisa- level forecast in India, a very high-resolution deter- tion approach (Sela 2010), while the physics is ministic GFS with spectral resolution of T1534 done in the linear, reduced Gaussian grid in the (∼12.5 km) with 64 hybrid vertical levels (top horizontal space. It is the first time that the SL layer around 0.27 hPa) has been implemented for dynamical core (previously EL) is implemented in daily operational forecast since June 2016. The the GFS T1534 for operational forecast over India, global atmospheric model in GFS is a global spec- equivalent to other global operational centres, tral model (GSM) version 13.0.2, adopted from namely, ARPEGE (Meteo France), GEM (Environ- ment Canada), GFS (NCEP, USA), GSM (Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)), IFS (ECMWF), MetUM (United Kingdom Met. Office), etc. The major advantage of the SL framework over the EL approach is that it is an unconditionally sta- ble scheme which accurately captures waves with high phase speed and sufficient accuracy. It also saves lot of computational time as compared to the EL framework due to longer time steps. A detailed description of the benefits of the SL approach is described in detail in the study by Staniforth and Cˆot´e (1991). Figure 1 and table 1 describe the schematic of GFS T1534 and the description of model physics, respectively. The ini- tial conditions for the forecast are generated by the NCMRWF through the global data assimila- tion system (GDAS) cycle which has more Indian data in it.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Emulation of a Full Suite of Atmospheric Physics
    Emulation of a Full Suite of Atmospheric Physics Parameterizations in NCEP GFS using a Neural Network Alexei Belochitski1;2 and Vladimir Krasnopolsky2 1IMSG, 2NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC email: [email protected] 1 Introduction is captured by periodic functions of day and month, and variability of solar energy output is reflected in the solar constant. In addition to the full atmospheric state, NN receives full land-surface model (LSM) state to Machine learning (ML) can be used in parameterization development at least in two different ways: 1) as an capture impact of surface boundary conditions. All NN outputs are increments of dynamical core's prognostic emulation technique for accelerating calculation of parameterizations developed previously, and 2) for devel- variables that the original atmospheric physics package modifies. opment of new \empirical" parameterizations based on reanalysis/observed data or data simulated by high resolution models. An example of the former is the paper by Krasnopolsky et al. (2012) who have developed highly efficient neural network (NN) emulations of both long{ and short-wave radiation parameterizations for 4 Hybrid Coupling of Full Atmospheric Physics NN to GFS a high resolution state-of-the-art short{ to medium-range weather forecasting model. More recently, Gentine Full atmospheric physics NN only et al. (2018) have used a neural network to emulate 2D cloud resolving models (CRMs) embedded into columns updates the state of the atmo- of a \super-parameterized" general circulation model (GCM) in an aqua-planet configuration with prescribed sphere and does not update the invariant zonally symmetric SST, full diurnal cycle, and no annual cycle.
    [Show full text]
  • INTEGRATED FORECAST and MANAGEMENT in NORTHERN CALIFORNIA – INFORM a Demonstration Project
    CPASW March 23, 2006 INTEGRATED FORECAST AND MANAGEMENT IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA – INFORM A Demonstration Project Present: Eylon Shamir HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH CENTER GEORGIA WATER RESOURCES INSTITUTE Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org INFORM: Integrated Forecast and Management in Northern California Hydrologic Research Center & Georgia Water Resources Institute Sponsors: CALFED Bay Delta Authority California Energy Commission National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Collaborators: California Department of Water Resources California-Nevada River Forecast Center Sacramento Area Flood Control Agency U.S. Army Corps of Engineers U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org Vision Statement Increase efficiency of water use in Northern California using climate, hydrologic and decision science Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org Goal and Objectives Demonstrate the utility of climate and hydrologic forecasts for water resources management in Northern California Implement integrated forecast-management systems for the Northern California reservoirs using real-time data Perform tests with actual data and with management input Eylon Shamir: [email protected] www.hrc-web.org Major Resevoirs in Nothern California Application Area 41.5 Sacramen to River Capacity of Major Reservoirs 41 (million acre-feet): Pit River Trinit y Trinity - 2.4 Trinity Shasta 40.5 Trinity River Shasta Shasta - 4.5 Oroville - 3.5 Feather River 40 Folsom - 1 39.5 Degrees North Latitude Oroville Oroville N.
    [Show full text]
  • 5Th International Conference on Reanalysis (ICR5)
    5th International Conference on Reanalysis (ICR5) 13–17 November 2017, Rome IMPLEMENTED BY Contents ECMWF | 5th International Conference on Reanalysis (ICR5) 2017 2 Introduction It is our pleasure to welcome the Climate research has benefited over the • Status and plans for future reanalyses • Evaluation of reanalyses reanalysis community at the 5th years from the continuing development Global and regional production, inclusive Comparisons with observations, International Conference on Reanalysis of reanalysis. As reanalysis datasets of all WCRP thematic areas: atmosphere, other types of analysis and models, (ICR5). We are delighted that we are become more diverse (atmosphere, land, ocean and cryosphere – Session inter-comparisons, diagnostics – all able to come together in Rome. ocean and land components), more organisers: Mike Bosilovich (NASA Session organisers: Franco Desiato This five-day international conference complete (moving towards Earth-system GMAO), Shinya Kobayashi (JMA), (ISPRA), Masatomo Fujiwara (Hokkaido is the worldwide leading event for the coupled reanalysis), more detailed, and Simona Masina (CMCC) University), Sonia Seneviratne (ETH), continuing development of reanalysis of longer timespan, community efforts Adrian Simmons (ECMWF) • Observations for reanalyses for climate research, which provides a to evaluate and intercompare them Preparation, organisation in large • Applications of reanalyses comprehensive numerical description become more important. archives, data rescue, reanalysis Generating time-series of Essential
    [Show full text]
  • Evaluation of Cloud Properties in the NOAA/NCEP Global Forecast System Using Multiple Satellite Products
    Clim Dyn DOI 10.1007/s00382-012-1430-0 Evaluation of cloud properties in the NOAA/NCEP global forecast system using multiple satellite products Hyelim Yoo • Zhanqing Li Received: 15 July 2011 / Accepted: 19 June 2012 Ó Springer-Verlag 2012 Abstract Knowledge of cloud properties and their vertical are similar to those from the model, latitudinal variations structure is important for meteorological studies due to their show discrepancies in terms of structure and pattern. The impact on both the Earth’s radiation budget and adiabatic modeled cloud optical depth over storm track region and heating within the atmosphere. The objective of this study is to subtropical region is less than that from the passive sensor and evaluate bulk cloud properties and vertical distribution sim- is overestimated for deep convective clouds. The distributions ulated by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric of ice water path (IWP) agree better with satellite observations Administration National Centers for Environmental than do liquid water path (LWP) distributions. Discrepancies Prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) using three global in LWP/IWP distributions between observations and the satellite products. Cloud variables evaluated include the model are attributed to differences in cloud water mixing ratio occurrence and fraction of clouds in up to three layers, cloud and mean relative humidity fields, which are major control optical depth, liquid water path, and ice water path. Cloud variables determining the formation of clouds. vertical structure data are retrieved from both active (Cloud- Sat/CALIPSO) and passive sensors and are subsequently Keywords Cloud fraction Á NCEP global forecast system Á compared with GFS model results.
    [Show full text]
  • HIRLAM-B Review September 2016
    External review of the HIRLAM-B programme 2011 – 2015 Peter Lynch Dominique Marbouty Tiziana Paccagnella September 2015 External review of the HIRLAM-B programme, September 2015 Page 2 Table of contents List of recommendations page 4 Summary page 5 Part one Introduction page 7 Background to the review Composition of the Review Team and its organisation Part two The HIRLAM programme page 10 Structure and governance of the programme Staffing resources Achievements of the HIRLAM-B programme Recommendations of the previous review, follow-up Part three Model performance, forecasters’ feedback page 17 Part four Towards an expanded programme page 22 Scope of the single Consortium, core and optional activities Organisation and governance Staffing resources and code-development Data policy and code ownership Branding of the new collaboration and system Part five Conclusion page33 Annexes page 35 Annex 1 – Scope and Term of Reference for HIRLAM-B External Review Annex 2 – Joint HIRLAM-ALADIN Declaration Annex 3 – List of acronyms External review of the HIRLAM-B programme, September 2015 Page 3 Summary The Review Team appointed by the HIRLAM Council examined the governance, resources and achievement of the HIRLAM-B programme. It reviewed the implementation of the recommendations made by the previous review team in 2010 at the end of HIRLAM-A. The HIRLAM cooperation has a long history and is now well organised. As a result the Review Team made few comments concerning HIRLAM in isolation from the wider collaboration with ALADIN. The review team also met forecasters in most of HIRLAM centers. Benefits of using regional high resolution model for short range forecasts, as compared to ECMWF global forecasts, is no longer questioned.
    [Show full text]
  • NAEFS Status and Future Plan
    NAEFS Status and Future Plan Yuejian Zhu Ensemble team leader Environmental Modeling Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA Presentation for International S2S conference February 14 2014 Warnings Warnings Coordination Coordination Assessments Forecasts Guidance Forecasts Guidance Watches Watches Outlook Outlook Threats & & Alert Alert Products Forecast Lead Time Minutes Minutes Life & Property NOAA Hours Hours Aviation Days Days Spanning 1 Maritime 1 Week Week Seamless 2 Space Operations 2 Week Week Fire Weather Fire Weather Months Months Emergency Mgmt Climate/Weather/Water Commerce Suite Benefits Seasons Seasons Energy Planning Hydropower of Reservoir Control Forecast O G O O H C U D R C R D Y L T P S Agriculture I Years Years Recreation Weather Prediction Climate Prediction Ecosystem Products Health Products Uncertainty ForecastForecast Uncertainty Forecast Uncertainty Environment Warnings Warnings Coordination Coordination Assessments Forecasts Guidance Forecasts Guidance Watches Watches Outlook Outlook Threats & & Alert Alert Forecast Lead Time Products Service CenterPerspective Minutes Minutes Life & Property NOAA Hours Hours Aviation Days Days 1 1 Maritime Spanning Week Week Seamless SPC 2 Space Operations 2 Week Week Fire Weather HPC Fire Weather Months Months Emergency Mgmt AWC Climate/Weather Climate OPC Commerce Suite Linkage Benefits Seasons Seasons SWPC Energy Planning CPC TPC Hydropower of and Reservoir Control Forecast Reservoir Control Fire WeatherOutlooks toDay8 Week 2HazardsAssessment Winter WeatherDeskDays1-3 Seasonal Predictions NDFD,
    [Show full text]
  • CFS Reanalysis Design
    Design of the 30-year NCEP CFSRR T382L64 Global Reanalysis and T126L64 Seasonal Reforecast Project (1979-2009) Suru Saha and Hua-Lu Pan, EMC/NCEP With Input from Stephen Lord, Mark Iredell, Shrinivas Moorthi, David Behringer, Ken Mitchell, Bob Kistler, Jack Woollen, Huug van den Dool, Catherine Thiaw and others Operational Daily CFS • 2 9-month coupled forecasts at 0000GMT • (1) GR2 (d-3) atmospheric initial condition • (2) Avg [GR2(d-3),GR2(d-4)] • T62L28S2 – MOM3 • GODAS (d-7) oceanic initial condition 2004 CFS Reforecasts The CFS includes a comprehensive set of retrospective runs that are used to calibrate and evaluate the skill of its forecasts. Each run is a full 9-month integration. The retrospective period covers all 12 calendar months in the 24 years from 1981 to 2004. Runs are initiated from 15 initial conditions that span each month, amounting to a total of 4320 runs. Since each run is a 9-month integration, the CFS was run for an equivalent of 3240 yr! An upgrade to the coupled atmosphere-ocean-seaice-land NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) is being planned for Jan 2010. Involves improvements to all data assimilation components of the CFS: • the atmosphere with the new NCEP Gridded Statistical Interpolation Scheme (GSI) and major improvements to the physics and dynamics of operational NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) • the ocean and ice with the NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System, (GODAS) and a new GFDL MOM4 Ocean Model • the land with the NCEP Global Land Data Assimilation System, (GLDAS) and a new NCEP Noah Land model For a new Climate Forecast System (CFS) implementation Two essential components: A new Reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, sea-ice and land over the 31-year period (1979-2009) is required to provide consistent initial conditions for: A complete Reforecast of the new CFS over the 28-year period (1982-2009), in order to provide stable calibration and skill estimates of the new system, for operational seasonal prediction at NCEP There are 4 differences with the earlier two NCEP Global Reanalysis efforts: 1.
    [Show full text]
  • 5Th International Conference on Reanalysis (ICR5)
    5th International Conference on Reanalysis (ICR5) 13–17 November 2017, Rome IMPLEMENTED BY Contents ECMWF | 5th International Conference on Reanalysis (ICR5) 2017 2 Introduction It is our pleasure to welcome the Climate research has benefited over the • Status and plans for future reanalyses • Evaluation of reanalyses reanalysis community at the 5th years from the continuing development Global and regional production, inclusive Comparisons with observations, other International Conference on Reanalysis of reanalysis. As reanalysis datasets of all WCRP thematic areas: atmosphere, types of analysis and models, inter- (ICR5). We are delighted that we are become more diverse (atmosphere, land, ocean and cryosphere – Session comparisons, diagnostics – Session all able to come together in Rome. ocean and land components), more organizers: Mike Bosilovich (NASA organizers: Franco Desiato (ISPRA), This five-day international conference complete (moving towards Earth-system GMAO), Shinya Kobayashi (JMA), Masatomo Fujiwara (Hokkaido is the worldwide leading event for the coupled reanalysis), more detailed, and Simona Masina (CMCC) University), Sonia Seneviratne (ETH), continuing development of reanalysis of longer timespan, community efforts Adrian Simmons (ECMWF) • Observations for reanalyses for climate research, which provides a to evaluate and intercompare them Preparation, organization in large • Applications of reanalyses comprehensive numerical description become more important. archives, data rescue, reanalysis Generating time-series of
    [Show full text]
  • Numerical Weather Prediction Basics: Models, Numerical Methods, and Data Assimilation
    Cite this entry as: Pu Z., Kalnay E. (2018) Numerical Weather Prediction Basics: Models, Numerical Methods, and Data Assimilation. In: Duan Q., Pappenberger F., Thielen J., Wood A., Cloke H., Schaake J. (eds) Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg Numerical Weather Prediction Basics: Models, Numerical Methods, and Data Assimilation Zhaoxia Pu and Eugenia Kalnay Contents 1 Introduction: Basic Concept and Historical Overview .. .................................... 2 2 NWP Models and Numerical Methods ...................................................... 4 2.1 Basic Equations ......................................................................... 4 2.2 Numerical Frameworks of NWP Model ............................................... 7 2.3 Global and Regional Models ........................................................... 12 2.4 Physical Parameterizations ............................................................. 13 2.5 Land-Surface and Ocean Models and Coupled Numerical Models in NWP . 18 3 Data Assimilation ............................................................................. 22 3.1 Least Squares Theory ................................................................... 22 3.2 Assimilation Methods .................................................................. 24 4 Recent Developments and Challenges ....................................................... 28 References ........................................................................................ 29 Abstract Numerical
    [Show full text]
  • Implementation of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) at 12Km Resolution
    ISSN 0252-1075 Contribution from IITM Technical Report No.TR-06 ESSO/IITM/MM/TR/02(2020)/200 Implementation of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) at 12km Resolution Medha Deshpande, C.J. Johny, Radhika Kanase, Snehlata Tirkey, Sahadat Sarkar, Tanmoy Goswami, Kumar Roy, Malay Ganai, R. Phani Murali Krishna, V.S. Prasad, P. Mukhopadhyay , V.R. Durai, Ravi S. Nanjundiah and M. Rajeevan Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) PUNE, INDIA http://www.tropmet.res.in/ ISSN 0252-1075 Contribution from IITM Technical Report No.TR-06 ESSO/IITM/MM/TR/02(2020)/200 Implementation of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) at 12km Resolution Medha Deshpande1, C.J. Johny2, RadhikaKanase1, Snehlata Tirkey1, Sahadat Sarkar1, Tanmoy Goswami1, Kumar Roy1, Malay Ganai1, R.Phani Murali Krishna1, V.S. Prasad2, P. Mukhopadhyay1 , V.R. Durai3, Ravi S. Nanjundiah1, 4and M. Rajeevan5 1 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Dr.Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune- 411008 2 National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Ministry of Earth Sciences, A-50, Sector-62, NOIDA, UP 3 India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Sciences,MausamBhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi 4 Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru - 560012 5 Ministry of Earth Science, Government of India, PrithviBhavan, New Delhi *Corresponding Author: Dr. P. Mukhopadhyay Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Dr.Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune-411008, India. E-mail: [email protected],
    [Show full text]
  • The Reanalysis for the Global Ensemble Forecast System, Version 12
    1 The Reanalysis for the Global Ensemble Forecast System, version 12. 2 Thomas M. Hamill1, Jeffrey S. Whitaker1, Anna Shlyaeva2, Gary Bates3, Sherrie Fredrick,3 Philip 3 Pegion3, Eric Sinsky6, Yuejian Zhu4, Vijay Tallapragada4, Hong Guan5, Xiaqiong Zhou4, and 4 Jack Woollen4 5 1 NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO 6 2 Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, 7 Boulder CO 8 3Cooperative Institute for Research in the Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, 9 Boulder CO 10 4National Weather Service, Environmental ModelinG Center, ColleGe Park, MD 11 5 SRG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, ColleGe Park, MD 12 6 IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, ColleGe Park, MD 13 Submitted to Monthly Weather Review (presumably) 14 9 February 2021 15 Corresponding author: 16 Dr. Thomas M. Hamill, 17 NOAA ESRL/PSL, R/PSL1 18 325 Broadway, Boulder CO 80305 19 [email protected] 20 phone: +1 (303) 497-3060 21 telefax: +1 (303) 497-6449 22 telework: +1 (303) 516-0340 23 1 24 ABSTRACT 25 NOAA has created a global reanalysis data set, intended primarily for initialization of 26 reforecasts for its Global Ensemble Forecast System, version 12 (GEFSv12), which 27 provides ensemble forecasts out to +35 days lead time. The reanalysis covers the period 28 2000-2019. It assimilates most of the observations that were assimilated into the 29 operational data assimilation system used for initializing global predictions. These include a 30 variety of conventional data, infrared and microwave radiances, Global Positioning System 31 radio occultations, and more. The reanalysis quality is generally superior to that from 32 NOAA’s previous-generation Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), demonstrated in 33 the fit of short-term forecasts to the observations and in the skill of 5-day deterministic 34 forecasts initialized from CFSR vs.
    [Show full text]
  • The Temporal Cascade Structure of Reanalyses and Global Circulation Models
    The temporal cascade structure of reanalyses and Global Circulation models J. Stolle1, S. Lovejoy1, D. Schertzer2,3 (1) Physics, McGill University, 3600 University St., Montreal, Que. H3A 2T8, Canada (2) CEREVE, Université Paris Est, France (3) Météo France, 1 Quai Branly, Paris 75005, France Correspondence to: J. Stolle ([email protected]), S. Lovejoy ([email protected]) Abstract The spatial stochastic structure of deterministic models of the atmosphere has recently been shown to be well modelled by multiplicative cascade processes; in this paper we extend this to the time domain. Using data from reanalyses (ERA 40) and two meteorological models (GFS, GEM), we investigate the temporal cascade structures of the temperature, humidity, and zonal wind at various altitudes, latitudes, and forecast times. First, we estimate turbulent fluxes from the absolute second order time differences, showing that the fluxes are generally very close to those estimated in space at the model dissipation scale; thus validating the flux estimates. We then show that temporal cascades with outer scales typically in the range 5-20 days can accurately account for the statistical properties over the range from six hours up to 3-5 days. We quantify the (typically small) differences in the cascades from model to model, as functions of latitude, altitude and forecast time. By normalizing the moments by the theoretical predictions for universal multifractals, we investigate the “Levy collapse” of the statistics somewhat beyond the outer cascade limit into the low frequency weather regime. Although the due to finite size effects and the small outer temporal scale, the temporal scaling range is narrow (12-24 hours up to 2-5 days), we compare the spatial and temporal statistics by constructing space-time (Stommel) diagrammes, finding space-time transformation velocities of 450 - 1000 km/day, comparable to those predicted based on the solar energy flux driving the system.
    [Show full text]