NAEFS Status and Future Plan

Yuejian Zhu

Ensemble team leader Environmental Modeling Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA

Presentation for International S2S conference

February 14 2014 NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate/Weather/Water

Years Forecast Uncertainty Outlook Seasons

Guidance Months H Y Climate Prediction Threats 2 Week D R Products TimeTime O

Assessments L 1 Week O

LeadLead G Forecasts I C Days P Weather Prediction R

Watches ForecastForecast O Products Hours D U Warnings & Alert C T Coordination Minutes S

Benefits

MgmtMgmt Mgmt

HealthHealth Health ControlControl Control AviationAviation Aviation

Weather Weather Property Property Weather Property MaritimeMaritime Maritime Planning Planning

Planning

RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem Agriculture Agriculture Recreation CommerceCommerce Ecosystem Agriculture Commerce & & &

OperationsOperations

Operations

HydropowerHydropower Hydropower Environment Environment Environment Fire Fire Fire Life Life Life Energy Energy Energy EmergencyEmergency Emergency SpaceSpace ReservoirReservoir Space Reservoir NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather

Service Center Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Outlook Seasons Seasonal Predictions Guidance Months CPC Week 2 Hazards Assessment Threats 2 Week Climate/Weather TimeTime

Assessments 6-10 Day Forecast Linkage 1 Week LeadLead NDFD, Days 4 -7 Forecasts Days HPC OPC TPC Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3

Watches ForecastForecast Hours SPC AWC SWPC Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Warnings & Alert Coordination Minutes Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : Benefits

MgmtMgmt Mgmt

HealthHealth Health ControlControl Control AviationAviation Aviation

Weather Weather

Property Property Weather Property MaritimeMaritime Maritime Planning Planning

Planning

RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem Agriculture Agriculture Recreation CommerceCommerce Ecosystem Agriculture Commerce & & &

OperationsOperations

Operations

HydropowerHydropower Hydropower Environment Environment Environment FireFire Fire Life Life Life Energy Energy Energy EmergencyEmergency Emergency SpaceSpace ReservoirReservoir Space Reservoir NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather

NCEP Model Perspective Years Forecast Uncertainty Outlook Seasons

Guidance Months Guidance Climate Forecast System* Threats 2 Week North American Ensemble Climate/Weather TimeTime

Assessments Forecast System Linkage 1 Week LeadLead Forecasts Global Forecast System Days Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model

Watches ForecastForecast North American Forecast Hurricane Models Hours Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation -GFDL Warnings & Alert Dispersion Models for DHS Coordination Minutes -WRF

Benefits

MgmtMgmt Mgmt

HealthHealth Health ControlControl Control AviationAviation Aviation

Weather Weather

Property Property Weather Property MaritimeMaritime Maritime Planning Planning

Planning

RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem Agriculture Agriculture Recreation CommerceCommerce Ecosystem Agriculture Commerce & & &

OperationsOperations

Operations

HydropowerHydropower Hydropower Environment Environment Environment FireFire Fire Life Life Life Energy Energy Energy EmergencyEmergency Emergency SpaceSpace ReservoirReservoir Space Reservoir North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)

International project to produce operational multi‐ center ensemble products

Bias correction and combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA

Generates products for: Weather forecasters Specialized users End users

Operational outlet for THORPEX research using TIGGE archive Statement

The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) combines state of the art weather forecast tools, called ensemble forecasts, developed at the US National Weather Service (NWS) and the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC). When combined, these tools (a) provide weather forecast guidance for the 1‐14 day period that is of higher quality than the currently available operational guidance based on either of the two sets of tools separately; and (b) make a set of forecasts that are seamless across the national boundaries over North America, between Mexico and the US, and between the US and Canada. As a first step in the development of the NAEFS system, the two ensemble generating centers, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of NWS and the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) of MSC started exchanging their ensemble forecast data on the operational basis in September 2004. First NAEFS probabilistic products have been implemented at NCEP in February 2006. The enhanced weather forecast products are generated based on the joint ensemble which has been undergone a statistical post‐processing to reduce their systematic errors. NAEFS Milestones • Implementations – First NAEFS implementation –bias correction –IOC, May 30 2006 Version 1 – NAEFS follow up implementation –CONUS downscaling ‐ December 4 2007 Version 2 – Alaska implementation –Alaska downscaling ‐ December 7 2010 Version 3 – Implementation for CONUS/Alaska expansion –Q2FY14 Version 4 • Applications of NAEFS Statistical Post‐Processing: – NCEP/GEFS and NAEFS –at NWS – CMC/GEFS and NAEFS –at MSC – FNMOC/GEFS –at NAVY – NCEP/SREF –at NWS • Publications (or references): – Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and D. Hou, D. Unger, and S. Beauregard, 2004: “ The Trade‐off in Bias Correction between Using the Latest Analysis/Modeling System with a Short, versus an Older System with a Long Archive” The First THORPEX International Science Symposium. December 6‐10, 2004, Montréal, Canada, World Meteorological Organization, P281‐284. – Zhu, Y., and B. Cui, 2006: “GFS bias correction” [Document is available online] – Zhu, Y., B. Cui, and Z. Toth, 2007: “December 2007 upgrade of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)” [Document is available online] – Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu and D. Hou, 2012: "Bias Correction For Global Ensemble Forecast" Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 27 396‐410 – Cui, B., Y. Zhu , Z. Toth and D. Hou, 2013: "Development of Statistical Post‐processor for NAEFS” Weather and Forecasting (In process) – Zhu, Y., and B. Cui, 2007: “December 2007 upgrade of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)” [Document is available online] – Zhu, Y, and Y. Luo, 2013: “Precipitation Calibration Based on Frequency Matching Method (FMM)”. Weather and Forecasting (in process) – Glahn, B., 2013: “A Comparison of Two Methods of Bias Correcting MOS Temperature and Dewpoint Forecasts” MDL office note, 13‐1 NAEFS Current Status Updated: February 13 2013

NCEP CMC NAEFS Model GFS GEM NCEP+CMC Initial uncertainty ETR EnKF ETR + EnKF Model Yes (Stochastic Pert) Yes (multi-physics Yes uncertainty/Stochastic and stochastic) Tropical storm Relocation None Daily frequency 00,06,12 and 18UTC 00 and 12UTC 00 and 12UTC Resolution T254L42 (d0-d8)~55km 600*300 (66km) 1*1 degree T190L42 (d8-16)~70km L72 Control Yes Yes Yes (2) Ensemble members 20 for each cycle 20 for each cycle 40 for each cycle Forecast length 16 days (384 hours) 16 days (384 hours) 16 days Post-process Bias correction Bias correction Yes (same bias for all for each member members)

Last implementation February 14th 2012 February 13 2013 8 NCEP/GEFS raw forecast

4+ days gain from NAEFS

NAEFS final products

From Bias correction (NCEP, CMC) Dual-resolution (NCEP only) Down-scaling (NCEP, CMC) Combination of NCEP and CMC

9 NCEP/GEFS raw forecast

8+ days gain

NAEFS final products

From Bias correction (NCEP, CMC) Dual-resolution (NCEP only) Down-scaling (NCEP, CMC) Combination of NCEP and CMC

10

NH Anomaly Correlation for 500hPa Height Period: January 1st – December 31st 2012

GFS –8.0d GEFS – 9.5d

NAEFS – 9.85d Summary of 6th NAEFS workshop 1‐3 May, 2012 Monterey, CA

6th NAEFS workshop was held in Monterey, CA during 1‐3 May 2012. There were about 50 scientists to attend this workshop whose are from Meteorological Service of Canada, Mexico Meteorological Service, UKMet, NAVY, AFWA and NOAA.

Following topics have been presented and discussed during workshop: •Review the current status of the contribution of each NWP center to NAEFS •For each NWP center, present plans for future model and product updates, for both the base models and ensemble system (including regional ensembles) •Decide on coordination of plans for the overall future NAEFS ensemble and products (added variables, data transfer for increased resolution grids, FNMOC ensemble added to NAEFS, especially for mesoscale ensemble‐NAEFS‐LAM) •Learn about current operational uses of ensemble forecast guidance, including military and civilian applications. NUOPC –National Unified Operational Prediction Capability

NUOPC (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability) is an agreement to coordinate activities between the Department of Commerce (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the Department of Defense (Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy and Air Force Directorate of Weather), in order to accelerate the transition of new technology, eliminate unnecessary duplication, and achieve a superior National global prediction capability.

The NUOPC partners determined that the Nation’s global atmospheric modeling capability can be advanced more effectively and efficiently with their mutual cooperation to provide a common infrastructure to perform and support their individual missions.

The NUOPC Tri‐Agency (NOAA, Navy, Air Force) agreed to work on a collaborative vision through coordinated research, transition and operations in order to develop and implement the next‐ generation National Operational Global Ensemble modeling system.

14 10‐day forecast

AC score CRPS

Northern Hemisphere 500hPa height:

30‐day running mean scores of day‐10 CRPS skill score RMS error and ratio of RMS error / spread Anomaly correlation

RMS error All other regions could be seen from: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yluo/na efs/VRFY_STATS/T30_P500HGT Research and Operational Applications In Multi-Center Ensemble Forecasting

Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth (NCEP) Acknowledgements: Glenn Rutledge (NCDC), Andre Methot (MSC), Michel Rosengaus (NMSM), Dan Collins, Bo Cui, Richard Wobus(NCEP)

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/index.html 16 NAEFS & THORPEX • Expands international collaboration – Mexico joined in November 2004 – FNMOC joined in 2009 (NUOPC) • Provides framework for transitioning research into operations – Prototype for ensemble component of THORPEX legacy forecast system: – Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS)

THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) Transfers Articulates New methods operational needs North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) Future Seamless Forecast System NCEP/GEFS is running on T254L42 resolution with tuned ETR initial perturbations and adjusted STTP Main products: scheme for 21 ensemble members, forecast out to 16 days and 4 cycles per day, planning to extended to 45 days at lower horizontal ENSO predictions??? resolution, 00UTC only (coupled). NAEFS will consider to include FNMOC ensemble in the future, Main event Seasonal forecast??? with improving post process which include MJO bias correction, dual resolution and down scaling

GEFS/NAEFS service CFS service

week-1 week-2 one month Weather/Climate linkage SEAMLESS

Main products: Operational CFS has been implemented in 1. Probabilistic forecasts for every 2011 with T126L64 atmospheric model 6-hr out to 16 days, 4 times per The quality of resolution (CFSv2, 2010version) which is fully day: 10%, 50%, 90%, ensemble NAEFS week‐2 coupled with land, ocean and atmosphere mean, mode and spread. forecast (GFS+MOM4+NOAH), 4 members per day 2. D6-10, week-2 temperature and Has been (using CFS reanalysis as initial conditions, precipitation probabilistic mean confirmed by one day older?), integrate out to 9 months. forecasts for above, below CPC normal and normal forecast IMME and NMME - ??? 3. MJO forecast (week 3 & 4 … ) 18 Courtesy of Drs. Pena and Zhang Reforecast ‐ the facts and expectations • 25+ years GEFS reforecast data are available for testing and applications. – It is the same model/resolutions as current operational GEFS – Once per day at 00UTC, 11 members only

• The values have been demonstrated: – Overall benefits: mainly studied for surface temperature and precipitation – ESRL/PSD – Improving the reliabilities and skills of 6‐10 days, week‐2’s temperature and precipitation forecast – CPC, ESPL/PSD – Help to enhance the ability of extreme forecast, hazard outlook and precipitation guidance – WPC, ESRL/PSD – Improving extended range temperature forecast for transition seasons (Spring and Fall mainly) through comparing current NAEFS SPP products – EMC – Improving precipitation forecast accuracy and reliability; applications of analog QPF/PQPF and model climatology via “extreme forecast index” – WR/regions, ESRL/PSD

• Expectations from users – Running in real time when the model upgrade – Optimum configuration to minimize the cost, maximize the benefits – Special session discussion in Dec. 2013 (NPSV) – Will discuss in coming “6th NCEP Ensemble User Workshop” Future Plans

• Improving numerical forecast system – Resolutions – Initial perturbations – Model uncertainties (include surface perturbations) • NAEFS extension – Increasing memberships (and models) – Extended to 30 days to cover week 3&4 – Coupling ocean‐atmosphere • Post processing – Real time reforecast – Improving methodologies – Higher moment calibration • International collaboration – THORPEX legacy ‐ S2S, GIFS‐TIGGE(?) – Other centers Background !!! NUOPC Current Status Updated: February 13 2013 NCEP CMC FNMOC Model GFS GEM Global Spectrum Initial uncertainty ETR EnKF (9) Banded ET Model uncertainty Yes (STTP) Yes (multi-physics and None Stochastic Stochastic) Tropical storm Relocation None None Daily frequency 00,06,12 and 18UTC 00 and 12UTC 00 and 12UTC Resolution T254L42 (d0-d8)~55km 600*300 (66km) T159L42 ~ 80km T190L42 (d8-16)~70km L72 Control Yes Yes No Ensemble 20 for each cycle 20 for each cycle 20 for each cycle members Forecast length 16 days (384 hours) 16 days (384 hours) 16 days (384 hours) Post-process Bias correction for Bias correction for Bias correction for ensemble mean each member member mean Last February 14 2012 February 13 2013 NAVGEM implementation implementation on February 13 2013 NH Anomaly Correlation for 500hPa Height Period: January 1st – December 31st 2013

GFS –8.08d GEFS – 9.39d

NAEFS – 9.76d

Need to make up GFS scores later