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NAEFS Status and Future Plan NAEFS Status and Future Plan Yuejian Zhu Ensemble team leader Environmental Modeling Center NCEP/NWS/NOAA Presentation for International S2S conference February 14 2014 Warnings Warnings Coordination Coordination Assessments Forecasts Guidance Forecasts Guidance Watches Watches Outlook Outlook Threats & & Alert Alert Products Forecast Lead Time Minutes Minutes Life & Property NOAA Hours Hours Aviation Days Days Spanning 1 Maritime 1 Week Week Seamless 2 Space Operations 2 Week Week Fire Weather Fire Weather Months Months Emergency Mgmt Climate/Weather/Water Commerce Suite Benefits Seasons Seasons Energy Planning Hydropower of Reservoir Control Forecast O G O O H C U D R C R D Y L T P S Agriculture I Years Years Recreation Weather Prediction Climate Prediction Ecosystem Products Health Products Uncertainty ForecastForecast Uncertainty Forecast Uncertainty Environment Warnings Warnings Coordination Coordination Assessments Forecasts Guidance Forecasts Guidance Watches Watches Outlook Outlook Threats & & Alert Alert Forecast Lead Time Products Service CenterPerspective Minutes Minutes Life & Property NOAA Hours Hours Aviation Days Days 1 1 Maritime Spanning Week Week Seamless SPC 2 Space Operations 2 Week Week Fire Weather HPC Fire Weather Months Months Emergency Mgmt AWC Climate/Weather Climate OPC Commerce Suite Linkage Benefits Seasons Seasons SWPC Energy Planning CPC TPC Hydropower of and Reservoir Control Forecast Reservoir Control Fire WeatherOutlooks toDay8 Week 2HazardsAssessment Winter WeatherDeskDays1-3 Seasonal Predictions NDFD, Days 4-7 NDFD, Days 6-10 DayForecast Agriculture Tropical Storms toDay5 Severe Weather toDay8 Weather Years Years Recreation Ecosystem Health : Uncertainty ForecastForecast Uncertainty Forecast Uncertainty Environment Warnings Warnings Coordination Coordination Assessments Forecasts Guidance Forecasts Guidance Watches Watches Outlook Outlook Threats & & Alert Alert Forecast Lead Time Products NCEP Model Perspective NCEP Model Minutes Minutes Life & Property NWS Hours Hours Aviation Days Days 1 1 Maritime Spanning Seamless Week Week 2 Space Operations 2 Week Week Fire Weather Fire Weather Months Months Rapid Update Cycle forAviation Rapid UpdateCycle Emergency Mgmt Forecast Short-Range Ensemble Dispersion Models forDHS Climate North AmericanForecast Suite North AmericanEnsemble Global ForecastSystem Commerce Benefits Seasons Seasons Energy Planning Forecast System of Hydropower and Forecast Reservoir Control Climate ForecastSystem* Agriculture Weather Years Years Recreation Ecosystem Health Hurricane Models Ocean Model Climate/Weather Uncertainty ForecastForecast Uncertainty Forecast Uncertainty Environment -WRF -GFDL Linkage North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) International project to produce operational multi‐ center ensemble products Bias correction and combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA Generates products for: Weather forecasters Specialized users End users Operational outlet for THORPEX research using TIGGE archive Statement The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) combines state of the art weather forecast tools, called ensemble forecasts, developed at the US National Weather Service (NWS) and the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC). When combined, these tools (a) provide weather forecast guidance for the 1‐14 day period that is of higher quality than the currently available operational guidance based on either of the two sets of tools separately; and (b) make a set of forecasts that are seamless across the national boundaries over North America, between Mexico and the US, and between the US and Canada. As a first step in the development of the NAEFS system, the two ensemble generating centers, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of NWS and the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) of MSC started exchanging their ensemble forecast data on the operational basis in September 2004. First NAEFS probabilistic products have been implemented at NCEP in February 2006. The enhanced weather forecast products are generated based on the joint ensemble which has been undergone a statistical post‐processing to reduce their systematic errors. NAEFS Milestones • Implementations – First NAEFS implementation –bias correction –IOC, May 30 2006 Version 1 – NAEFS follow up implementation –CONUS downscaling ‐ December 4 2007 Version 2 – Alaska implementation –Alaska downscaling ‐ December 7 2010 Version 3 – Implementation for CONUS/Alaska expansion –Q2FY14 Version 4 • Applications of NAEFS Statistical Post‐Processing: – NCEP/GEFS and NAEFS –at NWS – CMC/GEFS and NAEFS –at MSC – FNMOC/GEFS –at NAVY – NCEP/SREF –at NWS • Publications (or references): – Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu, and D. Hou, D. Unger, and S. Beauregard, 2004: “ The Trade‐off in Bias Correction between Using the Latest Analysis/Modeling System with a Short, versus an Older System with a Long Archive” The First THORPEX International Science Symposium. December 6‐10, 2004, Montréal, Canada, World Meteorological Organization, P281‐284. – Zhu, Y., and B. Cui, 2006: “GFS bias correction” [Document is available online] – Zhu, Y., B. Cui, and Z. Toth, 2007: “December 2007 upgrade of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)” [Document is available online] – Cui, B., Z. Toth, Y. Zhu and D. Hou, 2012: "Bias Correction For Global Ensemble Forecast" Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 27 396‐410 – Cui, B., Y. Zhu , Z. Toth and D. Hou, 2013: "Development of Statistical Post‐processor for NAEFS” Weather and Forecasting (In process) – Zhu, Y., and B. Cui, 2007: “December 2007 upgrade of the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS)” [Document is available online] – Zhu, Y, and Y. Luo, 2013: “Precipitation Calibration Based on Frequency Matching Method (FMM)”. Weather and Forecasting (in process) – Glahn, B., 2013: “A Comparison of Two Methods of Bias Correcting MOS Temperature and Dewpoint Forecasts” MDL office note, 13‐1 NAEFS Current Status Updated: February 13 2013 NCEP CMC NAEFS Model GFS GEM NCEP+CMC Initial uncertainty ETR EnKF ETR + EnKF Model Yes (Stochastic Pert) Yes (multi-physics Yes uncertainty/Stochastic and stochastic) Tropical storm Relocation None Daily frequency 00,06,12 and 18UTC 00 and 12UTC 00 and 12UTC Resolution T254L42 (d0-d8)~55km 600*300 (66km) 1*1 degree T190L42 (d8-16)~70km L72 Control Yes Yes Yes (2) Ensemble members 20 for each cycle 20 for each cycle 40 for each cycle Forecast length 16 days (384 hours) 16 days (384 hours) 16 days Post-process Bias correction Bias correction Yes (same bias for all for each member members) Last implementation February 14th 2012 February 13 2013 8 NCEP/GEFS raw forecast 4+ days gain from NAEFS NAEFS final products From Bias correction (NCEP, CMC) Dual-resolution (NCEP only) Down-scaling (NCEP, CMC) Combination of NCEP and CMC 9 NCEP/GEFS raw forecast 8+ days gain NAEFS final products From Bias correction (NCEP, CMC) Dual-resolution (NCEP only) Down-scaling (NCEP, CMC) Combination of NCEP and CMC 10 NH Anomaly Correlation for 500hPa Height Period: January 1st – December 31st 2012 GFS –8.0d GEFS – 9.5d NAEFS – 9.85d Summary of 6th NAEFS workshop 1‐3 May, 2012 Monterey, CA 6th NAEFS workshop was held in Monterey, CA during 1‐3 May 2012. There were about 50 scientists to attend this workshop whose are from Meteorological Service of Canada, Mexico Meteorological Service, UKMet, NAVY, AFWA and NOAA. Following topics have been presented and discussed during workshop: •Review the current status of the contribution of each NWP center to NAEFS •For each NWP center, present plans for future model and product updates, for both the base models and ensemble system (including regional ensembles) •Decide on coordination of plans for the overall future NAEFS ensemble and products (added variables, data transfer for increased resolution grids, FNMOC ensemble added to NAEFS, especially for mesoscale ensemble‐NAEFS‐LAM) •Learn about current operational uses of ensemble forecast guidance, including military and civilian applications. NUOPC –National Unified Operational Prediction Capability NUOPC (National Unified Operational Prediction Capability) is an agreement to coordinate activities between the Department of Commerce (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the Department of Defense (Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy and Air Force Directorate of Weather), in order to accelerate the transition of new technology, eliminate unnecessary duplication, and achieve a superior National global prediction capability. The NUOPC partners determined that the Nation’s global atmospheric modeling capability can be advanced more effectively and efficiently with their mutual cooperation to provide a common infrastructure to perform and support their individual missions. The NUOPC Tri‐Agency (NOAA, Navy, Air Force) agreed to work on a collaborative vision through coordinated research, transition and operations in order to develop and implement the next‐ generation National Operational Global Ensemble modeling system. 14 10‐day forecast AC score CRPS Northern Hemisphere 500hPa height: 30‐day running mean scores of day‐10 CRPS skill score RMS error and ratio of RMS error / spread Anomaly correlation RMS error All other regions could be seen from: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/yluo/na efs/VRFY_STATS/T30_P500HGT Research and Operational Applications In Multi-Center Ensemble Forecasting Yuejian Zhu and Zoltan Toth (NCEP) Acknowledgements: Glenn Rutledge (NCDC), Andre Methot (MSC), Michel Rosengaus (NMSM), Dan Collins, Bo Cui, Richard Wobus(NCEP)
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