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Iraq's Dilemma: the Uncertain Future of the Popular Mobilization Forces

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Iraq's Dilemma: the Uncertain Future of the Popular Mobilization Forces Situation Assessement | 11 September 2019 Iraq’s Dilemma: The Uncertain Future of the Popular Mobilization Forces Unit for Political Studies Iraq’s Dilemma: Te Unerrtain Future o rte opular obilization Force Series: Situation Assessement 11 September 2019 Unit for Political Studies Te Unir for Polirinal Studies is the Center’s deoarrment dedinared to the study of the region’s m sr oressiUg current affairs. UA integral aUd viral oarr of the ACR S’ activiries, ir ffers anademinally rig rous aUalysis on issFes thar are relevant aUd Fseful to the publin, anademins aUd poliny-makers of the Arao region aUd oeyond. Te Unir for Polirinal Studie draws on the collaborarive eff rrs of a numoer of scholars oased withiU aUd outside the ACR S. Ir or dFnes three of the Center’s publinarion series: Assessment Reporr, Poliny AUalysis, aUd Case AUalysis reporrs. Copyright © 2019 Arao Center for Research aUd Poliny Studies. All Rights Reserved. Te Arao Center for Research aUd Poliny Studies is aU iUdeoeUdent research iUsritute aUd thiUk raUk for the study of tistory aUd social sniences, with oarricular emphasis on the applied social sniences. Te Center’s oaramount concerU is the advancement of Arao socieries aUd srares, their cooperarion with one another aUd issFes concerUiUg the Arao Uarion iU geUeral. T thar eUd, ir seeks to examiUe aUd diagnose the situarion iU the Arao w rld - srares aUd commFUiries- to aUalyie social, economin aUd cultural polinies aUd to or vide polirinal aUalysis, or m aU Arao oersoective. Te Center publistes iU both Araoin aUd EUglist iU rder to make irs w rk accessiole to both Arao aUd non- Arao researchers. Te Arao Center for Research aUd Poliny Studies Al-Taroa Srreer, Wadi Al BaUar Al-DayaeU, Qarar O B x 10277, Doha +974 4035 4111 www.dohaiUsritute. rg Iraq’s Dilemma: Te Unerrtain Future o rte opular obilization Force Series: Situation Assessement Table of Contents 11 September 2019 ike Pomoe ’s Visir aUd TetraU’s Response . 1 Contradictions aUd Irs Relarionstio with the Srare . 2 Unit for Political Studies Te Unir for Polirinal Studies is the Center’s deoarrment dedinared to the study of the region’s m sr oressiUg current Divisions . 2 affairs. UA integral aUd viral oarr of the ACR S’ activiries, ir ffers anademinally rig rous aUalysis on issFes thar are relevant aUd Fseful to the publin, anademins aUd poliny-makers of the Arao region aUd oeyond. Te Unir for Polirinal r xy Wars . 3 Studie draws on the collaborarive eff rrs of a numoer of scholars oased withiU aUd outside the ACR S. Ir or dFnes three of the Center’s publinarion series: Assessment Reporr, Poliny AUalysis, aUd Case AUalysis reporrs. Te all of the ? . 3 AodFl atdi’s Polirins . 4 Copyright © 2019 Arao Center for Research aUd Poliny Studies. All Rights Reserved. Te Arao Center for Research aUd Poliny Studies is aU iUdeoeUdent research iUsritute aUd thiUk raUk for the study of tistory aUd social sniences, with oarricular emphasis on the applied social sniences. Te Center’s oaramount concerU is the advancement of Arao socieries aUd srares, their cooperarion with one another aUd issFes concerUiUg the Arao Uarion iU geUeral. T thar eUd, ir seeks to examiUe aUd diagnose the situarion iU the Arao w rld - srares aUd commFUiries- to aUalyie social, economin aUd cultural polinies aUd to or vide polirinal aUalysis, or m aU Arao oersoective. Te Center publistes iU both Araoin aUd EUglist iU rder to make irs w rk accessiole to both Arao aUd non- Arao researchers. Te Arao Center for Research aUd Poliny Studies Al-Taroa Srreer, Wadi Al BaUar Al-DayaeU, Qarar O B x 10277, Doha +974 4035 4111 www.dohaiUsritute. rg Iraq’s Dilemma: Te Unerrtain Future o rte opular obilization Force Te Popular Mobiliiarion Fornes ( ) iU Iraq tave seeU s me of their oactions sporadinally attanked iU renent weeks, with Israel oelieved to oe the aggress r. Tis tas oeeU coupled with S oressFre to olane these fornes FUder the contr l of the Iraqi g verUment aUd stield them or m IraUiaU iUflFence. Te attanks tave soarked oears among Iraqi poliriniaUs aUd ffinials thar Iraq could oecome aU areUa for a S-Israeli conflict agaiUsr IraU. Ir als oropelled the issFe of the future of these oactions to the foreoront aUd raised qFesrions about the aoiliry of rime iUisrer Adel AodFl- atdi to continue attempts to appease all oarries, ar a rime of mountiUg S aUd IraUiaU oressFre for tim to rake a nlear sraUd. Mike Pompeo’s Visit and Tehran’s Response Foll wiUg aU FUannounced visir oy S Senrerary of Srare ike Pomoe to Bagtdad iU ay 2019, FUirs oegaU to oe rargered. AccordiUg to various sournes, Pomoe disnl sed informarion to rime iUisrer Adel AodFl atdi about missiles thar IraU tad rraUsoerred to FUirs, s me of wtich boasr a 700km raUge. Tis development comor mises Iraq’s Ueutraliry iU the conflict oerweeU TetraU aUd WastiUgton. Pomoe threareUed thar io Iraq did not rem ve the missiles, they would oe desrr yed.(1) Ir is oelieved thar these oressFres were oetiUd AodFl atdi’s denision, iU early JFly 2019, to issFe a derailed denree to integrare milirias into the armed fornes. Te denree sripulares the abolirion of raUks aUd the nl sFre of their ffines iU various niries aUd the rraUsoer of their weapons to milirary namos outside FroaU areas, as well as sreos to achieve a gradFal integrarion of the entire withiU the regFlar fornes. AodFl atdi denlared thar te aims to orotect the or m interUal aUd exrerUal oroblems, nlearly allFdiUg to the oressFre on the g verUment accomoaUyiUg the esnalarion of the S-IraUiaU nrisis.(2) Althougt m sr oactions tave ar leasr veroally eUd rsed AodFl atdi’s denree, aU Iraqi FUir nl se to IraU, the Hezbollat Brigades, issFed a srarement on JFly 4, 2019 denounciUg the g verUment’s posirion aUd sFggesriUg a S consoirany agaiUsr the .(3) Atead of the 30 JFly 2019 deadliUe ser oy AodFl atdi to imolement tis denree, chairmaU alit Aloayyadt asked for aU addirional rw months to enforne the measFres, revealiUg thar s me oactions tad rejected the g verUment’s olaU iU aU attempt to gaiU m re rime. A oew days larer however further comolinarions iU the relarionstio oerweeU the milirias aUd the Bagtdad g verUment ar se. Ar the oeginniUg of AFgFsr 2019, TetraU exaggeraredly neleorared the visir of leaders of the NFjaoa Movement, another or miUent Iraqi miliria, iU wtich seUi r leaders said dFriUg meeriUgs with IraUiaU leaders such as Ali Akoar Velayari, aU advis r to the Supreme Leader thar the oactions could verthr w AodFl atdi’s g verUment withiU rw weeks.(4) Ooservers considered this as a message or m TetraU respondiUg to AodFl- atdi’s m ves, desoire the orime miUisrer oeiUg seeU as keeU to nalm the IraUiaUs, eveU io this aUgers tis S ally. 1 “Pomoe orieos Iraqi leaders on .S. securiry concerUs ver IraU,” Reuters, 7/5/2019, accessed on 9/9/2019, ar: https://reut.rs/2lLDm2 2 "AodFl atdi resrructures the iU Iraqi", Asharq al-Awsat, 2/7/2019, accessed 9/9/2019, ar: http://oir.ly/2lEAG7g 3 " r -IraUiaU IUsFrrection: Refusal to bow d wU to the Iraqi Army C mmaUd," The New Arab, 8/7/2019, accessed 9/9/2019 ar: http://oir.ly/2koB6tK 4 "Al-NFjaoa m vement threareUs to verthr w the Iraqi g verUment io ir acts agaiUsr IraU," Sputnik Arabic, 6/8/2019, accessed 9/9/2019 ar: http://oir.ly/2lJ oqe 1 Situation Assessement | 11 September 2019 PMF Contradictions and Its Relationship with the State N sooner tad the delegarion of the NFjaoa m vement returUed or m TetraU on 6 AFgFsr thaU aU exol sion iU the Abu Dstir area south of Bagtdad tir a warehouse storiUg missiles oelongiUg to the milirias, amid rFm rs ver Israel’s r le iU bomoiUg the sire aUd the ryoe of weapons Fsed. Ar the same rime, the leader of the NFjaoa Movement, YFsFo al-Nasseri, nalled for the diss lution of the Iraqi army, nalliUg tim a “merneUary,” demaUdiUg to rely only on the to orotect the country. Tis led to widesoread condemUarion, or mptiUg m sr leaders to dis wU these srarements. eaUwtile, the leader of the NFjaoa m vement YousFo al-Nasseri nalled for the Iraqi army to oe diss lved, desnrioiUg ir as a “merneUary” forne aUd demaUded s le reliance on the to orotect the country. Tis led to widesoread condemUarion, with m sr leaders dis wUiUg these srarements.(5) Divisions tave appeared to emerge withiU the ver the IraU sraUd ff along with concerU ver the increasiUg oreqFency with wtich oactions tave oeeU rargered, oeginniUg iU Amirli, south of KirkFk aUd Diyala, adjanent to the IraUiaU border on 19 aUd 28 JFly 2019 resoectively. Te bomoiUgs of namos Uear the Balad airoase north of Bagtdad on 20 AFgFsr 2019 nlearly demonsrrared the exisrence of these divisions. Te deputy chair of the , nl se to TetraU, Abu atdi al-MuhaUdis, tas exolinirly accused the Unired Srares aUd Israel of oeiUg oetiUd them, threareUiUg to respond with “m re sophisrinared weapons”.(6) Te foll wiUg day, chairmaU alit Aloayyadt issFed a srarement iU wtich te disav wed the posirion of tis deputy, aUd resrricted srarements on the matter to the rime iUisrer r tis delegare. Tis was considered a direct ol w to al-MuhaUdis, who eUj ys widesoread iUflFence iU Bagtdad aUd is rreared as a reoresentarive of Qasem S leimaUi, commaUder of the QFds Forne iU the IraUiaU Rev lutionary GFard.
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