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Evidence from Covid-19 Pandemic
RISK PERCEPTIONS AND PROTECTIVE BEHAVIORS: EVIDENCE FROM COVID-19 PANDEMIC Maria Polyakova M. Kate Bundorf Duke University Stanford University & NBER & NBER Jill DeMatteis Jialu L. Streeter Westat Stanford University Grant Miller Jonathan Wivagg Stanford University Westat & NBER April, 2021 Working Paper No. 21-022 Risk Perceptions and Protective Behaviors: Evidence from COVID-19 Pandemic.∗ M. Kate Bundorf Jill DeMatteis Grant Miller Maria Polyakova Duke University Westat Stanford University Stanford University and NBER and NBER and NBER Jialu L. Streeter Jonathan Wivagg Stanford University Westat April 28, 2021 Abstract We analyze data from a survey we administered during the COVID-19 pandemic to investigate the relationship between people's subjective risk beliefs and their protective behaviors. We report three main findings. First, on average, people substantially overestimate the absolute level of risk associated with economic activity, but have correct signals about their relative risk. Second, people who believe that they face a higher risk of infection are more likely to report avoiding economic activities. Third, government mandates restricting economic behavior attenuate the relationship between subjective risk beliefs and protective behaviors. ∗Corresponding author: Maria Polyakova ([email protected]). We are grateful to Sarah B¨ogland Aava Farhadi for excellent research assistance. We have made the de-identified survey dataset used in this manuscript available at the following link. We gratefully acknowledge in-kind survey support from Westat. 1 1 Introduction Subjective perceptions of risk guide decision making in nearly all economic domains (Hurd, 2009). While a rich theoretical literature highlights the importance of subjective beliefs for individual ac- tions, fewer studies provide empirical evidence of the link between risk perceptions and behaviors, particularly in non-laboratory settings and in high-income countries (Peltzman, 1975; Delavande, 2014; Delavande and Kohler, 2015; Mueller et al., 2021). -
19 International Workshop on Low Temperature Detectors
19th International Workshop on Low Temperature Detectors Program version 1.24 - British Summer Time 1 Date Time Session Monday 19 July 14:00 - 14:15 Introduction and Welcome 14:15 - 15:15 Oral O1: Devices 1 15:15 - 15:25 Break 15:25 - 16:55 Oral O1: Devices 1 (continued) 16:55 - 17:05 Break 17:05 - 18:00 Poster P1: MKIDs and TESs 1 Tuesday 20 July 14:00 - 15:15 Oral O2: Cold Readout 15:15 - 15:25 Break 15:25 - 16:55 Oral O2: Cold Readout (continued) 16:55 - 17:05 Break 17:05 - 18:30 Poster P2: Readout, Other Devices, Supporting Science 1 20:00 - 21:00 Virtual Tour of NIST Quantum Sensor Group Labs Wednesday 21 July 14:00 - 15:15 Oral O3: Instruments 15:15 - 15:25 Break 15:25 - 16:55 Oral O3: Instruments (continued) 16:55 - 17:05 Break 17:05 - 18:30 Poster P3: Instruments, Astrophysics and Cosmology 1 18:00 - 19:00 Vendor Exhibitor Hour Thursday 22 July 14:00 - 15:15 Oral O4A: Rare Events 1 Oral O4B: Material Analysis, Metrology, Other 15:15 - 15:25 Break 15:25 - 16:55 Oral O4A: Rare Events 1 (continued) Oral O4B: Material Analysis, Metrology, Other (continued) 16:55 - 17:05 Break 17:05 - 18:30 Poster P4: Rare Events, Materials Analysis, Metrology, Other Applications 20:00 - 21:00 Virtual Tour of NIST Cleanoom Monday 26 July 23:00 - 00:15 Oral O5: Devices 2 00:15 - 00:25 Break 00:25 - 01:55 Oral O5: Devices 2 (continued) 01:55 - 02:05 Break 02:05 - 03:30 Poster P5: MMCs, SNSPDs, more TESs Tuesday 27 July 23:00 - 00:15 Oral O6: Warm Readout and Supporting Science 00:15 - 00:25 Break 00:25 - 01:55 Oral O6: Warm Readout and Supporting Science -
Estimating the Overdispersion in COVID
Wellcome Open Research 2020, 5:67 Last updated: 13 JUL 2020 RESEARCH ARTICLE Estimating the overdispersion in COVID-19 transmission using outbreak sizes outside China [version 3; peer review: 2 approved] Akira Endo 1,2, Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group, Sam Abbott 1,3, Adam J. Kucharski1,3, Sebastian Funk 1,3 1Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK 2The Alan Turing Institute, London, NW1 2DB, UK 3Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, WC1E 7HT, UK First published: 09 Apr 2020, 5:67 Open Peer Review v3 https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15842.1 Second version: 03 Jul 2020, 5:67 https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15842.2 Reviewer Status Latest published: 10 Jul 2020, 5:67 https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15842.3 Invited Reviewers 1 2 Abstract Background: A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has now version 3 spread to a number of countries worldwide. While sustained transmission (revision) report chains of human-to-human transmission suggest high basic reproduction 10 Jul 2020 number R0, variation in the number of secondary transmissions (often characterised by so-called superspreading events) may be large as some countries have observed fewer local transmissions than others. version 2 Methods: We quantified individual-level variation in COVID-19 (revision) report report transmission by applying a mathematical model to observed outbreak sizes 03 Jul 2020 in affected countries. We extracted the number of imported and local cases in the affected countries from the World Health Organization situation report and applied a branching process model where the number of secondary version 1 transmissions was assumed to follow a negative-binomial distribution. -
RAGHIDA DERGHAM With: HE Sir John Sawer HE Brett Mcgurk HR Rania Al Mashat HE Ambassador Yue Xiao Yong
TRANSCRIPT OF e-POLICY CIRCLE 10 July 8th, 2020 RAGHIDA DERGHAM With: HE Sir John Sawer HE Brett McGurk HR Rania Al Mashat HE Ambassador Yue Xiao Yong Youtube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQvByHy92Ho&t=921s Raghida Dergham: Good morning San Francisco, very good morning and early morning, good afternoon London, Croatia and Cairo. I am in Beirut, and welcome to Beirut Institute Summit e-Policy Circle number 10, and we have a great cast with us today, of course. Sir John Sawer, former Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), former Permanent Representative of the UK at the UN where I got the pleasure of knowing you. Of course, right now you are the independent non-Executive Director of BP Global and Executive Chairman of Newbridge Advisory. Brett McGurk, who joined us last year at Beirut Institute Summit in Abu Dhabi, welcome to the e-Policy Circle. He is former Special Assistant to President George W. Bush and Senior Director of Iraq and Afghanistan, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iraq and Iran, Special Presidential Envoy for the United States campaign against ISIS under President Barack Obama. He is now a Payne distinguished lecturer at Stanford University. Her excellency Rania Al Mashat is Egypt's Minister of International Cooperation, Former Minister of Tourism and previously Adviser to the chief economist of the IMF. And we have Ambassador Yue Xiao Yong, I hope I didn't butcher that, he's a China foreign expert, former Ambassador to Qatar, Jordan, and Ireland, he's Director and Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Studies at Redmond University of China, and he is now in Croatia, he's joining us from Croatia. -
Uncorrected Transcript of Evidence
INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY COMMITTEE OF PARLIAMENT UNCORRECTED TRANSCRIPT OF EVIDENCE Given by Sir Iain Lobban Director, Government Communication Headquarters Mr Andrew Parker Director General, Security Service Sir John Sawers Chief, Secret Intelligence Service Thursday, 7 November 2013 2.00pm CHAIRMAN: Good afternoon. It is my pleasure to welcome you all here today at the first ever open evidence session of the Intelligence and Security Committee. I would like to welcome in particular our three witnesses: Sir Iain Lobban, the Director of GCHQ; Andrew Parker, the Director General of the Security Service, MI5; and Sir John Sawers, the Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service, MI6. Thank you, and we are delighted to welcome you, gentlemen. This session, of course, which we as a Committee first considered a year ago, is a very significant step forward in the transparency of our Intelligence Agencies. Having an open Parliamentary evidence session will be, I believe, of real value. Of course, we will not be asking our witnesses to reveal secret information in public. Nor will we today be able to discuss our current investigation into the tragic death of Lee Rigby in Woolwich in May, since obviously we cannot prejudice the trials of the accused which is to take place in the near future. The Intelligence and Security Committee, with its new powers, investigates the operations and scrutinises the capabilities of the Intelligence Agencies, but those sessions are held behind closed doors and must remain secret. This evidence session is being broadcast with a short time delay. This is a safety mechanism to allow us to pause the broadcast if anything is inadvertently mentioned which might endanger national security or the safety of those involved in safeguarding it. -
Page 1 of 1 UN Security Council Debate on Iran Sanctions 11/30
UN Security Council debate on Iran sanctions Page 1 of 1 Last updated at 10:11 (UK time) 10 Mar 2009 UN Security Council debate on Iran sanctions 10 March 2009 Statement by John Sawers, Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to the United Nations Statement by John Sawers, Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to the United Nations Thank you Mr President and I'd like to join others in thanking Ambassador Takasu for this, his first report to the Council, and express my Delegation's thanks to him and his team for accepting this important responsibility and for the excellent start that they have made in leading the Committee's work. Mr President, The United Kingdom continues to have serious concerns about Iran's nuclear programme. The latest IAEA report, which issued last month, makes clear that, in defiance of UN Security Council Resolutions, Iran has refused to suspend all its proliferation sensitive nuclear activities, namely its uranium enrichment and related activities and various heavy water projects. The International Atomic Energy Authority reports that Iran now has more than 5,500 centrifuges installed, of which about 4,000 are actively enriching uranium, for which Iran has no plausible civilian use. Iran has also refused access to IAEA inspectors to the heavy water reactor at Arak, for the second time in a row. This is of particular concern because the reactor's design at Arak is ideally suited to producing plutonium, which could be used for nuclear weapons. -
H Subject: Fw: Sawers / Telegraph Articles
UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2014-20439 Doc No. C05795070 Date: 02/13/2016 RELEASE IN PART B1,1.4(B),1.4(D),B6 From: H <[email protected] > Sent: Friday, July 13, 2012 1:46 AM To: '[email protected]' Subject: Re: Sawers / Telegraph articles Classified by DAS, A/GIS, DoS on 02/13/2016 — Class: Gobsmacking! CONFIDENTIAL — Reason: 1.4(B), 1.4(D) — Declassify on: 07/13/2032 From: Sullivan, Jacob 3 [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Thursday, July 12, 2012 11:18 PM To: H Subject: Fw: Sawers / Telegraph articles See the article down the string. From: Sherman, Wendy R Sent: Thursday, July 12, 2012 09:25 PM To: Nuland, Victoria 3; Murad, Eshel William; Hammer, Michael A; Ventrell, Patrick H; Sullivan, Jacob 3; Einhorn, Robert 3; 'Benjamin_3._Rhodes <Benjamin_l_Rhodes B6 Cc: Grantham, Chris W; Lakhdhir, Kannala S Subject: Re: Sawers / Telegraph articles Yes, Chris Grantham on my staff sent me an Alert Iran that had this story. Most unfortunate on many levels to say the least. Where to begin... From: Nuland, Victoria J Sent: Thursday, July 12, 2012 09:08 PM To: Murad, Eshel William; Hammer, Michael A; Ventrell, Patrick H• Sullivan Jacob 3; Sherman, Wendy R; Einhorn, Robert 3; 'Benjamin J. Rhodes <Benjamin J._Rhodes B6 Subject: Fw: Sawers / Telegraph articles Fysa - this from my UK embassy contact. Sawers heads MI6. From: James.Barbour [mailto B6 Sent: Thursday, July 12, 2012 06:21 PM To: Nuland, Victoria 3 Cc: Toner, Mark C Subject: FW: Sawers / Telegraph articles Toria, 1.4(B) 1.4(D) B1 UNCLASSIFIED U.S. -
Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament
Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament Annual Report 2016–2017 Chair: The Rt. Hon. Dominic Grieve QC MP Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament Annual Report 2016–2017 Chair: The Rt. Hon. Dominic Grieve QC MP Presented to Parliament pursuant to sections 2 and 3 of the Justice and Security Act 2013 Ordered by the House of Commons to be printed on 20 December 2017 HC 655 © Crown copyright 2017 This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open- government-licence/version/3 Where we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned. This publication is available at isc.independent.gov.uk Any enquiries regarding this publication should be sent to us via our webform at isc.independent.gov.uk/contact ISBN 978-1-5286-0168-9 CCS1217631642 12/17 Printed on paper containing 75% recycled fibre content minimum Printed in the UK by the APS Group on behalf of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office THE INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY COMMITTEE OF PARLIAMENT This Report reflects the work of the previous Committee,1 which sat from September 2015 to May 2017: The Rt. Hon. Dominic Grieve QC MP (Chair) The Rt. Hon. Richard Benyon MP The Most Hon. the Marquess of Lothian QC PC (from 21 October 2016) The Rt. Hon. Sir Alan Duncan KCMG MP The Rt. Hon. Fiona Mactaggart MP (until 17 July 2016) The Rt. Hon. -
Intelligence and Security Committee – Annual Report
Intelligence and Security Committee – Annual Report 2011–2012 Intelligence and Security Committee – Intelligence and Security Committee Annual Report 2011–2012 Chairman: The Rt. Hon. Sir Malcolm Rifkind, MP Published by TSO (The Stationery Office) and available from: Online www.tsoshop.co.uk Mail, Telephone, Fax & E-mail TSO PO Box 29, Norwich NR3 1GN Telephone orders/General enquiries: 0870 600 5522 Order through the Parliamentary Hotline Lo-Call: 0845 7 023474 Fax orders: 0870 600 5533 Email: [email protected] Textphone: 0870 240 3701 The Parliamentary Bookshop 12 Bridge Street, Parliament Square London SW1A 2JX Telephone orders/General enquiries: 020 7219 3890 INSERT Fax orders: 020 7219 3866 BARCODE Email: [email protected] Internet: www.bookshop.parliament.uk TSO@Blackwell and other accredited agents Intelligence and Security Committee Annual Report 2011–2012 Chairman: The Rt. Hon. Sir Malcolm Rifkind, MP Intelligence Services Act 1994 Chapter 13 Presented to Parliament by the Prime Minister By Command of Her Majesty July 2012 Cm 8403 £21.25 © Crown copyright 2012 You may re-use this information (excluding logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence. To view this licence, visit www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/ or email [email protected] Where we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned. Any enquiries regarding this publication should be sent to us at [email protected] This publication is available for download at www.official-documents.gov.uk ISBN: 9780101840323 Printed in the UK by The Stationery Office Limited on behalf of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office ID P002500979 07/12 21937 19585 Printed on paper containing 75% recycled fibre content minimum. -
The Confrontation with Iran: a Covert War
The Confrontation with Iran: A Covert War By Akbar E. Torbat January 20, 2012 "Information Clearing House" --- The Control over the oil-rich regions of the Middle East and North Africa is strategically very important for the US and its Western allies. To expand their domination over the oil-rich regions, the US and its allies are trying to destabilize the countries that are not under their control so that they can install new client regimes in their place. After the US - NATO success to control the oil-rich Libya, it appears that the next would be the oil-rich Iran. In recent years, Iran has significantly progressed in science and technology. The US and its allies are concerned that Iran’s progress will deter their imperial hegemony in the Persian Gulf region. To contain Iran, the US & its allies have used the Iranian nuclear program as a pretext to weaken Iran by imposing sanctions against it. In addition to the economic sanctions that have been in effect for some time, the US and its allies have recently confronted Iran in several other fronts, including covert operations, freezing assets, cutting ties with Iran’s Central Bank, threatening to attack Iran’s nuclear installations, trying to overthrow Iran’s ally President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and media campaigns to foment a soft- coup. Here is how these actions have increased tensions between Iran and the West. Fomenting a Velvet Revolution Iran’s relations with the West improved during 1990s and early 2000s through a faction of Islamic clerics, the so-called “moderate clerics”, affiliated with the Iranian affluent and merchant class. -
By Sean B. Carroll
Educator Supplements to the book, THE SERENGETI RULES THE QUEST TO DISCOVER HOW LIFE WORKS AND WHY IT MATTERS BY SEAN B. CARROLL Prepared by Paul Strode Teacher of Biology at Fairview High School Boulder, Colorado 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. SUMMARY OF THE SERENGETI RULES 4–8 II. INTRODUCTION TO QUESTION SETS FOR THE SERENGETI RULES 9–11 III. ENGAGEMENT QUESTIONS 12–21 IV. DISCUSSION QUESTIONS 22–30 V. ASSESSMENT QUESTIONS 31–40 VI. COURSE CURRICULUM ALIGNMENTS: AP BIOLOGY, IB BIOLOGY, NGSS 41–53 VII. EXAMPLE ADVANCED BIOLOGY CURRICULUM MAP FOR THE SERENGETI RULES 54–57 2 HOW TEACHERS MIGHT USE THE SERENGETI RULES IN THE CLASSROOM The Serengeti Rules, molecular biologist Sean Carroll takes the reader on a journey through the history of the scientific discovery of many of nature’s most important regulatory mechanisms, from molecules to megafauna. In the spirit of Theodisius Dobzhansky, Carroll teaches us in The Serengeti Rules that nothing in biology makes sense except in the light of regulation. Thus, at the very center of the book is the big, biological idea of homeostasis. Indeed, a key to understand- ing how living systems work and the supporting roles played by evolutionary processes is understanding how a rela- tively stable environment, be it in a cell or in an ecosystem, is maintained and regulated. Throughout the book, Carroll tells the stories of the scientists—and their discoveries—that have given us our current understanding of regulation in nature. But in the stories, Carroll also teaches the reader about the nature of science and scientific reasoning, the impor- tance of modeling, and how scientific discovery is full of determination and success but also frequented with failure. -
Downloaded At: Surveillance-DATAPSST-DCSS-Nov2015.Pdf
City Research Online City, University of London Institutional Repository Citation: Lashmar, P. ORCID: 0000-0001-9049-3985 (2018). From silence to primary definer: The rise of the Intelligence lobby in the public sphere. Critical Sociology, doi: 10.1177/0896920518780987 This is the accepted version of the paper. This version of the publication may differ from the final published version. Permanent repository link: https://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/20272/ Link to published version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0896920518780987 Copyright: City Research Online aims to make research outputs of City, University of London available to a wider audience. Copyright and Moral Rights remain with the author(s) and/or copyright holders. URLs from City Research Online may be freely distributed and linked to. Reuse: Copies of full items can be used for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge. Provided that the authors, title and full bibliographic details are credited, a hyperlink and/or URL is given for the original metadata page and the content is not changed in any way. City Research Online: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/ [email protected] From silence to primary definer: The emergence of an Intelligence lobby in the public sphere. Abstract Until the end of the Cold War the UK intelligence services were not officially acknowledged, and their personnel were banned from entering the public sphere. From 1989 the UK government began to put the intelligence services on a legal footing and release the identity of the heads of the intelligence agencies.