DOCSLIB.ORG

How the U.S. Should Respond to the Islamist Terrorism Threat in Europe

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
How the U.S. Should Respond to the Islamist Terrorism Threat in Europe BACKGROUNDER No. 3142 | AUGUST 1, 2016 The Threat of Islamist Terrorism in Europe and How the U.S. Should Respond Robin Simcox Abstract As recent events in Nice and Ansbach demonstrate, Europe faces an on- Key Points going threat from Islamist terrorism. The United States also remains a key target for ISIS, al-Qaeda, and their supporters. The U.S. and Eu- n The likelihood of a terrorist attack rope have a shared enemy and must assist each other in the defense of has increased in both Europe and liberal and democratic values. For its part, the U.S. must take the fight the United States. ISIS, al-Qae- da, and their affiliates must be to ISIS and al-Qaeda in the Middle East and Africa and be willing to militarily defeated abroad to help kill or capture its enemies. The U.S. must also take a multifaceted ap- ease the threat at home. proach to trying to halt the flow of foreign fighters. In Europe, several n The threat to Europe is multifac- countries blighted by terrorism not only have devoted scant resources eted: Attacks could be planned by to tackling this problem, but also have taken an insufficiently robust al-Qaeda or ISIS, by cells or radi- line on terrorist activity. The U.S. should encourage its European al- calized loners they have inspired, lies to reverse this trend. It can also assist Europeans in breaking down or by returnees trained by terror- intelligence firewalls that exist within individual nations while trying ist groups abroad. Europeans are to improve pre-existing intelligence-sharing arrangements. also vulnerable to being targeted in al-Qaeda operations across the urope faces a persistent threat from Islamist terrorism.1 It is one Middle East and Africa. Ethat has increased with the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and n The U.S. must step up its war al-Sham (ISIS), the al-Qaeda offshoot that now controls significant against ISIS, al-Qaeda, and their parts of Iraq and Syria. The director of Europol recently described affiliates by reviewing the cur- rent strategy for breaking the the current situation as “the highest terrorist threat we have faced 2 Islamic State’s territorial control for over 10 years.” These security concerns are being exacerbated and trying to plug its flow of for- by unprecedented levels of migration into Europe from impover- eign fighters. ished and/or war-torn areas of the Middle East, Africa, and the Bal- n The U.S. should encourage Euro- kans, with ISIS known to have targeted such routes for infiltration. pean countries to take a more ISIS displayed its ability to strike at the heart of Europe during robust approach to counterterror- attacks in Paris in November 2015 and Brussels in January 2016, ism, break down internal intel- while those trained by al-Qaeda carried out the January 2015 raid ligence firewalls within individual nations, and attempt to improve pre-existing intelligence-sharing This paper, in its entirety, can be found at http://report.heritage.org/bg3142 arrangements. The Heritage Foundation 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20002 (202) 546-4400 | heritage.org Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill before Congress. BACKGROUNDER | NO. 3142 AUGUST 1, 2016 on the Charlie Hebdo offices (also in Paris). The with both al-Qaeda leaders Ayman al-Zawahiri and potency of these groups is enhanced by their ongo- ANF emir Abu Mohammed al-Joulani attempting ing ability to inspire small cells of radicalized sup- to bring al-Baghdadi to heel. Unsuccessful in doing porters living in the West to carry out attacks on so, ISIS was expelled from the al-Qaeda network in their behalf. The vast majority of plots in the West February 2014. emanate from such supporters, who have claimed Undeterred, in June 2014, ISIS cut a swathe affiliation with a terrorist group without ever having throughout parts of northern and western Iraq, traveled to popular safe havens such as Iraq, Paki- gaining significant amounts of territory to comple- stan, Somalia, Syria, or Yemen. It appears as though ment the territory that it already controlled in Syria. Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel, the terrorist who ISIS leaders in the same month declared the return killed 84 people with a 19-ton truck in Nice recently, of the “caliphate,” with its capital in the north- was one such individual. ern Syrian city of Raqqa. Thousands of Europeans The U.S. should assist Europe by stepping up answered al-Baghdadi’s call to leave their homes—at military activities against al-Qaeda, ISIS, and their times, taking entire families with them—and going affiliates. There is much it can do to ease the for- to live in the newly declared Islamic state. eign terrorist fighter threat while also reminding With ISIS gathering in strength, taking more ter- the continent of its own military responsibilities. In ritory and committing genocide against minority addition, the U.S. should assist Europeans in break- groups, the United States intervened. Since August ing down intelligence firewalls that exist within 2014, the U.S. and its coalition partners (including individual nations, making better use of pre-exist- Europeans) have carried out airstrikes against ISIS ing intelligence-sharing arrangements and adopting targets, stalling their advance but loosening the a tougher approach to law and order. group’s grip on its territory only very slowly. ISIS initially responded with a series of videos ISIS: The Context aimed at Western audiences that featured British The Islamic State of Iraq, the precursor of ISIS terrorist Mohammed Emwazi beheading multiple and an al-Qaeda offshoot, was perceived by some American and British citizens in the Syrian desert. Western policymakers as having been strategically Yet the threat to life was destined to spread beyond defeated following the U.S. “surge” of 2006–2007 the Middle East, and ISIS increasingly displayed a in Iraq, but the terrorist group had benefited from capacity to strike at targets based well beyond its America’s effectively having withdrawn—both polit- “caliphate.” ically and militarily—from Iraq in the 2010–2011 period. It was also boosted by the chaos in Syria, ISIS and Europe where the Arab Spring protests were met with bloody Europe’s secularism and democratic values of persecution from Bashar al-Assad. In both Iraq and equality and liberty represent a direct challenge to Syria, the Islamic State of Iraq now had significant the ISIS ideology. Therefore, the ISIS strategy focus- space from which to operate. es on carrying out attacks to present Muslims liv- In April 2013, Islamic State of Iraq emir Abu Bakr ing in the West with a clear (yet false) choice: apos- al-Baghdadi declared that the al-Nusra Front (ANF), tasy or allegiance to their “caliphate.”3 In order to the al-Qaeda affiliate operating in Syria, was essen- present this choice, ISIS has taken a multi-pronged tially a front for his group. He announced the cre- approach to striking Europe. ation of a new organization: the Islamic State of Iraq Centrally Controlled Attacks. Carrying out and al-Sham (ISIS). This led to internal squabbling, attacks in Europe has been an ISIS goal for over two 1. Islamism is defined as a belief that God rather than man should make law and that Islam is not only a religion, but also an all-encompassing sociopolitical system. 2. Mark Stone, “Terror Threat to Europe ‘Highest for 10 Years,’” Sky News, March 9, 2016, http://news.sky.com/story/1656134/terror-threat-to-europe-highest-for-10-years (accessed April 21, 2016). 3. Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan, Jennifer Caffarella, Harleen Gambhir, and Katherine Zimmerman, “Al Qaeda and ISIS: Existential Threats to the U.S. and Europe,” U.S. Grand Strategy: Destroying ISIS and Al Qaeda, Report One, Institute for the Study of War, January 2016, p. 24, http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/PLANEX%20Report%201%20--%20FINALFINALFINAL.pdf (accessed July 15, 2016). 2 BACKGROUNDER | NO. 3142 AUGUST 1, 2016 years.4 A key figure in these plans has been Abdelha- Passengers, including two members of the U.S. mid Abaaoud, a Belgian citizen of Moroccan origin Army, restrained him. El-Khazzani is believed who first traveled toS yria at the beginning of 2013. to have been sent on this mission by Abaaoud. In He was tasked by Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, ISIS the same month, French authorities arrested a spokesman and the head of ISIS’s external opera- French citizen, Reda Hame, on his way back from tions wing, with planning terrorist operations in training in Syria. Abaaoud had dispatched Hame Europe and was quickly connected to a series of back to Europe with instructions to acquire a gun, plots in Belgium and France. kill civilians, and then hold hostages until he was “martyred.” n May 2014: Brussels, Belgium. Mehdi Nem- mouche, a French citizen of Algerian origin, shot n November 2015: Paris, France. On Novem- and killed four civilians at the Jewish Museum in ber 13, 2015, one of ISIS’s grandest European Brussels. Nemmouche, an ISIS-aligned terrorist plans succeeded. A shocking total of 130 people who had fought in Syria, is thought to have spo- were killed in Paris after a series of shootings ken to Abaaoud over the phone in January 2014. and suicide bombings carried out by ISIS opera- tives in four cafes, a football stadium, and a music n January 2015: Verviers, Belgium. By Janu- venue. The primarily French cell that conducted ary 2015, Abaaoud had returned to Europe from the attacks contained returnees from the Syr- Syria and was in contact with three other recent- ian–Iraqi conflict, and Abaaoud was suspected of ly returned ISIS terrorists based in Verviers, Bel- being on the scene during the attacks on the cafes gium.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Post-Caliphate Terror Threat in Europe—And the Need for Continuing U.S
    BACKGROUNDER No. 3424 | AUGUST 19, 2019 MARGARET THATCHER CENTER FOR FREEDOM The Post-Caliphate Terror Threat in Europe—and the Need for Continuing U.S. Assistance Robin Simcox merica’s strategy has worked: It took almost KEY TAKEAWAYS four-and-a-half years, but the Islamic State’s self-proclaimed caliphate in Syria and Iraq The Islamist threat to Europe has been A has been dismantled. The last remaining town under reduced, with key ISIS external operations ISIS control, Baghouz in eastern Syria, fell to coalition planners killed and its control of territory broken in Syria and Iraq. and Syrian Democratic Forces in March 2019. The destruction of the caliphate will make the world a safer place. It attracted foreign fighters, served However, the threat has diversified, and as a training ground for a generation of terrorists, and more terrorist attacks are still occurring breathed fresh life into key concepts in Islamist doc- in Europe than before the caliphate trine. Internal ISIS documentation laments a lack of was established. suicide bomber volunteers, weaponry, and financing,1 with despondency and low morale among foreign 2 The next center of gravity for global jihad- fighters from Europe. Some (though by no means ism is unclear. With conflicts simmering all) previously belligerent foreign fighters appear, at across the world, the U.S. and its allies least on the surface, dejected and contrite in inter- must try to get ahead of the threat. views with Western media.3 The foreign fighter flow to Syria has essentially ceased. This paper, in its entirety, can be found at http://report.heritage.org/bg3424 The Heritage Foundation | 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE | Washington, DC 20002 | (202) 546-4400 | heritage.org Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill before Congress.
    [Show full text]
  • The Path to Terrorism: the Islamic State and Its Recruitment Strategies
    University of Connecticut OpenCommons@UConn Honors Scholar Theses Honors Scholar Program Spring 5-1-2018 The aP th to Terrorism: The slI amic State and Its Recruitment Strategies Laura Turner [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://opencommons.uconn.edu/srhonors_theses Part of the International Relations Commons, Near and Middle Eastern Studies Commons, and the Terrorism Studies Commons Recommended Citation Turner, Laura, "The aP th to Terrorism: The slI amic State and Its Recruitment Strategies" (2018). Honors Scholar Theses. 585. https://opencommons.uconn.edu/srhonors_theses/585 1 The University of Connecticut The Path to Terrorism: The Islamic State and Its Recruitment Strategies Laura Turner Honors Senior Thesis Advisor: Professor Jeremy Pressman Individualized & Interdisciplinary Studies Program 19 April 2018 2 Introduction 13,488 terrorist attacks occurred around the world in 2016.i 1,468 of these, or 10.9%, were perpetrated by the Islamic State.1 The Islamic State (IS), also known as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) or the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), is an extremely violent Islamist terrorist organization that follows Salafism, a strict interpretation of Sunni Islam. The group’s ultimate goal is to establish a worldwide caliphate, or a state governed by Islamic law. ISIS is rooted in Abu Musad al-Zarqawi’s Al Qaeda in Iraq, a militant organization so extreme and violent that even Al Qaeda’s leadership criticized its methods and eventually renounced connections with the group. When Zarqawi was killed by a U.S. airstrike in 2006, Abu Ayyub al Masri became the leader of the group and renamed it the Islamic State in Iraq (ISI).
    [Show full text]
  • From Criminals to Terrorists and Back?
    FROM CRIMINALS TO TERRORISTS AND BACK? KICK-OFF REPORT www.globsec.org AUTHORS Kacper Rekawek, Head of Defence and Security Programme, GLOBSEC Policy Institute Stanislav Matejka, Junior Research Fellow, Defence and Security Programme, GLOBSEC Policy Institute Martina Babikova, GLOBSEC Policy Institute Tomas Nagy, Research Fellow, Defence and Security Programme, GLOBSEC Policy Institute Jakub Rafay, GLOBSEC Policy Institute Design by Peter Verček, GLOBSEC The following distinguished partners were consulted in the process of preparation of this report. The sole responsibility for the content of this publication lies with the authors. • Austria - Daniela Pisoiu • Bulgaria - Rositsa Dzhekova, Nadya Stoynova • France - Olivier de France, Damien Saverot, Pierre Colomina • Germany - Matenia Sirseloudi • Greece - Eleni Fotou • Ireland - Orla Lynch • Italy - Marco Lombardi, Giovanni Giacalone, Nicolò Spagna • Netherlands - Jessica Sciarone, Bart Schuurman • Spain - Fernando Reinares, Carola García Calvo, Álvaro Vicente • United Kingdom - John Morrison, Aleksandra Łojek The project is funded under PMI IMPACT, a global grant initiative of Philip Morris International to support projects against illegal trade. GLOBSEC is fully independent in implementing the project and has editorial responsibility for all views and opinions expressed herein. CONTENTS PROJECT SUMMARY 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 FROM CRIMINALS TO TERRORISTS AND BACK? 10 INTRODUCING CRIME-TERROR NEXUS 10 RESEARCHING THE CRIME-TERROR NEXUS: CHALLENGES 12 RESEARCHING THE NEXUS: WHAT IS NEXT?
    [Show full text]
  • APR 2016 Part C.Pdf
    Page | 1 CBRNE-TERRORISM NEWSLETTER – April 2016 www.cbrne-terrorism-newsletter.com Page | 2 CBRNE-TERRORISM NEWSLETTER – April 2016 After Brussels, Europe's intelligence woes revealed Source:http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/22/brussels-attack-why-europe-must-increase-terror- intelligence.html Mar 23 – Europe must improve the regional Rudd's comments are at the crux of a hot- sharing of intelligence to successfully button discourse about the encroachment on combat the rise of homegrown militants, civil liberties should governments ramp up policy experts told CNBC a day after deadly surveillance and detainment tactics in the explosions hit Brussels. global war on terror. Global terrorist organization ISIS claimed Rudd believes it's a necessary cost to bear. responsibility for Tuesday's attacks that killed "This is not a normal set of circumstances, at least 31 people, the latest episode in the we've got to give our men and women in group's campaign of large-scale violence on uniform and in the intelligence services the the international stage. powers necessary to deal with this. This is no Recent offensives in Paris and Jakarta indicate criticism of the Belgian government but a wake- ISIS is increasingly relying on local up call to all of us who wrestle with this fundamentalists, typically trained in ISIS debate." strongholds within the Middle East, to execute Others agree that European officials must suicide bombings and shootings in busy direct more investment to counter-terrorism, metropolitan areas. despite strained finances for most countries in "The key question here is closing the the region. intelligence gap," said Kevin Rudd, former The fact that the perpetrator of December's Prime Minister of Australia and president of the Paris attacks was caught in Belgium four Asia Society Policy Institute.
    [Show full text]
  • THE ROLE of BELGIAN FIGHTERS in the JIHADIFICATION of the SYRIAN WAR from PLOTTING EARLY in 2011 to the PARIS and BRUSSELS ATTACKS European Foundation for Democracy
    THE ROLE OF BELGIAN FIGHTERS IN THE JIHADIFICATION OF THE SYRIAN WAR FROM PLOTTING EARLY IN 2011 TO THE PARIS AND BRUSSELS ATTACKS European Foundation for Democracy The European Foundation for Democracy (EFD) is a policy institute that has been working with civil society, academic, governmental and other stakeholders on the prevention of radicalisation for more than a decade. With offices in Brussels and Berlin, EFD supports initiatives to streng- then resilience of communities in various countries by empowering credible pro-democratic voices to prevent radicalisation from gaining a foothold in our societies. Counter Extremism Project The Counter Extremism Project (CEP) is a not-for-profit, non-partisan, international policy orga- nisation formed to address the threat of extremist ideologies. It does so by uncovering financial support networks, challenging the narrative of extremists and their online recruitment tactics and working with governments and other stakeholders to create effective laws, policies and regulations. CEP has offices in New York and Washington DC. Authors Pieter Van Ostaeyen and Guy Van Vlierden 2017 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY From early on in the Syrian–Iraqi conflict, foreign fighters from Belgium have played an important role. To begin with, there have been many of them: on a per capita basis, more fighters have come from Belgium than from any other Western European country. But beyond this, they have often ended up in the right place at the right time. Many of them joined a key militia in the genesis of the Islamic State (IS), and some were even present when IS was founded. Furthermore, many were under the command of later IS heavyweights, and several contributed to the transformation of IS into an international terrorist group.
    [Show full text]
  • EASO Country of Origin Information Report Pakistan Security Situation
    European Asylum Support Office EASO Country of Origin Information Report Pakistan Security Situation October 2018 SUPPORT IS OUR MISSION European Asylum Support Office EASO Country of Origin Information Report Pakistan Security Situation October 2018 More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu). ISBN: 978-92-9476-319-8 doi: 10.2847/639900 © European Asylum Support Office 2018 Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, unless otherwise stated. For third-party materials reproduced in this publication, reference is made to the copyrights statements of the respective third parties. Cover photo: FATA Faces FATA Voices, © FATA Reforms, url, CC BY-NC-SA 2.0 Neither EASO nor any person acting on its behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained herein. EASO COI REPORT PAKISTAN: SECURITY SITUATION — 3 Acknowledgements EASO would like to acknowledge the Belgian Center for Documentation and Research (Cedoca) in the Office of the Commissioner General for Refugees and Stateless Persons, as the drafter of this report. Furthermore, the following national asylum and migration departments have contributed by reviewing the report: The Netherlands, Immigration and Naturalization Service, Office for Country Information and Language Analysis Hungary, Office of Immigration and Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Office Documentation Centre Slovakia, Migration Office, Department of Documentation and Foreign Cooperation Sweden, Migration Agency, Lifos
    [Show full text]
  • RAGHIDA DERGHAM With: HE Sir John Sawer HE Brett Mcgurk HR Rania Al Mashat HE Ambassador Yue Xiao Yong
    TRANSCRIPT OF e-POLICY CIRCLE 10 July 8th, 2020 RAGHIDA DERGHAM With: HE Sir John Sawer HE Brett McGurk HR Rania Al Mashat HE Ambassador Yue Xiao Yong Youtube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQvByHy92Ho&t=921s Raghida Dergham: Good morning San Francisco, very good morning and early morning, good afternoon London, Croatia and Cairo. I am in Beirut, and welcome to Beirut Institute Summit e-Policy Circle number 10, and we have a great cast with us today, of course. Sir John Sawer, former Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), former Permanent Representative of the UK at the UN where I got the pleasure of knowing you. Of course, right now you are the independent non-Executive Director of BP Global and Executive Chairman of Newbridge Advisory. Brett McGurk, who joined us last year at Beirut Institute Summit in Abu Dhabi, welcome to the e-Policy Circle. He is former Special Assistant to President George W. Bush and Senior Director of Iraq and Afghanistan, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iraq and Iran, Special Presidential Envoy for the United States campaign against ISIS under President Barack Obama. He is now a Payne distinguished lecturer at Stanford University. Her excellency Rania Al Mashat is Egypt's Minister of International Cooperation, Former Minister of Tourism and previously Adviser to the chief economist of the IMF. And we have Ambassador Yue Xiao Yong, I hope I didn't butcher that, he's a China foreign expert, former Ambassador to Qatar, Jordan, and Ireland, he's Director and Senior Fellow at the Center for Global Studies at Redmond University of China, and he is now in Croatia, he's joining us from Croatia.
    [Show full text]
  • Uncorrected Transcript of Evidence
    INTELLIGENCE AND SECURITY COMMITTEE OF PARLIAMENT UNCORRECTED TRANSCRIPT OF EVIDENCE Given by Sir Iain Lobban Director, Government Communication Headquarters Mr Andrew Parker Director General, Security Service Sir John Sawers Chief, Secret Intelligence Service Thursday, 7 November 2013 2.00pm CHAIRMAN: Good afternoon. It is my pleasure to welcome you all here today at the first ever open evidence session of the Intelligence and Security Committee. I would like to welcome in particular our three witnesses: Sir Iain Lobban, the Director of GCHQ; Andrew Parker, the Director General of the Security Service, MI5; and Sir John Sawers, the Chief of the Secret Intelligence Service, MI6. Thank you, and we are delighted to welcome you, gentlemen. This session, of course, which we as a Committee first considered a year ago, is a very significant step forward in the transparency of our Intelligence Agencies. Having an open Parliamentary evidence session will be, I believe, of real value. Of course, we will not be asking our witnesses to reveal secret information in public. Nor will we today be able to discuss our current investigation into the tragic death of Lee Rigby in Woolwich in May, since obviously we cannot prejudice the trials of the accused which is to take place in the near future. The Intelligence and Security Committee, with its new powers, investigates the operations and scrutinises the capabilities of the Intelligence Agencies, but those sessions are held behind closed doors and must remain secret. This evidence session is being broadcast with a short time delay. This is a safety mechanism to allow us to pause the broadcast if anything is inadvertently mentioned which might endanger national security or the safety of those involved in safeguarding it.
    [Show full text]
  • Belgium: Extremism and Terrorism
    Belgium: Extremism and Terrorism On February 5, 2020, it was reported that prosecutors in Belgium are currently seeking to bring eight men to the country’s highest court for their alleged role in carrying out an ISIS-inspired triple suicide bombing in Brussels in March 2016. The ringleader, Oussama Atar, who was allegedly a senior figure in ISIS’s intelligence service, purportedly died in Syria in 2017. One other suspect, Salah Abdeslam, is already in French jail due to his role in the Paris 2015 attack that killed 131 people. The other suspects have been formally charged, but their trials are not due to start until 2021. (Source: The National) On January 30, 2020, the Belgian Court of Cassation confirmed a ruling by the Brussels Court of Appeals that the Kurdish Worker’s Party (PKK) should not be classified as a terrorist organization. Although the Belgian government considers the PKK to be a terrorist organization, the Court of Cassation represents the opinion of the judiciary which is an independent body from the executive branch. The ruling claimed that EU anti- terrorism legislation cannot be applied towards the PKK as it is involved in a non-international armed conflict or civil war and is thus allowed to use legitimate military force. The PKK is an internationally designated terrorist organization that has been in conflict with the Turkish government for decades. Although it is uncertain if the ruling will create diplomatic altercations with Turkey, the Belgian government depends on stable relations with Ankara to track Belgian nationals who joined ISIS in Syria and continue to remain in the region.
    [Show full text]
  • Intelligence Failures in Countering Islamic Terrorism: a Comparative Analysis on the Strategic Surprises of the 9/11 and the Pa
    Department of Political Science Master’s Degree in International Relations - Global Studies Chair of Geopolitical Scenarios and Political Risk Intelligence Failures in Countering Islamic Terrorism: A Comparative Analysis on the Strategic Surprises of the 9/11 and the Paris Attacks and the Exceptionality of the Italian Case SUPERVISOR CANDIDATE Prof. Giuseppe Scognamiglio Antonella Camerino Student ID: 639472 CO-SUPERVISOR Prof. Lorenzo Castellani ACCADEMIC YEAR 2019-2020 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT…………………………………………………………………………………………5 INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………………………………………..6 CHAPTER 1: Intelligence: A Theoretical Framework 1.1 – The Intelligence Cycle………………………………………………………………….11 1.2 – Intelligence Failures…………………………………………………………………….19 1.3 – The Strategic Surprises and Surprises Attacks………………………………………….24 1.4 – The Black Swan Theory………………………………………………………………...30 CHAPTER 2: The Case of USA: The Attacks of the 9/11 2.1 – The US Intelligence Community……………………………………………………….35 2.2 – Analysis of a Terrorist Organization: Al-Qaeda………………………………………..43 2.3 – The 9/11 Attacks: Facts, Causes and Consequences……………………………………52 2.4 – The US Involvement in the Middle East: The War on Terror………………………….61 CHAPTER 3: The Case of France: The Paris Attacks of November 13 3.1 – The French Intelligence Community…………………………………………………...73 3.2 – Analysis of a Terrorist Organization: The Islamic State………………………………..80 3.3 – The Paris Attacks of November 13: Facts, Causes and Consequences………………...90 3.4 – The French Involvement in the Middle East: Opération Chammal…………………….98
    [Show full text]
  • Page 1 of 1 UN Security Council Debate on Iran Sanctions 11/30
    UN Security Council debate on Iran sanctions Page 1 of 1 Last updated at 10:11 (UK time) 10 Mar 2009 UN Security Council debate on Iran sanctions 10 March 2009 Statement by John Sawers, Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to the United Nations Statement by John Sawers, Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to the United Nations Thank you Mr President and I'd like to join others in thanking Ambassador Takasu for this, his first report to the Council, and express my Delegation's thanks to him and his team for accepting this important responsibility and for the excellent start that they have made in leading the Committee's work. Mr President, The United Kingdom continues to have serious concerns about Iran's nuclear programme. The latest IAEA report, which issued last month, makes clear that, in defiance of UN Security Council Resolutions, Iran has refused to suspend all its proliferation sensitive nuclear activities, namely its uranium enrichment and related activities and various heavy water projects. The International Atomic Energy Authority reports that Iran now has more than 5,500 centrifuges installed, of which about 4,000 are actively enriching uranium, for which Iran has no plausible civilian use. Iran has also refused access to IAEA inspectors to the heavy water reactor at Arak, for the second time in a row. This is of particular concern because the reactor's design at Arak is ideally suited to producing plutonium, which could be used for nuclear weapons.
    [Show full text]
  • H Subject: Fw: Sawers / Telegraph Articles
    UNCLASSIFIED U.S. Department of State Case No. F-2014-20439 Doc No. C05795070 Date: 02/13/2016 RELEASE IN PART B1,1.4(B),1.4(D),B6 From: H <[email protected] > Sent: Friday, July 13, 2012 1:46 AM To: '[email protected]' Subject: Re: Sawers / Telegraph articles Classified by DAS, A/GIS, DoS on 02/13/2016 — Class: Gobsmacking! CONFIDENTIAL — Reason: 1.4(B), 1.4(D) — Declassify on: 07/13/2032 From: Sullivan, Jacob 3 [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Thursday, July 12, 2012 11:18 PM To: H Subject: Fw: Sawers / Telegraph articles See the article down the string. From: Sherman, Wendy R Sent: Thursday, July 12, 2012 09:25 PM To: Nuland, Victoria 3; Murad, Eshel William; Hammer, Michael A; Ventrell, Patrick H; Sullivan, Jacob 3; Einhorn, Robert 3; 'Benjamin_3._Rhodes <Benjamin_l_Rhodes B6 Cc: Grantham, Chris W; Lakhdhir, Kannala S Subject: Re: Sawers / Telegraph articles Yes, Chris Grantham on my staff sent me an Alert Iran that had this story. Most unfortunate on many levels to say the least. Where to begin... From: Nuland, Victoria J Sent: Thursday, July 12, 2012 09:08 PM To: Murad, Eshel William; Hammer, Michael A; Ventrell, Patrick H• Sullivan Jacob 3; Sherman, Wendy R; Einhorn, Robert 3; 'Benjamin J. Rhodes <Benjamin J._Rhodes B6 Subject: Fw: Sawers / Telegraph articles Fysa - this from my UK embassy contact. Sawers heads MI6. From: James.Barbour [mailto B6 Sent: Thursday, July 12, 2012 06:21 PM To: Nuland, Victoria 3 Cc: Toner, Mark C Subject: FW: Sawers / Telegraph articles Toria, 1.4(B) 1.4(D) B1 UNCLASSIFIED U.S.
    [Show full text]