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Regional-Scale Distributed Modelling of Glacier Meteorology and Melt, Southern Coast Mountains, Canada

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Regional-Scale Distributed Modelling of Glacier Meteorology and Melt, Southern Coast Mountains, Canada Regional-Scale Distributed Modelling of Glacier Meteorology and Melt, southern Coast Mountains, Canada by Joseph Michael Shea B.Sc., McMaster University, 2001 M.Sc., University of Calgary, 2004 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in The Faculty of Graduate Studies (Geography) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Vancouver) April 2010 c Joseph Michael Shea 2010 Abstract Spatially distributed regional scale models of glacier melt are required to as- sess the potential impacts of climate change on glacier response and proglacial streamflow. The objective of this study was to address the challenges as- sociated with regional scale modelling of glacier melt, specifically by (1) developing methods for estimating regional fields of the meteorological vari- ables required to run melt models, and (2) testing models with a range of complexity against observed snow and ice melt at four glaciers in the south- ern Coast Mountains, ranging in size from a small cirque glacier to a large valley glacier. Near-surface air temperature and humidity measured over four glaciers in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia were compared to ambi- ent values estimated from a regional network of off-glacier weather stations. Systematic differences between measured and ambient conditions represent the effects of katabatic flow, and were modelled as a function of flow path length calculated from glacier digital elevation models. Near-surface wind speeds (ug) were classified as either katabatic or channelled, and were mod- elled based on Prandtl flow (for katabatic winds) or gradient wind speeds. Models for atmospheric transmissivity, snow and ice albedo, and incoming longwave radiation were tested and developed from observations of incident and reflected shortwave radiation (K# and K") and incoming longwave (L#) radiation. Data from a regional climate network were used to run a degree-day model, a radiation-indexed degree-day model, a simple energy balance model (including tuned parameters for turbulent exchange) and two full energy balance models (incorporating stability corrections, with and without cor- rections for katabatic effects on air temperature and humidity). Modelled ii Abstract melt was compared to mass balance measurements of seasonal snow and ice melt. Models were also compared based on their ability to predict date of snow disappearance, given an initial snowpack water equivalence. The degree-day model outperformed the simple energy balance and radiation- indexed degree-day approaches, while the full energy balance model without katabatic boundary layer corrections yielded the lowest errors. iii Table of Contents Abstract ii Table of Contents iv List of Tables viii List of Figures xii List of Symbols xvi Acknowledgements xx 1 Introduction1 1.1 Glacier Melt Modelling...................... 2 1.2 Meteorological Inputs for Melt Modelling ........... 4 1.3 Melt Model Selection....................... 5 1.4 Thesis Objectives and Outline.................. 6 2 Study Area and Data Collection9 2.1 Meteorological Data ....................... 9 2.1.1 Glacier Meteorological Stations............. 9 2.1.2 Ambient Meteorological Stations............ 17 2.1.3 Meteorological Data Post-Processing.......... 17 2.2 Mass Balance and Snowline Retreat Observations . 18 2.2.1 Winter Balance...................... 20 2.2.2 Summer Ablation..................... 21 2.2.3 Snowline Retreat..................... 21 iv Table of Contents 3 Distributing Meteorological Fields, Part 1 28 3.1 Introduction............................ 28 3.2 Methods.............................. 31 3.2.1 Temperature ....................... 31 3.2.2 Vapour Pressure ..................... 33 3.3 Results............................... 35 3.3.1 Temperature ....................... 35 3.3.2 Vapour Pressure ..................... 48 3.4 Discussion............................. 57 3.5 Conclusions............................ 58 4 Distributing Meteorological Fields, Part 2 60 4.1 Introduction............................ 60 4.2 Methods.............................. 62 4.2.1 Data Preparation and Modelling Approach . 62 4.2.2 Katabatic Wind Speed Modelling............ 64 4.2.3 Non-katabatic Wind Speed Models........... 68 4.3 Results............................... 68 4.3.1 Glacier Wind Characterization............. 68 4.3.2 Surface Winds in Katabatic Flow............ 73 4.3.3 Surface Winds in Non-Katabatic Flow......... 79 4.3.4 Modelled Surface Wind Speeds............. 79 4.3.5 Comparison of Wind Speed Models........... 88 4.4 Discussion............................. 89 4.5 Conclusion ............................ 92 5 Distributing Meteorological Fields, Part 3 93 5.1 Introduction............................ 93 5.2 Methods.............................. 95 5.2.1 Temperature ....................... 99 5.2.2 Vapour Pressure ..................... 99 5.2.3 Wind Speed........................100 5.3 Results...............................101 v Table of Contents 5.3.1 Temperature .......................101 5.3.2 Vapour Pressure .....................106 5.3.3 Wind Speed........................109 5.3.4 Application........................113 5.4 Discussion.............................116 5.5 Conclusions............................118 6 Radiation Modelling 119 6.1 Solar Radiation and Transmissivity . 119 6.1.1 Background and Objectives . 119 6.1.2 Methods and Data....................121 6.1.3 Results ..........................125 6.1.4 Discussion.........................137 6.2 Albedo...............................138 6.2.1 Background and Objectives . 138 6.2.2 Methods..........................140 6.2.3 Results ..........................143 6.2.4 Discussion.........................147 6.3 Longwave Radiation .......................150 6.3.1 Background and Objectives . 150 6.3.2 Methods..........................151 6.3.3 Results ..........................153 6.3.4 Discussion.........................169 6.4 Recommendations ........................170 7 Melt Model Test Data 172 7.1 Background and Objectives...................172 7.2 Data and Methods........................176 7.2.1 Snow Density Modelling . 176 7.2.2 Interpolation of Initial SWE . 178 7.2.3 Mass Balance and Snowline Retreat Data . 179 7.2.4 Error Analysis ......................179 7.3 Results...............................181 vi Table of Contents 7.3.1 Snow Density Modelling . 181 7.3.2 Initial SWE Interpolation . 186 7.3.3 Surface Temperature Loggers and Snowline Retreat . 188 7.3.4 Error Analysis ......................193 7.4 Discussion and Recommendations . 194 8 Melt Modelling 197 8.1 Introduction............................197 8.2 Study Areas and Climate Data . 199 8.3 Melt Modelling Methods.....................200 8.3.1 Degree-day Model ....................200 8.3.2 Radiation-indexed Degree-day Model . 200 8.3.3 Simplified Energy Balance Model . 203 8.3.4 Full Energy Balance Model . 208 8.4 Meteorological Inputs ......................213 8.4.1 Temperature .......................214 8.4.2 Vapour Pressure .....................214 8.4.3 Wind Speed........................215 8.5 Melt Model Comparisons ....................218 8.6 Results...............................218 8.6.1 Modelled Melt and Benchmark Evaluations . 218 8.6.2 Full Energy Balance Model Analyses . 224 8.7 Discussion.............................227 8.8 Conclusions............................229 9 Conclusion 231 9.1 Summary of Key Findings....................231 9.1.1 Glacier Meteorology ...................231 9.1.2 Radiative Fluxes.....................233 9.1.3 Melt Model Test Data..................233 9.1.4 Glacier Melt Modelling . 234 9.2 Suggestions for Future Research . 235 References Cited 238 vii List of Tables Table 1.1 Glacier energy balance studies ............. 8 Table 2.1 Location and instrumentation of glacier AWS . 10 Table 2.2 Summary of on-glacier AWS periods of operation . 16 Table 2.3 Meteorological instrumentation specifications. 16 Table 2.4 Ambient AWS locations and data source . 17 Table 2.5 Dates of initial snow water equivalence (SWE0) mea- surements for mass balance and snow course sites . 19 Table 2.6 Snow course locations and ID.............. 19 Table 2.7 Specifications of submersible temperature loggers used in this study ....................... 22 Table 3.1 Mean ambient and observed temperatures at glacier AWS............................ 40 Table 3.2 Piecewise temperature model parameters . 41 Table 3.3 Elevation of 0◦C isotherm................ 47 Table 3.4 Mean ambient and observed vapour pressures at glacier AWS............................ 49 Table 3.5 Vapour pressure model parameters........... 53 Table 4.1 Directional constancy (dc) and mean observed wind −1 speeds (ug, in m s ) at glacier AWS. ......... 70 Table 4.2 Optimized eddy diffusivities and model errors for Prandtl wind speed model .................... 77 Table 4.3 Surface wind speed models for channeled katabatic flows 78 viii List of Tables Table 4.4 Surface wind speed model coefficients and modelled errors for channeled flows ................ 79 Table 4.5 Mean (x, m s−1) and standard deviation (σ, m s−1) in observed and modelled uNK , uK , and uKc. 87 Table 4.6 Modelled wind speed errors using E-P methods and a representative station .................. 88 Table 5.1 Fitted coefficients for estimating Tg, eg, and ug, ob- tained from glacier boundary layer analyses . 98 Table 5.2 Summary of models for estimating piecewise temper- ature transfer functions from topographic indices . 103 Table 5.3 Temperature transfer function coefficients estimated from
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