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Flight Safety Analysis Handbook Federal Aviation Administration Flight Safety Analysis Handbook Version 1.0 Federal Aviation Administration Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation 800 Independence Avenue, Room 331 Washington, DC 20591 Version 1.0 September 2011 NOTICE Use of trade names or names of manufacturers in this document does not constitute an official endorsement of such products or manufacturers, either expressed or implied, by the Federal Aviation Administration. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Purpose ................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Scope ...................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Authority ................................................................................................................ 2 2.0 DEFINITIONS AND ACRONYMS ................................................................................. 3 2.1 Definitions.............................................................................................................. 3 2.2 Acronyms ............................................................................................................... 9 3.0 BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................. 11 3.1 A Discussion of Risk ........................................................................................... 11 3.2 Risk Management ................................................................................................ 12 3.3 Overview of Launch and Reentry QRA Methods................................................ 12 3.3.1 Three-Prong Approach ............................................................................ 12 3.3.2 A Two-Tiered Approach for a QRA ........................................................ 13 4.0 GENERAL LAUNCH AND REENTRY RISK ANALYSIS PROCEDURE ................ 15 4.1 Identify Hazards ................................................................................................... 15 4.2 Develop Failure Probabilities .............................................................................. 16 4.3 Develop Breakup State Vectors for Debris Generating Events ........................... 16 4.4 Define Debris Characteristics .............................................................................. 17 4.5 Propagate Debris to Impact .................................................................................. 17 4.6 Develop Impact Probability Distributions ........................................................... 17 4.7 Compute Impact Probability ................................................................................ 18 4.8 Compute Casualty Expectation ............................................................................ 19 4.9 Cumulative Procedure to Compute Risks ............................................................ 19 4.9.1 Use of Event Trees ................................................................................... 21 4.9.2 Generic Failure/Vehicle Response Mode Descriptions ........................... 26 4.9.3 Overview of the Footprint Method .......................................................... 27 4.9.4 Overview of the Corridor Method ........................................................... 30 4.9.5 Overview of the Bivariate Normal Method for Jettisoned Debris ........... 31 5.0 PROBABILITY OF FAILURE ....................................................................................... 34 5.1 Purpose ................................................................................................................. 34 5.2 Input Data Sources ............................................................................................... 34 5.3 Minimum Features ............................................................................................... 34 5.4 Introduction to Probability of Failure Modeling .................................................. 35 5.5 Historical Flight Experience for New Launch Vehicles ...................................... 37 5.5.1 Definition of a Failure.............................................................................. 41 5.5.2 Distinguishing Between New and Experienced Developers ................... 41 5.5.3 Staged-based Statistics ............................................................................. 42 5.5.4 Distinguishing Between New and Derived Vehicles ............................... 43 5.6 Methods to Estimate Vehicle Failure Probability ................................................ 44 i 5.6.1 Top-Down Approach for a Whole Vehicle.............................................. 44 5.6.2 Top-Down Approach for a Vehicle Stage ............................................... 50 5.6.3 A Bayesian Method ................................................................................. 51 5.6.4 “Bottom Up” Reliability and PRA Approach.......................................... 59 5.7 Probability of Failure Allocation ......................................................................... 62 5.7.1 Allocation to Flight Time ........................................................................ 62 5.7.2 Allocation to Vehicle Response Modes................................................... 80 5.8 Weighting Flight History ..................................................................................... 85 6.0 CASUALTY AREA ........................................................................................................ 87 6.1 Purpose ................................................................................................................. 87 6.2 Minimum Features ............................................................................................... 87 6.3 Modeling Discussion ........................................................................................... 88 6.4 Ballistic Coefficient ............................................................................................. 89 6.4.1 Spherical Objects ..................................................................................... 92 6.4.2 Cylindrical Objects .................................................................................. 93 6.4.3 Plate Shaped Objects and All Other Shapes idealized as Rectangular Boxes 93 6.4.4 Thin Plate Shaped Objects with High Aspect Ratios .............................. 94 6.5 Inert Debris Effects .............................................................................................. 94 6.5.1 Inert Debris Effects on People in the Open ............................................. 94 6.5.2 Inert Debris Effects on People in Structures.......................................... 113 6.6 Explosive Debris Effects on People in the Open and in Shelters ...................... 118 6.6.1 Yield from Explosions of Impacting Propellant or Stages .................... 118 6.6.2 Effective Casualty Areas Due to Overpressure from Explosive Impacts125 6.6.3 Effective Casualty Areas Due to Fragment Throw from Explosive Impacts 132 7.0 DEBRIS LISTS .............................................................................................................. 134 7.1 Purpose ............................................................................................................... 134 7.2 Input Data Sources ............................................................................................. 134 7.3 Minimum Features ............................................................................................. 135 7.4 Modeling Discussion ......................................................................................... 139 7.4.1 Basic Casualty Area Trends................................................................... 139 8.0 VEHICLE TRAJECTORY MODELING...................................................................... 142 8.1 Purpose ............................................................................................................... 142 8.2 Input Data Sources ............................................................................................. 142 8.3 Minimum Features ............................................................................................. 142 8.4 Modeling Discussion ......................................................................................... 143 8.4.1 Vehicle Guidance and Performance Uncertainty................................... 143 8.4.2 Modeling Using Composite Trajectories............................................... 144 8.4.3 Modeling Using Covariance Matrices ................................................... 145 8.4.4 Vehicle Malfunction Turns.................................................................... 150 8.4.5 Random Attitude Turns ......................................................................... 156 9.0 POPULATION MODELING ........................................................................................ 157 ii 9.1 Purpose ............................................................................................................... 157 9.2 Input Data Sources ............................................................................................. 157 9.3 Minimum Modeling Features ............................................................................ 158 9.4 Modeling
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