Copyright by Monica Cristina Medel 2012 The Report Committee for Monica Cristina Medel Certifies that this is the approved version of the following report: Bleeding Mexico: An Analysis of Cartels Evolution and Drug-Related Bloodshed APPROVED BY SUPERVISING COMMITTEE: Supervisor: Henry Dietz Chandler Stolp Bleeding Mexico: An Analysis of Cartels Evolution and Drug-Related Bloodshed by Monica Cristina Medel, BA; Journalist Report Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts and Master of Public Affairs The University of Texas at Austin August 2012 Dedication To my husband Will, who has always been the main driver and supporter of my research. Acknowledgements I am eternally grateful for all the help and support I have received from scholars at the University of Texas and several top Mexican universities, as well as eminent security experts and my fellow journalists in Mexico and the United States who continue to cover the brutal drug war. Your insights and guidance, especially during my research trips to dangerous, drug-producing corners of Mexico, were invaluable. I would especially like to thank Communications Researcher Anajilda Mondaca of Universidad de Occidente in Sinaloa, Social Psychologist Tomás Guevara of Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa, and Sociologist Luis Astorga of Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. I would also like to thank journalists Ignacio Alvarado, Alfredo Corchado, Jorge Carrasco, Manuel Carrillo, Kieran Murray and Chris Hawley. Still more thanks goes out to Intelligence Analyst Alberto Islas, and Rubén Aguilar, former spokesman for Mexican President Vicente Fox. For your readings of various drafts of this work and excellent feedback throughout this long and complicated journey, thank you to my advisors at the University of Texas, Professors Henry Dietz and Chandler Stolp. For getting me started, a special acknowledgement goes to Colombian Professor Francisco Thoumi, member of the International Narcotics Control Board (INCB). Finally, for all the logistical – not to mention emotional – support, I would like to thank my husband and wonderful chilanga friends Adriana Villegas and Gabriela Basurto. Also always there for me is Gallo, who is a wonderful listener and loyal companion, as long as you don’t wake him up too early. v Abstract Bleeding Mexico: An Analysis of Cartels Evolution and Drug-Related Bloodshed Monica Cristina Medel, MA; MPAff The University of Texas at Austin, 2012 Supervisor: Henry Dietz Drug-related violence in Mexico has increased exponentially in the last five years, killing near 50,000 people. Even though the country has been a producer of marijuana and opium poppy for nearly a century, it was not until the beginning of the new millennium that drug violence skyrocketed. Up until now, academic studies and policy papers have focused primarily on the political changes Mexico underwent over the last decade and on ingrained corruption as the central factors in explaining the increased violence. But such a jump in homicides rates, as well as the sheer brutality of the violence involved, also reflects the evolution of the country’s drug organizations – which went from being merely feared and ruthless drug producers and smugglers to far-reaching criminal empires that now dominate all aspects of the illicit drug underworld in the Americas. Many have become so powerful that they have formed their own armies of hit men and foot soldiers that operate like full-fledged paramilitary groups protecting their territories and smuggling routes to American soil. Further feeding the cycle of murders in Mexico is an increasing diversification of drug gangs’ businesses, which now range from vi drug production and smuggling to extortion, kidnapping and human trafficking. Through an historical, spatial and statistical analysis, this study sets out to deconstruct the current wave of Mexican drug violence, show how it is spreading and why, and how that reflects the evolution of Mexican drug organizations. vii Table of Contents List of Tables ......................................................................................................... xi List of Figures....................................................................................................... xii List of Illustrations............................................................................................... xiv Introduction..............................................................................................................1 Chapter 1: A Tale of Two Countries .......................................................................7 It Started in Sinaloa.........................................................................................7 The Impact of the Prohibition Era ................................................................10 The Impact of World War II .........................................................................13 The Rise of Mexico’s Cartels .......................................................................17 The Camarena Case ......................................................................................21 The Emergence of Cocaine and the Restructuring of the Cartels.................24 The New Millennium....................................................................................27 Drug Kingpin CEOs......................................................................................29 The Recomposition of Drug Organizations ..................................................33 Killings and Business....................................................................................36 The All-Out War on Drugs ...........................................................................37 Looking For a New Strategy?.......................................................................41 Chapter 2: Exploring Marijuana and Opium Fields in Mexico: The Environmental and Human Variables that Make Cultivation Suitable .................................44 Studies on Cultivation Patterns of Illegal Drugs ..........................................44 Species Distribution Models.........................................................................46 Materials and Methods..................................................................................50 Study system – Cannabis Sativa and Papaver Somniferum ................50 Marijuana and Opium Data..................................................................51 Environmental Predictors ....................................................................54 Statistical Methods...............................................................................60 Results...........................................................................................................61 viii Marijuana Case ....................................................................................61 OLS.............................................................................................61 GWR ...........................................................................................64 Opium Case..........................................................................................68 OLS.............................................................................................68 GWR ...........................................................................................70 Discussion.....................................................................................................71 Chapter 3: A Spatial and Statistical Analysis of Drug-Related Bloodshed...........80 An Avalanche of Killings .............................................................................80 Violence and Organized Crime.....................................................................82 Methods ........................................................................................................93 OLS......................................................................................................93 Results...........................................................................................................96 Spatial Analysis ...................................................................................99 Results.........................................................................................................100 Discussion...................................................................................................103 Chapter 4: Case Study: Ciudad Juárez, a Failed Case of Local Governance ......107 Mexico by the Numbers..............................................................................108 The Rise of the Maquila..............................................................................112 Free Municipalities? ...................................................................................116 Civil Society Steps In .................................................................................120 Analysis: factors contributing to the Rise of Drug Cartels.........................127 Analysis: Municipalities Lag Behind .........................................................135 Conclusions: Slow Reform, Lingering PRI Effects, Horrific Violence .....142 Recommendations.......................................................................................149 Chapter 5: Implications and Concluding Observations .......................................152 Implications ................................................................................................152