Danesh Prakash Chacko Map & Data Specialist INVOKE § Basics Electoral System of Malaysia

§ Assign Voters Creating Constituency

§ Redelineation Mechanism

§ Findings Impact of Redelineation

How did We Analyse? Methodology § First Past the Post System

§ Single Member for every constituency

§ The winner who gets the most votes (not necessarily 50%) in an area WINS

§ Popular vote doesn’t count

§ Win the right number of seats in right locations

Basics Electoral System of Malaysia Parliamentary Seat

State Seat (DUN)

Polling District (DM)

You as a Locality voter

Assign Voters Creating Constituency § Redelineation is the redrawing constituency to ensure equality of voters and fair representation

§ Guided by principles of 13th schedule

§ Is conducted after 8 years from the previous exercise

§ Aim to rebalance constituencies due to population change and distribution

§ Involves movement of polling stations

Redelineation Mechanism GE 13 Boundaries of DUNs 2nd Proposal of Selangor DUNs

EC (SPR Malaysia) has changed boundaries of Bukit Melawati, and

In GE 13, you have voted in Ijok, in GE 14, you will be voting in Jeram

Redelineation Mechanism GERRYMANDERING

GE 13 Boundaries of Selangor DUNs 2nd Proposal of Selangor DUNs

EC’s proposal moved out Pakatan supporters out of Sijangkang and (PAS seats) and pack them into (DAP seat)

Finding Impact of Redelineation MALAPPORTIONMENT

Post Redelineation Parliamentary Size ()

140000

120000

100000

80000

60000

VOTER POPULATION 40000

20000

0 142 157 151 153 155 141 156 148 154 143 149 164 146 140 165 147 145 144 163 152 150 160 161 158 159 162 PARLIAMENT CODE

Labis (P.142) and Gelang Patah (P.162) elects one representative each. Gelang Patah Voter value is 1/3 of Labis

Finding Impact of Redelineation § Selangor witnessed dramatic racial reengineering.

§ Johor experience a different pattern in ethnic composition changes. Ahmad Maslan seat of Pontian witness an increase of Chinese Voters

§ EC quietly altered the shape some of the polling districts in , and Johor.

§ My seat not touched by redelineation: What should I do?

Findings Impact of Redelineation § Calculations

§ Prepare data from Laporan SPR

§ Combine with latest political preference data

§ Project voter preferences based on latest political climate

Finding Impact of Redelineation § Advance Considerations

§ Identify name and shape change of every polling district

§ Identify newly created polling districts

Finding Impact of Redelineation § Advance Considerations

§ Comparing Pelan Warta for GE 13 against Pelan Warta 2016. Notice nationwide changes (Belah Bahagi DM)

EC Map as of 2003 EC Map as of 2016 Finding Impact of Redelineation § Redelineation did not rectify imbalances of constituency sizes

§ Redelineation favoured certain ethnic groups

§ Redelineation failed to address local ties

§ Current electoral system vulnerable to manipulations of redelineation

§ Would redelineation change significantly the outcome of GE14?

Conclusion Where to next?