Danesh Prakash Chacko Map & Data Specialist INVOKE Malaysia § Basics Electoral System of Malaysia § Assign Voters Creating Constituency § Redelineation Mechanism § Findings Impact of Redelineation How did We Analyse? Methodology § First Past the Post System § Single Member for every constituency § The winner who gets the most votes (not necessarily 50%) in an area WINS § Popular vote doesn’t count § Win the right number of seats in right locations Basics Electoral System of Malaysia Parliamentary Seat State Seat (DUN) Polling District (DM) You as a Locality voter Assign Voters Creating Constituency § Redelineation is the redrawing constituency to ensure equality of voters and fair representation § Guided by principles of 13th schedule § Is conducted after 8 years from the previous exercise § Aim to rebalance constituencies due to population change and distribution § Involves movement of polling stations Redelineation Mechanism GE 13 Boundaries of Selangor DUNs 2nd Proposal of Selangor DUNs EC (SPR Malaysia) has changed boundaries of Bukit Melawati, Ijok and Jeram In GE 13, you have voted in Ijok, in GE 14, you will be voting in Jeram Redelineation Mechanism GERRYMANDERING GE 13 Boundaries of Selangor DUNs 2nd Proposal of Selangor DUNs EC’s proposal moved out Pakatan supporters out of Sijangkang and Morib (PAS seats) and pack them into Banting (DAP seat) Finding Impact of Redelineation MALAPPORTIONMENT Post Redelineation Parliamentary Size (Johor) 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 VOTER POPULATION 40000 20000 0 142 157 151 153 155 141 156 148 154 143 149 164 146 140 165 147 145 144 163 152 150 160 161 158 159 162 PARLIAMENT CODE Labis (P.142) and Gelang Patah (P.162) elects one representative each. Gelang Patah Voter value is 1/3 of Labis Finding Impact of Redelineation § Selangor witnessed dramatic racial reengineering. § Johor experience a different pattern in ethnic composition changes. Ahmad Maslan seat of Pontian witness an increase of Chinese Voters § EC quietly altered the shape some of the polling districts in Terengganu, Pahang and Johor. § My seat not touched by redelineation: What should I do? Findings Impact of Redelineation § Calculations § Prepare data from Laporan SPR § Combine with latest political preference data § Project voter preferences based on latest political climate Finding Impact of Redelineation § Advance Considerations § Identify name and shape change of every polling district § Identify newly created polling districts Finding Impact of Redelineation § Advance Considerations § Comparing Pelan Warta for GE 13 against Pelan Warta 2016. Notice nationwide changes (Belah Bahagi DM) EC Map as of 2003 EC Map as of 2016 Finding Impact of Redelineation § Redelineation did not rectify imbalances of constituency sizes § Redelineation favoured certain ethnic groups § Redelineation failed to address local ties § Current electoral system vulnerable to manipulations of redelineation § Would redelineation change significantly the outcome of GE14? Conclusion Where to next?.