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Flying Blind

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Flying Blind ! Flying Blind Governments’ hasty decisions to lock down Canadians while damaging public health and the economy November 30, 2020 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ..............................................................................................................i Charter violations are real ..............................................................................................iv Lockdown measures across Canada ...................................................................................ix Official scepticism at first ...............................................................................................ix December 2019 ...........................................................................................................ix January 23 ...................................................................................................................ix January 29 ....................................................................................................................x January 31 ...................................................................................................................xi February 4 ..................................................................................................................xii February 21 ................................................................................................................xii February 25 ................................................................................................................xii March 5 ......................................................................................................................xii March 9 ......................................................................................................................xii March 11 ...................................................................................................................xiii A complete policy reversal ...........................................................................................xiii The lockdown ...............................................................................................................xiv March 15 ....................................................................................................................xv States of emergency begin .............................................................................................xv March 15 ....................................................................................................................xv March 16 ...................................................................................................................xvi March 18 ...................................................................................................................xvi March 22 ...................................................................................................................xvi April 6 .......................................................................................................................xvi !i The effects of lockdown are felt ..................................................................................xvii Table I: Loss of businesses in Canada, March 2019 to July 2020. ...........................xix Analysis of lockdown measures .......................................................................................xix 1) Politicians and health officials continued to call for “flattening the curve,” even well after COVID-19 hospitalizations in the provinces had peaked .....................................xx Table II: Hospital Bed Capacity in Canada, as per Canadian Institute for Health Information. Hospital Beds Staffed and In Operation, 2018–2019. Ottawa, ON: CIHI; 2020. ...............................................................................................................xxi 2) Canadian governments failed to account for the predictable negative consequences of its lockdown measures. ...........................................................................................xxii Lockdown measures violate our Charter Freedoms .......................................................xxiii Inaccurate claims about the lethality of COVID-19 ........................................................xxx A reassessment of COVID-19 lethality .......................................................................xxxvii Table IV – All Canada, deaths from leading causes of death. January 1 to July 31: 2016-2020 .............................................................................................................xxxix Table V – Mortality rates by region, January 1 to July 31: 2016-2020 ......................xl Table VI – Mortality rates by age group, January 1 to July 31: 2016-2020 ...............xl Lockdown harms ...............................................................................................................xli Economic harms ............................................................................................................xli Lockdown harms to life and society .............................................................................xlv 1) Death from Delayed Medical Treatment: Cancelled surgeries ....................................l 2) Death from cancelled or delayed diagnosis ..............................................................lvi Table VII – Ontario: Diagnostic Imaging Procedures (DIPs) performed July 2019 to July 2020 ..................................................................................................................lvii !ii The number of Diagnostic Imaging Procedures (DIPs) performed in Ontario dropped sharply in March. DIPs were half their usual number in April and May, and even by July had not returned to previous levels. .....................................................................lviii 3) Death from Suicide ..................................................................................................lxii 4) Death from accidental drug overdoses ....................................................................lxvi British Columbia .....................................................................................................lxvi Alberta ....................................................................................................................lxvii National .................................................................................................................lxviii Steam-driven data collection in a digital age ..................................................................lxix 1) Timeliness ...........................................................................................................lxix 2) The dilemma of classification .............................................................................lxix 3) Changing data input .............................................................................................lxx Were other approaches considered? ........................................................................lxxv Protect the vulnerable, allow less-vulnerable people to work ....................................lxxv The WHO warns about lockdowns – Canada has yet to listen ...............................lxxviii Section Five – Flying Blind ............................................................................................lxxx Science, Experts and Political Leadership ..................................................................lxxx 1) Decisions made in the belief that they were informed by science were often quickly revealed as ill-conceived, yet were continued – some, such as renewed lockdown measures in several provinces, to this day. ........................................................lxxxiii 2) Not only was there too little information, there was insufficient consideration of what information there was: Decisions were made precipitately, in great haste. ........ lxxxiv Lockdowns ..................................................................................................................lxxxix Borders ...............................................................................................................................xc !iii Masks ...............................................................................................................................xcii Protests ............................................................................................................................xciv Testing .............................................................................................................................xciv !iv Executive Summary This paper argues that: 1) Canadian governments at all three levels did not properly and adequately consider the specific nature and the full extent of lockdown harms that would result from the Charter infringements that governments initiated. Governments assumed, based on speculation and predictions, not on evidence, that the Charter violations would prevent large numbers of deaths; they assumed that the number of people who would otherwise have died was huge; they did not think much (or at all) about lockdown harms, nor whether these harms would be greater than the benefits. 2) The following harms of lockdowns could and should have been anticipated but were self- evidently ignored: a. Deaths from delayed medical treatment; b. Deaths from delayed diagnosis; c. Deaths from suicide; d. Deaths from drug overdose. 3) The risks posed by COVID-19 have been overestimated and mischaracterized;
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