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(Imemo Ran) Russia: Arms Control, Disarmament INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES (IMEMO RAN) RUSSIA: ARMS CONTROL, DISARMAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IMEMO SUPPLEMENT TO THE RUSSIAN EDITION OF THE SIPRI YEARBOOK 2012 Preface by Alexander Dynkin Editors Alexei Arbatov and Alexandre Kaliadine Moscow IMEMO RAN 2013 УДК 327 ББК 64.4(0) Rus 95 Rus 95 Russia: arms control, disarmament and international security. IMEMO supplement to the Russian edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2012 / Ed. by Alexei Arbatov and Alexandre Kaliadine. – M., IMEMO RAN, 2013. – 200 p. ISBN 978-5-9535- 0370-9 The volume provides IMEMO contributions to the Russian edition of the 2012 SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. The contributors address issues involving transition to multilateral nuclear disarmament (engaging ‘third’ nuclear weapons states in nuclear arms negotiations; frameworks of multilateral nuclear disarmament; a possible basis of practical negotiations; BMD developments and their implications for strategic stability). This year’s edition also highlights problems of limiting international trade in small arms and light weapons; the status of the European conventional arms control regime and ways leading to meaningful conventional arms limitation arrangements in Europe; military posture of post-Soviet Central Asian states and regional security challenges. To view IMEMO RAN publications, please visit our website at http://www.imemo.ru ISBN 978-5-9535-0370-9 © ИМЭМО РАН, 2013 CONTENTS PREFACE ........................................................................................... 7 Alexander DYNKIN ACRONYMS ...................................................................................... 9 PART I. ANALYSES, FORECASTS, DISCUSSIONS 1. HOW TO CREATE A PROCESS TO MAKE MULTILATERAL NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT POSSIBLE. ACADEMIC BOARD DISCUSSES PROSPECTS OF MULTILATERAL NUCLEAR ARMS LIMITATION ................... 15 Transition to multilateral nuclear disarmament: issues and options. Abstracts ....................................................................... 16 Alexei ARBATOV Nuclear disarmament negotiations require a powerful initiating momentum ......................................................................... 26 Alexandre KALIADINE Multilateral nuclear arms regulation in terms of ‘game theory’ ....... 30 Sergey AFONTSEV Robust interdisciplinary research is required .................................... 35 Alexander RADCHUK Complex and controversial task ........................................................ 37 Vladimir BARANOVSKY 2. USA: REGIONAL COOPERATION ON BMD PROJECTS ....................................................................... 39 Natalia ROMASHKINA Asia-Pacific region (Japan, Republic of Korea, Australia, Taiwan) ......................................................................... 43 Middle East (Israel) ....................................................................... 50 4 RUSSIA AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 3. ROLE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN SOUTH ASIA: POLICY, TECHNOLOGIES, DOCTRINES .................................... 66 Petr TOPYCHKANOV Political reasons of the nuclear choice of South Asian competitors .................................................................................... 66 Development of missile programs in South Asia .......................... 69 Status and prospects for the development of nuclear arsenals of India and Pakistan ....................................................... 74 Uncertainty of the nuclear doctrines of India and Pakistan ........... 77 Problems of arms control in South Asia ........................................ 78 Conclusions ................................................................................... 79 4. SMALL ARMS, BIG PROBLEMS .............................................. 82 Natalia KALININA The conflict potential of SALW .................................................... 82 Global trade in SALW ................................................................... 90 International reporting on SALW .................................................. 96 Work done to curb SALW proliferation: timeline ...................... 104 UN Programme of Action on SALW and its history .................. 122 Conclusion ................................................................................... 132 PART II. EXPERT INSIGHTS 5. CONTEMPORARY PROBLEMS OF NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION. THE FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONFERENCE OF THE INTERNATIONAL LUXEMBOURG FORUM ON PREVENTING NUCLEAR CATASTROPHE ............................................................................ 137 Vladimir YEVSEEV 6. RUSSIAN EXPERTS ON ENGAGING CHINA IN MULTILATERAL NUCLEAR ARMS CONTROL NEGOTIATIONS ........................................................................... 145 Tatiana ANICHKINA CONTENTS 5 7. PROSPECTS OF ENGAGING INDIA AND PAKISTAN IN NUCLEAR ARMS LIMITATIONS. REVIEW OF THE CONFERENCE AT IMEMO .......................................................... 159 Dmitry CHIZHOV 8. CONVENTIONAL ARMS CONTROL IN EUROPE: IS THERE A WAY OUT OF THE STALEMATE? ...................... 164 Andrei ZAGORSKI Attempts to revitalize the CFE regime ........................................ 165 Prospects for a new agreement .................................................... 168 Parameters of a possible new agreement ..................................... 170 9. MILITARY POSTURE OF POST-SOVIET CENTRAL ASIAN STATES AND REGIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGES .......................................................... 174 Stanislaw IVANOV PART III. DOCUMENTS AND REFERENCE MATERIALS 10. KEY DOCUMENTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ON NATIONAL SECURITY, DEFENCE AND ARMS CONTROL (JANUARY-DECEMBER 2012) ................................................... 185 Tamara FARNASOVA Legislative acts ............................................................................ 185 Normative acts ............................................................................. 187 11. DECLARATION OF THE FIFTH ANNIVERSARY CONFERENCE OF THE INTERNATIONAL LUXEMBOURG FORUM ON PREVENTING NUCLEAR CATASTROPHE. CONTEMPORARY PROBLEMS OF NUCLEAR NON- PROLIFERATION (4-5 JUNE 2012, BERLIN) ............................ 194 ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS ................................................... 197 PREFACE The Institute of World Economy and International Relations presents in this volume an overview of the meeting of its Academic Board devoted to the theme of multilateral nuclear arms control. The meeting, chaired by Academician Vladimir Baranovsky, was attended by experts from other organizations and officials of federal government agencies, and addressed a broad range of issues of multilateral nuclear disarmament (engaging ‘third’ nuclear weapons states in nuclear arms negotiations; frameworks of multilateral nuclear disarmament; a possible basis of practical negotiations, etc.). A key presentation ‘Transition to multilateral nuclear disarmament: issues and options’ was made by Academician Alexei Arbatov. Issues of engaging China, India, Pakistan and other members of the ‘nuclear club’ in negotiations on nuclear arms control are also addressed in the following papers published in this volume: Cand. Sc. Petr Topychkanov’s ‘Role of nuclear weapons in South Asia: policy, technologies, doctrines’; Cand. Sc. Vladimir Yevseev’s ‘Contemporary problems of nuclear non-proliferation. The Fifth anniversary conference of the International Luxembourg Forum on preventing nuclear catastrophe’; Cand. Sc. Tatiana Anichkina’s ‘Russian experts on engaging China in multilateral nuclear arms control negotiations’; Cand. Sc. Dmitry Chizhov’s ‘Prospects of engaging India and Pakistan in nuclear arms limitations. Review of the conference at IMEMO’. BMD developments are changing the global strategic landscape. Cand. Sc. Natalia Romashkina in her article ‘USA: regional cooperation on BMD projects’ analyzes US BMD projects involving the Asia-Pacific region (Japan, Republic of Korea, Australia, and Taiwan) and the Middle East (Israel), and points out their implications for strategic stability. Problems of limiting trade in small arms and light weapons are examined by Dr. Sc. Natalia Kalinina in her piece ‘Small arms, big problems’. The European conventional arms control regime has deteriorated in recent years. Dr. Sc. Andrei Zagorski outlines ways leading to meaningful conventional arms limitation arrangements in Europe. He argues that solutions to various problems resulting from 8 PREFACE the erosion of the CFE regime will be easier and more likely to achieve within the OSCE framework through the modernization of the Vienna Document, rather than by means of negotiating a new full-scale conventional arms control agreement in Europe. Military and military-technical cooperation with post-Soviet states of Central Asia has recently become an increasingly popular subject of academic analysis and focus of media attention. Cand. Sc. Stanislaw Ivanov in his article ‘Military posture of post- Soviet Central Asian states and regional security challenges’ lists several rules of MTC which he recommends for the Central Asian region. Readers looking for source material on arms control are invited to keep an eye on information published under the heading ‘Documents and reference materials’. I would like to express my thanks to Academician Alexei Arbatov, Dr. Alexandre Kaliadine and Cand. Sc. Tatiana Anichkina for compiling and editing this volume and providing important contributions of their own. Appreciation is also due to the contributors to this volume –
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