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Russian Academy of Sciences (Imemo Ran) INSTITUTE OF WORLD ECONOMY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES (IMEMO RAN) RUSSIA: ARMS CONTROL, DISARMAMENT AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IMEMO SUPPLEMENT TO THE RUSSIAN EDITION OF THE SIPRI YEARBOOK 2013 Preface by Alexander Dynkin Editors Alexei Arbatov and Sergey Oznobishchev Editorial Assistant Tatiana Anichkina Moscow IMEMO RAN 2014 УДК 327 ББК 64.4(0) Rus 95 Rus 95 Russia: arms control, disarmament and international security. IMEMO supplement to the Russian edition of the SIPRI Yearbook 2013 / Ed. by Alexei Arbatov and Sergey Oznobishchev. – M., IMEMO RAN, 2014. – 230 p. ISBN 978-5-9535-0403-4 The volume provides IMEMO contributions to the Russian edition of the 2013 SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarmament and International Security. The contributors address issues involving future of negotiations on strategic arms, European security debates, UN Security Council role in managing the Syrian crisis, history of Syrian chemical weapons and their destruction, dangers of international terrorism, contemporary information warfare, and Russia-CIS military cooperation. This year’s edition also highlights problems of technology transfer in Russia, military cooperation among BRICS countries, Luxembourg Forum’s nuclear tolerance initiative, and US-Russian cooperation beyond Nunn-Lugar program. To view IMEMO RAN publications, please visit our website at http://www.imemo.ru ISBN 978-5-9535-0403-4 © ИМЭМО РАН, 2014 CONTENTS PREFACE ........................................................................................... 7 Alexander DYNKIN ACRONYMS ...................................................................................... 9 PART I. ANALYSES, FORECASTS, DISCUSSIONS 1. STRATEGIC TALKS: NEW EMPHASES .................................. 15 Alexei ARBATOV Recent missile defense history ...................................................... 16 New threats .................................................................................... 24 New solutions ................................................................................ 28 Strategic prospects ......................................................................... 30 2. SYRIA’S CHEMICAL WEAPONS: DEVELOPMENTS AND FACTS .................................................... 34 Natalia KALININA History of Syrian chemical weapons program .............................. 35 Timeline ......................................................................................... 38 UN investigation ............................................................................ 44 US-Russian agreement .................................................................. 46 UN Security Council resolution and its implementation ............... 49 The early stages of demilitarization process and its prospects ...... 54 3. ROLE OF THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL IN MANAGING INTERNATIONAL SECURITY IN THE LIGHT OF THE SYRIAN CRISIS ...................................................................... 61 Alexander KALYADIN Need for coercive diplomacy based on international law ............. 61 Most important resourse ................................................................ 64 UN and Syrian chemical disarmament .......................................... 67 Changes needed to increase the effectiveness of the UN Security Council ............................................................... 72 From the perspective of Russia’s foreign policy ........................... 78 4 RUSSIA AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY 4. RISING THREAT OF INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM: CAUSES, COUNTERMEASURES, ROLE OF RUSSIA IN FIGHTING IT .............................................................................. 81 Stanislaw IVANOV Characteristics of present-day international terrorism .................. 81 Root causes and rise factors of international terrorism ................. 85 Role of Russia in fighting international terrorism ......................... 88 5. INFORMATION WARS OF THE 21TH CENTURY: FROM THEORY TO PRACTICE .................................................... 93 Natalia ROMASHKINA Information war and its variations ................................................. 94 Modern technologies of a cyber war ............................................. 99 Information security .................................................................... 107 International cooperation in the sphere of information security .................................................................... 110 6. THE DEBATE ON THE FUTURE OF EUROPEAN SECURITY: INTERIM BALANCE SHEET ................................. 113 Andrei ZAGORSKI Basic policy options .................................................................... 115 Major avenues for the pursuit of the debate on the future of European security .................................................................... 120 Interim balance sheet of the debate on the future of European security .................................................................... 129 7. NEW ASPECTS OF RUSSIA’S POLITICAL AND MILITARY COOPERATION WITH THE CIS COUNTRIES .......................... 131 Vadim VLADIMIROV The western region ...................................................................... 131 Situation in the South Caucasus .................................................. 137 Military-political situation in Central Asia.................................. 142 PART II. EXPERT INSIGHTS 8. TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER IN RUSSIA’S MODERN INNOVATION SYSTEM ............................................................... 153 Lyudmila PANKOVA Key milestones in the development of technology transfer in Russia ...................................................................................... 156 CONTENTS 5 The main barriers to technology transfer..................................... 162 9. NUNN-LUGAR PROGRAM HAS ENDED: WHAT’S NEXT? ............................................................................ 170 Dmitry KONUKHOV Program origins ........................................................................... 171 Beyond Nunn-Lugar: reformatting cooperation .......................... 175 10. RUSSIA’S MILITARY-TECHNICAL COOPERATION WITH BRICS COUNTRIES: KEY ASPECTS .............................. 185 Marianna YEVTODYEVA Objectives of Russia’s military-technical cooperation with BRICS countries .......................................................................... 185 Brazil and South Africa: tuning up ties ....................................... 188 Problems and prospects of MTC with China .............................. 192 Problems and prospects of MTC with India ................................ 199 11. SAFE TOLERANCE CRITERIA OF NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION REGIMES: CONFERENCE OF THE INTERNATIONAL LUXEMBURG FORUM ...................... 209 Vladimir YEVSEEV PART III. DOCUMENTS AND REFERENCE MATERIALS 12. KEY DOCUMENTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION ON NATIONAL SECURITY, DEFENCE AND ARMS CONTROL (JANUARY-DECEMBER 2013) ................................................... 223 Tamara FARNASOVA Legislative acts ............................................................................ 223 Normative acts ............................................................................. 224 ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTORS ................................................... 229 PREFACE The Institute of World Economy and International Relations presents its annual Special Supplement – Russia: Arms Control, Disarmament and International Security prepared for the Russian edition of 2013 SIPRI Yearbook. The Supplement covers the events and developments in arms control and military policy in the year 2012 – prior to the current confrontation of Russia and the West triggered by the Ukrainian crisis. This crisis is unmatched by its severity since the end of Cold War. Under these circumstances the maintaining of obligations between the USA and Russia under the 2010 New START Treaty, including inspection activities, is a welcome exception in the overall environment of curtailment of many channels of cooperation. But the prospects for the future strategic talks remain extremely uncertain and mostly depend upon the way the crisis over Ukraine will be resolved. The contributors to the volume point out that in general the formation of a polycentric world continues. Contrary to the initial expectations, this process is taking place in an environment of high military and political tension, expanding areas of turbulence and chaos in international relations. This is interpreted by some analysts as an evidence of the ‘irrelevance’ of the United Nations and its Security Council. While this is an exaggeration, the problem of strengthening the mechanisms of international institutions in arms control and security is definitely an important and urgent issue. The deep crisis did not affect significantly some other key security activities, in particular the elimination of the Syrian chemical weapons. The positive outcome of this remarkable cooperative effort will definitely serve the goal of strengthening the Chemical Weapons Convention. Under present circumstances an additional importance should be attributed to the reinforcement of the existing structures of European security and to the search of the new approaches to strengthen it. The very fundamental analyses of this issue is provided in this volume. There are many other relevant topics analyzed in the Supplement – the ways of enhancing the information security, the struggle against international terrorism, the future of the Nunn- 8 PREFACE Lugar program, the view upon the
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