Some Dynamics of Signaling Games
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Use of Mixed Signaling Strategies in International Crisis Negotiations
USE OF MIXED SIGNALING STRATEGIES IN INTERNATIONAL CRISIS NEGOTIATIONS DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Unislawa M. Wszolek, B.A., M.A. ***** The Ohio State University 2007 Dissertation Committee: Approved by Brian Pollins, Adviser Daniel Verdier Adviser Randall Schweller Graduate Program in Political Science ABSTRACT The assertion that clear signaling prevents unnecessary war drives much of the recent developments in research on international crises signaling, so much so that this work has aimed at identifying types of clear signals. But if clear signals are the only mechanism for preventing war, as the signaling literature claims, an important puzzle remains — why are signals that combine both carrot and stick components sent and why are signals that are partial or ambiguous sent. While these signals would seemingly work at cross-purposes undermining the signaler’s goals, actually, we observe them frequently in crises that not only end short of war but also that realize the signaler’s goals. Through a game theoretic model, this dissertation theorizes that because these alternatives to clear signals increase the attractiveness, and therefore the likelihood, of compliance they are a more cost-effective way to show resolve and avoid unnecessary conflict than clear signals. In addition to building a game theoretic model, an additional contribution of this thesis is to develop a method for observing mixed versus clear signaling strategies and use this method to test the linkage between signaling and crisis outcomes. Results of statistical analyses support theoretical expectations: clear signaling strategies might not always be the most effective way to secure peace, while mixed signaling strategies can be an effective deterrent. -
Equilibrium Refinements
Equilibrium Refinements Mihai Manea MIT Sequential Equilibrium I In many games information is imperfect and the only subgame is the original game. subgame perfect equilibrium = Nash equilibrium I Play starting at an information set can be analyzed as a separate subgame if we specify players’ beliefs about at which node they are. I Based on the beliefs, we can test whether continuation strategies form a Nash equilibrium. I Sequential equilibrium (Kreps and Wilson 1982): way to derive plausible beliefs at every information set. Mihai Manea (MIT) Equilibrium Refinements April 13, 2016 2 / 38 An Example with Incomplete Information Spence’s (1973) job market signaling game I The worker knows her ability (productivity) and chooses a level of education. I Education is more costly for low ability types. I Firm observes the worker’s education, but not her ability. I The firm decides what wage to offer her. In the spirit of subgame perfection, the optimal wage should depend on the firm’s beliefs about the worker’s ability given the observed education. An equilibrium needs to specify contingent actions and beliefs. Beliefs should follow Bayes’ rule on the equilibrium path. What about off-path beliefs? Mihai Manea (MIT) Equilibrium Refinements April 13, 2016 3 / 38 An Example with Imperfect Information Courtesy of The MIT Press. Used with permission. Figure: (L; A) is a subgame perfect equilibrium. Is it plausible that 2 plays A? Mihai Manea (MIT) Equilibrium Refinements April 13, 2016 4 / 38 Assessments and Sequential Rationality Focus on extensive-form games of perfect recall with finitely many nodes. An assessment is a pair (σ; µ) I σ: (behavior) strategy profile I µ = (µ(h) 2 ∆(h))h2H: system of beliefs ui(σjh; µ(h)): i’s payoff when play begins at a node in h randomly selected according to µ(h), and subsequent play specified by σ. -
Recent Advances in Understanding Competitive Markets
Recent Advances in Understanding Competitive Markets Chris Shannon Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley March 4, 2002 1 Introduction The Arrow-Debreu model of competitive markets has proven to be a remark- ably rich and °exible foundation for studying an array of important economic problems, ranging from social security reform to the determinants of long-run growth. Central to the study of such questions are many of the extensions and modi¯cations of the classic Arrow-Debreu framework that have been ad- vanced over the last 40 years. These include dynamic models of exchange over time, as in overlapping generations or continuous time, and under un- certainty, as in incomplete ¯nancial markets. Many of the most interesting and important recent advances have been spurred by questions about the role of markets in allocating resources and providing opportunities for risk- sharing arising in ¯nance and macroeconomics. This article is intended to give an overview of some of these more recent developments in theoretical work involving competitive markets, and highlight some promising areas for future work. I focus on three broad topics. The ¯rst is the role of asymmetric informa- tion in competitive markets. Classic work in information economics suggests that competitive markets break down in the face of informational asymme- 0 tries. Recently these issues have been reinvestigated from the vantage point of more general models of the market structure, resulting in some surpris- ing results overturning these conclusions and clarifying the conditions under which perfectly competitive markets can incorporate informational asymme- tries. The second concentrates on the testable implications of competitive markets. -
CONTENT2 2.Pages
DRAFT PROPOSITIONAL CONTENT in SIGNALS (for Special Issue Studies in the History and Philosophy of Science C ) Brian Skyrms and Jeffrey A. Barrett Introduction We all think that humans are animals, that human language is a sophisticated form of animal signaling, and that it arises spontaneously due to natural processes. From a naturalistic perspective, what is fundamental is what is common to signaling throughout the biological world -- the transfer of information. As Fred Dretske put it in 1981, "In the beginning was information, the word came later." There is a practice of signaling with information transfer that settles into some sort of a pattern, and eventually what we call meaning or propositional content crystallizes out. The place to start is to study the evolution, biological or cultural, of information transfer in its most simple and tractable forms. But once this is done, naturalists need first to move to evolution of more complex forms of information transfer. And then to an account of the crystallization process that gives us meaning. There often two kinds of information in the same signal: (1) information about the state of the world that the signaler observes (2) information about the act that the receiver will perform on receiving the signal. [See Millikan (1984), Harms (2004), Skyrms (2010)]. The meaning that crystalizes out about the states, we will single out here as propositional meaning. The simplest account that comes to mind will not quite do, as a general account of this kind of meaning, although it may be close to the mark in especially favorable situations. -
Information Games and Robust Trading Mechanisms
Information Games and Robust Trading Mechanisms Gabriel Carroll, Stanford University [email protected] October 3, 2017 Abstract Agents about to engage in economic transactions may take costly actions to influence their own or others’ information: costly signaling, information acquisition, hard evidence disclosure, and so forth. We study the problem of optimally designing a mechanism to be robust to all such activities, here termed information games. The designer cares about welfare, and explicitly takes the costs incurred in information games into account. We adopt a simple bilateral trade model as a case study. Any trading mechanism is evaluated by the expected welfare, net of information game costs, that it guarantees in the worst case across all possible games. Dominant- strategy mechanisms are natural candidates for the optimum, since there is never any incentive to manipulate information. We find that for some parameter values, a dominant-strategy mechanism is indeed optimal; for others, the optimum is a non- dominant-strategy mechanism, in which one party chooses which of two trading prices to offer. Thanks to (in random order) Parag Pathak, Daron Acemoglu, Rohit Lamba, Laura Doval, Mohammad Akbarpour, Alex Wolitzky, Fuhito Kojima, Philipp Strack, Iv´an Werning, Takuro Yamashita, Juuso Toikka, and Glenn Ellison, as well as seminar participants at Michigan, Yale, Northwestern, CUHK, and NUS, for helpful comments and discussions. Dan Walton provided valuable research assistance. 1 Introduction A large portion of theoretical work in mechanism design, especially in the world of market design applications, has focused on dominant-strategy (or strategyproof ) mechanisms — 1 those in which each agent is asked for her preferences, and it is always in her best interest to report them truthfully, no matter what other agents are doing. -
Why Do Nations Obey International Law?
Review Essay Why Do Nations Obey International Law? The New Sovereignty: Compliance with InternationalRegulatory Agreements. By Abram Chayes" and Antonia Handler Chayes.*" Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1995. Pp. xii, 404. $49.95. Fairness in International Law and Institutions. By Thomas M. Franck.- Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1995. Pp. 500. $55.00. Harold Hongju Koh Why do nations obey international law? This remains among the most perplexing questions in international relations. Nearly three decades ago, Louis Henkin asserted that "almost all nations observe almost all principles of international law and almost all of their obligations almost all of the time."' Although empirical work since then seems largely to have confirmed this hedged but optimistic description,2 scholars Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law, Emeritus, Harvard Law School ** President, Consensus Building Institute. Murray and Ida Becker Professor of Law; Director. Center for International Studtcs. New York University School of Law. t Gerard C. and Bernice Latrobe Smith Professor of International Law; Director. Orville H, Schell, Jr., Center for International Human Rights, Yale University. Thts Essay sketches arguments to be fleshed out in a forthcoming book, tentatively entitled WHY NATIONS OBEY: A THEORY OF COMPLIANCE WITH INTERNATIONAL LAW. Parts of this Review Essay derive from the 1997 \Vaynflete Lectures. Magdalen College, Oxford University, and a brief book review of the Chayeses volume in 91 Am. J. INT'L L. (forthcoming 1997). 1 am grateful to Glenn Edwards, Jessica Schafer. and Douglas Wolfe for splendid research assistance, and to Bruce Ackerman, Peter Balsam, Geoffrey Brennan. Paul David, Noah Feldman. Roger Hood, Andrew Hurrell, Mark Janis, Paul Kahn, Benedict Kingsbury, Tony Kronran. -
Political Game Theory Nolan Mccarty Adam Meirowitz
Political Game Theory Nolan McCarty Adam Meirowitz To Liz, Janis, Lachlan, and Delaney. Contents Acknowledgements vii Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1. Organization of the Book 2 Chapter 2. The Theory of Choice 5 1. Finite Sets of Actions and Outcomes 6 2. Continuous Outcome Spaces* 10 3. Utility Theory 17 4. Utility representations on Continuous Outcome Spaces* 18 5. Spatial Preferences 19 6. Exercises 21 Chapter 3. Choice Under Uncertainty 23 1. TheFiniteCase 23 2. Risk Preferences 32 3. Learning 37 4. Critiques of Expected Utility Theory 41 5. Time Preferences 46 6. Exercises 50 Chapter 4. Social Choice Theory 53 1. The Open Search 53 2. Preference Aggregation Rules 55 3. Collective Choice 61 4. Manipulation of Choice Functions 66 5. Exercises 69 Chapter 5. Games in the Normal Form 71 1. The Normal Form 73 2. Solutions to Normal Form Games 76 3. Application: The Hotelling Model of Political Competition 83 4. Existence of Nash Equilibria 86 5. Pure Strategy Nash Equilibria in Non-Finite Games* 93 6. Application: Interest Group Contributions 95 7. Application: International Externalities 96 iii iv CONTENTS 8. Computing Equilibria with Constrained Optimization* 97 9. Proving the Existence of Nash Equilibria** 98 10. Strategic Complementarity 102 11. Supermodularity and Monotone Comparative Statics* 103 12. Refining Nash Equilibria 108 13. Application: Private Provision of Public Goods 109 14. Exercises 113 Chapter 6. Bayesian Games in the Normal Form 115 1. Formal Definitions 117 2. Application: Trade restrictions 119 3. Application: Jury Voting 121 4. Application: Jury Voting with a Continuum of Signals* 123 5. Application: Public Goods and Incomplete Information 126 6. -
Arxiv:1612.07182V2 [Cs.CL] 5 Mar 2017 in a World Populated by Other Agents
Under review as a conference paper at ICLR 2017 MULTI-AGENT COOPERATION AND THE EMERGENCE OF (NATURAL)LANGUAGE Angeliki Lazaridou1∗, Alexander Peysakhovich2, Marco Baroni2;3 1Google DeepMind, 2Facebook AI Research, 3University of Trento [email protected], falexpeys,[email protected] ABSTRACT The current mainstream approach to train natural language systems is to expose them to large amounts of text. This passive learning is problematic if we are in- terested in developing interactive machines, such as conversational agents. We propose a framework for language learning that relies on multi-agent communi- cation. We study this learning in the context of referential games. In these games, a sender and a receiver see a pair of images. The sender is told one of them is the target and is allowed to send a message from a fixed, arbitary vocabulary to the receiver. The receiver must rely on this message to identify the target. Thus, the agents develop their own language interactively out of the need to communi- cate. We show that two networks with simple configurations are able to learn to coordinate in the referential game. We further explore how to make changes to the game environment to cause the “word meanings” induced in the game to better re- flect intuitive semantic properties of the images. In addition, we present a simple strategy for grounding the agents’ code into natural language. Both of these are necessary steps towards developing machines that are able to communicate with humans productively. 1 INTRODUCTION I tried to break it to him gently [...] the only way to learn an unknown language is to interact with a native speaker [...] asking questions, holding a conversation, that sort of thing [...] If you want to learn the aliens’ language, someone [...] will have to talk with an alien. -
Signaling Games
Signaling Games Farhad Ghassemi Abstract - We give an overview of signaling games and their relevant so- lution concept, perfect Bayesian equilibrium. We introduce an example of signaling games and analyze it. 1 Introduction In the general framework of incomplete information or Bayesian games, it is usually assumed that information is equally distributed among players; i.e. there exists a commonly known probability distribution of the unknown parameter(s) of the game. However, very often in the real life, we are confronted with games in which players have asymmetric information about the unknown parameter of the game; i.e. they have different probability distributions of the unknown parameter. As an example, consider a game in which the unknown parameter of the game can be measured by the players but with different degrees of accuracy. Those players that have access to more accurate methods of measurement are definitely in an advantageous position. In extreme cases of asymmetric information games, one player has complete information about the unknown parameter of the game while others only know it by a probability distribution. In these games, the information is completely one-sided. The informed player, for instance, may be the only player in the game who can have different types and while he knows his type, other do not (e.g. a prospect job applicant knows if he has high or low skills for a job but the employer does not) or the informed player may know something about the state of the world that others do not (e.g. a car dealer knows the quality of the cars he sells but buyers do not). -
Perfect Conditional E-Equilibria of Multi-Stage Games with Infinite Sets
Perfect Conditional -Equilibria of Multi-Stage Games with Infinite Sets of Signals and Actions∗ Roger B. Myerson∗ and Philip J. Reny∗∗ *Department of Economics and Harris School of Public Policy **Department of Economics University of Chicago Abstract Abstract: We extend Kreps and Wilson’s concept of sequential equilibrium to games with infinite sets of signals and actions. A strategy profile is a conditional -equilibrium if, for any of a player’s positive probability signal events, his conditional expected util- ity is within of the best that he can achieve by deviating. With topologies on action sets, a conditional -equilibrium is full if strategies give every open set of actions pos- itive probability. Such full conditional -equilibria need not be subgame perfect, so we consider a non-topological approach. Perfect conditional -equilibria are defined by testing conditional -rationality along nets of small perturbations of the players’ strate- gies and of nature’s probability function that, for any action and for almost any state, make this action and state eventually (in the net) always have positive probability. Every perfect conditional -equilibrium is a subgame perfect -equilibrium, and, in fi- nite games, limits of perfect conditional -equilibria as 0 are sequential equilibrium strategy profiles. But limit strategies need not exist in→ infinite games so we consider instead the limit distributions over outcomes. We call such outcome distributions per- fect conditional equilibrium distributions and establish their existence for a large class of regular projective games. Nature’s perturbations can produce equilibria that seem unintuitive and so we augment the game with a net of permissible perturbations. -
Game Theory and Scalar Implicatures
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by UCL Discovery Game Theory and Scalar Implicatures Daniel Rothschild∗ September 4, 2013 1 Introduction Much of philosophy of language and linguistics is concerned with showing what is special about language. One of Grice’s (1967/1989) contributions, against this tendency, was to treat speech as a form of rational activity, subject to the same sorts of norms and expectations that apply to all such activity. This gen- eral perspective has proved very fruitful in pragmatics. However, it is rarely explicitly asked whether a particular pragmatic phenomenon should be under- stood entirely in terms of rational agency or whether positing special linguistic principles is necessary. This paper is concerned with evaluating the degree to which a species of simple pragmatic inferences, scalar implicatures, should be viewed as a form of rational inference. A rigorous answer to this last ques- tion requires using the theoretical resources of game theory. I show that weak- dominance reasoning, a standard form of game-theoretic reasoning, allows us to cash out the derivation of simple scalar implicatures as a form of rational infer- ence. I argue that this account of the scalar implicatures is more principled and robust than other explanations in the game theory and pragmatics literature. However, we can still see that deriving Gricean implicatures on the basis of decision and game-theoretic tools is not nearly as straightforward as we might hope, and the ultimate tools needed are disquietingly powerful. ∗ This paper is a distant descendent of my first, tenative foray into these issues, “Grice, Ratio- nality, and Utterance Choice”. -
Signaling Games Y ECON 201B - Game Theory
Notes on Signaling Games y ECON 201B - Game Theory Guillermo Ordoñez UCLA February 23, 2007 1 Understanding a Signaling Game Consider the following game. This is a typical signaling game that follows the classical "beer and quiche" structure. In these notes I will discuss the elements of this particular type of games, equilibrium concepts to use and how to solve for pooling, separating, hybrid and completely mixed sequential equilibria. 1.1 Elements of the game The game starts with a "decision" by Nature, which determines whether player 1 is of type I or II with a probability p = Pr(I) (in this example we assume 1 p = 2 ). Player 1, after learning his type, must decide whether to play L or R. Since player 1 knows his type, the action will be decided conditioning on it. 0 These notes were prepared as a back up material for TA session. If you have any questions or comments,y or notice any errors or typos, please drop me a line at [email protected] 1 After player 1 moves, player 2 is able to see the action taken by player 1 but not the type of player 1. Hence, conditional on the action observed she has to decide whether to play U or D. Hence, it’spossible to de…ne strategies for each player (i) as For player 1, a mapping from types to actions 1 : I aL + (1 a)R and II bL + (1 b)R ! ! For player 2, a mapping from player 1’sactions to her own actions 2 : L xU + (1 x)D and R yU + (1 y)D ! ! In this game there is no subgame since we cannot …nd any single node where a game completely separated from the rest of the tree starts.