Selectionfree Predictions in Global Games with Endogenous
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On Games of Strategic Experimentation Dinah Rosenberg, Antoine Salomon, Nicolas Vieille
On Games of Strategic Experimentation Dinah Rosenberg, Antoine Salomon, Nicolas Vieille To cite this version: Dinah Rosenberg, Antoine Salomon, Nicolas Vieille. On Games of Strategic Experimentation. 2010. hal-00579613 HAL Id: hal-00579613 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00579613 Preprint submitted on 24 Mar 2011 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. On Games of Strategic Experimentation Dinah Rosenberg∗, Antoine Salomon† and Nicolas Vieille‡ December 15, 2010 Abstract We focus on two-player, two-armed bandit games. We analyze the joint effect on the informational spillovers between the players of the correlation between the risky arms, and the extent to which one’s experimentation results are publicly disclosed. Our main results only depend on whethert informational shocks bring good or bad news. In the latter case, there is a sense in which the marginal value of these informational spillovers is zero. Strategic experimentation issues are prevalent in most situations of social learning. In such setups, an agent may learn useful information by experimenting himself, or possibly, by observ- ing other agents. Typical applications include dynamic R&D (see e.g. Moscarini and Squin- tani (2010), Malueg and Tsutsui (1997)), competition in an uncertain environment (MacLennan (1984)), financial contracting (Bergemann and Hege (2005) ), etc. -
Use of Mixed Signaling Strategies in International Crisis Negotiations
USE OF MIXED SIGNALING STRATEGIES IN INTERNATIONAL CRISIS NEGOTIATIONS DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Unislawa M. Wszolek, B.A., M.A. ***** The Ohio State University 2007 Dissertation Committee: Approved by Brian Pollins, Adviser Daniel Verdier Adviser Randall Schweller Graduate Program in Political Science ABSTRACT The assertion that clear signaling prevents unnecessary war drives much of the recent developments in research on international crises signaling, so much so that this work has aimed at identifying types of clear signals. But if clear signals are the only mechanism for preventing war, as the signaling literature claims, an important puzzle remains — why are signals that combine both carrot and stick components sent and why are signals that are partial or ambiguous sent. While these signals would seemingly work at cross-purposes undermining the signaler’s goals, actually, we observe them frequently in crises that not only end short of war but also that realize the signaler’s goals. Through a game theoretic model, this dissertation theorizes that because these alternatives to clear signals increase the attractiveness, and therefore the likelihood, of compliance they are a more cost-effective way to show resolve and avoid unnecessary conflict than clear signals. In addition to building a game theoretic model, an additional contribution of this thesis is to develop a method for observing mixed versus clear signaling strategies and use this method to test the linkage between signaling and crisis outcomes. Results of statistical analyses support theoretical expectations: clear signaling strategies might not always be the most effective way to secure peace, while mixed signaling strategies can be an effective deterrent. -
Hierarchies of Ambiguous Beliefs∗
Hierarchies of Ambiguous Beliefs∗ David S. Ahny August 2006 Abstract We present a theory of interactive beliefs analogous to Mertens and Zamir [31] and Branden- burger and Dekel [10] that allows for hierarchies of ambiguity. Each agent is allowed a compact set of beliefs at each level, rather than just a single belief as in the standard model. We propose appropriate definitions of coherency and common knowledge for our types. Common knowledge of coherency closes the model, in the sense that each type homeomorphically encodes a compact set of beliefs over the others' types. This space universally embeds every implicit type space of ambiguous beliefs in a beliefs-preserving manner. An extension to ambiguous conditional probability systems [4] is presented. The standard universal type space and the universal space of compact continuous possibility structures are epistemically identified as subsets. JEL classification: C72; D81 Keywords: ambiguity, Knightian uncertainty, Bayesian games, universal type space 1 Introduction The idea of a player's type introduced by Harsanyi [19] provides a useful and compact represen- tation of the interactive belief structures that arise in a game, encoding a player's beliefs on some \primitive" parameter of uncertainty, her belief about the others' beliefs, their beliefs about her belief about their beliefs, and so on. Mertens and Zamir [31], hereafter MZ, constructed a universal type space encoding all internally consistent streams of beliefs, ensuring that Bayesian games with Harsanyi types lose no analytic generality.1 ∗NOTICE: this is the author's version of a work that was accepted for publication in Journal of Economic Theory. -
How Three Beginning Social Studies Teachers Enact Personal Practical Theories
UNDERSTANDING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BELIEFS ABOUT DEMOCRACY AND PRACTICE: HOW THREE BEGINNING SOCIAL STUDIES TEACHERS ENACT PERSONAL PRACTICAL THEORIES A dissertation submitted to the Kent State University College of Education, Health, and Human Services in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Andrew L. Hostetler August 2012 © Copyright 2012, by Andrew L. Hostetler All Rights Reserved ii A dissertation written by Andrew L. Hostetler B.S., Kent State University, 2002 M.Ed., Ashland University, 2008 Ph.D., Kent State University, 2012 Approved by _________________________, Director, Doctoral Dissertation Committee Alicia R. Crowe _________________________, Member, Doctoral Dissertation Committee Todd S. Hawley _________________________, Member, Doctoral Dissertation Committee Susan V. Iverson Accepted by _________________________, Director, School of Teaching, Learning and Curriculum Alexa L. Sandmann Studies _________________________, Dean, College of Education, Health and Human Services Daniel F. Mahony iii HOSTETLER, ANDREW L., Ph.D., August 2012 TEACHING, LEARNING, AND CURRICULUM STUDIES UNDERSTANDING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BELIEFS ABOUT DEMOCRACY AND PRACTICE: HOW THREE BEGINNING SOCIAL STUDIES TEACHERS ENACT PERSONAL PRACTICAL THEORIES (332 pp.) Director of Dissertation: Alicia R. Crowe, Ph.D. This study addressed the gap between teacher beliefs studies that claim beliefs of teachers influence practice and the recommendations for democratic practice presented in much of the literature -
Norms, Repeated Games, and the Role of Law
Norms, Repeated Games, and the Role of Law Paul G. Mahoneyt & Chris William Sanchiricot TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction ............................................................................................ 1283 I. Repeated Games, Norms, and the Third-Party Enforcement P rob lem ........................................................................................... 12 88 II. B eyond T it-for-Tat .......................................................................... 1291 A. Tit-for-Tat for More Than Two ................................................ 1291 B. The Trouble with Tit-for-Tat, However Defined ...................... 1292 1. Tw o-Player Tit-for-Tat ....................................................... 1293 2. M any-Player Tit-for-Tat ..................................................... 1294 III. An Improved Model of Third-Party Enforcement: "D ef-for-D ev". ................................................................................ 1295 A . D ef-for-D ev's Sim plicity .......................................................... 1297 B. Def-for-Dev's Credible Enforceability ..................................... 1297 C. Other Attractive Properties of Def-for-Dev .............................. 1298 IV. The Self-Contradictory Nature of Self-Enforcement ....................... 1299 A. The Counterfactual Problem ..................................................... 1300 B. Implications for the Self-Enforceability of Norms ................... 1301 C. Game-Theoretic Workarounds ................................................ -
Prophylaxy Copie.Pdf
Social interactions and the prophylaxis of SI epidemics on networks Géraldine Bouveret, Antoine Mandel To cite this version: Géraldine Bouveret, Antoine Mandel. Social interactions and the prophylaxis of SI epi- demics on networks. Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, 2021, 93, pp.102486. 10.1016/j.jmateco.2021.102486. halshs-03165772 HAL Id: halshs-03165772 https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-03165772 Submitted on 17 Mar 2021 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Social interactions and the prophylaxis of SI epidemics on networkssa G´eraldineBouveretb Antoine Mandel c March 17, 2021 Abstract We investigate the containment of epidemic spreading in networks from a nor- mative point of view. We consider a susceptible/infected model in which agents can invest in order to reduce the contagiousness of network links. In this setting, we study the relationships between social efficiency, individual behaviours and network structure. First, we characterise individual and socially efficient behaviour using the notions of communicability and exponential centrality. Second, we show, by computing the Price of Anarchy, that the level of inefficiency can scale up to lin- early with the number of agents. -
Interim Correlated Rationalizability
Interim Correlated Rationalizability The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters Citation Dekel, Eddie, Drew Fudenberg, and Stephen Morris. 2007. Interim correlated rationalizability. Theoretical Economics 2, no. 1: 15-40. Published Version http://econtheory.org/ojs/index.php/te/article/view/20070015 Citable link http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:3196333 Terms of Use This article was downloaded from Harvard University’s DASH repository, and is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http:// nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of- use#LAA Theoretical Economics 2 (2007), 15–40 1555-7561/20070015 Interim correlated rationalizability EDDIE DEKEL Department of Economics, Northwestern University, and School of Economics, Tel Aviv University DREW FUDENBERG Department of Economics, Harvard University STEPHEN MORRIS Department of Economics, Princeton University This paper proposes the solution concept of interim correlated rationalizability, and shows that all types that have the same hierarchies of beliefs have the same set of interim-correlated-rationalizable outcomes. This solution concept charac- terizes common certainty of rationality in the universal type space. KEYWORDS. Rationalizability, incomplete information, common certainty, com- mon knowledge, universal type space. JEL CLASSIFICATION. C70, C72. 1. INTRODUCTION Harsanyi (1967–68) proposes solving games of incomplete -
Three Essays in Mechanism Design
THREE ESSAYS IN MECHANISM DESIGN Andrei Rachkov A DISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE FACULTY OF PRINCETON UNIVERSITY IN CANDIDACY FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY RECOMMENDED FOR ACCEPTANCE BY THE DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS Adviser: Stephen Morris January 2013 c Copyright by Andrei Rachkov, 2012. All rights reserved. iii Abstract In the first and second chapters we study whether the current trend of using stronger solution concepts is justified for the optimal mechanism design. In the first chapter, we take a simple auction model and allow for type-dependent outside options. We argue that Bayesian foundation for dominant strategy mechanisms is valid when symmetry conditions are satisfied. This contrasts with monotonicity constraints used before in the literature. In the second chapter we develop the idea further by looking into the practical application of type-dependency of outside options in auctions - namely, a possibility of collusion between agents. We show that in this environment for a certain range of primitives no maxmin foundation for dominant strategy mechanisms will exist. Finally, in the last chapter we study a voting environment and non-transferable utility mechanism design. We argue that strategic voting as opposed to truthful voting may lead to higher total welfare through better realization of preference intensities in the risky environment. We also study optimal mechanisms rules, that are sufficiently close to the first best for the uniform distribution, and argue that strategic voting may be a proxy for information transmission if the opportunities to communicate preference intensities are scarce. iv Acknowledgments To my mother who imbued me with a strong sense of fairness and my father who taught me to always strive for the ideal. -
Statistical GGP Game Decomposition Aline Hufschmitt, Jean-Noël Vittaut, Nicolas Jouandeau
Statistical GGP Game Decomposition Aline Hufschmitt, Jean-Noël Vittaut, Nicolas Jouandeau To cite this version: Aline Hufschmitt, Jean-Noël Vittaut, Nicolas Jouandeau. Statistical GGP Game Decomposition. Computer Games - 7th Workshop, CGW 2018, Held in Conjunction with the 27th International Con- ference on Artificial Intelligence, IJCAI 2018, Jul 2018, Stockholm, Sweden. pp.79-97, 10.1007/978- 3-030-24337-1_4. hal-02182443 HAL Id: hal-02182443 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02182443 Submitted on 15 Oct 2019 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. In Proceedings of the IJCAI-18 Workshop on Computer Games (CGW 2018) Statistical GGP Game Decomposition Aline Hufschmitt, Jean-No¨elVittaut, and Nicolas Jouandeau LIASD - University of Paris 8, France falinehuf,jnv,[email protected] Abstract. This paper presents a statistical approach for the decompo- sition of games in the General Game Playing framework. General game players can drastically decrease game search cost if they hold a decom- posed version of the game. Previous works on decomposition rely on syn- tactical structures, which can be missing from the game description, or on the disjunctive normal form of the rules, which is very costly to compute. -
Common Belief Foundations of Global Games∗
Common Belief Foundations of Global Games Stephen Morris Hyun Song Shin Muhamet Yildiz Princeton University Bank of International Settlements M.I.T. January 2015 Abstract Complete information games– i.e., games where there is common certainty of payoffs– often have multiple rationalizable actions. What happens if the common certainty of payoffs assumption is relaxed? Consider a two player game where a player’spayoff depends on a payoff parameter. Define a player’s"rank belief" as the probability he assigns to his payoff parameter being higher than his opponent’s. We show that there is a unique rationalizable action played when there is common certainty of rank beliefs, and we argue this is the driving force behind selection results in the global games literature. We consider what happens if players’payoff parameters are derived from common and idiosyncratic terms with fat tailed distributions, and we approach complete information by shrinking the distribution of both terms. There are two cases. If the common component has a thicker tails, then there is common certainty of rank beliefs, and thus uniqueness and equilibrium selection. If the idiosyncratic terms has thicker tails, then there is approximate common certainty of payoffs, and thus multiple rationalizable actions. 1 Introduction Complete information games often have many equilibria. Even when they have a single equilibrium, they often have many actions that are rationalizable, and are therefore consistent with common This paper incorporates material from a working paper of the same title circulated in 2009 (Morris and Shin (2009)). We are grateful for comments from seminar participants at Northwestern on this iteration of the project. -
Essays on Supermodular Games, Design, and Political Theory
Selection, Learning, and Nomination: Essays on Supermodular Games, Design, and Political Theory Thesis by Laurent Mathevet In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California 2008 (Defended May 15th, 2008) ii c 2008 Laurent Mathevet All Rights Reserved iii For my parents, Denise and Ren´eMathevet iv Acknowledgements Many people have helped me along the way. Christelle has been a source of happiness, and without her uncompromising support and faith in me, I would have been miserable. My parents, to whom this dissertation is dedicated, have shown continual and unconditional support despite the distance. They are a constant source of inspiration. I also wish to thank my advisors, Federico Echenique and Matthew Jackson, for their help and encouragement. Federico has spent numerous hours advising me, meeting with me nearly every week since my second year as a graduate student. He has endeavored to extract the most out of me, discarding unpromising thoughts and results, reading my drafts countless times and demanding (countless!) rewrites. Most importantly, he found the right words in those difficult times of a PhD graduate student. Matt has also been a wonderful advisor, available, demanding, and encouraging. I have benefited greatly from his comments, which are the kind that shapes the core of a research project. Matt has funded me for several years, which allowed me to concentrate on research. I also thank him for his invitation to spend a term at Stanford to further my research. I am indebted to Preston McAfee, whose personality, charisma, and sharpness have made meetings with him among the most fruitful and enjoyable. -
Game Theory for Signal Processing in Networks
Game Theory for Signal Processing in Networks Giacomo Bacci, Samson Lasaulce, Walid Saad, and Luca Sanguinetti Abstract In this tutorial, the basics of game theory are introduced along with an overview of its most recent and emerging applications in signal processing. One of the main features of this contribution is to gather in a single paper some fundamental game-theoretic notions and tools which, over the past few years, have become widely spread over a large number of papers. In particular, both strategic-form and coalition-form games are described in details while the key connections and differences betweenthemareoutlined.Moreover,aparticularattention is also devoted to clarify the connections between strategic-form games and distributed optimization and learning algorithms. Beyond an introduction to the basic concepts andmainsolutionapproaches,severalcarefullydesigned examples are provided to allow a better understanding of how to apply the described tools. I. INTRODUCTION game theory (GT) is a branch of mathematics that enables the modeling and analysis of the interactions between several decision-makers (called players) who can have conflicting or common objectives. A game is a situation in which the benefit or cost achieved by each player from an interactive situation depends, not only on its own decisions, but also on those taken by the other players. For example, the time a car driver needs to get back home generally depends not only on the route he/she chooses but also on the decisions taken by the other drivers. Therefore, in a game, the actions and objectives of the players are tightly coupled.Untilveryrecently,GThas been used only marginally in signal processing (SP), with notable examples being some applications in robust detection and estimation [1] as well as watermarking [2] (in which the watermarking problem is seen as a game between the data embedder and the attacker).