CDRC Digest Provides an African Perspective on Developments in the Horn of § the Need to Strengthen Africa and Beyond

CDRC DIGENOVEMBERST 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3 A monthly publication of the Centre for Dialogue, Research and Cooperation (CDRC) NOVEMBER 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3 TOPICS CDRC is an international non-profit and an § The Foreign Policy independent Ethiopia-based Centre of Implications of Ethiopia’s Excellence engaged in research and Recent Internal analyses. CDRC was accorded the status and Challenges - 1 privileges of an international organization under its host country agreement with the § Ethiopia’s State of Government of the Federal Democratic Emergency - 8 Republic of Ethiopia, signed on January 16, 2012. § A Practitioner’s Guide to CDRC looks at key challenges and opportunities in the Horn of Africa, the Election of Members and sets out to influence policy ideas and decisions — a goal that is key of the Commission of the to its very fabric. A strategic guide for policy impact is the first practical African Union – 9 tool that is specifically tailored to CDRC. From this standpoint, CDRC Digest provides an African perspective on developments in the Horn of § The Need to Strengthen Africa and beyond. CDRC Digest is, therefore, designed to provide the AU Continental decision makers with strategic support tools for policy-oriented goals and Leadership - 16 shaping public opinion. § The Growing Challenge for the Work of the Three Africa Members (A-3) in the UNSC - 19 § The 2016 US Election: Executive Director: Abdeta Dribssa Beyene What Does It Mean for Deputy Executive Director: Amb. Kasahun Dender Africa? - 21 Senior Adviser: Amb. Teferra Shiawl Kidanekal Senior Researcher: Dr. Belete Belachew Yihun Centre for Dialogue, Research and Cooperation Ethio-China Friendship Avenue Medina Tower 5th floor Tel: +251 11 470 370/73 Fax: +251 11 470 0359 Email: [email protected] http://www.cdrcethiopia.org NOVEMBER 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3 The Foreign Policy Implications of was becoming more and more obvious Ethiopia’s Recent Internal as it was also becoming worrying, as Challenges Alexander Rondos, the EU Special Representative for the Horn of Africa, No one would contest what has stated so persuasively in his “The Horn become so manifest—unless one is of Africa” article this year. totally unaware of the politics of our region or is inclined, for whatever It was at a time when the situation in reason, to deny what is self-evident— the Horn of Africa was becoming murky that Ethiopia has over the last two and demanding greater scrutiny, the decades been a reliable bulwark for internal situation in Ethiopia began to peace and stability in the Horn of be uncertain. It appeared that the Africa. This role that Ethiopia has been protests affecting some parts of the playing in the region has been growing country might continue to grow, year-by-year, such that since 2015 or endangering Ethiopia’s stability. Some thereabouts it has become obvious that thought that the country in which so peace and stability in the region are much confidence had been placed was inconceivable without Ethiopia. coming apart. With some justification, far from continuing to be a bulwark of However, the recent protests and the stability in the Horn of Africa, some resultant destruction of property and thought that Ethiopia might end up loss of life have induced anxiety about triggering destabilization of the Ethiopia’s capacity to address internal precarious balance in the region. challenges. This has raised questions as to whether Ethiopia could fulfill its The need to put things in perspective continental and global obligations. It must be stated from the outset, as Even earlier, uncertainties were has also been recognized by the beginning to be expressed with respect leaders of the EPRDF, that the to the future trajectory of Ethiopia’s difficulties faced by the country have role in the region following the been essentially domestic, concerning geopolitical uncertainties surrounding issues related to governance. That the crisis in Yemen. Yemen made the sustainable peace and security in the Horn of Africa and its politics more country can be secured only through complicated than ever, and it was not sorting out the issue of governance is all that unrealistic to assume that indisputable. It is self-evident that the developments in Yemen might upend enormous promise many have seen in the leverage that Ethiopia has had in Ethiopia’s economic development over the region. That the Arabian Peninsula the last decade and a half can be was intruding in the politics of the Horn realized only when Ethiopia gets 1 NOVEMBER 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3 governance right and the benefits of diaspora, some of whom have gone development are equitably shared. beyond the pale in their proclivity for violence. The fact that such people are Two issues must immediately be tolerated in the countries where they addressed here. First, although as are domiciled reminds us that respect already indicated, Ethiopia’s recent for basic principles of international travail had its bases in domestic relations governing inter-state relations grievances; it would be downright naïve has been thrown out the window, and to believe that these were the actual double standards abound in controlling drivers of the violent protests and the extremist violence. source of their venom. Here we encounter many issues, and both There is more to be said here. The courage and fidelity to the truth are claim that Facebook does not restrict required in order to fully grasp the content depending who makes the challenge Ethiopia has faced over the request is downright farcical. Mike last months. It is very easy to be Isaac of the New York Times (Nov.23, misunderstood when one focuses on 2016) says " The social network has the downside of social media, all the quietly developed software to suppress more so in a publication which in posts from appearing in people's news general may be looked at as pro- feeds in specific geographic areas, government―a government which according to three current and former many feel may be hostile to the media Facebook employees, who asked for in general and social media in anonymity because the tool is particular. Of course the problem is not confidential." He goes on to say, with social media per se but rather with "Facebook has restricted content in those who exploit it from near and afar other countries such as Pakistan, with impunity. This has become a world Russia and Turkey, in keeping with the phenomenon and others elsewhere are typical practice of American internet trying to address it. In the Ethiopian companies that generally comply with context, there is little doubt that government requests to block certain Facebook and Twitter have not only content after it is posted." Isaac been used in an unhelpful manner, but continues to say, "Facebook blocked they have been abused by being roughly 55,000 pieces of content in transformed into platforms for the about 20 countries between July 2015 weaponization of information. This has and December 2015,for example." The been particularly true with respect to software that has been developed takes the way social media has been used by the restriction even further because a violent segment of the Ethiopian now it is done even before posting. 2 NOVEMBER 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3 That Ethiopia is not one of those 20 proper question should have been: countries, can be taken for granted, Why was the government so slow to do though it has perhaps been the one so? whose peace and stability has been What was even more depressing was affected the most. The uproar the fact that one could not count on surrounding the action taken by the news outlets to put things in Ethiopian Government thus appears the perspective. The VOA Amharic Service, result, among others, of naivety or for instance, unashamedly groveled to sheer hypocrisy. the most violent members of the Here again, part of the problem may be diaspora, both in the way they reported related to the fact that Ethiopia’s state- the news about Ethiopia and in the owned mass media has been so poorly selection of interviewees. The more the executed that the domestic audience violence was ratcheted up and the may have been predisposed not only to government appeared in difficulty, the listen but, even more dangerously, to greater was the effort to provoke believe outlandish claims from further violence. Increasingly it elsewhere, which are calculated to appeared that the goal was an incite violence and sow seeds of unconstitutional change of government. distrust among Ethiopians. But the One of those who led the nihilistic shortcomings that the government has vandalism decided to change its hash- shown in this area are no justification tag from “protest” to “revolution.” This for the criminal irresponsibility of some indicated that they were becoming of the violent diaspora. The violence confident that the days of the EPRDF they incited eventually led to the were numbered. Immediately, burning of factories in what appears to competition began to take place among be a calculated effort to destroy signs the various opposition groups for of development in the country. The recognition as the leaders of what was violent opposition has always denied now seen as a revolution, which was that there has been any progress in about to succeed. One of them stated Ethiopia in the last two decades. Now it out loud from Asmara that his group seems they wanted to validate the false was responsible for the burning of the claims they were making by destroying eleven factories. Another issued a signs that contradicted their narrative. series of declarations from their own One wonders why some governments Asmara base, calling on various sectors and organizations were puzzled, or of society to join the fray.

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