CDRC Digest Provides an African Perspective on Developments in the Horn of § the Need to Strengthen Africa and Beyond

CDRC DIGENOVEMBERST 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3 A monthly publication of the Centre for Dialogue, Research and Cooperation (CDRC)

NOVEMBER 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3

TOPICS CDRC is an international non-profit and an § The Foreign Policy independent Ethiopia-based Centre of Implications of Ethiopia’s Excellence engaged in research and Recent Internal analyses. CDRC was accorded the status and Challenges - 1 privileges of an international organization under its host country agreement with the § Ethiopia’s State of Government of the Federal Democratic Emergency - 8 Republic of Ethiopia, signed on January 16, 2012.

§ A Practitioner’s Guide to CDRC looks at key challenges and opportunities in the Horn of Africa, the Election of Members and sets out to influence policy ideas and decisions — a goal that is key of the Commission of the to its very fabric. A strategic guide for policy impact is the first practical African Union – 9 tool that is specifically tailored to CDRC. From this standpoint, CDRC Digest provides an African perspective on developments in the Horn of § The Need to Strengthen Africa and beyond. CDRC Digest is, therefore, designed to provide the AU Continental decision makers with strategic support tools for policy-oriented goals and Leadership - 16 shaping public opinion.

§ The Growing Challenge for the Work of the

Three Africa Members (A-3) in the UNSC - 19

§ The 2016 US Election: Executive Director: Abdeta Dribssa Beyene What Does It Mean for Deputy Executive Director: Amb. Kasahun Dender Africa? - 21 Senior Adviser: Amb. Teferra Shiawl Kidanekal Senior Researcher: Dr. Belete Belachew Yihun

Centre for Dialogue, Research and Cooperation Ethio-China Friendship Avenue Medina Tower 5th floor Tel: +251 11 470 370/73 Fax: +251 11 470 0359 Email: [email protected] http://www.cdrcethiopia.org

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The Foreign Policy Implications of was becoming more and more obvious Ethiopia’s Recent Internal as it was also becoming worrying, as Challenges Alexander Rondos, the EU Special Representative for the Horn of Africa, No one would contest what has stated so persuasively in his “The Horn become so manifest—unless one is of Africa” article this year. totally unaware of the politics of our region or is inclined, for whatever It was at a time when the situation in reason, to deny what is self-evident— the Horn of Africa was becoming murky that Ethiopia has over the last two and demanding greater scrutiny, the decades been a reliable bulwark for internal situation in Ethiopia began to peace and stability in the Horn of be uncertain. It appeared that the Africa. This role that Ethiopia has been protests affecting some parts of the playing in the region has been growing country might continue to grow, year-by-year, such that since 2015 or endangering Ethiopia’s stability. Some thereabouts it has become obvious that thought that the country in which so peace and stability in the region are much confidence had been placed was inconceivable without Ethiopia. coming apart. With some justification, far from continuing to be a bulwark of However, the recent protests and the stability in the Horn of Africa, some resultant destruction of property and thought that Ethiopia might end up loss of life have induced anxiety about triggering destabilization of the Ethiopia’s capacity to address internal precarious balance in the region. challenges. This has raised questions as to whether Ethiopia could fulfill its The need to put things in perspective continental and global obligations. It must be stated from the outset, as Even earlier, uncertainties were has also been recognized by the beginning to be expressed with respect leaders of the EPRDF, that the to the future trajectory of Ethiopia’s difficulties faced by the country have role in the region following the been essentially domestic, concerning geopolitical uncertainties surrounding issues related to governance. That the crisis in Yemen. Yemen made the sustainable peace and security in the Horn of Africa and its politics more country can be secured only through complicated than ever, and it was not sorting out the issue of governance is all that unrealistic to assume that indisputable. It is self-evident that the developments in Yemen might upend enormous promise many have seen in the leverage that Ethiopia has had in Ethiopia’s economic development over the region. That the Arabian Peninsula the last decade and a half can be was intruding in the politics of the Horn realized only when Ethiopia gets

NOVEMBER 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3 governance right and the benefits of diaspora, some of whom have gone development are equitably shared. beyond the pale in their proclivity for violence. The fact that such people are Two issues must immediately be tolerated in the countries where they addressed here. First, although as are domiciled reminds us that respect already indicated, Ethiopia’s recent for basic principles of international travail had its bases in domestic relations governing inter-state relations grievances; it would be downright naïve has been thrown out the window, and to believe that these were the actual double standards abound in controlling drivers of the violent protests and the extremist violence. source of their venom. Here we encounter many issues, and both There is more to be said here. The courage and fidelity to the truth are claim that Facebook does not restrict required in order to fully grasp the content depending who makes the challenge Ethiopia has faced over the request is downright farcical. Mike last months. It is very easy to be Isaac of the New York Times (Nov.23, misunderstood when one focuses on 2016) says " The social network has the downside of social media, all the quietly developed software to suppress more so in a publication which in posts from appearing in people's news general may be looked at as pro- feeds in specific geographic areas, government―a government which according to three current and former many feel may be hostile to the media Facebook employees, who asked for in general and social media in anonymity because the tool is particular. Of course the problem is not confidential." He goes on to say, with social media per se but rather with "Facebook has restricted content in those who exploit it from near and afar other countries such as Pakistan, with impunity. This has become a world Russia and Turkey, in keeping with the phenomenon and others elsewhere are typical practice of American internet trying to address it. In the Ethiopian companies that generally comply with context, there is little doubt that government requests to block certain Facebook and Twitter have not only content after it is posted." Isaac been used in an unhelpful manner, but continues to say, "Facebook blocked they have been abused by being roughly 55,000 pieces of content in transformed into platforms for the about 20 countries between July 2015 weaponization of information. This has and December 2015,for example." The been particularly true with respect to software that has been developed takes the way social media has been used by the restriction even further because a violent segment of the Ethiopian now it is done even before posting.

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That Ethiopia is not one of those 20 proper question should have been: countries, can be taken for granted, Why was the government so slow to do though it has perhaps been the one so? whose peace and stability has been What was even more depressing was affected the most. The uproar the fact that one could not count on surrounding the action taken by the news outlets to put things in Ethiopian Government thus appears the perspective. The VOA Amharic Service, result, among others, of naivety or for instance, unashamedly groveled to sheer hypocrisy. the most violent members of the Here again, part of the problem may be diaspora, both in the way they reported related to the fact that Ethiopia’s state- the news about Ethiopia and in the owned mass media has been so poorly selection of interviewees. The more the executed that the domestic audience violence was ratcheted up and the may have been predisposed not only to government appeared in difficulty, the listen but, even more dangerously, to greater was the effort to provoke believe outlandish claims from further violence. Increasingly it elsewhere, which are calculated to appeared that the goal was an incite violence and sow seeds of unconstitutional change of government. distrust among Ethiopians. But the One of those who led the nihilistic shortcomings that the government has vandalism decided to change its hash- shown in this area are no justification tag from “protest” to “revolution.” This for the criminal irresponsibility of some indicated that they were becoming of the violent diaspora. The violence confident that the days of the EPRDF they incited eventually led to the were numbered. Immediately, burning of factories in what appears to competition began to take place among be a calculated effort to destroy signs the various opposition groups for of development in the country. The recognition as the leaders of what was violent opposition has always denied now seen as a revolution, which was that there has been any progress in about to succeed. One of them stated Ethiopia in the last two decades. Now it out loud from Asmara that his group seems they wanted to validate the false was responsible for the burning of the claims they were making by destroying eleven factories. Another issued a signs that contradicted their narrative. series of declarations from their own One wonders why some governments Asmara base, calling on various sectors and organizations were puzzled, or of society to join the fray. Among those even showed concern, when Ethiopia groups who saw nothing beyond declared the State of Emergency. The removing the current government, the

NOVEMBER 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3 jockeying for power began in earnest. now, it is enough to state, borrowing They had no clue about what to do Churchill’s phrasing that the US policy next or how to hold the country towards Ethiopia has been a riddle, together. For the people of Ethiopia the wrapped in a mystery, inside an tragedy lies in the fact that these enigma. people have their families outside the The second issue that needs to be country and therefore have little addressed is how on earth the situation incentive to worry about the in Ethiopia seemed to unravel in the consequences of a failed state. They way it did and what that signified. For had no compunction about treating many, but most significantly for the their country of birth as the subject and violent diaspora and their foreign site of an experiment in revolution supporters, it must have suggested a guided by social media. weakening of the government and its But the violent Ethiopian diaspora was inability to contain the situation. What not unaided. Some of the country’s was most important here is how foreign adversaries also believed that different parties responded to what was EPRDF’s days were numbered. They seen as an insurmountable challenge were both generous with their support for Ethiopia, which depended on their for the violent opposition and goodwill or lack thereof. Friends were unabashed in announcing what they worried, and those who cared for the had done. Eritrea had no reason to stability and security of the region were restrain itself because it was evident much perturbed. They asked: what that those it was supporting to would happen to the situation in destabilize Ethiopia were coming and Somalia? They were even more going freely between Washington and disturbed when they visualized the Asmara. The New York Times magazine Horn of Africa with Ethiopia in a state lionized one as a warrior professor. of collapse. Assuming that Ethiopia was The magazine appeared ignorant of the in mortal danger—which luckily was not fact that the same professor played a the case—the concern of those key role in scuttling the democratic positively disposed toward the country process in Ethiopia in 2005. It is and the region was indeed legitimate. interesting that this professor told the The behavior of certain countries not interviewer that he was never told by positively disposed towards Ethiopia, the US to “back off.” Obviously, there is who saw benefits arising from the an anomaly in American policy towards country’s misfortune is more interesting Ethiopia, which this publication will and offers lessons for the future. They have to take up in the near future. For

NOVEMBER 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3 acted like vultures over what they absence from the game would allow thought was the carcass of a fast those who feel they benefit little from disintegrating Horn of Africa. As should regional stability to succeed in their be clear from the history of Ethiopia’s mischief-making. This is something that involvement in peacemaking in our part we have witnessed recently. While the of the world, whether in Somalia or Asmara leadership was in a celebratory South Sudan, Addis Ababa’s approach mood, predicting the collapse of the has always been oriented towards EPRDF edifice and declaring they were impartiality. vindicated on their prediction that the government would disappear like a This has indeed had consequences, soap bubble, others who were in because it is natural for parties in cahoots with them were focused on the conflict to prefer those who promise further destabilization of the region. and deliver support, regardless of the South Sudan has been one of the prime consequences. Impartiality is not, targets, and efforts are also being however, simply a moral imperative for made in other parts of the region. Ethiopia; rather it is an approach which also serves the national interest. The lesson is for Ethiopia and the Ethiopia benefits from peace and region as well as for the international stability in the Horn of Africa. community as a whole. What the recent Accordingly, the government attaches setback Ethiopia faced has great importance to the peaceful demonstrated is that the country can resolution of disputes in the region, and never lower its guard and needs always for this Ethiopia’s impartiality was to be on its toes. Failure to address deemed necessary. For some, it timely internal problems related to appears the opposite is true―the lack governance or any other matters that of security and turmoil in the Horn of cause grievances can end up leading to Africa is a bonanza, largely because it dangers of existential proportion. creates inconvenience for Ethiopia, or Ethiopia cannot afford to leave itself even major challenges for Addis Ababa. vulnerable. No internal problem can be That was what became all too apparent so unamenable to resolution that it is when Ethiopia became preoccupied allowed to fester at the risk of allowing with its domestic difficulties. The those who are ready to take advantage lessons to be drawn are clear―any of the country’s internal weaknesses. setback suffered by Ethiopia and its The countries of the region should also absence as an active participant in the draw lessons from Ethiopia’s latest security related business of the region, experience. When Ethiopia faces is bound to be destabilizing. Ethiopia’s

NOVEMBER 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3 difficulties and appears to falter, it Is Ethiopia that brittle? should be taken for granted that there Few have been entirely clear about the are some who will be gloating over the nature of the challenge Ethiopia faced country’s misfortune and, going beyond in recent months, eventually leading to that, would risk further destabilization the declaration of a State of of the region in their effort to Emergency. Some thought that the complicate matters for Ethiopia. Ethiopian state had been weakened Feigned friendship is one device in the and that it had exhausted its capacity diplomatic arsenal―an approach, which to maintain law and order. This view is often effective when presented in was widely shared by the violent contradistinction to the impartiality that diaspora in the US and in a number of Ethiopia has always chosen as the best European countries. Eritrean officials approach when assisting in conflict were also convinced that the collapse resolution, to ensure a peaceful of the EPRDF regime was imminent. outcome without compromising the They made it clear that in their view sovereign rights of states. the dispute between the two countries There are similar lessons that the would have to wait for the next international community can learn from Ethiopian government before an the latest Ethiopian experience. The attempt would be made to resolve it. Horn of Africa is a region whose This is not a made-up story, for all delicate balance should be maintained those who have been Eritrea’s with care. It is susceptible to interlocutors on regional matters in destabilization, in part because there recent times must have heard this ad are parties that believe they benefit nauseam. Others, who are more from the misfortune that some might circumspect but equally eager to see suffer as a consequence. That might Ethiopia unravel, shared Eritrea’s sound a bit bizarre, but it is true. And sentiments and acted accordingly. this is why it is so important that the Before the declaration of the State of international community enhances its Emergency it was very difficult to argue cooperation with IGAD and the that all these prognostications were countries of the region. In fact, this is unfounded. That was, in fact, what the all the more necessary now because of empirical reality appeared to suggest. the situation in Yemen and its broader Protests were engulfing the country ramifications. The security of the Horn and resorting to violence had become of Africa has become even more the order of the day. Government critical. officials in some parts of the country

NOVEMBER 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3 were being attacked, their houses more robust. Ethiopia’s security torched and their family members institutions are reliable and entirely intimidated. Finally, violent protesters capable of securing the peace and began to destroy factories. But even security of the country. earlier many businesses had been But to assure the sustainable peace, ransacked; among others, foreign- security and development of the owned flower farms were attacked. country, it is critical that the leadership Even friends were worried about where addresses the legitimate grievances of Ethiopia was headed. the people regarding issues of No doubt it has now become obvious governance. This is what the ruling that at no time was the Ethiopian party has promised, and that is what is government devoid of the means to eagerly awaited. One hopes that the stop the violence. Nor were the appointment of ministers for the new protesters supported by the vast cabinet is a harbinger of good things to majority of the people in any part of come. Amen!! the country. In hindsight, it appears Ethiopia’s State of Emergency that the government was rather slow to realize how serious the threat of the In the aftermath of recent violent violent protesters had become. One protests, the introduction of the State must assume that there was a lack of of Emergency was absolutely essential, effective coordination between the and the results following the decision Federal Government and the Regional speak volumes. The incident during the Administrations with a view to Irrecha celebration of October 2nd and containing the protests in good time. the subsequent violence and vandalism But that was misunderstood, both by witnessed in parts of the country the violent diaspora who called for demanded the creation of a legal revolution and by some of Ethiopia’s framework that would allow the foreign adversaries. government to restore peace and stability nation-wide. The Ethiopian opposition continues to underestimate EPRDF’s capacity to Some argue that the State of overcome political challenges. But Emergency should have been instituted Ethiopia’s adversaries overlook one of in the immediate aftermath of the Ethiopia’s critical qualities. This is not a Irrecha incident or even much earlier. country that can fall apart easily. The They stress that such preemptive nation has endured for a long time, and measures could have averted the in recent years it has become even catastrophic loss of lives and property.

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Others question the very imposition of guided by forces that have no regard the state of emergency, largely for the interests of the Ethiopian people because they are convinced that on whose behalf they claim to have resorting to such a course of action embarked on the violent protests. It may stifle democratic possibilities. was not lost on the government that the extensive limitations placed on However, allowing the blatant and consitutional rights through declaration aggressive defiance of law and order to of a State of Emergency require careful continue unhindered would have monitoring and great sensitivity. The amounted to a total dereliction of duty potential danger cannot be swept on the part of the government. The under the carpet, and concerns exact and full extent of the losses expressed in this regard cannot be incurred by the government and the dismissed out of hand. private sector will be provided by the Development Bank of Ethiopia, which It is impossible for any government to has been assigned the responsibility of allow the kind of destruction and assessing the damage. So far what is horrendous criminality that the country clear is that the vandalism and witnessed in the days prior to the destruction committed by the declaration of the State of Emergency. protesters prior to the instatement of That is why it is perplexing that some the State of Emergency has resulted in: believe that what the government did thousands of jobs lost in the Oromia was unseemly under the circumstances. region; a trail of traumatized employees It is nonetheless obvious that this is an of the vandalized warehouses, farms unextraordinary step taken by the and factories; and foreign investors government to address a potential who are left to contemplate whether to danger which needed to be contained. rebuild and continue doing business in This was what the interests of the Ethiopia, or simply walk away. country and its people demanded.

It is fair to assume that the As indicated in the preceding article in government chose to resort to the this issue of the Digest, it is impossible implementation of a State of to believe that the destruction wrought Emergency with reservations and by those responsible was to improve possibly as a last resort, to maintain the governance of the country. This is peace and security, nor would it have something that must be investigated, opted for that course of action if there and the forces behind the madness were other means of controlling the should be exposed. The possibility that lawlessness which appeared to be the overall aim might have been to

NOVEMBER 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3 inflict damage that would halt the Maintaining the peace and stability that progress being made in Ethiopia should has now been regained requires a not be ignored. It is also necessary to strong commitment to the rule of law admit that those who might be behind and cooperation from the citizenry. the senseless destruction have indeed achieved part of their objective in The EPRDF, as the governing party, has tarnishing the image of the country. No the responsibility of ascertaining the doubt this will have damaging prevalence of democratic rule in the implications for Ethiopia’s attempt to country. This means applying proper make itself attractive for Foreign Direct checks and balances to the Investment. implementation of the State of Emergency, and avoiding any violation The implementation of the State of of human rights, in order to make rapid Emergency is not without its progress in achieving the designed complications. First, there is a need for objectives. The current state of affairs all parties involved in its should facilitate a more enhanced effort implementation to understand the towards ensuring greater respect for reason for its instatement—to maintain the constitution, the rule of law, and peace and security and to ensure the peace and security throughout the prevalence of the rule of law. Secondly, country. the implementation of the State of Emergency should be monitored to ensure that it is not being used as an A Practitioner’s Guide to the excuse to violate the human rights of Election of Members of the citizens, as provided in the constitution Commission of the African Union through attrition. Thirdly, the Command Post, the authority responsible for the Context implementation of the State of Emergency, should take extra The term of office of the current African precautions when dealing with the Union Commission (AUC) leadership regional-states’ powers, because some ended in July 2016. However, the of its actions could be seen as Summit was unable to elect one of the sidelining their authority and their three candidates to the position of autonomy, compromising the delicate Chairperson and decided to postpone balance of the power arrangement put the next vote until January 2017. In July the candidates for the position of in place by the constitution. Chairperson were Ms. Pelonomi Venson Moitoi, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the

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Republic of Botswana; Mr. Agapito Mba SADC’s slow decision to inform the Mokuy, Foreign Minister of the Republic other Member States that Chairperson of Equatorial Guinea; and Ms. Specioza Zuma would not seek re-election. Many Wandira-Kazibwe, former Vice- argue that this sluggishness prevented President of the Republic of Uganda. the presentation of strong candidates After several rounds of voting the for the position of Chairperson. candidates failed to attain the legally Rules of the Game required two-thirds majority for election. Election to the membership of the AU Commission will be conducted in In Kigali it was clear that ECOWAS as a accordance with the Rules of Procedure region, supported by others, did not of the Assembly of the Union, the want the elections. Their argument was Statutes of the Commission of the AU, that the candidates do not have the as well as the Modalities for Election of necessary caliber to steer the the Members of the Commission. Commission at this challenging time. According to the Statutes of the They also stress that the composition of Commission, each region is required to the candidates is not in line with the nominate two (2) candidates, including Statutes of the Commission, which a woman for each portfolio; thus, a stipulate the need for gender and total of sixteen (16) candidates from regional balance. While meeting each region for the eight (8) portfolios. Nigeria’s President Buhari in May 2016, Therefore, for the five (5) regions a Senegal’s President Macky Sall total of eighty (80) candidates [forty reportedly emphasized “the need for (40) men and forty (40) women] were the emergence of a good candidate for required to be submitted. However, no the chairmanship of the soon-to-be region complied with the modalities for vacant AU Commission in view of the presentation of candidates, particularly decision of Mrs. Zuma not to run for a the number and gender configuration second term.” Similar sentiments were of candidates. expressed during the 4 June 2016 ECOWAS Summit. Article 6 of the Statutes of the Commission stress that the region from Another important dynamic surrounding which the Chairperson and Deputy this election was the SADC countries’ Chairperson are appointed is entitled to desire to keep the position for southern one commissioner each, while all other Africa. Given the region’s big push in regions are entitled to two 2012 to block Mr. Jean Ping’s second commissioners. According to the term, many expressed frustration about regulations, at least one commissioner

NOVEMBER 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3 from each region should be a woman. be restricted to the two (2) candidates who The Chairperson of the Commission is obtain the highest number of votes in the the Chief Executive Officer, the legal third ballot. representative of the Union, and the If after three (3) further ballots neither of Accounting Officer of the Commission. the two (2) candidates obtains the majority The Chairperson also plays an required, the candidates with fewer votes important role regarding regional shall withdraw. integration and Africa’s partnership with Where there are only two (2) candidates the rest of the world, as well as conflict initially and neither candidate obtains the prevention, management, resolution majority required after the third ballot, the and mediation. The status of the AUC candidate with fewer votes shall withdraw Chairperson and the Commission has and the remaining candidate shall proceed also been significantly enhanced as the to the next round. AU takes on greater responsibilities and has a higher profile than in its early years. In view of the difficulties the If the remaining candidate fails to obtain Assembly faced during the 2012 the two-thirds majority required in that election, the decision was made to round, the Chairperson shall suspend the review the rules relating to the election. elections. However, no review has been conducted thus far. Where there is only one (1) candidate The most relevant legal clause with initially and he or she fails to obtain the regard to the election of the two-thirds majority required after the third Chairperson, Rule 42 of the Rules of ballot the Chairperson shall suspend the Procedure of the Assembly, stipulates election. that: “The voting shall commence with the election of the Chairperson and the Deputy Chairperson; thereafter, the Assembly shall The Deputy Chairperson of the Commission appoint Commissioners elected by the shall take over the Chairmanship of the Executive Council.” Commission on an interim basis until new In any election of the Chairperson of the elections are held. If the impasse is in Commission or his/her Deputy, the respect of the Deputy Chairperson, the balloting shall continue until one (1) of the most senior Commissioner by the tenure of candidates obtain the two-thirds majority his service, or by age where length of required. Provided that, if the third ballot tenure is the same, shall be designated to remains inconclusive, the next ballot shall

NOVEMBER 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3 act as the Deputy Chairperson until new elections. The Southern region elections are held. presented twelve candidates, while the Central region presented eleven, the The Process Western region presented ten, the In accordance with Article 16 (1) of the Northern region nine, and the Eastern Statutes of the Commission, the list of presented eight. Thirty-one member candidates must be circulated at least states presented candidates for the ten three months before the elections. positions. While Malawi presented four After the review process, fifty candidates, Burundi and Cameroon candidatures (thirty male and twenty presented three candidates each. female) for the positions of Twelve countries (Angola, Algeria, Chairperson, Deputy Chairperson and Chad, Djibouti, DRC, Egypt, Kenya, various portfolios of the Commission Mauritania, Sudan, Tunisia, Zambia and are presented for selection. For the Zimbabwe) presented two candidates posts of Chairperson, five; for Deputy each, while sixteen countries (Senegal, Chairperson, four; for the eight Equatorial Guinea, Botswana, Libya, Commissioner posts, 41 candidates Ghana, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Guinea, were submitted respectively. The Cote d’Ivoire, Mali, Seychelles, Togo, number of candidates during the Lesotho, Sierra Leone, Uganda and previous elections was 75 (2003), 45 Niger) presented one candidate each. (2008), 25 (2012) and 39 (July 2016). The Candidates The incumbents in the positions of Chairperson Chairperson, Deputy Chairperson, and Commissioners for Political Affairs, The list for Chairperson includes two of Infrastructure and Energy, Rural the candidates who failed to attain the Economy and Agriculture, Human required two-thirds majority in July— Resources, and Science and Ms. Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi of Technology will not run; while the Botswana, and Mr. Agapito Mba Mokuy commissioners of Peace and Security, of Equatorial Guinea. The new Social Affairs, Trade and Industry, and candidates are Mr. Moussa Faki Economic Affairs are running for re- Mahamat, Foreign Minister of Chad; Ms. election. All candidates for the Deputy Amina Mohammed, Foreign Minister of Chairpersonship and Economic Affairs Kenya; and Mr. Abdoulaye Bathily of portfolio are male. Senegal, currently Special Representative of the UN Secretary- The regional distribution of candidates General for Central Africa and Head of is relatively fair compared to previous the United Nations Office to the Region.

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Foreign Minister Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi Foreign Minister Agapito Mba Mokuy of of Botswana Equatorial Guinea

One important point in relation to the AUC election is adherence to the Many analysts do not expect any shift principle of rotation. In this regard, six with regard to the two candidates, Ms. of the twelve Secretaries-General/ Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi of Botswana Chairpersons of the OAU/AU have been and Mr. Agapito Mba Mokuy of from Western Africa; three have been Equatorial Guinea, who failed to master from Central Africa; two from Eastern the two-thirds majority. However, some Africa; one, the incumbent, from in the Southern Africa region argue that Southern Africa; and none from North their region should be allowed to hold Africa. the position of Chairperson for a The current candidates for the position second term. But it would be difficult to of Chairperson are from the Central make a solid case for this, because (two), Eastern, Western and Southern Southern Africa did not respect this regions. If the principle of rotation is to principle during the venomous 2012 be strictly observed, it would election in which the current disadvantage Mr. Bathily's prospects Chairperson, Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini- and favor East Africa, which last held Zuma, defeated Mr. Ping after six the position in 1989-2001 when Mr. months of deadlock. Similarly, positions Salim Ahmed Salim of Tanzania was taken by Botswana on issues such as Secretary-General of the OAU. the International Criminal Court, as well as Botswana’s President’s failure to attend the AU Summit, are expected to affect the candidature of Ms. Pelonomi

Venson-Moitoi. In a similar vein, accusations of corruption and

NOVEMBER 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3 repression leveled at Equatorial Guinea Kenyan Foreign Minister Amina Mohamed by the international media could negatively affect the candidature of Mr. Agapito Mba Mokuy.

Mr. Abdoulaye Bathily of Senegal

The other candidate, Ms. Amina Mohammed, has already garnered endorsements from two key Regional Economic Communities, namely the

East African Community (EAC) and the Mr. Bathily of Senegal has held various Common Market for Eastern and ministerial positions in the Senegalese Southern Africa (COMESA), and IGAD is Government, notably as Senior Minister expected to follow suit. in charge of African Affairs (2012- Ms. Mohammed is currently serving as 2013), Minister for Energy and Kenya's Foreign Minister, and Hydraulics (2000-2001) and Minister for previously served as Kenya’s the Environment and the Protection of Ambassador to Switzerland and Nature (1993-1998). He also served as Representative to the UN in Geneva, Deputy Speaker of the national and as Deputy Executive Director of parliament from 2001 to 2006. UNEP. This week Deputy President Mr. Bathily has lectured at several William Ruto visited Chad, Ghana, Ivory universities around the world. And yet Coast, Mali, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra despite his well-known qualifications Leone to garner support for the and solid credentials, support for Mr. candidature of Foreign Minister Amina Bathily may be negatively impacted by Mohammed. the fact that Senegal is perceived as a country that does not always necessarily represent African positions.

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Chadian Foreign Minister Moussa Faki Minister of Djibouti; Mr. Claude Joachim Mahamat Tiker Tiker of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a former Deputy Secretary-General of ECCAS; Mr. Thomas Kwesi Quartey of Ghana, currently Secretary to the President and a former Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs and Regional Integration, as well as Ambassador to Ethiopia and the Permanent Representative to the AU and UNECA; and Mr. Abdulhakim Rajab Elwaer of Libya, currently Director of Human Resources, Science and Technology at the AUC. The candidates for Deputy Chairperson are all male, which might compel member states to take the gender parity into account when electing the Chairperson. Ghana's Mr. Quartey is considered the strongest The other strong candidate for the candidate for the position, which could post, Mr. Moussa Faki Mahamat, could significantly affect Mr. Bathily’s not get endorsement from his Sub- Regional Organization, the Economic candidature for the position of Chairperson, given that both are from Community of Central African States the Western Africa region. (ECCAS), due to the candidature of the Foreign Minister of Equatorial Guinea, Peace and Security Commissioner who is from the same region. In light of its strategic importance, While Chad's current Chairpersonship of work load and resource allocation, this the African Union may be an advantage is considered to be the most important for Mr. Faki Mahamat, there is a strong Commissioner portfolio. The candidates possibility of a divided vote from are: Mr. Smail Chergui of Algeria, the Central Africa in the first three rounds. current Commissioner; Ms. Ephiphanie Kabushemeye of Burundi, former Deputy Chairperson Ambassador to the AU and currently The candidates for the position of AMISOM's civilian Chief of Staff; Mr. Deputy Chairperson are Mr. Yacin Elmi Geoffrey L. Mvla and Ms. Rose Tujilane Bouh, Interior and Decentralization Chizumila, both of Malawi; Ms. Fatima

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Kyari Mohammed of Nigeria, Special elections will take these challenges into Adviser to the ECOWAS Commission; account. and Ms. Diye Ba of Mauritania, former

Minister. Many agree that Mr. Chergui is the strongest candidate. The Need to Strengthen the AU Continental Leadership Final Note The African Union Summit held in Kigali The emerging ‘Africa rising’ narrative is in July 2016 took major decisions with being challenged as we witness a significant bearing on the future of the decline in the growth of some African Union. The Summit tasked the countries’ economies and in oil prices. Rwandan President Paul Kagame with Moreover, Africa’s visibility and leading a new effort to reform the leadership both in the continent and Union, in particular the AU Commission, beyond is diminishing. It is in this to make it a more efficient, effective context that the next leadership of the and self-reliant institution. So far, Commission has a monumental President Kagame has selected a team responsibility, to fill the current of five men and four women with leadership gap and strive to implement diverse expertise in both private and the first ten-year plan of Agenda 2063. public sectors. The nine members are Maintaining the momentum of growth Dr. Donald Kaberuka of Rwanda, the at the continental level and ensuring former President of the African broad-based and pro-poor Development Bank (AfDB); Dr. Carlos development; silencing the guns by Lopes of Guinea-Bissau, former 2020 and sustaining peace; Executive Secretary of the United accelerating continental integration Nations Economic Commission for through infrastructure and other Africa; Strive Masiyiwa of Zimbabwe, projects; uniting the continent to speak the founder of Econet Wireless; Cristina in one voice at the global level; building Duarte, the former Minister of Finance the Commission and other institutions of Cape Verde; Dr. Acha Leke of of the Union to ready them for the 21st Cameroon, a Senior Partner with global century; ensuring predictable and consultancy firm McKinsey & Co.; Tito sustainable funding for the Union as Mboweni, former Governor of the South well as making it the peoples’ Union— African Reserve Bank; Amina J. all this requires dedicated, innovative Mohammed, Nigeria’s Minister of and strong leadership with a pan- Environment; Mariam Mahamat Nour, African vision. It is our hope that the the Minister of Economy, Planning, and International Cooperation of Chad; and

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Vera Songwe of Cameroon, Regional 0.2 percent tax on eligible imports. The Director for West and Central Africa funds must be directly deposited into with the International Finance the AU budget, which will use this Corporation. This distinguished team money to finance operational costs as has already started consultations with well as development programs and member states on the envisaged peace support operations. reforms. All these important, but challenging The other important decision at the tasks require committed leaders. Many Summit concerns sustainable, agree that in the African Union context, predictable and reliable financing for leadership at the continental level the programs and projects of the comes from two sources—member Union. The fact that “partners” cover states and/or the AU Commission. In more than 95% of the AU’s program this regard, it is not an exaggeration to and peacekeeping budget places the say that in the years between 2000 and Union at the mercy of its donors. This 2010 Africa had an incredible unstable financial situation has generation of Heads of State and contributed to the unpredictability and Government, as well as vibrant Foreign unsustainability of AU programs. Ministers. These leaders included Indeed, a significant capacity and Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria, Meles accountability deficit has also Zenawi of Ethiopia, Thabo Mbeki of contributed to this dismal financial South Africa, Abdelaziz Bouteflika of situation. Since 2003, several efforts Algeria, John Kufuor of Ghana, Joaquim have been made to improve the Chissano of Mozambique, Sam Nujoma financial standing of the Union and of Namibia, Abdoulaye Wade of various proposals have been presented, Senegal, and Benjamin Mkapa of but to no avail. This is why Dr. Donald Tanzania. And of course, despite his Kaberuka was tasked with looking into unorthodox and at times dangerous the financing of the AU, and particularly methods, one cannot disregard the role the establishment of a Peace Fund for played by Col. Gadaffi of Libya. AU peacekeeping operations. These leaders were able to craft the In Kigali, the Summit endorsed pan-African Agenda in a very decisive Kaberuka’s proposal to devise a new manner. The transformation of the OAU funding model for the AUC, which will to the AU, the creation and articulation require member states to contribute of the NEPAD program, the close to $1.2 billion to the Union’s establishment of the African Peer budget every year through levying a Review Mechanism, as well as the

NOVEMBER 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3 formation and operationalization of the Moses Wetangula of Kenya, Cheikh African Peace and Security Tidiane Gadio of Senegal, Mompati Architecture—all this was the work of Merafhe of Botswana, Nana Akufo-Addo these great minds. Without any doubt, of Ghana, Abdel Rahman Shalgham of all of these were a result of serious Libya, Oluyemi Adeniji and Ojo intellectual engagement and grand Maduekwe of Nigeria, Sam Kutesa of debates amongst these leaders. Despite Uganda, Jakaya Kikwete of Tanzania, significant differences on how the and Abdelkader Messahel of Algeria. continental integration agenda should Now the situation is totally different. be read, the work of this generation of The major countries that are supposed leaders gave substantive meaning to to lead the pan-Africa agenda are the concept of ‘African solutions to bogged down with their own local African problems’ and made the AU challenges. Nigeria has not yet more relevant on the global stage. In overcome the problem of terrorism or articulating the continent’s political, the impact of the drop in global oil economic and also peace and security prices, while Algeria is still working on agenda, these leaders made a serious generational leadership transition. attempt to ensure ideological clarity, a Ethiopia and South Africa are struggling sense of African pride and self-reliance, to overcome challenges within their responsibility and policy ownership. governing parties and to respond to the These leaders also enabled Africa to demands of the increasingly impatient speak in one voice at the global level— youth. Kenya and Ghana are entering on climate change, the G-20, UN an election cycle, which may compel reform, for example. The role of the their leaders to give absolute Former President Alpha Oumar Konare, precedence to local priorities. Egypt, who served as the Chairperson of the which could have assumed a major Commission for four years between continental role despite its serious 2002 and 2007, cannot be over- security and economic difficulties, has emphasized. failed to liberate itself from a Cold War- A strong group of Foreign Ministers era subversive, paranoiac and selfishly made the Executive Council of the Nile-centered African foreign policy. On African Union significant by refining the the other hand, despite significant monumental continental projects also expectations, the term of Chairperson supported these leaders. This group of Zuma at the AU Commission fell short Ministers included, among others, in strengthening the Commission as an Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma of South effective implementation arm of the Africa, Seyoum Mesfin of Ethiopia, Union.

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This situation makes the task of capable and effective leaders for the President Kagame, the torch-bearer of Africa Union Commission is so critical. his generation, even more difficult.

Africa needs strong, visionary and committed leadership at this time. The The Growing Challenge in the important institutions and concepts that Work of the Three Africa Members the earlier generation of leaders (A-3) in the UNSC developed need to be adjusted to fit It is a well-known fact that the UN current realities. For example, the Security Council spends much of its African Peace and Security Architecture time discussing issues related to peace is focused on inter- and intra-state and security and other political conflicts. Now, asymmetric attacks by developments in the African continent. transnational terrorist and criminal In this regard, the role of the three groups involved in arms, human and African members of the Security drug trafficking have become serious Council is critical in defending and threats to continental peace and promoting Africa’s interests. stability. The challenges originating in nearby regions such as the Middle East Although the three African members need to be taken into account. The are elected in their national capacity, concept of peace-building requires a they are in the Council representing solid institutional arrangement in order Africa and their respective regions as to sustain peace. All of these require well as the African Union, which conceptual clarity. endorses their candidature. Therefore they are expected to align their national On the other hand, the importance of positions with the African position, making the Union the peoples’ union by reflected in a common position at the enhancing its substantive relevance to African Union. the life of ordinary Africans will continue to be a monumental task. This The African Union Peace and Security requires linking Africa’s regions through Council, as a standing decision-making infrastructure and creating a shared organ focused on the prevention, vision of common destiny based on management and resolution of conflicts values. Overcoming these challenges, in Africa, deliberates on crisis situations including implementation of the and adopts important decisions, and proposals for reform of the AU as well the African members in the UNSC are as efforts to improve the Union’s supposed to take cues from the AUPSC situation, largely depend on the quality on the consideration of these crisis of leadership. This is why electing situations in the Council.

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There have indeed been efforts to in the Council. The major rift in the P-5, coordinate the position of the African particularly the US and Russia on issues members in the UN Security Council, such as Syria and Yemen, has also and the A-3 mechanism has already begun to impinge on the Council’s been put in place to allow the three consideration of African issues. members to meet regularly and Although the major powers may not coordinate their work in the Council. have any particular strategic interest in The Permanent AU Observer Mission some of the conflict situations in Africa, also supports and facilitates the work of it has become increasingly difficult to the A-3, and each member assumes a find common ground in dealing with coordinating role every three months these conflicts. Therefore, even if the and regularly briefs the Africa Group in A-3 are united, the P-5 may not New York on the activities of the A-3 in support their position, and some have the Council. in fact begun to say that they will not rubber-stamp the A-3 position. Moreover, efforts have been made to facilitate enhanced cooperation Secondly, some members of the A-3 between members of the AUPSC and have been pursuing their own national current and incoming African members interests contrary to the common of the UN Security Council. The Oran African position, and this continues to Annual Forum jointly organized by have adverse impacts on the Algeria and the African Union advancement of Africa’s interests in the Commission has become one important Council. Egypt continues to be wedded platform in realizing this objective and to an African foreign policy which does it has been held regularly for the past not encourage mutual trust, thus unity, four consecutive years. and, in a rather jaundiced manner, anchored on an approach which brooks The P-5 and other non-permanent no win-win possibilities on the Nile or members in the Council look to the A-3 any other issue. As a matter of fact, in to take the lead on African issues and the current configuration, the A-3 try to align their positions with them as coordination does not seem to be much as possible, but not necessarily working in substance, although the always. This is provided that the A-3 framework still exists in form. remains united and cohesive. However, this is now being undermined for two This has indeed been a matter of major reasons. serious concern at the African Union, and in the Peace and Security Council. One is the prevailing Cold War-like At its meeting held on 28 April 2016, atmosphere between the major powers

NOVEMBER 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3 the AUPSC recognized the negative Going forward, it is imperative that the implications arising from the lack of AUPSC decision is fully implemented to coordination and cohesion on the ensure the necessary coherence treatment of issues related to peace between the A-3. Needless to say, the and security in Africa. In this regard, proper sequencing of AUPSC meetings the AUPSC is exploring the possibility of with those of the UNSC is also critical, establishing an accountability to make sure that its outcomes are mechanism for the A-3 and drawing up adequately reflected in the criteria to govern the endorsement deliberations of the UNSC. This has not process of candidatures of AU member always been the case and its impact in states to become non-permanent terms of the work of the A-3 cannot members of the UNSC. simply be overlooked. Last but not least, the Permanent AU Observer It can be understood from the Mission needs to go beyond facilitating foregoing that, in spite of the progress meetings of the A-3 and transmitting made in setting up the framework for AUPSC decisions; its role and capacity cooperation and coordination among need to be further strengthened. African members of the UNSC, there is a lot of room for improvement to ensure that Africa’s interests and The 2016 US Election: What Does concerns are adequately addressed. It It Mean for Africa? is within this context that Ethiopia will be taking up its non-permanent seat at This year’s major upheavals indicate the UNSC on 1 January 2017. Given the the radical and often troubling challenges of aligning national interests transformations challenging the existing with decisions of the AUPSC, Ethiopia global order. The ever-growing must take all necessary measures to eminence of China, the re-emergence create coordinating mechanisms in that of Russia, the ceaseless crisis in the regard. The challenge, though, will Middle East, the BREXIT phenomenon remain, as Ethiopia is not a member of and the apparent muddle in the EU, the the AUPSC and may demand to be refugee crisis, etc. have already created properly briefed in order to understand a delicate admixture with a capacity to the dynamics and how decisions have alter the status quo. Anti- been reached. As a country that is establishment, anti-immigration, anti- known to take a principled position, cooperation, far-right populist groups navigating through the P-5 politics in are obviously getting free rein in the the Council will not be an easy task. Western hemisphere. As was the case in the UK, the electoral map and the

NOVEMBER 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3 results of the recent US election reflect elections in the US and eagerly awaits the growing popular disillusionment the results. with an elite-controlled establishment, In this year’s US election Secretary be it in Washington or elsewhere. Hilary Clinton was predicted to sway Political opportunists ready to capitalize the results in her favor with little effort. on the widespread frustration, But this did not materialize as the campaigning on the platform of business tycoon and media mogul Mr. nationalist nostalgia, class resentment, Donald Trump emerged the winner of racial animus and economic insecurity, the Oval Office. Reverberating reactions can easily hijack it. Now Americans and were overheard across the world, with others must contend with one-party an intensity that might give rise to domination of both the executive and challenges that existing global legislative branches of the US arrangements might not be able to government. endure. Upcoming elections in Global politics has produced a number Germany, France and the Netherlands of ‘swing centers,’ making it literally are already predicted to follow the impossible to predict one’s geo-political trajectory of those in the UK and the position and predetermine a line of US, with far-right populist parties engagement. Yet the US still remains expected to sweep political power. the major power-house, a force to Surely scholars, politicians and ordinary reckon with, the state that no one can folks have a lot of soul-searching to do afford to affront or to inadvertently to make sense of why this has dismiss. Whatever happens in US happened and might continue elections, with their unparalleled happening. The question that follows influence on developments elsewhere, then should be: Whether the world therefore, is closely watched, all order that the great powers wanting the outcome guaranteeing institutionalized following the Second their immediate interests. World War is faltering, ushering in entirely new dynamics? We can only The US electorate as well as the wait and see. outside world is already struggling to deal with the faltering global economy, Many observers agree that America’s migration, the crisis in the Middle East, association with continental Africa in and the visible ascendancy of populism. general and the Horn in particular has But, since the US President continues been rhetorical at most and restricted to command immense power in global to mere gestures at least during affairs, everyone keenly observes Obama’s administration. If one

NOVEMBER 2016 Vol. 1 No. 3 disregards the intermittent official visits area—it remains in the best interests of of President Obama to selected African the states of the Horn and Africa in states, the continent apparently general as well as the US to reassess remained inconsequential to US policy their relationships, bilateral as well as makers. Even those visits and multilateral. Major changes in the concurrent pledges to support efforts in Middle East policy might force some in energy development and ‘free-trade’ the Gulf to look for alternatives, which sectors were primarily motivated by the might have implications for the Horn of growing presence of China in Africa. Africa. Africa’s apparent economic Admittedly, the US has failed in its role success, viewed only in its potential as in Libya, traded the delicate situation in a marketplace, will not suffice as the Egypt for immediate strategic interests, sole basis of interaction. Rather, ignored the challenges the Horn faces partnerships have equally to weigh in in South Sudan and Somalia and factors such as geo-strategic remained aloof when Boko Haram and importance and Africa’s concerted the Ansar Din of the Tuareg clan effort to emerge as a cohesive political ravaged West Africa, to mention but a unit with the potential to influence few major instances of outright crisis. proceedings at the global level.

Based on the assumption that Mr. Certainly, one expects from President Trump’s initial years in the White House Trump’s administration a more will be focused on local politics, it muscular foreign policy in a context of seems likely that bigger and more closer engagement on counter- complex international issues that terrorism and regional matters. There challenge the existing world order, and may be more cooperation with America’s interactions with Africa in countries of the Horn on these issues. general and the Horn in particular, One hopes this would be the case. In might continue without a major the Horn of Africa, a region that has change. Preferential trade deals like suffered so much from big power AGOA might eventually be reviewed politics, people hope that a new, well- and relationships may be refocused on thought-out policy on Africa for the fight against terrorism. continental, regional and bilateral issues of concern can help maintain the Of course, given the fast unraveling momentum towards growth and geo-political alignments involving cooperation. This is something that one China, Turkey, Iran, and the Gulf can wish for now, but it could become States—with their extended effect on a reality based on the choices and the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea decisions those involved make.