Nuclear Power, Climate Policy and Sustainability An Assessment by the Austrian Nuclear Advisory Board Weltbevölkerung Förderung Verfügbarkeit pro Kopf NACHHALTIG FÜR NATUR UND MENSCH SUSTAINABLE FOR NATURE AND MANKIND Lebensqualität / Quality of life Wir schaffen und sichern die Voraussetzungen für eine hohe Qualität des Lebens in Österreich. We create and we safeguard the prerequisites for a high quality of life in Austria. Lebensgrundlagen / Bases of life Wir stehen für vorsorgende Verwaltung und verantwortungsvolle Nutzung der Lebensgrundlagen Boden, Wasser, Luft, Energie und biologische Vielfalt. We stand for a preventive preservation and responsible use of the bases of life soil, water, air, energyenergy, andand biodiversity.biodiversity. Lebensraum / Living environment Wir setzen uns für eine umweltgerechte Entwicklung und den Schutz der Lebensräume in Stadt und Land ein. We support an environmentally benign development and the protection of living environments in urban and rural areas. Lebensmittel / Food Wir sorgen für die nachhaltige Produktion insbesondere sicherer und hochwertiger Lebensmittel und nachwachsender Rohstoffe. We provide for the sustainable production in particular of safe and high-quality foodstuffs and of renewable resources. IMPRINT Editor: Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Environment and Water Management Stubenring 1, 1012 Vienna, Austria, www.lebensministerium.at Coordination: Helga Kromp-Kolb (Austrian Nuclear Advisory Board) and Andreas Molin (Lebensministerium) Translation: The authors with the support of Patricia Lorenz, Susanne Morawetz and Ilse Tweer Layout: vorauer, friends* werbeagentur, Wels Graphics: Crossdesign Werbeagentur GmbH Print: AV + Astoria Druckzentrum GmbH Vienna 2007 Copyright: Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Environment and Water Management Printed with vegetable-oil-based ink on chlorine-free bleached paper. Preface For many years Austria has followed a policy of exit from nuclear power. In the population and across all political parties there is wide-spread consensus that nuclear power is too risky an energy technology and that the use of nuclear energy burdens future generations irresponsibly with nuclear waste. Meantime climate change has made the need to reduce green house gas emissions apparent. The foreseeable end of cheap oil and – somewhat later – of gas also requires a rethinking of energy policies. Consequently I am frequently confronted with the question whether in the light of these developments a policy critical of nuclear energy was still legitimate, whether nuclear energy was not the lesser evil. Policy, just like science, sometimes must pause and check its premises. In this spirit I have asked the Austrian Nuclear Advisory Board, the pertinent scientific advisory body of the Austrian Government, to take up this question. Have advances in science and technology made a revision of the Austrian energy policy regarding nuclear necessary, especially in view of climate change and “Peak Oil”? Has the nuclear option become sustainable? The assessment has now been completed and the message is an inconvenient one: in spite of nominal safety improvements in nuclear power plants a long list of “near-misses” documents that severe accidents can never be excluded; nuclear installations can only marginally be protected against terrorist attacks; proliferation continues to be a serious problem and a sustainable solution of the radioactive waste problem is not in sight. But even if one were to overlook all these drawbacks a nuclear power scale-up would come too late to contribute significantly towards the solution of the challenges of climate change and “Peak Oil”. Nuclear power is not even a cheap solution: energy efficiency measures and alternative energies are superior ecologically and economically. Maybe surprising for many: should nuclear be significantly up-scaled fissionable uranium would become scarce within a few decades, just like oil. The nuclear solution then leads to a plutonium economy – and fourth generation reactor concepts point in this direction – with all the associated dangers and significantly higher proliferation risks. Thus nuclear power is not the convincing solution some claim; rather it is no solution at all. There is no reason to change the Austrian policy. Our focus on energy efficiency and alternative energies is far sighted and the right way to go. We are convinced that in following this path we also contribute to the awareness building that is necessary to achieve a sustainable and more responsible use of energy. Josef Pröll Minister for Environment Table of Contents Preface Table of Contents Dedication Synthesis: Nuclear Power, Climate Policy and Sustainability 5 Tuning in: Energy at the Turning-Point - From Oil to Sun 21 Peter Weish 1 The Revival of the Nuclear Debate: Climate Change and “Peak Oil” 27 Helga Kromp-Kolb and Franz Meister 2 Environmental Pollution Caused by the “Normal Operation“ Nuclear Fuel Cycle 43 Helmut Hirsch and Peter Weish 3 Nuclear Safety 53 Georgui Kastchiev, Roman Lahodynsky, Nikolaus Müllner, Wolfgang Kromp, Helga Kromp-Kolb 4 Radioactive Waste 93 Helmut Hirsch 5 Terrorism and War 109 Helmut Hirsch 6 Emergency Planning 127 Helmut Hirsch 7 Nuclear Proliferation Issues Associated with the Commercial Nuclear Fuel Cycle 143 Steven C. Sholly 8 Timeliness of the Nuclear Energy Option 165 Geert Weimann and Helga Kromp-Kolb 9 Nuclear Energy and the Kyoto Protocol in Perspective 187 Anthony Froggatt 10 Nuclear Energy - The Economic Perspective 201 Antony Froggatt 11 Nuclear Generated Hydrogen Economy - A Sustainable Option? 217 Steven C. Sholly 12 Sustainability and the Production of Electricity by Nuclear Power Stations - The Legal Dimension 241 Manfred Rotter Putting it Simply: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) 259 Abbreviations 267 Glossary 273 The Authors 287 Dedication The Austrian Nuclear Advisory Board dedicated this assessment to its founding member and Vice-Chairman Univ.-Prof. Manfred Heindler, an internationally renowned critical expert on nuclear fission and fusion technologies and their application. He was strongly involved in the first version of the Assessment in 2000 and in developing the concept for the present, significantly enlarged and updated version as long as his health permitted. He has not lived to see the finalisation of this work. He passed away on May 13th 2006 in Graz, Austria. The members of the Austrian Nuclear Advisory Board will miss him, his vigour and optimism, his sharp criticism and his valuable and constructive contributions. Synthesis: Nuclear Power, Climate Policy and Sustainability Synthesis: Nuclear Power, Climate Policy and Sustainability An Assessment of the Nuclear Option with regard to Climate Policy and Sustainable Development January 2007 5 Nuclear Power, Climate Policy and Sustainability Syntesis: Nuclear Power Climate Policy and Sustainability An Assessment of the Nuclear Option with regard to Climate Policy and Sustainable Development January 2007 Abstract In the past years the issue of Nuclear Energy has been raised at various occasions, in particular with regard to Climate Change and the necessity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and in view of the foreseeable end of cheap oil (“Peak Oil”) and their global implications. Following the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the EU Sustainable Development Strategy, the political and societal solutions to these problems must be environmentally sound and sustainable. Austria takes the view that electricity production from Nuclear Energy is neither sustainable nor environmentally sound and is therefore not suitable to contribute to the solution of the climate problem or the peak oil crisis: • Even when ignoring the possibility of severe accidents, Nuclear Energy is burdened with a large number of environmental problems and risks, such as possibly health damaging low level radioactive emissions in normal operation and the worldwide unresolved problem of final repositories for nuclear waste. • Cost cuts necessary as a consequence of the deregulation of the energy market have negative effects on safety culture and safety margins during construction and operation. • Investment in Nuclear Energy impedes or at least delays investments in efficiency measures and therefore impedes sustainable, resources preserving solutions. • The increasing world population, the growing scarcity of resources and the increasing global inequity are likely to raise the number of wars and augment terrorist activities: this prohibits the support of technologies and structures that enhance the vulnerability of a region, and calls for a rapid dismantling of such technologies and structures and for transformation of these into decentralized technologies and structures with high error tolerance and low potential of damage. From today´s perspective, Nuclear Energy does not have the potential to contribute significantly to climate policy or to the solution of the problems connected to “Peak Oil”: • Limits to development potential and speed, availability of capital and qualified staff curb the possibilities of Nuclear Energy, even in case of strong political backing. In fact, the coming decade will more likely see a reduction of the contribution than an increase of the rather small nuclear contribution. • As compared to energy efficiency, Nuclear Energy so far has not made a significant contribution to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions; energy efficiency measures have proved to be 6 Synthesis: Nuclear Power,