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Opportunities for Micropower and Fuel Cell/Gas Turbine Hybrid Systems in Industrial Applications

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Opportunities for Micropower and Fuel Cell/Gas Turbine Hybrid Systems in Industrial Applications Opportunities for Micropower and Fuel Cell/Gas Turbine Hybrid Systems in Industrial Applications Volume I: Main Text Subcontract No. 85X-TA009V Notice: Final Report to Lockheed Martin Energy Research Corporation and This report was prepared by Arthur D. Little for the account of the DOE Office of Industrial Lockheed Martin Energy Research Corporation and the DOE’s Technologies Office of Industrial Technologies. This report represents Arthur D. Little’s best judgment in light of information made available January 2000 to us. This report must be read in its entirety. The reader understands that no assurances can be made that all financial liabilities have been identified. This report does not constitute a legal opinion. No person has been authorized by Arthur D. Little to provide any information or make any representations not contained in this report. Any use the reader makes of this report, or any reliance upon or decisions to be made based upon this report are the responsibility of the reader. Arthur D. Little does not accept any responsibility for damages, if any, suffered by the reader based upon this report. Arthur D. Little, Inc. Acorn Park Cambridge, Massachusetts 02140-2390 U.S.A. Reference 38410 Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................1 1.1 Objectives........................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Background...................................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Overview of Micropower Technologies and Markets ..................................................................... 2 1.4 Leading Opportunities within the Industries of the Future.............................................................. 4 1.5 Potential Public Benefits ................................................................................................................10 1.6 Cross-Cutting R&D Needs .............................................................................................................12 1.7 Other Technology Support Needs ..................................................................................................15 1.8 Next Steps.......................................................................................................................................15 2 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................18 2.1 Background.....................................................................................................................................18 2.2 Objectives.......................................................................................................................................18 2.3 Approach ........................................................................................................................................19 3 Overview of Micropower Markets, Technologies and Applications ................................22 3.1 U.S. Electricity Consumption and Onsite Power Generation .........................................................22 3.2 Restructuring of U.S. Energy Markets............................................................................................23 3.3 Micropower Technologies and Markets ......................................................................................... 24 3.4 The Changing Structure of the Electric Power Industry.................................................................27 4 Opportunities for Micropower Technologies within the Industries of the Future..........30 4.1 Summary.........................................................................................................................................30 4.2 Key Applications by Industry.........................................................................................................32 4.3 Total Industrial Power Market........................................................................................................40 4.4 General Approach to the Industrial Opportunity Analysis .............................................................42 4.5 Anticipated Technology Development Schedules..........................................................................44 4.6 Application-Specific Estimates of the Entire Market in the Industries of the Future ....................45 4.7 Industry-Specific Conclusions........................................................................................................53 5 Public Benefits Analysis ......................................................................................................90 5.1 Modest R&D Success.....................................................................................................................91 5.2 Aggressive R&D Success...............................................................................................................93 5.3 Summary.........................................................................................................................................98 6 Detailed Technology Assessments...................................................................................100 6.1 Microturbines ...............................................................................................................................100 6.2 Reciprocating Engines..................................................................................................................110 6.3 Small Fuel Cell Systems...............................................................................................................120 6.4 Fuel Cell / Gas Turbine Hybrid Systems (Fuel Cell Hybrids)......................................................129 7 Summary of Research and Development Needs .............................................................134 7.1 Background...................................................................................................................................134 7.2 R&D Needs ..................................................................................................................................135 7.3 Other Technology Support Needs ................................................................................................143 8 Summary and Conclusions................................................................................................144 8.1 Drivers in Industrial Markets........................................................................................................144 8.2 Applications for Micropower and Fuel Cell Hybrid Technology.................................................147 8.3 National Benefits and Potential Supporting OIT Activities..........................................................160 9 Glossary...............................................................................................................................164 10 List of Acronyms.................................................................................................................168 11 References...........................................................................................................................170 i List of Tables Table 1: Micropower and Fuel Cell Hybrid Technologies and Markets ......................................................3 Table 2: Key Drivers for Onsite Generation.................................................................................................3 Table 3: Industrial Power Applications Considered.....................................................................................4 Table 4: Scenarios Considered for the Industrial Opportunities Analysis....................................................6 Table 5: Technologies Considered ...............................................................................................................6 Table 6: Potential Market Penetration for Micropower (25-1,000 kW) and Fuel Cell Hybrids (0.25-20 MW) within the Industries of the Future – Aggressive R&D Success, Deregulated Scenario.....11 Table 7: Summary of Potential Public Benefits within the Industries of the Future by Industrial Application – Aggressive R&D Success, Deregulated Scenario ..................................................11 Table 8: Summary of Micropower R&D Needs.........................................................................................12 Table 9: Micropower and Fuel Cell Hybrid Technologies and Markets ....................................................25 Table 10: Key Drivers for Onsite Generation...............................................................................................26 Table 11: Definitions of Industries Considered............................................................................................41 Table 12: Assumed Technology Performance Characteristics .....................................................................44 Table 13: Scenarios Considered for the Industrial Opportunities Analysis..................................................54 Table 14: Leading Opportunities for Micropower and Fuel Cell Hybrids in the Food Products Industry ...56 Table 15: Leading Opportunities for Micropower and Fuel Cell Hybrids in the Textiles Industry..............58 Table 16: Leading Opportunities for Micropower and Fuel Cell Hybrids in the
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