TWO REBEL ROADS TO POWER Explaining Variation in the Transition from Genocidal Violence to Rebel Governance in Contemporary Rwanda and Burundi A Thesis Presented to the Faculty of The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University By Noel Twagiramungu IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY April 2014 Dissertation Committee: Professor Peter Uvin, Co-chair Professor Eileen Babbitt, Co-chair Professor Jens Meierhenrich, Reader ii ABSTRACT Rwanda and Burundi are often considered twin countries, exhibiting almost identical historical and linguistic heritage, cultural norms and practices, and social and political structures. Equally landlocked, poor in natural resources, and aid-dependent, the two former Belgian colonial territories have since the 1990s emerged from comparable instances of genocidal violence and rebel-led transitions. Yet, these transitions occurred in radically different ways. The Tutsi- dominated Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) came to power through a military victory and established a strong, donor-darling state with an exaggerated presence in the international arena. Burundi’s Hutu-dominated Conseil National pour la Défense de la Démocratie-Forces de Défense de la Démocratie, (CNDD-FDD) forced a Tutsi-controlled army to negotiate a power- sharing arrangement and now presides over a divided government with little influence beyond its national borders. This dissertation argues that these divergent transitions are not simply an outcome of contingent and idiosyncratic factors such as war, genocide, conflict endgame, external influences or individual leaders. Instead, the differences are better understood as the continuation of longstanding political patterns. The argument rests on four empirical findings. First, the coming into being of Rwanda and Burundi was the result of complex processual developments of political negotiation rather than instantaneous structures created whole each under one founding father. Nevertheless, the origins of the current patterns of governance can be traced back to the early political foundations of each state. One of Rwanda’s foundational monarchs, Ruganzu Ndori, came to power by force in a time of extreme turmoil; he introduced two innovative political tools -- a strong army and a clientele system known as ubuhake -- which allowed the central court increasing control over its expanding territory. Burundi’s founder, Ntare Rushatsi, rose to prominence in peacetime, by gradually extending his influence over complex iii webs of power-holders; the resultant royal structures were based on a delicate web of relations among several semi-autonomous princes. As Ruganzu’s successors consolidated power, by the mid-eighteenth century Rwanda came to be a highly militarized and fairly centralized kingdom. By contrast, Burundi retained its features of a confederation among regional authorities. Second, the foundational political styles responded to the challenges of their times, adapting to shifting dynamics; neither colonial domination nor the post-independence rise of military rule, democratization processes or rebel governance reversed the age-old trends. Third, this dissertation explains why, upon assuming power, new leaders tend to reproduce the same governance systems they once vowed to eradicate. I argue that political entrepreneurs, including rebellions, find themselves obliged to preserve institutions and practices that resonate most with the society as a whole. They do so both in their individual efforts to minimize the risks of uncertainties (as instrumental-rational theorists may correctly suggest), and because, having been socialized into these norms and practices, they have had to internalize and work within them to achieve success. Fourth, the prevailing patterns of governance--centralization in Rwanda, fragmentation in Burundi--, while self-reinforcing, are neither linear nor deterministic. The analysis examines five pairs of variables whose interactions and trade-offs shape each society’s responses to ever- changing challenges and opportunities: relations between past and present; center and periphery; agency and structure; elites and multiple lay groupings; internal and external factors. Put together, the findings suggest that good understanding of the core norms and practices likely to shape the boundaries of choices and margins of maneuver available to individual and institutional actors is key for designing balanced, well-informed, context-sensitive and change-oriented policies. iv CURRICULUM VITAE NOEL TWAGIRAMUNGU 45 Warner St, Springfield, MA 01108 Ph: 413 731 2482 [email protected] _____________________________________________________________________________________ CURRENT POSITIONS Research Associate, Government Department, Smith College 2012- 2014 Research Fellow, World Peace Foundation at The Fletcher School, Tufts University 2013- 2014 EDUCATION Tufts University-The Fletcher School, International Relations, PhD degree anticipated May 2014 Dissertation: “Two Rebel Roads to Power: Explaining Variation in the Transition from Genocidal Violence to Rebel Governance in Contemporary Rwanda and Burundi.” Utrecht University (Netherlands), LLM, International and European Human Rights Law 2005 Dissertation: ‘‘Gacaca or Grassroots Justice: Its Roots in International Law and Implications for Human Rights.’’ National University of Rwanda, Butare, Rwanda, BA, African Languages and Literature 1995 COLLEGE TEACHING & OTHER RELATED EXPERIENCE Research Associate &Lecturer, Smith College, Department of Government 2012 - present Have taught two courses: Contemporary Politics in Africa, and The Rwanda Genocide in Comparative Perspective Lecturer, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania 2011- 2012 Taught courses on Human Rights; Conflict Resolution and Peace-making in Africa; Regional Integration; International Law; and Research Methodology Instructor, The Rift Valley Institute Summer Program, Entebbe, Uganda Summer, 2010 Fellow scholar, W.E.B. DuBois Institute at Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA 2005-2006 RESEARCH & CONSULTING POSITIONS Country Expert, V-Dem (Varieties of Democracy) Project, Rwanda Chapter 2013- Present Coder, Global Leadership Project, Boston University, Boston, USA 2011-2012 Contributor, Oxford Bibliographies Online New York, USA 2011-2012 Consultant, Sant’Anna School/Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Pisa, Italy 2009 National Consultant, The Nordic Africa Institute Upssala, Sweden 2002-2005 Consultant, Développement et Paix, Montréal, Canada 2004 v Consultant, Clingendael Institute, The Hague, Netherlands 2002-2004 National Consultant, UNDP Kigali, Rwanda/New York, USA 1999-2000 EXECUTIVE MANAGEMENT & FIELDWORK EXPERIENCE Executive Director, LDGL (Human Rights Umbrella of Burundi, Rwanda & DRC) 1999-2004 Founder &Coordinator, Documentation Centre on Genocide Trials in Rwanda 1998-1999 Project coordinator, CLADHO (Rwandan Human Rights Umbrella) 1997-1998 Project coordinator, United Nations Field Operation in Rwanda 1996-1998 PUBLICATIONS Manuscripts Historical Dictionary of Burundi (under contract with Scarecrow Press). Book Chapters “Rwanda.” In Oxford Bibliographies in African Studies. Ed. Thomas Spear. New York: Oxford University Press, 2012. “Cyiza ou l’incarnation de la bonne puissance.” in Thierry Cruvellier et al., Augustin Cyiza : Un homme Libre au Rwanda. Paris: Karthala,2004. “Le 23 Avril.” [with André Guichaoua and Claudine Vidal] in Thierry Cruvellier et al., Augustin Cyiza : Un homme Libre au Rwanda. Paris: Karthala, 2004. Book reviews Review of Timothy Longman 'Christianity and Genocide in Rwanda', Africa, 81(2011): 509-511 Review of Patricia Daley, “Gender and Genocide in Burundi: The Search for Spaces of Peace in the Great Lakes Region,” International Journal of African Historical Studies, 42(2), 2009: 296-297. Book Review of Guichaoua, André. Rwanda 1994: les politiques du génocide à Butare. African Studies Review Vol. 50, No. 1, April (2007). Conference papers “Can Post-genocide Rwanda Escape the Curse of Totalitarianism?” Paper presented at Colgate University, Hamilton, NY, April 7, 2014 “Rwanda, Past and Present: An Insider-Outsider View.” Paper presented at State University at Buffalo, April 24, 2014. “The Art of Breaking Silence: Anger, Resistance and Hope through Popular Music in Post‐ Genocide.” Paper to be presented at the Fifty Fifth Annual Meeting, ASA, Philadelphia, November 29, 2012 “The Anatomy of Leadership: A view-from-within of Post-genocide Rwanda,” paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the African Studies Association, San Francisco, California, November 2010. The paper won the 2011 African Studies Association Graduate student best paper prize. vi ‘‘Can Scholars of Human Security Reach out to the Powerless?’’ paper presented at the Gary Gaile Conference, American University, Washington, DC, April 13, 2010. ‘‘Démocratisation et édification des États en Afrique: Enjeux et perspectives vus d’en bas. http://www.ccic.ca/e/docs/003_acf_2008_acf_democratization_afiquebis1.pdf AWARDS & GRANTS Graduate Student Paper Prize for the best paper presented at the Annual Meeting ASA, 2011 Feinstein International Center Summer Grant, Tufts University, 2010 Fletcher PhD Fund, Tufts University, “Field Research in the Great Lakes of Africa,” 2009-2013 The Institute of Human Security scholarship, Tufts University, 2006-2008; 2010-2013 Institute on Qualitative Research Methods, Syracuse University, 2009 ‘‘In-residence scholar’’ fellowship, Institute for Global Leadership at Tufts