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VSA: Uwe Hoering China’S Long March 2.0 the Belt and Road Initiative As Development Model VSA: Uwe Hoering China’s Long March 2.0 The Belt and Road Initiative as development model In Cooperation with Stiftung Asienhaus Uwe Hoering China’s Long March 2.0 The Belt and Road Initiative as development model Uwe Hoering is a freelance journalist specialising in interna- tional financial institutions, agricultural investments in Africa and China’s role in South and Southeast Asia. During extended stays abroad in India and East Africa and numerous research trips to South Asia, Southeast Asia, China and Mongolia, his work has repeatedly dealt with topics that are also raised by B&R. In ad- dition to the activities of international financial institutions and China’s role in global agriculture, these include infrastructure development and economic corridors, the economic, social and ecological consequences of large-scale projects, the effects of re- source exploitation, the importance of civil society organisations and social movements, and the controversies surrounding devel- opment models and strategies. His publications include “Vorsicht Weltbank. Armut, Kli- mawandel, Menschenrechtsverletzungen“, „Agrar-Kolonialis- mus in Afrika. Eine andere Landwirtschaft ist möglich“ (both published by VSA: Verlag) and contributions in various publi- cations, including Blätter für deutsche und internationale Poli- tik, iz3w, junge Welt. He is a member of the board of the Stiftung Asienhaus in Cologne. Uwe Hoering China’s Long March 2.0 The Belt and Road Initiative as development model In Cooperation with Stiftung Asienhaus VSA: Verlag Hamburg www.vsa-verlag.de www.globe-spotting.de www.asienhaus.de This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-Share- Alike 2.0 Germany License © VSA: Verlag 2018, St. Georgs Kirchhof 6, 20099 Hamburg Coverphoto: Khunjerab Pass, Border between Pakistan and China (Photo: Kumail Ali Naqvi, Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International) ISBN 978-3-89965-XXX-X Inhalt Foreword ..................................................................................... 9 1. Introduction ........................................................................... 15 Chongqing – Duisburg ............................................................. 16 „Belt“ and „Road“ ..................................................................... 17 The path is created while walking ............................................ 18 Geo-economics and geopolitics in the New Age of Globalisation .............................................. 20 Construction sites on the Silk Roads ....................................... 21 2. Ways out of the crisis ............................................................ 25 Go West, Go Out ....................................................................... 25 Limits to growth ....................................................................... 27 Made in China 2025 ................................................................. 28 Reorganisation of the armada ................................................. 30 Internationalization of the regulatory model .......................... 32 3. Infrastructure as growth strategy ........................................ 35 Mega plans ................................................................................ 35 An economic corridor as a turning point ................................. 37 Economic stimulus program as debt trap ................................ 39 Mega risks ................................................................................ 40 Loose guidelines ....................................................................... 42 Korinna Horta: "Germany lends credibility to the AIIB" ................................. 44 4. Opportunities and risks in Central Asia ................................ 47 A bridging of 2000 years .......................................................... 47 Energy hub Xinjiang ................................................................. 49 Winner in the new distribution roulette .................................. 51 Russia, the naked gun .............................................................. 52 Bridges across the Amur .......................................................... 54 Unequal partners ...................................................................... 56 5. Limits of Ecological Civilisation ........................................... 59 Homework ................................................................................ 60 Coal for "Front-line states" ...................................................... 62 Resource Curse 4.0 ................................................................... 64 With B&R onwards to ecological civilization? ........................ 65 Sukhgerel Dugersuren: "Mongolia has missed the opportunity for an alternative development path" ............................................... 68 6. Top dog in Southeast Asia ..................................................... 71 Connect and integrate .............................................................. 71 Securing claims ........................................................................ 73 Build dependency ..................................................................... 75 Promise development prospects .............................................. 76 Showing the flag ....................................................................... 79 Wolfram Schaffar: "The idea of d​​ emocracy has been discredited" ...................... 80 7. China rule the waves ............................................................. 85 Admiral Zheng He is needed again .......................................... 86 A bride in every harbour .......................................................... 87 Taking hold of the "Shining pearl" .......................................... 88 Does the flag follow the trade? ................................................ 90 8. Tensions in South Asia .......................................................... 93 Brothers become opponents ..................................................... 93 Regional infrastructure arms race .......................................... 95 Gaps in the economic corridor ................................................. 96 Hopes for a new friendship ..................................................... 98 9. A bridge to Africa ................................................................. 101 China in Africa ........................................................................ 101 Image problems ...................................................................... 102 Restart with Xi Jinping .......................................................... 104 African Renaissance ............................................................... 106 Just a branch line? .................................................................. 107 10. Investors on the Balkan route ........................................... 109 Gateway to Europe .................................................................. 109 Eastern Europe flirts with China ............................................ 111 Europe is looking for answers ................................................. 113 Uneasiness in the Mediterranean .......................................... 114 Frans-Paul van der Putten: "The Silk Roads should be a joint project" .............................. 116 11. Contours of a new hegemony ............................................. 119 To find them... .......................................................................... 119 Potential conflicts .................................................................... 121 Security architecture .............................................................. 122 In imperial footsteps? ............................................................. 124 Audacity or hubris .................................................................. 126 Au Loong Yu: „Xi cannot eliminate all opposition“ ...................................... 128 Literature ................................................................................ 133 Foreword When the first freight trains with computer parts from China ar- rived in Duisburg in 2012 and soon also in other European cit- ies, it was hardly foreseeable which circles would be drawn by the stone thrown into the water. The rail links were one of the first "New Silk Roads" to become the sign of China's economic, domes- tic and foreign policy known as the Belt and Road Initiative1 since President Xi Jinping took office. Packed in a historical-idealising gown, China is to once again take its claimed place with them as the central 'Middle Kingdom' and full-scale great power. The ma- terial basis for this is the systematic expansion of the state capi- talist model of development and order, which explicitly sees and offers itself as an alternative to the model of a neoliberal, Western democratic and liberal social order and its global governance. Is the dominance of the Anglo-European-centred paradigm of im- proving the world now being replaced by a new perspective from Asia - and is the East Wind defeating the West Wind? The circles have taken on enormous proportions in a very short time. The official government narrative, which is a mixture of sparse facts and a lot of PR, offers a broad and contradictory in- terpretation scenario, as do the countless debates and attempts at classification in the media, science, business and national and international politics. At the same time, new questions and top- ics are raised. B&R inspires
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