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Analyses Prospectives De Mortalité : Approches Actuarielle Et Biomédicale

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Analyses Prospectives De Mortalité : Approches Actuarielle Et Biomédicale ANALYSES PROSPECTIVES DE MORTALITE : APPROCHES ACTUARIELLE ET BIOMEDICALE N°d’ordre NNT : 2018LYSE1096 THESE de DOCTORAT DE L’UNIVERSITE DE LYON opérée au sein de l’Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 Ecole Doctorale N° 486 Sciences économiques et de gestion Spécialité de doctorat : Sciences actuarielles Discipline : Sciences de Gestion Soutenue publiquement le 25/06/2018, par : Edouard DEBONNEUIL Analyses prospectives de mortalité : approches actuarielle et biomédicale 1 ANALYSES PROSPECTIVES DE MORTALITE : APPROCHES ACTUARIELLE ET BIOMEDICALE Devant le jury composé de : Charpentier, Arthur Professeur des Universités Université de Rennes Rapporteur Wagner, Joël Professeur HEC Lausanne Rapporteur Hillairet, Caroline Maître de Conférences ENSAE-ParisTech Examinatrice Moyse, Emmanuel Professeur des Universités Université de Tours Examinateur d'Alessio, Patrizia Professeur Associé Université Paris Sud Examinatrice Robine, Jean-Marie Directeur de recherche Inserm Invité Viot, Cathy Professeur des Universités Université Lyon 1 Examinateur Planchet, Frédéric Professeur des Universités Université Lyon 1 Directeur de thèse Loisel, Stéphane Professeur des Universités Université Lyon 1 Co-directeur de thèse UNIVERSITE CLAUDE BERNARD - LYON 1 Président de l’Université M. le Professeur Frédéric FLEURY Président du Conseil Académique M. le Professeur Hamda BEN HADID Vice-président du Conseil d’Administration M. le Professeur Didier REVEL Vice-président du Conseil Formation et Vie Universitaire M. le Professeur Philippe CHEVALIER Vice-président de la Commission Recherche M. Fabrice VALLÉE Directrice Générale des Services Mme Dominique MARCHAND COMPOSANTES SANTE Faculté de Médecine Lyon Est – Claude Bernard Directeur : M. le Professeur G.RODE Faculté de Médecine et de Maïeutique Lyon Sud – Directeur : Mme la Professeure C. BURILLON Charles Mérieux Directeur : M. le Professeur D. BOURGEOIS Faculté d’Odontologie Directeur : Mme la Professeure C. Institut des Sciences Pharmaceutiques et Biologiques VINCIGUERRA Institut des Sciences et Techniques de la Réadaptation Directeur : M. X. PERROT Département de formation et Centre de Recherche en Directeur : Mme la Professeure A-M. SCHOTT Biologie Humaine COMPOSANTES ET DEPARTEMENTS DE SCIENCES ET TECHNOLOGIE Faculté des Sciences et Technologies Directeur : M. F. DE MARCHI Département Biologie Directeur : M. le Professeur F. THEVENARD Département Chimie Biochimie Directeur : Mme C. FELIX Département GEP Directeur : M. Hassan HAMMOURI Département Informatique Directeur : M. le Professeur S. AKKOUCHE Département Mathématiques Directeur : M. le Professeur G. TOMANOV Département Mécanique Directeur : M. le Professeur H. BEN HADID Département Physique Directeur : M. le Professeur J-C PLENET UFR Sciences et Techniques des Activités Physiques et Directeur : M. Y.VANPOULLE Sportives Observatoire des Sciences de l’Univers de Lyon Directeur : M. B. GUIDERDONI Polytech Lyon Directeur : M. le Professeur E.PERRIN Ecole Supérieure de Chimie Physique Electronique Directeur : M. G. PIGNAULT Institut Universitaire de Technologie de Lyon 1 Directeur : M. le Professeur C. VITON Ecole Supérieure du Professorat et de l’Education Directeur : M. le Professeur A. MOUGNIOTTE Institut de Science Financière et d'Assurances Directeur : M. N. LEBOISNE 2 ANALYSES PROSPECTIVES DE MORTALITE : APPROCHES ACTUARIELLE ET BIOMEDICALE Résumé La durée de vie humaine tend à augmenter dans le monde depuis quelques siècles. Cette augmentation a été plus importante que ne le prédisaient les spécialistes qui ont énoncé des limites à l’âge humain et ces limites ont été régulièrement dépassées. La baisse de la mortalité a d’abord concerné les enfants en bas âge, puis les âges inférieurs à 65 ans, et maintenant les âges les plus avancés. Ces étapes se voient sur l’historique de la mortalité. Malgré les incertitudes importantes sur l'avenir de la longévité, un moteur prometteur actuellement est celui de la biologie du vieillissement et ses applications. Une partie des travaux de cette thèse a consisté à documenter ces avancées, ce qui a fait l'objet d'un article (voir Moskalev (2017)) et à mettre ces avancées en perspective, avec des enjeux actuariels. L’industrie pharmaceutique prend conscience du potentiel des innovations biomédicales issues de la biologie du vieillissement et de grands acteurs de la pharmacie investissent en rachetant des biotechs et en développant leurs propres équipes internes. Ceci pourrait accélérer l'allongement de la vie. En parallèle, les modèles des actuaires de type Lee Carter (1992) tendent à prédire une décélération de la longévité. Une partie de cette thèse a consisté à analyser les causes mathématiques de cette décélération artificielle. En partant d'un modèle ne produisant pas de décélération (voir Bongaarts (2014)), plusieurs modèles de mortalité future sont ici développés, qui produisent des augmentations constantes d'espérance de vie. Testés sur des pays de l'OCDE sur plusieurs décennies, il apparait qu'une augmentation voisine d'un trimestre par an était jusqu'à présent un meilleur prédicteur que les tendances de chaque pays. Les tables de mortalité généralement utilisées par les actuaires ne produisent pas ces tendances, et sont loin de représenter des avancées majeures issues de la biologie du vieillissement. L'évolution de la longévité a bien sûr un impact significatif sur certains dispositifs de protection sociale, dont en premier lieu la retraite. Pour les systèmes de retraite par répartition le ratio actifs / inactifs diminue et met en risque l’équilibre de ces régimes ; les leviers d’action sont connus mais sensibles politiquement. Pour les régimes par capitalisation, le ratio durée de vie en retraite / durée de vie active augmente, ce qui rend difficile la constitution d’un capital suffisant pour assurer des rentes viagères. Au cours de cette thèse nous avons pu estimer des impacts, sur des réserves par exemple, en fonction de l'avenir de la durée de vie. Si les impacts sont importants, à moyen terme ils restent limités y compris dans le cadre d'un scenario d' "échappement de la longévité" où les espérances de vie dépassent significativement 100 ou 120 ans. Les efforts pharmaceutiques en cours pour appliquer les résultats de la recherche biomédicale peuvent être craints du fait de leurs impacts sur les retraites. Cependant, le financement de ces efforts par les fonds de pension pourrait justement améliorer la performance des fonds et subvenir en partie aux besoins de financement des retraites. Un instrument permettant ces échanges financiers entre le monde biomédical et le monde actuariel a été décrit : le méga fonds de longévité. Il s'agit de financer un grand nombre de développements pharmaceutiques afin de bénéficier d'une mutualisation des risques cliniques et de capter financièrement les succès biomédicaux. Nous étudions ici dans quelle mesure un méga fonds de longévité peut répondre aux besoins. 3 ANALYSES PROSPECTIVES DE MORTALITE : APPROCHES ACTUARIELLE ET BIOMEDICALE Title in English Prospective analysis of longevity: actuarial and biomedical approaches. Summary The human lifespan has been increasing in the world for several centuries. This increase was greater than predicted by specialists who set limits to human age, and these limits were regularly exceeded. The increase in mortality first involved infants, then the ages below 65 and now the more advanced ages. These stages are observed in the mortality history. Despite the significant uncertainties about the future of longevity, a promising driver currently is that of the biology of aging and its applications. Part of the work of this thesis has been to document these advances, which was the subject of an article (see Moskalev (2017)) and to put these advances in perspective with actuarial issues. The pharmaceutical industry is becoming aware of the potential of biomedical innovations stemming from the biology of aging, and major players in pharmacy are investing in biotechs and developing their own internal teams. This could accelerate life extension. In parallel, models of actuaries such as Lee and Carter (1992) tend to predict a deceleration of longevity. Part of this thesis was to analyze the mathematical causes for this artificial deceleration. Starting from a model that does not produce deceleration (see Bongaarts (2014)), several models of future mortality are developed here, which produce constant increases in life expectancy. Tested over OECD countries over several decades, it appears that an increase of around one quarter per year was, until now, a better predictor than the trends in each country. The mortality tables generally used by actuaries do not produce these trends, and are far from representing major advances stemming from biology of aging. The evolution of longevity has of course a significant impact on some social protection schemes, in the first place on retirement. For pay-as-you-go pension systems the ratio of active to inactive decreases and puts the balance of these schemes at risk; the levers of action are known but are politically sensitive. For funded schemes, the ratio of retirement period to active life increases, making it difficult to build sufficient capital to provide life annuities. During this thesis we have been able to estimate impacts, for example on reserves, depending on the future of the life span. If the impacts are significant, in the medium term they remain limited, including in the context of a "longevity escape" scenario where life expectancy is significantly higher than 100 or 120 years.
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