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Adopting the Euro in Midst of Crisis Lithuania: a Case Study Julianne Maila A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in International Studies University of Washington Spring 2015 Committee Guntis Smidchens, Chair MiChelle Turnovsky Program authorized to offer degree: Henry M. JaCkson SChool of International Studies ©Copyright 2015 Julianne Maila 2 University of Washington Abstract Adopting the Euro in the Midst of Crisis Lithuania: a Case Study Julianne Maila Chair of the Supervisory Committee: Professor Guntis SmidChens Scandinavian Studies Lithuania has been one of only three nations to adopt the euro sinCe the global finanCial Crisis roCked the world and tested the viability of the Eurozone as a single CurrenCy union. Despite unCertainty about the future of the euro, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia went forward with adoption. This paper examines Lithuania’s road to the euro from 2004, when it joined the European Union, through to entry into the Eurozone on January 1, 2015. It summarizes the costs and benefits of Economic Monetary Union from both an eConomiC and politiCal standpoint, and analyzes the actions and statements of key players – the government, the organized opposition, the Central bank and the general publiC – and their influenCe on the adoption proCess in Lithuania. 3 Table of Contents SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 6 1.1 RESEARCH QUESTIONS ............................................................................................................................ 7 1.2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................................................... 7 SECTION 2: ECONOMIC LITERATURE ON ECONOMIC MONETARY UNION (EMU) ................................... 8 2.1 COSTS AND BENEFITS OF ECONOMIC MONETARY UNION (EMU) .................................................................... 9 The Economic Case for EMU ................................................................................................................ 9 The Economic Case Against EMU ...................................................................................................... 10 The Political Case for EMU ................................................................................................................. 12 The Political Case Against EMU ......................................................................................................... 15 2.2 EXAMINING EURO ADOPTION FROM THE DECISION MAKERS STANDPOINT ...................................................... 16 SECTION 3: CASE STUDY – LITHUANIA ................................................................................................. 17 3.1 BACKGROUND ...................................................................................................................................... 17 3.2 PATH TO THE EUROZONE - MACROECONOMIC FACTORS .............................................................................. 17 3.3 MAIN PLAYERS IN EURO ADOPTION ......................................................................................................... 24 Government: Resolved Supporter ...................................................................................................... 24 Opposition: Non-influential Minority ................................................................................................. 35 Central Bank: Steadfast Proponent ................................................................................................... 38 Public Opinion: A Significant Yet Ineffectual Voice ............................................................................ 44 Financial Crisis and the Advantages and Disadvantages of Eurozone Membership .......................... 49 CHAPTER 4: CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................... 54 APPENDIX ........................................................................................................................................... 56 PRESIDENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF LITHUANIA (2004 – PRESENT) ........................................................................ 56 FINANCE MINISTERS OF THE REPUBLIC OF LITHUANIA (2004 – PRESENT) ............................................................. 56 MINISTERS FOR SOCIAL SECURITY AND LABOR (2004 – PRESENT) ....................................................................... 57 PRIME MINISTERS OF THE REPUBLIC OF LITHUANIA (2004 – PRESENT) ................................................................ 57 CHAIRMEN OF THE BOARD OF THE BANK OF LITHUANIA (2004 – PRESENT) .......................................................... 57 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................................................... 58 FIGURES Figure 3.1 Maastricht Criteria ............................................................................................................ 20 Figure 3.2 Lithuania Convergence Reports (2004 – 2014) ................................................................. 20 Figure 3.3 Inflation (2003 – 2014) ..................................................................................................... 22 Figure 3.4 Real GDP Growth Rate (2003 – 2014) ............................................................................... 22 Figure 3.5 Lithuanian GDP (1990 – 2013) .......................................................................................... 22 Figure 3.6 Lithuanian Minimum Wage Increases (2004 – 2014) ....................................................... 30 Figure 3.7 Benefits of Euro Adoption According to the Lithuanian Central Bank .............................. 38 Figure 3.8 Percentage of Total Imports from the EU (2002 – 2014) .................................................. 40 Figure 3.9 Percentage of Total Exports to the EU (2002 – 2014) ....................................................... 40 Figure 3.10 Lithuania’s Major Import Partners Share of Trade (1994 – 2013) .................................. 40 Figure 3.11 Lithuania’s Major Export Partners Share of Trade (1994 – 2013) ................................... 41 Figure 3.12 Lithuania’s Major Import Partners Share of Trade without Mineral Fuels (2004 – 2013) ........................................................................................................................................................... 41 4 Figure 3.13 Lithuania’s Major Export Partners Share of Trade without Mineral Fuels (2004 – 2013) ........................................................................................................................................................... 41 Figure 3.14 Lithuanian Support for the Euro ..................................................................................... 45 Figure 3.15 Latvian Support for the Euro ........................................................................................... 45 Figure 3.16 Estonian Support for the Euro ......................................................................................... 46 Figure 3.17 Percentage of Population with Eurosceptic Beliefs ......................................................... 46 Figure 3.18 Opinion: When Should the Euro be Adopted in Lithuania? ............................................. 47 Figure 3.19 Opinion: Euro Adoption Will Increase Prices in Lithuania ............................................... 47 Figure 3.20 Opinion: Euro Adoption Means Lithuania Will Lose a Part of Its Identity ....................... 48 Figure 3.21 Opinion: The Euro Will Ensure Lower Interest Rates in Lithuania ................................... 51 Figure 3.22 Opinion: The Euro Will Improve Growth and Employment in Lithuania ......................... 52 Figure 3.23 Opinion: The Euro Will Ensure Sounder Public Finances in Lithuania ............................. 52 Figure 3.24 Opinion: The Euro Will Reinforce Lithuania’s Place in the World .................................... 53 Figure 3.25 Opinion: The Euro Will Protect Lithuania from the Effects of International Crisis .......... 53 Figure 3.26 Opinion: The Euro Will Increase Inflation in Lithuania .................................................... 53 5 SECTION 1: Introduction On May 1st, 2004, the European Union (EU) experienCed the most signifiCant enlargement sinCe its inCeption, admitting ten new member states,1 eight of whiCh were former Soviet bloC nations. These Countries, along with Bulgaria and Romania, whiCh joined the EU in 2007 and Croatia, whiCh acCeded in 2013, are all obligated to fulfill the ConvergenCe Criteria acCording to the MaastriCht Treaty2 and adopt the euro as their Common CurrenCy. Since 2004, five of these 11 Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) have fulfilled the requirements and entered the Eurozone.3 Slovenia joined in 2007 and Slovakia in 2009,4 yet onCe the global finanCial Crisis hit in late 2008, none of the other CEECs moved forward to adopt the Euro with as muCh vigor as the BaltiC States. SinCe 2008, the only nations to adopt the Euro have been the former Soviet republiCs of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, joining the euro area in 2011, 2014, and 2015, respeCtively. During this time, the future of the Eurozone as a single CurrenCy area has been under question and the euro area Continues to undergo a test of viability
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