OECD Economic Surveys Lithuania November 2020 OVERVIEW http://www.oecd.org/economy/lithuania-economic-snapshot/ This Overview is extracted from the 2020 Economic Survey of Lithuania. The Survey is published on the responsibility of the Economic and Development Review Committee of the OECD, which is charged with the examination of the economic situation of member countries. This document, as well as any data and any map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. 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Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at [email protected] or the Centre français d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC) at [email protected] of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. | 1 Executive summary OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: LITHUANIA 2020 © OECD 2020 2 | The covid crisis hit a buoyant rural areas while facilitating migration to more economy prosperous areas. Table 1. The economy is projected to The strong pre-COVID-19 economy boosted rapid convergence towards the OECD average rebound incomes. An investment-friendly business 2019 2020 2021 climate helped attract foreign direct investment Percentage changes, and integration in global-value chains. volume (2015 prices) GDP at market prices 4.3 -2.0 2.7 Private consumption 3.4 -3.2 2.8 Figure 1. Lithuania is converging rapidly Gross fixed capital formation 6.2 -6.6 3.8 GDP per capita, difference to OECD upper half Exports 9.5 -4.7 3.7 100 100 Imports 6.3 -6.9 5.5 90 90 Consumer price index 2.2 1.2 1.5 80 80 Unemployment rate 6.3 8.8 8.1 Government financial balance (% 0.3 -8.9 -5.4 70 70 of GDP) 60 60 Current account (% of GDP) 3.5 5.2 3.9 50 50 Source: OECD Economic Outlook 108 database (provisional). 40 40 30 30 20 20 Figure 2. Poverty is high 10 10 Poverty rate after taxes and transfers (50% poverty 0 0 line), % of population, 2018 or latest year 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: OECD Economic Outlook database. 20 20 StatLink 2 https://doi.org/10.1787/888934184814 18 18 16 16 The recovery will be uncertain. The COVID-19 14 14 recession was comparatively mild, and the 12 12 economy is recovering. The government swiftly 10 10 set up a programme supporting households and 8 8 firms, representing almost 10% of GDP, and 6 6 plans new investments to support long-term 4 4 growth. The economy is expected to contract by 2 2 2% in 2020 and to rebound by 2.7% in 2021, and 0 0 ISL IRL ITA FIN LTU BEL LVA EST CZE FRA NLD AUT CHL SVK POL TUR SVN USA unemployment will rise to around 9%, yet DNK DEU HUN MEX NOR GRC SWE protracted disruptions in world trade would be OECD Source: OECD Income Distribution Database. harmful for the outlook. StatLink 2 https://doi.org/10.1787/888934184833 Poverty is high, especially among the unemployed, less educated, single parents and Growth should be greener. CO2 emissions are older people. The tax-benefit system is not very below OECD average and declining, but mortality redistributive and its size below the OECD from exposure to fine particles is the highest in average. The government should increase social the OECD. Transport and energy are the main support while keeping work incentives. sources of emissions. Environmental taxation is low. The government set up a programme to co- Regional disparities are increasing. fund private climate investment and wants to Investment in peripheral regions is low and reach carbon neutrality by 2050. The government labour mobility towards economically strong should also introduce a CO2 tax. areas insufficient. Productivity differences between core and peripheral regions are rising. The government should continue investing in OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: LITHUANIA 2020 © OECD 2020 | 3 Figure 3. Regional inequality is rising Reforming state-owned enterprises Productivity gap between rural and urban areas, could boost the recovery premium in GDP per capita, % Wages grew faster than productivity over the 80 80 past few years, reducing competitiveness while 70 70 boosting lower incomes. Reforming state-owned 60 60 enterprises could help raise productivity. 50 50 40 40 Figure 4. Competitiveness is declining 30 30 Index, 2005 = 100 200 200 20 20 Labour productivity, total economy 190 190 10 10 Real minimum wages, annual 180 180 Real wage rate, total economy 0 0 170 170 2007 2008 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 160 160 Source: OECD Regional database. 150 150 StatLink 2 https://doi.org/10.1787/888934184852 140 140 130 130 Fiscal and financial policies are 120 120 sound 110 110 100 100 Sound fiscal policy over the past years has 2010 2011 2012 2013 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 created fiscal space to help the economy in the Source: Economic Outlook database; and OECD Earnings current crisis. database. StatLink 2 Fiscal policy is expansionary. The https://doi.org/10.1787/888934184871 constitutional fiscal law of 2015 provides for tight surveillance. In 2019 the budget was in a small State-owned enterprises are oversized. The surplus. To help households and firms to weather scope of state-owned enterprise (SOE) belongs the COVID-19 crisis, the government plans to the largest in the OECD. Governance has additional tax and spending measures totalling improved over the past two years following the 10% of GDP. As a result, the balance is expected adoption of the 2018 “SOE Reorganisation and to turn sharply negative in 2020. Once fiscal Optimization Plan”, but remains weak against positions have recovered, the government OECD standards. Only half of the SOEs reach should simplify the fiscal framework and set a their targets. A clearer strategy defining the long-term debt target. rationale for public ownership is needed, and SOEs should be subject to same regulations and The COVID-19 crisis affects credit. About 40% market constraints as private companies. of the corporate sector was affected by containment measures, exacerbating funding Municipal SOEs pose a particular challenge. challenges especially for small firms. Non- Around 250 municipal enterprises are active performing loans in the banking sector declined across 40 sectors, ranging from energy supply, markedly, and frequent use of macro-prudential waste treatment to local public transport, with few regulation helped strengthen financial stability. limits set on their scope. Municipal SOEs often The government eased financial conditions compete with private providers and cross- following the COVID-19 crisis and should subsidise corporate activities with revenues from continue to do so. publicly supported ones, distorting competition. The government should strengthen the regulatory framework for municipal enterprises, by establishing a level playing field between public and private providers. OECD ECONOMIC SURVEYS: LITHUANIA 2020 © OECD 2020 4 | Figure 5. State-owned enterprises proliferate Figure 6. School outcomes are weak Scope of public ownership, Index from 0 to 6 PISA scores, average, 2018 (greatest scope), 2018 540 540 6 6 2013 520 520 5 5 500 500 480 480 4 4 460 460 3 3 440 440 2 2 420 420 400 400 1 1 380 380 ITA FIN CRI JPN LTU LVA EST CHL CZE SVK POL TUR USA SVN COL DNK CAN DEU HUN KOR MEX GRC 0 0 SWE OECD ITA FIN CRI LTU LVA EST CZE NLD FRA SVK ESP POL SVN COL CAN DNK DEU HUN GBR KOR MEX GRC NOR SWE OECD Source: PISA 2018 database. Source: OECD Product Market Regulation database. StatLink 2 https://doi.org/10.1787/888934184909 StatLink 2 https://doi.org/10.1787/888934184890 Reforms to increase public integrity should Education should foster strong and bear fruit. Indicators of control and perceived relevant skills risks of corruption suggest performance below OECD averages. Sectors with corrupt practices Strong and relevant skills could help accelerate include health care and public procurement. In the recovery and reduce inequality across 2019 the shadow economy shrank after rising regions and income groups. The education during four consecutive years. Recent policy infrastructure should better adapt to higher skill measures to prevent foreign bribery have been needs and shrinking student numbers. impressive. Public integrity should remain a Performance of primary and lower secondary guiding principle in the government’s efforts to education is weak. Spending on infrastructure implement the 2015-2025 anti-corruption is excessive, reflecting high spending on overly programme. small schools. School performance lacks systematic oversight. Recent reforms were rather Figure 7. Control of corruption remains below shy, mainly involving an increase in teacher OECD average salaries.