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ELECTIONS in INDIA 1952-96 Constituency Profiles, Results and Analysis Focussing Poll 1996

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ELECTIONS in INDIA 1952-96 Constituency Profiles, Results and Analysis Focussing Poll 1996 ELECTIONS IN INDIA 1952-96 Constituency Profiles, Results and Analysis Focussing Poll 1996 J. C . A g g a r w a l N . K . C h o w d h k y 2012 MSU LIBRARY 27232 K)b ISBN 81-85402-82-5(HB) 81-85402-83-3(PB) First Published, in India, in 1996 © J. C. Aggarwal and N. K. Chowdhry Published by: SHIPRA PUBUCATIONS 115-A Vikas Marg, Shakarpur D elhi - 110092 (India) ■ / . Phones: 2458662, 2200954 Laser Typeset by: L.C. Publishing Service Phone: 6853926. Printed at: Nice Printing Press D elhi - 110051. Preface At the Eleventh General Elections, the Indian voters faced an unusual dilemma. The 'Hawala Scandal' covered leaders from all the tiiree major political parties — the Congress, Bharatiya Janata Party and the Janata Dal. Should all the political parties be condemned on this account? Do they deserve the voters confidence at all? Total abstinence would have made the political system entirely dysfunctional. So a choice had to be made. For the ordinary voter, democracy seemed to have become somev^hat irrelevant at least as it is followed in the present form. A few people at the top elected by popular mandate had totally betrayed the confidence reposed in them. They had been using the power of the State for their personal gains, at best benefiting their own kith and kin in total violation of all norms of political and official conduct. Public money had been siphoned off into private diannels througji 'Scams' that would have led to a hundred 'harakaris' in any other political system. It was no longer government by the people. Neither was it for the people. The nation lost hundreds of crores of rupees through decisions taken by politicians and connived by the bureaucrats. Political parties built up nexus with musclemen and criminals to intimidate the people in whom the Constitution of India lays down the sovereignty. There was no 'Messiah' in sigjit. There were no waves either. No one from the hallowed Nehru-Gandhi family was in the fray this tim e. (Maneka Gandhi is usually considered outside this clan.) And above all there was the Election Commission and the Judiciary determined to foil all attem pts by political parties to pollute the electoral process ttirough money or muscle power. It was against this scenario ttiat the 'people' had to assert their sovereignty. And they did it with courage and insist. There were currents and counter-currents. Politicians with a murky past had to be punished. At the same time anger against the corrupt had to be tempered with caution so that the new Lok Sabha was not devoid of talent and experience. Congress was no longer acceptable to the people as a party in whom trust could any further be reposed. The BJP was yet to become acceptable to the minorities specially the Muslims. The Dalits and OBC's were inclined to exercise power through Iheir own groups but their own groups lacked cohesion. The dilemmas were reflect^ in the poll results. The choice ultirriately feU to something of everything v«thout anything becoming powerful enough to exercise discretion for personal or party gains. The voters verdict w as clear in that they still had faith in democratic process. The system is not to be blamed for the omissions and commissions on the part of politicians and self-seeking partymen. W hat is needed is a perpetual deterrent to keep the politicians on the track. Is the grudging mandate of the people effective enough to bring iv Prfface about a change of heart in the politicians? Posterity alone will answer tlie million dollar question. The book attempts to elections in the light of the previous ten provide a detailed analj^is of tfie results of the 1996 Lok Sabha elections. It includes Statewise as well as regicaiwise comparative data. Political profile of each of the 543 constituencies has been given an imporant place. While all possible efforts are done to give correct objective data, it is possible that a few minor errors might have crept in here and there for which the authors crave the indulgence of tiie leaders. The authors extend tfieir grateful thanks to the various authors and publishers whose books they have consulted in the preparation of this book. It is hoped that this volume will prove to be of immense use to a cross section of die population especially those interested in elections and working of a democratic system of government J.C. Aggarwal N.K. Chowdhiy Contents Preface iii L jst o f T ab les v i Abbreviations xii 1. In d ia n P arliam ent a n d E lection C om m ission: So m e B asic F acts 1 2. F irst to T e n th L o k Sa bha E lections: P arty P erformances 14 3. H ig h u g h t s o f F irst T en E lections 2 7 4. Political Parties in India 34 5. E lection M anifestos 1996: A ll T his a n d H eaven To o 44 6 . State A ssemblies; P o sitio n of P olitical P arties 52 7. P repoll U ps a n d D o w n s 5 9 8. C o n d u c t of 19 9 6 E lections 75 9. 1996 E lec tion s: T h e T it-bits 8 3 10. 1996 E lection R esults at a G lance 89 11. Vo t in g P atterns a n d R egionw ise S w in gs: P erform ance o f M a jo r P olitical P arties 102 12. Statewise E lection D ata: P erspectives a n d A nalysis 120 13. Constttuencywise Lok Sabha Election Results 1991 a n d 1996 179 14. Reugion and Caste Composttion of Constituencies 198 15. Parties Profile of Lok Sabha CoNsirruENciES : F rom 1952 t o1996 241 16. Reactions and Responses 26 6 17. C h r o n o lo gy of M a in E vents: 1996 E lections 27 7 18. 13 D ays t o 13 P arties: Form ation o f G overnm ents at the C entre 28 6 In d e x 2 9 3 List of Tables 1.1; N um ber of Voters (1952-1996) 3 1.2: Statewise Distribution of Seats for the Lok Sabha 4 1.3; Average N um ber of Contestants per Lok Sabha Seat (1952 to 1996) 5 1.4: Occupational Background of Members from First to Tenth Lok Sabha 6 1.5: Educational Background of Members from First to Tenth Lok Sabha 7 1.6: No. of S.C. and S.T. Constituencies (1952-96) 11 1.7: M aximum Permissible Election Expenses 12 2.1: Party Position in the First Lok Sabha (1952-57) 14 2.2: Party Position in the Second Lok Sabha (1957-62) 15 2.3: Party Position in the Third Lok Sabha (1962-196^ 16 2.4: Party Position in the Fourth Lok Sabha (1961-1967) 16 2.5: Party Position in the Fifth Lok Sabha (1971-77) 17 2.6: Party Position in die Sixth Lok Sabha (1977-79) 18 2.7: Party Position in the Seventh Lok Sabha (1980-84) 19 2.8: Party Position in the Eighth Lok Sabha (1985-1990) 19 2.9: Party Position in the Ninth Lok Sabha (1989-1991) 20 2.10: P arty Position in the Tenth Lok Sabha (1991-95) 21 2.11: P arty Position as on January 31, 1996 21 2.12: Tenure of Lok Sabhas and Speakers (From First to Tenth) 25 2.13: Party Position in Ten Elections at a Glance (1952-1991) 26 3.1 Electorate and Votes Polled and Voter Ttim Out 27 3.2 Performance of the Congress Party 28 3.3 Number of Candidates Put up by Political Parties 29 3.4 Uncontested Returns by Congress and Others 31 3.5 Deposits Forfeited/Candidates Fielded 32 3.6 Seats and Percentage of Women in Ten Lok Sabhas 32 3.7 Victory Percentage of Women Candidates in the Lok Sabha Elections 1991 33 5.1: Comparative Analysis on Important Issues of Election Manifestoes 50 6.1: Party Position in State Assemblies 54 6.2: Parties Ruling the States (As in M ay 1996) 57 6.3: Party Position in the UP Assembly on October 27, 1995 58 7.1 Lok Sabha Alliance Partners 69 7.2 Statewise Alliances of Political Parites 70 7.3 Pre-poll Defections 72 List of Tables vii 7.4; The Time Poll Projections 73 7.5; Marg Opinion Poll Projections 74 7.6; Delhi D oordarshan Exit Pool 74 7.7; Rating of Persons Considered to Be Most Capable of Becoming Prime Minister 74 8.1 Statewise Electorates and Contesting Candidates — 1996 75 8.2 Lok Sabha Constituencies with over 20 per cent Muslim Voters 76 8.3 Stages of 1996 Polls 76 8.4 Election Schedule for Lok Sabha and Six State Assemblies (April-May 1996) 77 9.1; Kith and Kin in Elections 87 10.1; P arty Position in the Lok Sabha 1996; A Fact Sheet 89 10.2; Comparative Data on Party Position 90 10.3; Percentage of Votes Polled by Major Parties in 1996 and 1991 94 10.4; Age-Group Party Preferences (Percentage) 95 10.5; Religionwise Preference of Voters (Percentage) 95 10.6; Caste Preference for Parties (Percentage) 95 10.7; Rural U rban Preference for Parties 95 10.8; Rao Ministers; H ow They Fared 101 11.1; Strength of Regional Parties in the Lok Sabha (1989-1996) 102 11.2; Congress Performance in Eleven Lok Sabha Elections 103 11.3; BJS/BJP Performance in Eleven Lok Sabha Elections 104 11.4; CPI (I) Perform ance in Eleven Lok Sabha Electioris 105 11.5; CPI (M) Performance in Eleven Lok Sabha Elections 105 11.6; Performance of JP/JD in Eleven Lok Sabha Elections 106 11.7; Summary; Regionwise Party Performance 1996 107 11.8; Statewise Party Position in Lok Sabha as on 27 April 1992 107 11.9; Statewise Party Position in Lok Sabha as on 27 April 1995 109 11.10; Statewise Performance of the Congress 1991 v/s 1996 111 11.11; Statewise Perform ance of the BJP 1991 v / s 1996 112 11.12; Statewise Perform ance of the Janata Dal 1991 v / s 1996 113 11.13; Statewise Performance of the CPI and CPI (M) 1991 v/s 1996 114 11.14; Statewise Performance of the Independents and Others 1991 vs 1996 115 11.15: Analysis of Party Position in Regions 1991 v / s 1996 116 11.16; Regionwise Analysis of Congress Performance in 1996 117 11.17; Regionwise Analysis of BJP's Performance in 1996 117 11.18; Regionwise Analysis of CPI's Performance in 1996 Elections 117 11.19; Regionwise Analysis of CPI (M)'s Performance in 1996 Elections 117 11.20; Regionwise Analysis of J.'s Performance in 1996
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