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Covid Economics 50, 25 September 2020: 1-2 50, 25 September Covid Economics 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 COVID ECONOMICS VETTED AND REAL-TIME PAPERS EDITOR’S FOREWORD ISSUE 50 Charles Wyplosz 25 SEPTEMBER 2020 CORONA POLITICS Helios Herrera, Maximilian Konradt, Guillermo Ordoñez and Christoph Trebesch BOND MARKETS Andrea Zaghini US HOUSING MARKET INCOME AND MORTALITY Yunhui Zhao André Decoster, Thomas Minten and Johannes Spinnewijn VOTER TURNOUT 1 INTEGRATING HEALTH AND Tania Fernández-Navia, Eduardo Polo-Muro ECONOMICS and David Tercero-Lucas Alik Sokolov, Yichao Chen, VOTER TURNOUT 2 Jonathan Mostovoy, Andrew Roberts, Miguel Vázquez-Carrero, Joaquín Artés, Luis Seco and V. Kumar Murty Carmen García and Juan Luis Jiménez Covid Economics Vetted and Real-Time Papers Covid Economics, Vetted and Real-Time Papers, from CEPR, brings together formal investigations on the economic issues emanating from the Covid outbreak, based on explicit theory and/or empirical evidence, to improve the knowledge base. Founder: Beatrice Weder di Mauro, President of CEPR Editor: Charles Wyplosz, Graduate Institute Geneva and CEPR Contact: Submissions should be made at https://portal.cepr.org/call-papers- covid-economics. Other queries should be sent to [email protected]. Copyright for the papers appearing in this issue of Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers is held by the individual authors. The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) is a network of over 1,500 research economists based mostly in European universities. The Centre’s goal is twofold: to promote world-class research, and to get the policy-relevant results into the hands of key decision-makers. CEPR’s guiding principle is ‘Research excellence with policy relevance’. A registered charity since it was founded in 1983, CEPR is independent of all public and private interest groups. It takes no institutional stand on economic policy matters and its core funding comes from its Institutional Members and sales of publications. Because it draws on such a large network of researchers, its output reflects a broad spectrum of individual viewpoints as well as perspectives drawn from civil society. CEPR research may include views on policy, but the Trustees of the Centre do not give prior review to its publications. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and not those of CEPR. Chair of the Board Sir Charlie Bean Founder and Honorary President Richard Portes President Beatrice Weder di Mauro Vice Presidents Maristella Botticini Ugo Panizza Philippe Martin Hélène Rey Chief Executive Officer Tessa Ogden Editorial Board Beatrice Weder di Mauro, CEPR Simon Johnson, MIT and CEPR Charles Wyplosz, Graduate Institute Geneva Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, University of and CEPR Maryland and CEPR Rik Frehen Viral V. Acharya, Stern School of Business, Tom Kompas, University of Melbourne and NYU and CEPR CEBRA Guido Alfani, Bocconi University and CEPR Miklós Koren, Central European University Franklin Allen, Imperial College Business and CEPR School and CEPR Anton Korinek, University of Virginia and Michele Belot, European University Institute CEPR and CEPR Michael Kuhn, Vienna Institute of David Bloom, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Demography Public Health Maarten Lindeboom, Vrije Universiteit Nick Bloom, Stanford University and CEPR Amsterdam Tito Boeri, Bocconi University and CEPR Philippe Martin, Sciences Po and CEPR Alison Booth, University of Essex and CEPR Warwick McKibbin, ANU College of Asia and Markus K Brunnermeier, Princeton the Pacific University and CEPR Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke, NYU Abu Dhabi Michael C Burda, Humboldt Universitaet zu and CEPR Berlin and CEPR Evi Pappa, European University Institute and Aline Bütikofer, Norwegian School of CEPR Economics Barbara Petrongolo, Queen Mary University, Luis Cabral, New York University and CEPR London, LSE and CEPR Paola Conconi, ECARES, Universite Libre de Richard Portes, London Business School and Bruxelles and CEPR CEPR Giancarlo Corsetti, University of Cambridge Carol Propper, Imperial College London and and CEPR CEPR Fiorella De Fiore, Bank for International Lucrezia Reichlin, London Business School Settlements and CEPR and CEPR Mathias Dewatripont, ECARES, Universite Ricardo Reis, London School of Economics Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR and CEPR Jonathan Dingel, University of Chicago Booth Hélène Rey, London Business School and School and CEPR CEPR Barry Eichengreen, University of California, Dominic Rohner, University of Lausanne and Berkeley and CEPR CEPR Simon J Evenett, University of St Gallen and Paola Sapienza, Northwestern University and CEPR CEPR Maryam Farboodi, MIT and CEPR Moritz Schularick, University of Bonn and Antonio Fatás, INSEAD Singapore and CEPR CEPR Francesco Giavazzi, Bocconi University and Flavio Toxvaerd, University of Cambridge CEPR Christoph Trebesch, Christian-Albrechts- Christian Gollier, Toulouse School of Universitaet zu Kiel and CEPR Economics and CEPR Karen-Helene Ulltveit-Moe, University of Timothy J. Hatton, University of Essex and Oslo and CEPR CEPR Jan C. van Ours, Erasmus University Ethan Ilzetzki, London School of Economics Rotterdam and CEPR and CEPR Thierry Verdier, Paris School of Economics Beata Javorcik, EBRD and CEPR and CEPR Ethics Covid Economics will feature high quality analyses of economic aspects of the health crisis. However, the pandemic also raises a number of complex ethical issues. Economists tend to think about trade-offs, in this case lives vs. costs, patient selection at a time of scarcity, and more. In the spirit of academic freedom, neither the Editors of Covid Economics nor CEPR take a stand on these issues and therefore do not bear any responsibility for views expressed in the articles. Submission to professional journals The following journals have indicated that they will accept submissions of papers featured in Covid Economics because they are working papers. Most expect revised versions. This list will be updated regularly. American Economic Review Journal of Economic Growth American Economic Review, Applied Journal of Economic Theory Economics Journal of the European Economic American Economic Review, Insights Association* American Economic Review, Journal of Finance Economic Policy Journal of Financial Economics American Economic Review, Journal of International Economics Macroeconomics Journal of Labor Economics* American Economic Review, Journal of Monetary Economics Microeconomics Journal of Public Economics American Journal of Health Journal of Public Finance and Public Economics Choice Canadian Journal of Economics Journal of Political Economy Econometrica* Journal of Population Economics Economic Journal Quarterly Journal of Economics Economics of Disasters and Climate Review of Corporate Finance Studies* Change Review of Economics and Statistics International Economic Review Review of Economic Studies* Journal of Development Economics Review of Financial Studies Journal of Econometrics* (*) Must be a significantly revised and extended version of the paper featured in Covid Economics. Covid Economics Vetted and Real-Time Papers Issue 50, 25 September 2020 Contents Editor’s foreword: Issue 50: Where do we stand? 1 Charles Wyplosz Corona politics: The cost of mismanaging pandemics 3 Helios Herrera, Maximilian Konradt, Guillermo Ordoñez and Christoph Trebesch The Covid pandemic in the market: Infected, immune and cured bonds 33 Andrea Zaghini The income gradient in mortality during the Covid-19 crisis: Evidence from Belgium 74 André Decoster, Thomas Minten and Johannes Spinnewijn Integrating health and economic parameters to optimize COVID-19 mitigation strategies 101 Alik Sokolov, Yichao Chen, Jonathan Mostovoy, Andrew Roberts, Luis Seco and V. Kumar Murty The US housing market during COVID-19: Aggregate and distributional evidence 113 Yunhui Zhao Too afraid to vote? The effects of COVID-19 on voting behaviour 155 Tania Fernández-Navia, Eduardo Polo-Muro and David Tercero-Lucas Empirical evidence of the effects of COVID-19 on voter turnout 181 Miguel Vázquez-Carrero, Joaquín Artés, Carmen García and Juan Luis Jiménez 1 Covid Economics Issue 50, 25 September 2020 Editor's foreword Issue 50: Where do we stand? Charles Wyplosz, Editor of Covid Economics Issue 1 came out on 3 April 2020. Six months later, with Issue 50, Covid Economics has received 726 submissions, 332 of which have been accepted. Submissions have come from all five continents – a fitting reminder of the worldwide reach of the pandemic, but also an optimistic indication that economists have worked hard at trying to contribute to the global efforts to mitigate its impact. Until the outbreak, the field of the economics of pandemics was very limited. The 50 issues of Covid Economics reveal the amazing progress achieved since then. It has built upon every area of specialisation, combining theory and empirics. Hopefully, our vetting of papers for immediate posting has contributed to this effort. The average time between submission and editorial decision has been 1.97 (standard deviation = 2.17) days. On average, it has taken 5.28 (standard deviation = 2.87) days from submission to publication. As expected, this research activity is now slowing down, as shown in the figure below. From the start, we decided that the frequency of publication would be endogenous to the number of papers accepted. At the peak, we posted three issues per week, featuring some 20 papers. We are now down to about one issue per week. Figure 1 Number of daily submissions (7-day moving average) 9 8 Covid Economics 50, 25 September 2020: 1-2 50, 25 September Covid Economics 7
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