Global Election Review 2019

GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019

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Global Election Forecast • APRIL 2019 GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019

Finland Andorra 14 April 7 April

Macedonia 21 April Spain 28 April

India Israel April-May 9 April

Benin Maldives 28 April 6 April

Solomon Islands 3 April

Indonesia 17 April

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Solomon Islands GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 LOW Risk

Date: 3 April Key Issues: Economic reform Specific Risks: Political

Political System: Constitutional Monarchy (Commonwealth) Public corruption Travel Election Type: Presidential and Legislative Foreign policy Main Political Factions: United Party (Peter Kenilorea Jr) Terrorism West Honiara (John Kwaita)

Civil Unrest

The Solomon Islands general election will take place on 3 April for 50 seats in the National Parliament. These will be the first ones since the conclusion of the Regional

Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI) in the summer of 2017, making it crucial in determining the path ahead. The lack of a well-defined and historically grounded

political party system means that a coalition is unlikely to be immediately established after the election date. One key element that will be determined by the outcome of these

elections is the diplomatic ties that the Solomon Islands historically have kept with Taiwan, in exchange for significant economic contributions. In fact, due to increasing

exports to China, overshadowing the economic potential of maintaining a relationship with Taipei that grants little long-term growth prospects, the candidates running up to

the election are considering the possibility of severing the diplomatic ties. Moreover, the financial aid that goes directly to the government in Honiara has sparked criticism,

as it allows government officials to invest money without any supervision and is seen as favouring public corruption and fraud.

Although localised violence is a possibility, political unrest and election-based violence are considered low. Police, Maritime Authority and Australian Defence Force will be

deployed to provide safety and assistance during the election process. Maritime travel is likely to be affected during the election date due to voter’s movements.

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Maldives GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 LOW Risk

Date: 6 April Key Issues: Human rights Specific Risks: Political

Political System: Presidential Representative Democracy Foreign policy and Travel Election Type: Legislative geopolitical affiliation

Main Political Factions: Maldivian Democratic Party Public corruption Terrorism Jumohooeww Party Economic reform Progressive Party of Maldives Civil Unrest

Parliamentary elections in the Maldives will be held to choose the 87 members of the People’s Majlis.

The Presidential election of 2018 represented a central moment in the recent political history of the Maldives, the main opposition candidate Ibrahim Mohamed Solih defeated the then incumbent, President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, bringing in a government that pledged to improve the human rights and implement judicial reform. This is contrasted with the Yameen presidency where a state of emergency was declared that suspended constitutional protection and granted the security forces powers to make indiscriminate arrests. Both were used for political and judicial persecution, including attempts to prevent the opposition from running, as well as for widespread arrests. However, following the establishment of this new government, the human and political rights situation has greatly improved. The upcoming elections also have great geopolitical significance, as the main political factions have opposing stances on the international alignment of the islands, which is currently contested between China and India due to the islands’ strategic location in the Indian Ocean and vicinity to the UK/US Diego Garcia military base. The Yameen presidency historically sided with Beijing, but the new president campaigned on a platform favouring New Delhi, prompting Indian Prime Minister Modi to fly to Malé to attend the inauguration ceremony. However, a complete diplomatic U-turn is unlikely, as China holds the majority of the Maldives’ public debt and it represents the largest source of investment, whose conditions still apply to the new government.

While internal acts of terrorism are considered unlikely, the Maldives is officially an Islamic country and is seeing a significant level of radicalisation (especially when compared to the country’s population) with approximately 200 individuals joining the IS caliphate. Although recent political rifts present a threat the ruling coalition, the risk of civil unrest remains moderately low, especially when compared with the widespread political repression exercised during the authoritarian-like rule of President Yameen.

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Andorra GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019

NEGLIGIBLE Risk

Date: 7 April Key Issues: Taxation and economic Specific Risks: Political reform Political System: Parliamentary co-principality Travel Election Type: Legislative Relations with the EU

Main Political Factions: Democrats for Andorra Terrorism Liberals of Andorra Social Democratic Party Civil Unrest Social Democratic and Progress Third Way Sovereign Andorra United for the Progress of Andorra

Voters will elect 28 members of the General Council, Andorra’s unicameral parliament, for a four-year term. Fourteen MPs are elected from a single national constituency

under a proportional, closed-list system, while 2 members are elected from each of the seven municipalities through a majoritarian system. The list that receives a majority

of votes wins all seats in the constituency. Andorra is in the process of restructuring its antiquated political system; however, there are no indicators of instability. The position

of the French President as co-prince of Andorra is a stabilizing factor.

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GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 Israel

MODERATE

Risk

Date: 9 April Key Issues: Relations with Hamas Specific Risks: Political Political System: Parliamentary Democracy Public corruption

Election Type: Legislative Defence issues Travel Main Political Factions: A total of 47 parties are competing Peace with Palestine for seats in the Knesset, often running in joint electoral lists. Terrorism The current largest: Iran nuclear status

• Likud Party (leader: President Benjamin Netanyahu) Civil Unrest • Blue and White: Israel Resilience, Yesh Atid, Telem (leaders: Benny Ganz and Yair Lapid) • Joint List: Balad, Hadash, Ta’al, United Arab List

These elections have great political significance, as they will determine whether the sitting Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has been in power since 2009, will be granted a fifth term in office. Netanyahu is currently in the midst a legal battle against bribery, fraud and breach of public trust charges and is expected to be indicted ahead of the election date. Despite the charges, the prime minister is seen positively by many in the country and is running on a popular platform favouring hard-line solutions to deal with the Palestinian terrorism and unrest, as well as free-market economic solutions. Recent rocket strikes from Gaza, including one hitting a residential area north of Tel Aviv, are likely to reinforce support for his re-election. The main competitor is Israeli Defense Force Chief of General Staff Benjamin Gantz, scoring 33 percent against Netanyahu’s 45 percent, highlighting the centrality of defence priorities in directing electoral votes. The Blue and White coalition, which Gantz leads, represents the first realistic political threat faced by the incumbent President.

In terms of in-country security, it is likely that rocket strikes and provocation from Hamas in Gaza will continue or even increase in the run-up to the election. Politically driven civil unrest and demonstrations are also possible in main urban centres. Terrorism targeting election polls is also possible, but unlikely.

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Finland GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 LOW Risk

Date: 14 April Key Issues: Health and social Specific Risks: Political care Political System: Parliamentary Representative Democracy Travel Election Type: Legislative Immigration policy

Main Political Factions: The current three-party coalition is composed of: Environmental policy Terrorism Centre Party Civil Unrest Finns Party

National Coalition Party

On 14 April, voters will choose a new parliament and government, with 200 MPs to be elected. At present, the three-party government coalition is led by Prime Minister Juha

Sipilä's Centre Party with the National Coalition Party (NCP) and the Blue Reform party also holding positions in the cabinet; these control 104 of the 200 seats in the

parliament. The main issue faced by candidates is related to the controversial and unfinished reform of health and social care. Specifically, due to recent investigations on

poor standards at care homes, health care is a priority in the political agenda. Immigration and climate change are further key areas of debate.

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GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 Indonesia

MODERATE

Risk

Date: 17 April Key Issues: Economic reform

Political System: Presidential Constitutional Republic Weak Currency Specific Risks: Political

Election Type: Presidential and Legislative Public corruption Travel Main Political Factions: There are two main coalition: Religious issues

• Majority coalition formed by PDI–P, Golkar, PPP, Terrorist threat Terrorism Hanura, NasDem, PKB (Candidate: Joko “Jokowi” Widodo) Civil Unrest • Minority coalition formed by Gerindra, PKS, PAN,

Demokrat (Candidate: Prabowo Subianto)

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GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 North Macedonia

MODERATE

Risk

Date: 21 April – 5 May Key Issues: Name agreement

Political System: Parliamentary Representative Democratic Admission to NATO and Specific Risks: Political Republic EU Travel Election Type: Presidential Economic reforms

Main Political Factions: Macedonia has a multi-party system. Unemployment and Terrorism Parties work with each other to form coalition governments. poverty Major parties include: Civil Unrest • Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity Name change

• Social Democratic Union of Macedonia Membership to NATO • Democratic Union for Integration

• Democratic Party of Albanians

North Macedonia will hold its presidential election on 21 April. Incumbent President George Ivanov will not run for re-election, as the constitution only allows for two five-year mandates. If there is a run-off, a second round of voting will take place on 5 May. The country is seeing a key year in 2019; with an official name change to North Macedonia after reaching an agreement with Greece. In resolving this heavily contentious issue, the country has lifted the longstanding Greek blockade to Macedonia’s access to NATO. In relation to this, February and March saw numerous protests staged across North Macedonia over the name change. Police resorted to the use of tear gas in order to disperse crowds.

Additionally, in the past few years North Macedonia has been experiencing great politically-driven civil unrest, triggered by severe allegations against former Prime Minister

Nikola Gruevski over a wiretapping and corruption scandal. In 2016, President Ivanov’s attempt to stop investigations against the wiretapping allegations sparked

nationwide protests, initiating a de facto political crisis. Unrest is likely in the run-up to the elections and possible in its aftermath.

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GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 Benin

MODERATE

Risk

Date: 28 April Political System: Presidential Representative Democratic Key Issues: Economic reform Specific Risks: Political

Republic Unemployment Travel Election Type: Legislative Constitutional reform

Main Political Factions: Coalition lists: Corruption Terrorism • Progressive Union • Cowry Forces for Emerging Benin Civil Unrest

Due to changes in Benin’s electoral rules, only two parties have met the new requirements to file candidates for this election, both backing the current President Patrice

Talon. President Talon has described the exclusion of the opposition from next month’s elections as “unfortunate”, although the revision essentially excludes any form of

political opposition from taking part in the elections. This led to several of the President’s critics to accuse him of being disingenuous, as the rule changes are having their

intended effect of allowing Talon to consolidate power while undermining his rivals. Notably, the elections in 2015 saw widespread politically-driven unrest due to an attempt

by the former president, Thomas Boni Yayi to revise the constitution in order to lift the two-term limit to the presidency. Subsequently, incumbent President Talon decided to

delay the political reform promised during his campaign, reportedly due to its excessive cost.

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Spain GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 LOW Risk

Date: 28 April – 26 May Key Issues: Catalan independence Specific Risks: Political movement Political System: Constitutional Monarchy Travel Election Type: General Elections EU affairs

Main Political Factions: Socialist Party (PSOE) Uneven economic Terrorism People’s Party (PP) recovery Unidos Podemos Unemployment Civil Unrest Ciudadanos

Vax

In 2019, Spain will appoint its local, regional, national and European leaders, with elections on both 28 April and 26 May. All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies will be up for election, as well as 208 of 266 seats in the Senate. The election was called by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez after less than a year since his inauguration due to the repeated rejections of its yearly budget by the Parliament, marking it the third election in four years and highlighting the apparently unsolvable political crisis currently faced by Spain. Catalan separatists joined the opposition forces in sabotaging the 2019 budget due to his refusal to negotiate options for Catalonia’s independence, already a deeply dividing issue in the country. The ever-shifting political stances among Spain’s multiparty system and a fragmented electorate makes it virtually impossible for the leading party to form a strong majority, perpetuating the chronic instability in the government. For years, in fact, the power has been held by main traditional parties, such as the Socialist and the Popular Party, which historically governed alone or with smaller parties, generally avoiding a bipartisan coalition. However, the recent fragmentation in Spanish politics has sparked the emergence of smaller political factions, such as the centrists Ciudadanos, Unidos Podemos and the right-wing Vox. This division in the electoral support has made it impossible for the main political forces to gain a definitive majority in the elections and the radicalisation of the smaller political parties also contributed in making the coalition more volatile.

Currently polls suggest that the majority of voters still tend to trust traditional parties, with Sanchez’s Socialist Party leading the polls with 28 percent against the People’s Party with 21 percent and Ciudadanos with 15 percent, also indicating that the political standstill is likely to carry over and that a new coalition is likely to be hard to establish.

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GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 India

MODERATE

Risk

Date: April - May Key Issues: Economic reform Specific Risks: Political

Political System: Federal Parliamentary Democratic Republic Rural and urban divide Travel Election Type: General Elections & Legislative Unemployment

Main Political Factions: Relationship with Terrorism Pakistan • Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) • Indian National Congress (INC) Civil Unrest

• Numerous regional parties

Indians will go to the polls in seven phases between 11 April and 19 May to constitute the 17th Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament). The country is considered the world’s largest democracy, with over 850 million voters eligible to take part in the election. The seven phases are required due to the vast number of people in India and its large size; resulting in the election taking more than a month to complete. All 543 members of the Lok Sabha will be elected using a first-past-the-post system. Single political parties rarely form majority governments in India and group themselves into alliances usually based on their broad position on the left-right spectrum. In addition to the general election, legislative assembly elections in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Sikkim will also be held simultaneously with the states’ general election votes. The sitting Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was expected to win by a landslide until the legislative elections in November and December saw the BJP lose control of Chhattisgarh, Madhya and Rajasthan states. Nationwide issues such as the job crisis, falling wages and increasing hardship experienced by the farmer population are also contributing factors in damaging Modi’s popularity and sparking protests demanding government aid.

Modi’s main opposition comes from the centre-left Indian National Congress (INC) and its leader, Rahul Gandhi, who is the latest offering from one of India’s most prominent political dynasties. The INC’s anti-Modi rhetoric saw it gain ground from the BJP in key states in the legislative elections of 2018; a rhetoric Gandhi has continued for the general elections. Additionally, Gandhi’s message has been one of economic regeneration and a promise to undo some of Modi’s more controversial policies, which he claims have led to a surge in mob violence in India.

Although elections in India can be disruptive and complex, unrest and demonstrations do not routinely turn violent. The recent conflict with Pakistan has the potential to further Contact: +44 (0)1202 795 801 SOLACEGLOBAL.COM Email:complicate [email protected] the process; however, with the tensions easing, it is unlikely for the situation to impact the election process.

GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 Mali

HIGH Risk

Date: April Delayed

Political System: Semi-Presidential Representative Key Issues: Terrorist threat Specific Risks: Political

Democratic Republic Human rights Travel Election Type: Legislative Corruption

Main Political Factions: Main parliamentary party lists: Economic development Terrorism • Hope 2002 Tribal conflict • Alliance for Democracy in Mali Civil Unrest • Convergence for Alternance and Change • African Solidarity for Democracy and Independence

Mali’s legislative elections have been postponed twice to allow for additional time to better organise the election process and ease ongoing political tensions. Legislative

elections remain highly tribalistic throughout Mali with local politicians elected to power often supporting local infrastructure and job creation for their specific communities. In

August 2018, Mali held presidential elections, characterised by militant attacks and claims of corruption and irregularities by the opposition, which is still contesting the victory

of the incumbent President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita. The election and its aftermath saw internet shutdowns as an attempt to disrupt civil unrest.

All travellers in Mali during the elections should carefully monitor the process due to the high risk of unrest and terrorism. In fact, during the presidential elections, several

voting polls were forced to shut down due to jihadist threats. In the past four years, terrorist attacks and violent death rates have almost tripled, the most recent of which saw

over a hundred people killed in Ogossagou on 24 March.

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GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 Algeria

MODERATE

Risk

Date: 18 April Delayed Key Issues: Youth unemployment Specific Risks: Political Political System: Unitary Semi-Presidential People's Republic

Terrorist threat Election Type: Presidential Travel Economic reform Main Political Factions: The Algerian military has a significant say in the country’s politics. Political reform Terrorism • National Liberation Front (Principal nationalist movement during the Independence war) • National Rally for Democracy Civil Unrest • Green Algeria Alliance (alliance of Islamist parties)

• Number of other smaller lesser parties that may gain significance following the resignation of Bouteflika

President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s announcement to stand for re-election, seeking a fifth term, immediately triggered civil unrest throughout Algeria. On 29 March, the protesters in the country were reported to be in the hundreds of thousands in the largest demonstration in its modern history, with people demanding immediate elections and the resignation of the ailing president. The intensity of the protests pushed Bouteflika to make some concessions in an attempt to appease the population, including his decision to withdraw from the electoral race, whilst also delaying the elections indefinitely, effectively cancelling them. This was perceived as an attempt to cling on to power, with opposition leaders and protesters denouncing the move as an unconstitutional attempt to extend his fourth term in office that is set to expire on 28 April. However, on 2 April, the president officially announced his resignation, which resulted in mass celebration in the streets throughout the country. As of now, it remains unclear when or if an election will be rescheduled: conventions state that when a president dies or resigns, the Constitutional Council confirms the leader's absence and both houses of parliament convene. The president of the upper house Abdelkader Bensalah would then be named as interim leader for 90 days while a presidential election is organized. Many protesters have vowed to continue demonstrating against the country’s government and demanding reform until a way forward is presented, in fear of an attempt by the military forces or Bouteflika’s aids to take advantage of the power vacuum. While in the beginning of March Bouteflika’s inner circle, known as the puvoir or “the power”, and most of the military backed the president, an increasing number of officials have gradually started turning and called for a “transition” period in Alegria. Chief among these is General Gaid Salah, head of the military, who recently called for the Constitutional Council to set in motion a process to end Bouteflika’s presidency.

The delayed elections will be central in determining how the power vacuum created by the longstanding president’s resignation will be filled and, ultimately, the way forward for Algeria. Due to the president’s ill-health since his stroke in April 2013, many of those in the president’s inner circle (an inner circle whose composition is relatively unknown) have governed the country in his stead. This inner circle is likely to now be looking to ensure that the replacement president does not harm their interests while some factions Contact: +44 (0)1202 795 801 SOLACEGLOBAL.COM Email: may,[email protected] perhaps, be looking to increase their influence. There is also the risk of a Muslim Brotherhood-like Islamist group or a strongman using this opportunity to take control. Additionally, there are fears that the country’s security situation deteriorates should unrest continue.

GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 Global Election Outcome • MARCH 2019

Estonia 3 March

Ukraine 31 March/ Slovakia 21 April 16/30 March

DPRK Turkey 10 March 31 March

Guinea-Bissau 10 March Micronesia 5 March

Thailand 25 March

Burkina Faso 24 March CANCELLED Comoros 24 March

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A Look Back at the Past GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019

Location Date Political System Election Type Main Political Factions President/Prime Minister Turnout Risk Level

Estonia 3 March Parliamentary Legislative • Reform Party 28% Undecided / Coalition Talks 63% LOW Democracy • Centre Party 23% ongoing • Conservative People’s Party 18 %

• Pro Patria 11% • Social Democratic 10% • Other 10%

The legislative elections concluded on 3 March 2019, saw a victory of the centre-right Reform Party that defeated the Centre Party currently in government with 34 against 26

of the seats in the Riigikogu. The biggest gains, however, were seen by the far-right Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE), with a total of 19 of the 101 parliamentary seats. While preliminary coalition talks are taking place in Tallinn, it seems increasingly unlikely that the overall winner of the election and its candidate, Kaja Kallas, will lead the new government and become the first female Prime Minister of Estonia. In fact, the Centre, EKRE and Pro Patria, holding 12 seats, will most likely form a government coalition that will be led by Jüri Ratas, leader of Centre and current Estonian Prime Minister. While priorities such as support to the European Union and NATO won’t be affected March 2019 by either coalition, the political presence of far-right party elements will most likely alter the policy-making of a centrist government. Its leader, Mart Helme, has already expressed strong nationalist and anti-European sentiments that granted him the support of the rural working-class population, which shares a frustration against what it perceives as an elitist central government.

One of the key issues of contention in Estonia remains the relationship with Russia, which is perceived as a threatening neighbour and is characterized by historical grievances. Due to its sizable ethnic Russian population, this topic has ramifications that stretch beyond security into the socio-economic realm, particularly when it comes to the teaching of the Russian language in schools, which was mandatory during the Soviet Union era and is often regarded as a reminder of its oppression. This urge to preserve the Estonian ethnicity from foreign invasion greatly resonates with the campaigning of the far-right parties, which advocate a nationalist anti-immigration stance.

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GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019

Micronesia 5 March Federal Legislative The voting occurs directly on candidates with election districts N/A - LOW Representative determined by island: Chuuk, Kosrae, Pohnpei, Yap. Democratic Republic

The election was successfully held on 5 March in the Federal States of Micronesia assigned 14 seats in the Congress, which holds legislative powers and appoints President and Vice President. The incumbent President Peter Christian lost his seat for just under 50 votes to his competitor David Panuelo. The referendum on the independence of Chuuk State was postponed, while the referendum on calling a Constitutional Convention won with 60 percent of the votes.

Guinea 10 March Semi-Presidential Legislative • African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde Undecided / Coalition Talks 74% LOW Representative 35% ongoing Bissau Democratic Republic • Party for Social Renewal 21% • Movement for a Democratic Alternative 21%

• Assemble of the People United 8% • Other 15%

Legislative elections for the National People’s Assembly were held in March after being postponed several times since their first scheduled date in November 2018. The election was, in fact, delayed by President José Mário Vaz until he managed to secure international support. The ruling Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde, also known as PAIGC, won 47 of the 102 of the National Popular Assembly seats, just short of an absolute majority. It was followed by the main opposition party and the Movement for a Democratic Alternative (Madem G-15), which was formed by 15 former members of PAIGC who left the party in 2018. A coalition is being built with three other minor movements in order to establish a government, as the other two main parties are both considered opposition factions. Citizens were celebrating in the streets in the hope that this will bring the current political paralysis within Guinea Bissau to an end. In fact, the political crisis started in 2015 with the decision by President Vaz to dissolve the government of Prime Minister Domingos Simões Pereira due to corruption allegations related to international funding for economic reforms. This started a cycle of political instability, as the feud between the two caused a fracture in the ruling party and made it impossible to form a strong government. Five different Prime Ministers tried and failed to maintain power in the past four years. The UN declared this election process peaceful, free and fair, and no violent unrest was experienced, although that might change if the coalition does not succeed in establishing a stable government. The standstill between the main ruling powers in the nation has completely brought to a halt all reform initiatives, which are widely expected to resume under a new leadership. Failure to do so is likely to push the population to voice its frustration.

10 March Democratic Republic Legislative The parties listed below are all part of the coalition Democratic Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un 99% LOW Front for the Reunification of the Fatherland:

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GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019

Democratic • Workers’ Party of Korea 88 % • Korean Social Democratic Party 7%

People’s • Chondoist Chongu Party 3% Republic of • Others 2% Korea The 14th election of the Supreme People’s Assembly was held on 10 March, with an almost universal turnout of 99.99%. The Assembly consists of 687 deputies, which are elected for a five-year term. Although the Assembly is formally the main legislative organ of the DPRK, it routinely delegates decision-making authority to a Presidium selected among its members. Officially the DPRK counts three major parties, which belong to a democratic coalition and are de facto a single political entity. Internationally, the election is condemned by many, which see the process as a mediatic and political legitimisation effort and an attempt to portray North Korea as a country responding to democratic standards and costumes. Reportedly, North Korean authorities use the voting process to monitor the population and identify those who might have defected, as voting is mandatory for everyone above the age of 17. Notably, this year’s vote allowed Kim Jong-un’s sister, Kim To-jong, to be elected to Parliament. During recent years, Ms Kim has experienced a rise in visibility, becoming her brother’s aid and accompanying him on foreign travels.

Slovakia 16 & 30 March Parliamentary Presidential • Progressive Slovakia (candidate: Zuzana Čaputová) President: Zuzana Čaputová 42% LOW Representative • Smer-SD (candidate: Maros Sefcovic) Prime Minister: Peter Pellegrini Democratic Republic • Most–Híd (candidate: Béla Bugár) • Independent candidate: Štefan Harabin

Elections for the presidency of Slovakia took place with the incumbent, President Andrej Kiska, not running for a second term. None of the candidates achieved an absolute majority after the first round of the election on 16 March; after the second round held on 30 March, Zuzana Čaputová achieved victory with 58% of the votes. The presidency although being largely ceremonial, the President retains the power to pick the Prime Minister, appoint Constitutional Court judges and veto laws. However, these elections were central in determining Slovakia’s stance towards key issues that have fuelled the success of several far-right movements throughout Europe, including the future of the European Union itself. The campaigning was, in fact, a true ideological battle between, Maros Sefcovic, running on an anti-immigration, conservative platform advocating the importance of Christian values, and Zuzana Čaputová, promoting a pro-Europe liberal agenda. Čaputová, now the first female Slovakian President, has also gained supporters through her participation in several anti-government demonstrations started on February 2018, which were sparked by the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak, driving former Prime Minister Fico to resign. Her image as a lawyer with a history of defending civil rights against political and economic interest groups allowed her to gain the trust of an electorate frustrated by the perception of public corruption and government fraud that is widespread in Slovakia.

24 March Semi-Presidential Constitutional N/A N/A N/A MODERATE CANCELLED Republic Referendum

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GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019

Burkina In line with electoral promises made in the 2015 presidential elections, current incumbent Marc Kabore was supposed to hold a referendum asking the public to vote on constitutional changes that will limit Presidents to a maximum two terms (ten years). The constitution also formalises key civil rights such as clean water and housing, civil Faso disobedience as well as the outlawing of the death penalty. The government had previously attempted to ratify the draft through the National Assembly; however, efforts were frustrated by the opposition. The cancellation should not be viewed as a governmental failure, as the President had never officially confirmed the date, which was actually announced by media outlets. The referendum is still expected to be held before 2020. While the new Constitution widely draws consensus amongst Burkinabe people, the rise of terrorist activity in the north and east of the country means the vote could become a target for attacks.

Union of the 24 March Federal Presidential Presidential • Convention for the Renewal of the Comoros (candidate: Azali President Azali Assoumani - HIGH Republic Assoumani) 60% (incumbent) Comoros • Independent (candidate: Mahamoud Ahamada) 14% • Independent (candidate: Mouigni Baraka Saïd Soilihi) 5% • Independent (candidate: Mohamed Soilihi) 4% • Other 7%

The election process was already seen by many as flawed and, ultimately, an attempt by ruling President Assoumani to legitimise his power at least until 2023. These accusations were initiated by a highly controversial constitutional referendum held in 2018 that caused civil unrest to erupt in the entire archipelago, as it introduced a political system that removed limits to the number of presidential terms and caused the presidency to no longer be rotated among the three main islands. Following a surprising approval of 92 percent of the voters, many expressed concerns over the legitimacy of the referendum and accused Assoumani of imposing unfair regulations and fostering political instability in a presidential power grab. The elections held on 24 March saw the incumbent run for a second term, amidst accusation of intimidating the opposition forces, notably Mohamed Ali Soilihi, against which he narrowly won the previous election, held in May 2016. The voting, contested by opposition forces, saw the incumbent’s victory with over 50 percent of the votes, allowing him to avoid a second round against a single opponent, which would have presented a higher threat compared to a vote split among 12 opposition candidates. In the aftermath of the announcement of the results, the opposition forces led by Mohamed Soilihi, called for the initiation of a civil disobedience campaign that caused him to be arrested. Several arrests and violence erupting around roadblocks have been reported, prompting the US to evacuate all its diplomatic personnel from the country. On 3 March, the United Nations Secretary General officially expressed concern over the reports of violence, politically-motivated unrest and restriction of the media in the Comoros.

Thailand 25 March Constitutional Legislative • Pheu Thai (candidate: Sudarat Keyuraphan) 21% Undecided / Coalition Talks 64% MODERATE Monarchy • Palang Pracharath (candidate: Prayut Chan-o-cha, current ongoing Prime Minister and junta leader) 23%

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GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019

• Future Forward (candidate: Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit) 17% • Democrat Party (candidate: Abhisit Vejjajiva) 10% • Bhumjaithai (candidate: Anuthin Charnvirakul) 10% • Other 19%

The Thai populous went to the polls on 25 March for the first democratic elections since a military coup d’état in May 2014. Political campaigning, which started in December after a partial reinstitution of political rights, followed historical divides between populism and military-backed conservativism. However, both the political confrontation and the electoral process was stained by a public perception of injustice and manipulation by the ruling military junta, which was responsible for delaying the election almost every year since the coup d’état; sparking protests in Bangkok and other major cities in the country. Moreover, the Thai Raksa Chart, a newly formed party associated with the exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, was dissolved and barred from the election due to its attempt to nominate Princess Ubolratana Rajakanya Sirivadhana Barnavadi as their main candidate. The candidacy was also condemned by the Thai monarch, despite the princess having renounced her royal status. Moreover, a constitutional reform put forth by the ruling military junta led by Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha in 2017, heavily skewed the political system in their favour, reserving the right to nominate all Senate members and ensuring permanent influence of the military powers on the government even in case of a victory of the opposition. In fact, the opposition movements associated with the exiled Prime Minister have won all democratic elections since 2001, establishing governments that were overthrown by military coups shortly after. The fear of another cycle of violence and instability was probably the driving motivation to introduce the new constitution, especially with the junta claiming to be the only way to ensure peace and security in Thailand. While the voting was held as scheduled on 25 March, suspicions were raised by the Electoral Commission’s (EC) decision to delay the announcement of the results, which ultimately found that the pro-military Palang Pracharath party had won the popular vote against all odds. Another surprising result is the success of the Future Forward party, formed only a year ago and led by entrepreneur Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, who won most of the votes of the young generation, promising modernisation and the transition towards a welfare state. Pheu Thai is currently looking to form a coalition with Future Forward and other minor opposition parties, in order to be able to form a government, but its efforts are likely to be frustrated due to the fact that a Prime Minister needs to be elected through a combined vote of both Houses. This highlights the impact of the constitutional changes of 2017, which are leading the ruling junta to try to maintain hold of the prime ministership. If successful, the confrontation between the coalition and the incumbent government will most likely produce a political standstill and escalate tensions that might ultimately lead to another military intervention, compromising the democratisation process. The combination of factors has led to a popular feeling of the election ultimately being democratically flawed and left both locals and the international community questioning the actual progress achieved towards a real democracy.

Ukraine 31 March – 21 Semi-Presidential Presidential Parties and main presidential candidates: • Relationship with Russia 63% MODERATE April Representative • Servant of the People (Volodymyr Zelensky) 30% • Relationship with the EU ONGOING Democratic Republic • Independent candidate (Incumbent President: Petro • Public corruption

Poroshenko) 16% • Internal political and economic • Fatherland (Yulia Tymoshenko) 13% crisis due to the conflict • Independent candidate (Yuriy Boyko) 11%

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GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019

• Civil Position (Anatoliy Hrysenko) 7%

Ukraine held its first round of Presidential elections on 31 March, placing comedian Volodymyr Zelensky sizably ahead of incumbent President Petro Poroshenko. The vote is considered key in determining the way forward of a country currently engaged in conflict and reliant of IMF bailout to keep its economy afloat. The two will face each other in the next round of voting on 21 April, but the victory of Zelensky at that stage is not an absolute certainty. In fact, the position of Ukraine on the border with Russia and the ongoing conflict with Russian separatists might lead the polls to rely on a candidate that can offer stronger reassurances when it comes to defence issues. His conservative platform grounded in the Orthodox religious values and the prominence of Ukrainian ethnicity and language is still supported by many. Poroshenko’s reputation, however, recently suffered a strong blow due to its involvement in a fraud scandal involving defence spending. While corruption is not uncommon in Ukrainian politics, in the context of the sizable increase in the defence budget to edge against Russian aggression, corruption allegations are perceived almost as treason. Zelensky, on the other hand, has admitted to his political inexperience that, coupled with his satirical portrayal of the oligarchy, allowed him to gain a degree of public trust. Moreover, his willingness to openly speak both Ukrainian and Russian has won him the support of the Russian population living and voting in Ukraine.

Turkey 31 March Presidential Republic Local • Justice and Development Party N/A 84% LOW • Republican People’s Party • People’s Democratic Party

• Nationalist Movement Party

On 31 March local elections were held throughout Turkey’s 81 provinces, confirming an overall majority for the Justice and Development Party (AKP), but also leading to incredible gains for the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP). The ruling AKP has lost the three major cities in the country: Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir, in a major political setback for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Despite not running directly in the elections, he did campaign for the AKP extensively, and the municipal voting was perceived as a key tool to measure his approval country-wide, which seem to have significantly decreased. The loss of Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city and birthplace of Erdoğan’s political career, carries great meaning for a ruling president that has won every election since he came to power 17 years ago. In the context of growing economic stagnation, weaker currency and growing unemployment, the Turkish population showed support to an opposition alliance that addressed these challenges directly, rather than focusing mainly on the foreign policy and defence issues that are central in President Erdoğan campaign and government. An aspect displayed following the failed coup d’état in 2016, when support for Erdoğan and his nationalist platform greatly resonated with the Turkish population. This was translated into votes during the 2018 Presidential elections, which saw the president win with 52 percent of the votes in the first round of voting. From a security standpoint, the election process was relatively calm. Security measures were increased nation-wide, with the deployment of an additional 6,680 security personnel in 11 provinces and 12 districts.

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GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019

Contact: +44 (0)1202 795 801 SOLACEGLOBAL.COM Email: [email protected]