GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 Global Election Review 2019 Contact: +44 (0)1202 795 801 SOLACEGLOBAL.COM Email: [email protected] Global Election Forecast • APRIL 2019 GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 Finland Andorra 14 April 7 April Macedonia 21 April Spain 28 April India Israel April-May 9 April Benin Maldives 28 April 6 April Solomon Islands 3 April Indonesia 17 April Contact: +44 (0)1202 795 801 SOLACEGLOBAL.COM Email: [email protected] Solomon Islands GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 LOW Risk Date: 3 April Key Issues: Economic reform Specific Risks: Political Political System: Constitutional Monarchy (Commonwealth) Public corruption Travel Election Type: Presidential and Legislative Foreign policy Main Political Factions: United Party (Peter Kenilorea Jr) Terrorism West Honiara (John Kwaita) Civil Unrest The Solomon Islands general election will take place on 3 April for 50 seats in the National Parliament. These will be the first ones since the conclusion of the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI) in the summer of 2017, making it crucial in determining the path ahead. The lack of a well-defined and historically grounded political party system means that a coalition is unlikely to be immediately established after the election date. One key element that will be determined by the outcome of these elections is the diplomatic ties that the Solomon Islands historically have kept with Taiwan, in exchange for significant economic contributions. In fact, due to increasing exports to China, overshadowing the economic potential of maintaining a relationship with Taipei that grants little long-term growth prospects, the candidates running up to the election are considering the possibility of severing the diplomatic ties. Moreover, the financial aid that goes directly to the government in Honiara has sparked criticism, as it allows government officials to invest money without any supervision and is seen as favouring public corruption and fraud. Although localised violence is a possibility, political unrest and election-based violence are considered low. Police, Maritime Authority and Australian Defence Force will be deployed to provide safety and assistance during the election process. Maritime travel is likely to be affected during the election date due to voter’s movements. Contact: +44 (0)1202 795 801 SOLACEGLOBAL.COM Email: [email protected] Maldives GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 LOW Risk Date: 6 April Key Issues: Human rights Specific Risks: Political Political System: Presidential Representative Democracy Foreign policy and Travel Election Type: Legislative geopolitical affiliation Main Political Factions: Maldivian Democratic Party Public corruption Terrorism Jumohooeww Party Economic reform Progressive Party of Maldives Civil Unrest Parliamentary elections in the Maldives will be held to choose the 87 members of the People’s Majlis. The Presidential election of 2018 represented a central moment in the recent political history of the Maldives, the main opposition candidate Ibrahim Mohamed Solih defeated the then incumbent, President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, bringing in a government that pledged to improve the human rights and implement judicial reform. This is contrasted with the Yameen presidency where a state of emergency was declared that suspended constitutional protection and granted the security forces powers to make indiscriminate arrests. Both were used for political and judicial persecution, including attempts to prevent the opposition from running, as well as for widespread arrests. However, following the establishment of this new government, the human and political rights situation has greatly improved. The upcoming elections also have great geopolitical significance, as the main political factions have opposing stances on the international alignment of the islands, which is currently contested between China and India due to the islands’ strategic location in the Indian Ocean and vicinity to the UK/US Diego Garcia military base. The Yameen presidency historically sided with Beijing, but the new president campaigned on a platform favouring New Delhi, prompting Indian Prime Minister Modi to fly to Malé to attend the inauguration ceremony. However, a complete diplomatic U-turn is unlikely, as China holds the majority of the Maldives’ public debt and it represents the largest source of investment, whose conditions still apply to the new government. While internal acts of terrorism are considered unlikely, the Maldives is officially an Islamic country and is seeing a significant level of radicalisation (especially when compared to the country’s population) with approximately 200 individuals joining the IS caliphate. Although recent political rifts present a threat the ruling coalition, the risk of civil unrest remains moderately low, especially when compared with the widespread political repression exercised during the authoritarian-like rule of President Yameen. Contact: +4 4 (0)1202 795 801 SOLACEGLOBAL.COM Email: [email protected] Andorra GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 NEGLIGIBLE Risk Date: 7 April Key Issues: Taxation and economic Specific Risks: Political reform Political System: Parliamentary co-principality Travel Election Type: Legislative Relations with the EU Main Political Factions: Democrats for Andorra Terrorism Liberals of Andorra Social Democratic Party Civil Unrest Social Democratic and Progress Third Way Sovereign Andorra United for the Progress of Andorra Voters will elect 28 members of the General Council, Andorra’s unicameral parliament, for a four-year term. Fourteen MPs are elected from a single national constituency under a proportional, closed-list system, while 2 members are elected from each of the seven municipalities through a majoritarian system. The list that receives a majority of votes wins all seats in the constituency. Andorra is in the process of restructuring its antiquated political system; however, there are no indicators of instability. The position of the French President as co-prince of Andorra is a stabilizing factor. Contact: +44 (0)1202 795 801 SOLACEGLOBAL.COM Email: [email protected] GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 Israel MODERATE Risk Date: 9 April Key Issues: Relations with Hamas Specific Risks: Political Political System: Parliamentary Democracy Public corruption Election Type: Legislative Defence issues Travel Main Political Factions: A total of 47 parties are competing Peace with Palestine for seats in the Knesset, often running in joint electoral lists. Terrorism The current largest: Iran nuclear status • Likud Party (leader: President Benjamin Netanyahu) Civil Unrest • Blue and White: Israel Resilience, Yesh Atid, Telem (leaders: Benny Ganz and Yair Lapid) • Joint List: Balad, Hadash, Ta’al, United Arab List These elections have great political significance, as they will determine whether the sitting Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has been in power since 2009, will be granted a fifth term in office. Netanyahu is currently in the midst a legal battle against bribery, fraud and breach of public trust charges and is expected to be indicted ahead of the election date. Despite the charges, the prime minister is seen positively by many in the country and is running on a popular platform favouring hard-line solutions to deal with the Palestinian terrorism and unrest, as well as free-market economic solutions. Recent rocket strikes from Gaza, including one hitting a residential area north of Tel Aviv, are likely to reinforce support for his re-election. The main competitor is Israeli Defense Force Chief of General Staff Benjamin Gantz, scoring 33 percent against Netanyahu’s 45 percent, highlighting the centrality of defence priorities in directing electoral votes. The Blue and White coalition, which Gantz leads, represents the first realistic political threat faced by the incumbent President. In terms of in-country security, it is likely that rocket strikes and provocation from Hamas in Gaza will continue or even increase in the run-up to the election. Politically driven civil unrest and demonstrations are also possible in main urban centres. Terrorism targeting election polls is also possible, but unlikely. Contact: +44 (0)1202 795 801 SOLACEGLOBAL.COM Email: [email protected] Finland GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 LOW Risk Date: 14 April Key Issues: Health and social Specific Risks: Political care Political System: Parliamentary Representative Democracy Travel Election Type: Legislative Immigration policy Main Political Factions: The current three-party coalition is composed of: Environmental policy Terrorism Centre Party Civil Unrest Finns Party National Coalition Party On 14 April, voters will choose a new parliament and government, with 200 MPs to be elected. At present, the three-party government coalition is led by Prime Minister Juha Sipilä's Centre Party with the National Coalition Party (NCP) and the Blue Reform party also holding positions in the cabinet; these control 104 of the 200 seats in the parliament. The main issue faced by candidates is related to the controversial and unfinished reform of health and social care. Specifically, due to recent investigations on poor standards at care homes, health care is a priority in the political agenda. Immigration and climate change are further key areas of debate. Contact: +44 (0)1202 795 801 SOLACEGLOBAL.COM Email: [email protected] GLOBAL ELECTION REVIEW 2019 Indonesia MODERATE Risk Date: 17 April Key Issues: Economic reform Political