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Pdf | 954.12 Kb UNITED NATIONS NATIONS UNIES Office for the Coordination of Bureau de Coordination des Humanitarian Affairs Affaires Humanitaires Affected Populations in the Great Lakes Region (31 October 2004) P.O. Box 30218 Telephone: +254 20 622 166 Nairobi, Kenya Fax: +254 20 622 632 OCHA Regional Support Office for Central and Eastern Africa AFFECTED POPULATIONS SUMMARY TOTAL AFFECTED IDPs REFUGEES POPULATION CHANGES % COUNTRY (in figures) March October March October March October 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 2004 BURUNDI 281,638 145,033 40,971 35,000 322,609 180,033 -44.2 (-142,576) DRC 3,413,700 2,170,000 234,172 227,000 3,647,872 2,397,000 -34.3 (-,250,872) RWANDA 4,158 4,158 34,309 39,461 38,467 43,619 +13.4 (5,152) TANZANIA N/A N/A 467,306 410,429 467,306 410,429 -12.2 (-56,877) UGANDA 1,559,344 1,460,785 230,801 225,574 1,790,145 1,686,359 -5.8 (-103,786) TOTAL 5,258,840 3,779,976 1,007,559 937,464 6,266,399 4,717,440 -24.7 (-1,548,959) OCHA RSO-CEA is funded by the following donors BPRM 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The information presented in this document represents best estimates of the number of displaced, refugees and vulnerable populations throughout the Great Lakes Region. Sources of information include UN agencies, NGOs, the Red Cross family, central governments and local authorities. Internally displaced people are those who have been forced to move out of their residences and who are living dispersed in the bush, with host families or in other sites. The information is organised by country, location, category and national origin. The total population figures per country are taken from various sources, including national census reports and the 2003 UNDP Human Development Report. This report on the affected populations in the Great Lakes Region covers the period from March - when the last such report appeared - to the end of October 2004. The definition of the Great Lakes is based on a political rather than geographical rationale, including therefore those countries affected directly and indirectly by the major conflicts: Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Republic of Congo (RoC) Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda. Some 3.7 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) and close to 1 million refugees are now reported in the numbers for the region. This represents a 24.7% decrease from figures reported in March. This decrease - mostly in internally displaced - represents a positive development, as in Burundi, DRC and Uganda some internally displaced populations have been able to return to newly-secure areas and there has been significant repatriation to Burundi from Tanzania. However, such figures can be guidelines only as it remains difficult to estimate accurately the real numbers of internally displaced in areas of conflict where access is limited. In addition, repeated displacement and the temporarily displaced are not fully reflected in the overall figures. At the same time, continued conflict in certain areas, most notably Eastern DRC, still prompts further displacement and refugee outflows, and levels of vulnerability for populations in the region continue to rise. The Regional Overview that follows highlights the current political and security context in the region and the impact that this has upon its populations. Progress in the transitional processes in Burundi and DRC continues to offer hope to the region, yet their fragility and persistent insecurity in certain areas - as well as the regional repercussions in terms of political tensions, population movement, and a continued climate of fear and uncertainty - still pose threats to stability despite regional initiatives to encourage peace. While positive moves encourage return and reintegration, conflict still prompts internal displacement, refugee outflows and is a disincentive to repatriation. At the same time, human rights abuses continue - most notably sexual violence - and issues of governance, political freedom, and ethnic reconciliation pose challenges for the region. Conflict has impacted on the health and nutritional status of all populations - with children often being the most adversely affected, while poor social and economic infrastructure and climatic factors also affect the ability of populations to survive and prosper. In each of the country sections, the humanitarian situation is reviewed as well as the factors - often political and security-related - that influence this. In Burundi, attention is drawn in particular to the growing stability in areas of the country that has encouraged IDP and refugee return, while the threat to this of transitional uncertainty is recognised. The humanitarian situation in DRC remains of serious concern, as factional fighting in the east displaces populations and regional tensions persist. Rwanda has begun to tackle issues of reconciliation, judicial reform, land policy and socio-economic development, yet certain groups - such as detainees and those in inadequate shelter - remain of humanitarian concern, while Rwanda's tense relations with its neighbours may have serious consequences. Tanzania continues to host a high proportion of the region's refugees, but attitudes to this population may harden once again as elections approach. In Uganda, increased willingness on the part of the Government to engage in negotiation with the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) has been a very hopeful sign, but conditions for IDPs in the north remain critical and, even if future return becomes a reality, immediate needs remain as extensive as ever. As a new feature in this report, a 2 short entry has also be provided on the Republic of Congo in view of the current serious humanitarian situation in the Pool region, the possibility of further violence within the country, as well as the cross- border implications of a fragile transition in the DRC. Needs for affected populations throughout the region remain acute. By the end of November, some US$368,967,795 (67.5%) had been received of the amount requested (US$548,712,509) in the 2004 Inter-Agency Consolidated Appeals for the region, Burundi, DRC, Tanzania and Uganda. In November, the 2005 Inter-Agency Consolidated Appeals for 2005 were launched for the Great Lakes Region (regional appeal), Burundi, DRC, Republic of Congo and Uganda, requesting a total of US$601,536,926. 3 A REGIONAL OVERVIEW Regional Political and Security Context In his thought-provoking welcome statement on 19 November to the 11 Heads of State attending the first summit of the International Conference on the Great Lakes, President Benjamin Mkapa of Tanzania noted the recent Security Council recognition of positive progress in Africa - in peace processes to bring resolution to long-standing conflicts, in increased political stability and an emphasis on democratic elections. At the same time, he stated that 'Africa is undergoing change; but this change remains fragile and needs to be firmly anchored in solid ground for its expansion and sustainability.' This message is only too relevant for the Great Lakes region, where the 'fragility' to which he refers has been evident throughout the period under review despite considerable efforts - and some progress - to consolidate the achievements of peace processes and move forward. • Fragile Transitions In Burundi, the ceasefire between the Government and the CNDD-FDD has been consolidated, the demobilisation process is finally set to begin in earnest and a political power-sharing agreement was reached in Pretoria in August. Yet despite these positive developments, wrangling over the draft constitution, uncertainty over the timing of elections and the duration of the transitional period raised political temperatures and prompted fears for the future. The DRC has seen a no less fragile situation, where despite some real progress, delays in the full implementation of transitional arrangements and structures, friction over the establishment of military and political power-sharing agreements and tension and mistrust over the integration of the national army have all had repercussions for internal stability as power struggles are played out in fighting on the ground - particularly in the east. This was evidenced by the deterioration of the security situation around Bukavu in May as rival factions sought control of the town. In both Burundi and DRC, election timetables are 'markers' of the way forward. Yet delays in their implementation - whether resulting from political disagreements or the contextually-understandable serious administrative and logistic constraints - send worrying signals for populations concerned and increase uncertainty over the future. • Persistent Insecurity - and its Regional Repercussions As long as fighting continues in the eastern DRC, and the rebel militias of neighbours - most particularly of Rwanda and Uganda - are believed to shelter there, this area will remain, as in this period, a source of tension and a potential catalyst for renewed regional conflict. Similarly, the current inability of the Government to exert full sovereign control over this territory - and its abundant and valuable natural resources - proffers tempting opportunities for potential exploiters that may also undermine moves towards peace. In Burundi, continued conflict between the FNL and the forces of the Transitional Government not only results in the death and displacement of civilian, but poses an internal threat to stability and has regional repercussions. The August massacre of 152 Congolese - mostly Banyamulenge - refugees in the Gatumba site in Burundi impacted not only upon hopes for peace in Burundi and a resolution of conflict with this group, but the allegations of involvement by the militias of other countries also threatened regional relationships between Burundi, the DRC and Rwanda, as well as previous commitments to respect principles of sovereignty and non-intervention. The alleged presence of Uganda rebel groups - the ADF and PRA - in DRC is also cited by Uganda as an on-going security threat with the potential to prompt future intervention, while Rwanda has been far more vociferous about the perceived continued threat - and their potential response - from ex-FAR/interahamwe militia.
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