https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20110023222 2019-08-30T18:03:27+00:00Z Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report

30 September 2011 Fourth Quarter FY-11 Contract NNK06MA70C

Peak Wind Tool for Us Ph se IV Situational Lightning C for Central Florida, e V MesoNAM Verification, Phase II

Launch Support Dr. Bauman, Dr. Merceret and Dr. Huddleston supported the final launch of Shuttle Atlantis on 8 July. Dr. Bauman and Ms. Wilson supported the Delta IV launch on 16 July. Ms. Crawford and Dr. Merceret supported the Atlas V launch on 5 August. Mr. Wheeler and Dr. Huddle­ This Quarter's Highlights ston supported the Delta II launch on 10 September. The AMU Team completed work on all their tasks: • Dr. Watson completed the second phase of verifying the performance of the MesoNAM weather model at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). She deliv­ ered the data to the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and distributed the final report . • Dr. Bauman completed modifying and updating lightning c1imatologies for KSC/CCAFS and other airfields around central Florida. He delivered the tool to the National Weather Service in Melbourne and 45 WS and distributed the final report • Ms. Crawford completed modifying the AMU peak wind tool by analyzing wind tower data to deter­ mine peak wind behavior during times of onshore and offshore flow. She delivered the tool to the 45 WS and distributed the final report. • All of the above reports are available on the AMU website: http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/ The AMU Team was busy preparing for the end of the AMU contract on 30 September. The AMU func­ tions will continue under a six-month contract extension through 31 March 2012.

1980 N. Atlantic Ave., Suite 830 Cocoa Beach, FL 32931 (321) 783-9735, (321) 853-8203 (AMU) Quarterly Task Summaries

This section contains summaries ofthe AMU activities for the fourth quarter of Fiscal Year 2011 (July-September 2011). The accomplishments on each task are described in more detail in the body of the report starting on the page number next to the task name.

Peak Wind Tool for User LCC, Phase IV (Page 4)

Purpose: Recalculate the Phase III cool season peak wind statistics using onshore and offshore flow as an added stratification. Peak winds are an important forecast element for launch vehicles, but the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) indicates that they are challenging to forecast. The forecasters have noticed a difference in behavior of tower winds between onshore and offshore flow. Recalculating the statistics after stratifying by these flows could make them more ro­ bust and useful to operations.

Accomplished: Created the 2- and 4-hour prognostic peak wind speed probabilities for onshore and offshore flow. The graphical user interface (GUI) was modified to display the new statistics and deliv­ ered to the 45 WS for testing. The final report was completed and distributed.

Situational Lightning Climatologies for Central Florida, Phase V (Page 5)

Purpose: Update the existing lightning climatology to improve op­ erational weather support to Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), Patrick Air Force Base (PAFB), and commercial and general aviation across central Flori­ da. The update includes adding more years of data to the data­ base, adding more sites and adding stratifications for moisture and stability parameters. These updates will provide climatologies for new sites for which the 45 WS and National Weather Service (NWS) have forecast responsibility, and to help forecasters distin­ guish lightning days that are more active from those that are less active within the same flow regime.

Accomplished: Completed the precipitable water (PWAT) stratifi­ cation lightning c1imatologies for two additional backup sites as requested by the NWS and updated the GUI. Merged the Thomp­ son Index (TI) stability parameter stratification with the PWAT stratified c1imatologies, completed the new GUI and finished the final report. Quarterly Task Summaries (continued)

MesoNAM Verification Phase II (Page 7) .. ,

Purpose: Update the current tool that provides objective verifi­ 45th Weather Squadron MesoNAM Verification Tool V2.0, July 2010 cation statistics of the 12-km North American Mesoscale (NAM) llewloped by NASA'. Awfied Meteorology UnK model (MesoNAM) for CCAFS and KSC. This tool helps the

Launch Weather Officers understand the model's performance M.s.4TaHsIOMMn) .....UllatfOM...' Ullrl/tlellrM_ """l.Jt!\,H-", IlzWtlellrat-. Z.J.lI\,'"'"lIlMf when they use it to evaluate launch commit criteria (LCC) dur­ -..-...... l -"l'YI ing launch operations. The modifications include adding a year of observations and model output data to the original database. The objective analysis consists of comparing the MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and moisture to the observed val­ ues at the KSC/CCAFS wind towers used to evaluate LCC. M«Itlk-*"o..ofTllatlOMhor.j MeMISt.,.,.. o...... '.IIatIOM 1 lU.....tillll'...... l,S4ft,H_"*f UZIllltWLt...... 1,5."'H_ ' Accomplished: Updated the AMU-developed MesoNAM Veri­ fication Tool with statistics calculated after adding 15 months of new data to the period of record. The updated tool has the same structure as the original tool with an easy to use multi­ •• U I'_vU .. " U • -.-M .. M " 11 ... •• U II_U...... II '" " .. M___.. II " I'f U level drop-down menu. The final report was written, distributed, and made available on the AMU website. AMU ACCOMPLISHMENTS DURING THE PAST QUARTER The ~rogress ?eing made in each task is provided in this section, organized by topic, with the pnmary AMU point of contact given at the end of the task discussion.

SHORT-TERM FORECAST IMPROVEMENT

Peak Wind Tool for Shuttle Pads Prognostic Probabilities User LCC, Phase IV 397.. 39A (south) Ms. Crawford modified the scripts 398'~" rj39B (north) used in Phase III to calculate the (Ms. Crawford) 393·····~ probabilities for onshore and offshore The peak winds are an important ",-__394" flow. Using the 2-hour onshore flow Atlas forecast element for the Expendable 41'::: probabilities as an example, the Launch Vehicle and Space Shuttle modified algorithm checked to make 110····· programs. As defined in the Launch sure that the onshore probabilities Commit Criteria (LCC) and Shuttle were created from only onshore data Weather Flight Rules, each vehicle 10 .-Delta IV within the correct time periods. The has peak wind thresholds that cannot result is that the onshore prognostic probabilities were created with only be exceeded in order to ensure safe 6···..£ launch and landing operations. The onshore values and the offshore 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and probabilities created with only off­ the Spaceflight Meteorology Group shore values within the appropriate (SMG) indicate that peak winds are a ~Delta II time periods. challenging parameter to forecast, • launch Pads Graphical User Interface particularly in the cool season. To 2•...• A Wind Towers alleviate some of the difficulty in Ms. Crawford modified the GUI to making this forecast, the AMU calcu­ access the new onshore/offshore lated cool season wind c1imatologies Figure 1. Map showing the locations of stratifications for the hourly climatolo­ and peak speed probabilities for the launch pads and LCC wind towers. gies, diagnostic probabilities, and each of the towers used to evaluate prognostic probabilities. Figure 2 abilities for onshore and offshore LCC (Figure 1) in Phase I (Lambert shows the initial form of the GUI. It flow. These modifications will likely 2002). In Phase III (Crawford 2010), has two tabs, one for the c1imatolo­ make the statistics more robust and gies (Figure 2a) and the other for the the AMU updated these statistics useful to operations. with six more years of data, added probabilities (Figure 2b). On both new time-period stratifications and tabs, the user chooses the tower, created a graphical Choose Analysis Choose Analysis user interface (GUI) Probability J to display the desired Climatology IProbability 1 Climatology values similar to that The range ofmean and peak speeds depends on the values of the Tower I 2NW iJ Height I 54 iJ Month I Oct 3 developed for SMG parameters below. Make desired choices, then dick "Get Speeds ...• to choose the mean and peak values. , in Phase II (Lambert Hour (UTC) 0000 I 2003). The 45 WS .- Tower and Month - .- Forecast Interval launch weather offic­ Probability over I ChO~.~~.~.I.~:. Tower I 2NW the next 0 hours ers (LWOs) and fore­ iJ iJ r. :q~~.CJ.r.l:j 226 - 45 Deg Clockwise casters have seen Upwind Sectors Heightl 54 marked differences (Donat 3 rr N/A modify) Glm_~-Jr. OffShore r. Observed in the tower winds Month I Oct iJ between onshore r r Modeled (GumbeO and offshore flow. Therefore, the 45 Cancel Get~limatology... I Cancel IL·.·.·.·.·~~~:~~~~~:::::::·.·:·.·:]) WS tasked the AMU a I b to recalculate the cli­ matologies and prob- Figure 2. The Climatology a) and Probability b) tabs in the initial GUI form. sensor height, month, and flow regime of interest. The choosing the Probability tab (not shown) allow the user tower must be chosen before the height because the to choose the mean speed and the peak speed of inter­ choice of heights in the drop-down list is limited to the est for the probability. The output forms show all the heights on the tower displayed in the ''Tower'' text box. choices made by the user to get the final values. The option button choice for onshore flow in both tabs is Final Report grayed out for the Tower 2 northwest sensors since on­ shore statistics were not calculated for this side. The Ms. Crawford wrote the final report and, after internal same is true for offshore flow when the southeast side of AMU and external customer reviews, acquired NASA Tower 2 is chosen. The boxes to the right of the Off­ approval and made the report available on the AMU shore and Onshore buttons in the Choose Flow box website at http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/. show the upwind sector for each flow pattern. This value Contact Ms. Crawford at 321-853-8130 or cannot be changed. [email protected] for more information. Figure 3 shows the final output forms from the choic­ es made in Figure 2a and b. Intervening steps after

Req~sted Climatology (1995-2010) equested Probabilities (1995-2010)

Probability ofmeeting or exceeding a spedfic peak speed given a mean speed lCC TOWER WIND CUMATOlOGY , based on the parameters below. During the Month of forTower I 2NW at I 54ft I Oct Tower 2NW Forecast I ohrs Distribution OBSERVED ! I Interval I - Stratification Height J 54ft Flow IOffshore Mean Speed I 12 Ids Month I Oct Sector 1226 -45 Deg Peak Speed 1 20 Ids ... Hour (lIlC}I 0000 loffshore sector1226 - 45 Deg

r- Wind Statistics II Standard Average Deviation Count Choose Peak 110.3 kts I 4.8 kts I 1523 Another 0/0 Analysis 47 5-Min Mean ~ I 2.4 Ids I 1523 r- "'NOTICE'

The probabilities shown here reflect " - ~NOTKE~ historical peak wind oCOJrrence for the Retrieve Another Peak The statistics shown here reflect historical peak and average wind oCQJrrence for period 1995'-20 10. They are not Speed Probability the period 1995-2010. They are not necessarily indicative of future winds. necessarily indicative offuture winds. a b Figure 3. The final output forms for the a) Climatology tab with the choices shown in Figure 2a and b) Probability tab with the choices shown in Figure 2b.

Situational Lightning CCAFS Skid Strip and Patrick Air and 6-hour intervals. This phase up­ Force Base (PAFB) while the NWS dates the previous work by adding 14 Climatologies for Cen­ MLB is responsible for issuing termi­ sites to the 9-site database including tral Florida, Phase V nal aerodrome forecasts (TAF) for the CCAFS Skid Strip, PAFB and 12 airports throughout central Florida. In commercial airports. It also adds (Dr. Bauman) the previous phase (Bauman 2009), three years of NLDN data resulting in The threat of lightning is a daily con­ Dr. Bauman calculated lightning cli­ a 22-year period of record (POR) for cern during the warm season in Flori­ matologies for the Shuttle Landing the warm season months from 1989­ da. Research has revealed distinct Facility (SLF) and eight other airfields 2010. In addition to the flow regime spatial and temporal distributions of in central Florida based on a 19-year stratification, moisture and stability lightning occurrence that are strongly record of c1oud-to-ground lightning stratifications were added to separate influenced by large-scale atmospher­ data from the National Lightning De­ more active from less active lighting ic flow regimes. The 45 WS, SMG tection Network (NLDN) for the warm days within the same flow regime. season months of May through Sep­ and National Weather Service in Mel­ Two New Sites bourne, Fla. (NWS MLB) have the tember (1989-2007). The climatolo­ responsibility of issuing weatl:1er fore­ gies included the probability of light­ Dr. Bauman added the Lakeland casts for airfields located in central ning at 5-, 10-, 20- and 30-NM dis­ (LAL) and Punta Gorda (PGD) air­ Florida. SMG and 45 WS share fore­ tances from the center point of the ports (Figure 4) to the precipitable casting responsibility for the SLF de­ runway at each site. The c1imatolo­ water (PWAT) stratification lightning pending on the mission. The 45 WS gies were stratified by flow regimes climatology as requested by NWS has forecasting responsibility for the with probabilities depicted at 1-, 3-, MLB (see AMU Quarterly Report, Q3 FY11). He updated the GUI and warm season based on the XMR made it available for NWS MLB to sounding. The thresholds were download via the AMU web site. adopted from the TI values in the se­ vere weather forecast tool. The POR Stability Stratification for the TI values was the warm sea­ Dr. Bauman asked NWS MLB to son months from 1989-2010. The TI review data for a test site, COF stratification thresholds were: (PAFB) , with the addition of the • Low: TI < 25 Thompson Index (TI) stratification to • Average: 25 ::;; TI ;:: 34 ensure the reduced sample size did not impact the operational utility of • High: TI > 35 the tool. Upon verification that the UpdatedGUI sample size was sufficient, Dr. Bau­ man created the lightning climatolo­ Dr. Bauman updated the GUI by gies by adding the TI stratification to adding the statistics calculated using the existing dataset for the 36 sites the TI stratification. The only signifi­ requested by the AMU customers. cant change to the GUI can be seen Figure 4 shows the 36 sites and their in the drop-down menu bar (Figure locations within each NWS weather 5) and data bar (Figure 6). The TI forecast office (WFO) area of re­ stratification necessitated another sponsibility. There are six sites in the drop-down menu highlighted in Fig­ NWS Jacksonville region, eight sites ure 5 by the red ellipse. This allows within the NWS Tampa region, seven the user to choose a low, average or sites within the NWS Miami region high TI for the site of interest. Direct­ and fifteen sites within the NWS MLB ly below the menu bar, the data bar (Figure 6) shows the user a sum­ region. Within the NWS MLB region, Figure 4. Map ofFlorida showing the mary of the selected stratifications. the 45 WS and SMG share forecast­ locations of the 36 sites within each of ing responsibility for TIS (SLF) and the four NWS WFO regions included in The TI range, highlighted by the red the 45 WS has forecasting responsi­ this lightning climatology. From north to ellipse, was added to the data bar for bility for XMR (CCAFS) and COF. south, NWS Jacksonville (cyan), NWS the TI stratification. Tampa (green), NWS MLB (yellow) Final Report The TI threshold values were and MWS Miami (magenta). The 45 adopted from previous AMU work on WS and SMG sites located within the Dr. Bauman completed the final the objective lightning tool (Lambert NWS MLB region are shown in red. report and, after acquiring NASA ap­ 2007) and the severe weather fore­ has also found TI to be one of the proval, made the report available on cast tool (Bauman et al. 2005 and best thunderstorm predictors. How­ the AMU website at http:// Watson 2011). These tasks revealed ever, the climatological TI stratifica­ science.ksc. nasa.gov/amu/ that TI was one of the best indicators tion thresholds were not determined of lightning occurrence and reported For more information contact for each month like the PWAT val­ severe weather events during the Dr. Bauman at 321-853-8202 or ues. Therefore, the TI thresholds warm season months. The 45 WS [email protected]. were representative of the entire

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~"Y TTS June 'R

Figure 5. The menu bar used to navigate the GUI (blue bar at top) and an example of an

expanded menu bar depicting navigating to COF during July for a high PWAT and an Sf·, average TI for a SW-2 flow regime. Sf-2 IE I' Otllt,

Site: COf I Sounding: XP.1R I Month: Jul I PW> 1.9S" SW-2 Flow Regime I POR: Warm se sons Jun to Sep 1989·2010 Figure 6. The data bar is located below the menu bar in the GUI and it shows (from left to right) the site, sounding location, month, PWAT range, TI range, time interval, flow regime and POR for the data. MESOSCALE MODELING MesoNAM Verification Tool, a Hypertext Markup Language showing the model bias, standard (HTML) GUI, with the statistics calcu­ deviation of bias, and root mean Phase II (Dr. Watson) lated after adding 15 months to the square error of temperature, dew­ The 45 WS LWOs use the 12-km POR. The tool retains the same point temperature, wind speed and resolution North American Mesoscale structure with a multi-level drop-down wind direction for all towers, heights, (NAM) model (MesoNAM) text and menu written in JavaScript embed­ months, initialization time, and strati­ graphical product forecasts exten­ ded within the HTML code. The main fications for the entire POR sively to support launch weather op­ page of the GUI is shown in Figure 7. (September 2006-April 2011). The title at the top of the page de­ erations. In Phase I of this task Final Report (Bauman 2010), the AMU measured fines the name, version, and date of Dr. Watson completed the final the actual performance of the model the tool. The navigation menu allows objectively by conducting a detailed the user to choose data by placing report, delivered it to the customers, and, after obtaining NASA approval, statistical analysis of model output their mouse pointer over the desired compared to observed values. The tower/site to display a drop-down made it available on the AMU web­ site at http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/ model products included hourly fore­ menu. Locations of the wind towers, casts from 0 to 84 hours based on MesoNAM model grid points, the amu/. CCAFS weather station (KXMR) and model initialization times of 00, 06, For more information contact Dr. the MesoNAM land/sea mask are 12 and 18 UTC. The objective analy­ Watson at 321-853-8264 or shown on the main page of the GUI. sis compared 3.5 years of MesoNAM [email protected]. forecast winds, The updated GUI contains the charts temperature and dew point, as well as the changes in these parameters over time, to the 45th Weather Squadron observed values MesoNAM Verification Tool V3.0, September 2011 from the sensors in Developed by NASA's Applied Meteorology Unit the KSC/CCAFS "'OnW oo~.. OM" Ie 3'tA.. le,... "'" *.. "0" I"" "1" sn.. tMofp ENSCO wind tower net- e II work. For this task, the 45 WS request- ..15 ed the AMU modify '71"--- . - ~. the current tool by -5'13 SLF _ 397 Shuttle , adding an addition- , ~13 _ 398 Shuttle ~< ~Q:-. al year of model 51'2 SLF _393 Shuttle n ..12 e311 e211 _ 4 Shuttle "t output to the data­ ~1~ ~ ~ Atlantic Ocean ~+ base and recalcu­ -041 Atlas V lating the verifica­ 110 Atlas V I Falco tion statistics. The eGIO Indian River AMU will also up­ date the GUI with - 108 Delta IV I Falcon 9 the new statistics. This tool helps the -006 Delta IV I Falcon 9 LWOs understand CCAFS the model's perfor­ Banana River KXMR mance when they • 03Se use it to evaluate ooSe LCC during launch 017"002 Delta II operations. 001e Legend GUI Update _ launch/landing Towers e Other Towers Dr. Watson up­ MeloNAM Grid Points dated the AMU­ developed Meso­ loc" M'lttJ Prottcttd M.o6tt Off NAM Verification Figure 7. Main page of the GUI in a web browser showing the basic layout of the GUI. AMUACTIVITIES AMU Operations Iyze a thunderstorm anvil that had those, seven were approved for the developed beyond the three-hour AMU to work on in FY 2012: begin­ Mr. Wheeler worked on setting arc in the anvil tool display. ning on 3 October 2011: up a new Group Policy Object for On the morning of 14 Septem­ the AMU Windows 7 computers. He • Calculate differences between ber, a forecaster asked Mr. Wheeler model and observational upper­ also updated the FY 2012 IT Securi­ for assistance in running the objec­ air data for the 45 WS LWOs; ty Plan and worksheets and upload­ tive lightning forecast tool on ed them for NASA IT review. • Develop a tool to calculate the MIDDS. The tool would not display. probability of violating upper-air Mr. Wheeler conducted an in­ Mr. Wheeler checked the MIDDS wind constraints at VAFB; ventory of all NASA AMU equipment command in the text screen, re­ and turned in several pieces that viewed the text output after issuing • Update and modify the current were not being used. He cleaned up the command, and determined that 45 WS objective lightning fore­ files and directories on the shared the forecaster may have tried to run cast tool; file server by compressing them to the tool before the morning sounding • Determine the relationship be­ free up storage space. He also con­ was complete. He deleted the infor­ tween GPS precipitable water tinued updating the thunderstorm mation generated by running the and lightning occurrence; fire case training tool. command, waited for the sounding • Develop lightning forecast equa­ During the countdown of the 8 to complete, and then ran the tool tions for airports in east-central September Delta II launch, Ms. Win­ successfully. Florida; ters of the 45 WS asked Ms. Craw­ All AMU team members partici­ ford about the lifetime of the mature pated in preparations for the AMU • Determine the logistics involved non-transparent stage of a thunder­ Tasking meeting scheduled for 26 in creating a dual Doppler analy­ storm anvil as documented by an September. For the first time, the sis with the two local radars; earlier AMU study. Ms. Crawford AMU was able to propose tasks for • Configure a high-resolution read the final report on the develop­ customers. The AMU team mem­ mesoscale model for several U. ment of the anvil forecast tool written bers wrote task proposals and re­ S. launch ranges; and by Dr. Short, and found that the av­ sponded to customer proposals. erage lifetime is two hours with a • Set up a local data manager da­ Fifteen tasks were considered standard deviation of one hour. Ms. ta retrieval system. during the AMU tasking meeting. Of Winters used this information to ana-

AMU Chief's Technical began working on AMU contract precipitation and lightning probabili­ closeout activities and made prepa­ ties from the Global Forecast Sys­ Activities rations for the FY 2012 AMU tasking tem (GFS) Model Output Statistic (Dr. Huddleston) meeting that will occur on 26 Sep­ (MaS) data for 2010. She then cre­ tember. ated an algorithm to blend the GFS Dr. Huddleston sent out the call MaS with climatology so that skill Dr. Huddleston wrote Visual for AMU tasking proposals for FY scores could be examined for pre­ Basic code for Mr. McAleenan and 2012 and distributed the proposals cipitation and lightning probabilities Mr. Roeder of the 45 WS to strip the to all AMU tasking participants. She obtained by each. REFERENCES Bauman, W. H., M. M. Wheeler, and D. A. Short, 2005: Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid. NASA Contractor Report CR-2005-212563, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 51 pp. [Available from ENSCO, Inc., 1980 N. Atlantic Ave., Suite 830, Cocoa Beach, FL 32931 and http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/severe-tool­ final.pdf.] Bauman, W. H. 111,2009: Situational Lightning Climatologies for Central Florida: Phase IV. NASA Contractor Re­ port CR-2009-214763, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 39 pp. [Available from ENSCO, Inc., 1980 N. Atlantic Ave., Suite 830, Cocoa Beach, FL 32931 and http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/lightning-climo­ phase4.pdf.] Bauman, W. H. 111,2010: Verify MesoNAM Performance. NASA Contractor Report CR-2010-216287, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 31 pp. [Available from ENSCO, Inc., 1980 N. Atlantic Ave., Suite 830, Cocoa Beach, 32931, and at http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final.html.] ------

REFERENCES (continued)

Crawford, W., 2010: Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Forecasts on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase III. NASA Contractor Report CR-2010-216281, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 33 pp. [Available from ENSCO, Inc., 1980 N. Atlantic Ave., Suite 830, Cocoa Beach, FL 32931 and http://science.ksc. nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/windstats-phase3. pdf.] Lambert, W., 2002: Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts on Kennedy Space Center/ Cape Canaveral Air Force Station: Phase I Results. NASA Contractor Report CR-2002-211180, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 39 pp. [Available from ENSCO, Inc., 1980 N. Atlantic Ave., Suite 830, Cocoa Beach, FL 32931 and http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/windstats-phase1.pdf.] Lambert, W., 2003: Extended Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Analyses at the Shuttle Landing Facility: Phase II Results. NASA Contractor Report CR-2003-211188, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 27 pp. [Available from ENSCO, Inc., 1980 N. Atlantic Ave., Suite 830, Cocoa Beach, FL 32931 and http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/windstats-phase2.pdf.] Lambert, W., 2007: Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase II. NASA Contractor Report CR-2005-214732, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 57 pp. [Available from ENSCO, Inc., 1980 N. Atlantic Ave., Suite 830, Cocoa Beach, FL, 32931, and at http:// science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/objective-Itg-fcst-phase2.pdf.] Watson, L, 2011: Upgrade Summer Severe Weather Tool. NASA Contractor Report CR-2011-216299, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 29 pp. [Available from ENSCO, Inc., 1980 N. Atlantic Ave., Suite 830, Cocoa Beach, FL 32931 and http://science. ksc. nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/severe-tool-upgrade-II.pdf.]

LIST OFACRONYMS

14 WS 14th Weather Squadron LAL Lakeland, Fla. 3-letter identifier 30 SW 30th Space Wing LCC Launch Commit Criteria 30 WS 30th Weather Squadron LWO Launch Weather Officer 45 RMS 45th Range Management Squadron MesoNAM 12-km North American Mesoscale model 45 OG 45th Operations Group MOS Model Output Statistics 45 SW 45th Space Wing MSFC Marshall Space Flight Center 45 SW/SE 45th Space Wing/Range Safety NCEP National Centers for Environmental 45 WS 45th Weather Squadron Prediction AFSPC Air Force Space Command NLDN National Lightning Detection Network AFWA Air Force Weather Agency NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric AMU Applied Meteorology Unit Administration CCAFS Cape Canaveral Air Force Station NWS MLB National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL CG Cloud-to-Ground lightning PAFB Patrick Air Force Base CSR Computer Sciences Raytheon PGD Punta Gorda, Fla. 3-letter identifier FSU Florida State University POR Period of Record FY Fiscal Year PWAT Precipitable Water GFS Global Forecast System SLF Shuttle Landing Facility GSD Global Systems Division SMC Space and Missile Center GUI Graphical User Interface SMG Spaceflight Meteorology Group HTML Hypertext Markup Language TAF Terminal Aerodrome Forecast JSC Johnson Space Center TI Thompson Index KCOF (COF) PAFB 4(3)-letter identifier USAF United States Air Force KSC Kennedy Space Center VAFB Vandenberg Air Force Base KTTS (TIS) SLF 4(3)-letter identifier WFO Weather Forecast Office KXMR (XMR) CCAFS 4(3)-letter identifier The AMU has been in operation since September 1991. Tasking is determined annually with reviews at least semi-annually

AMU Quarterly Reports are available on the Internet at http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/ They are also available in electronic format via email. If you would like to be added to the email distribution list, please contact Ms. Winifred Crawford (321-853-8130, [email protected]). If your mailing information changes or if you would like to be removed from the distribution list, please notify Ms. Crawford or Dr. Lisa Huddleston (321-861-4952, [email protected]).

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NASA HQIAN 45 WS/DOR/M. McAleenan HQ USAF/A30-WXJ 412 OSS/OSWM/C. Donohue W. Gerstenmaier 45 WS/DOR/J. Smith C. Cantrell UAH/NSSTCIW. Vaughan NASA KSCIANR. Cabana 45 WS/DOR/R. Parker HQ USAF/lntegration, Plans, FANK. Shelton-Mur NASA KSC/NE-E9/J. Perotti 45 WS/DOR/F. Flinn and Requirements Divl FSU Department of Directorate of Weatherl NASA KSC/LX/P. Phillips 45 WS/DORI 1. McNamara Meteorology/H. Fuelberg A30-WX NASA KSC/MAIL. Cain ERAU/Applied Aviation 45 WS/DOR/J. Tumbiolo NOAA "W/NP"/L. Uccellini NASA KSC/PHI R. Willcoxon 45 WSIDOR/K. Winters Sciences/C. Herbster NOANOARISSMC-I/J. Golden NASA KSC/GP-2/M. Leinbach 45 WS/DOR/D. Craft ERAU/J. Lanicci NOANNWS/OST12/SSMC21 NCAR/J. Wilson NASA KSC/NESC-1/S. Minute 45 WS/SYAlJ. Saul J. McQueen NCARIY. H. Kuo NASA KSC/GP/D. Lyons 45 WS/SYRIW. Roeder NOAA Office of Military Affairsl NOANFRB/GSD/J. McGinley NASA KSC/GP/R. Segert 45 RMS/CCIT. Rock M. Babcock Office of the Federal NASA KSC/GP-B/J. Madura 45 SW/CD/G. Kraver NWS Melbourne/B. Hagemeyer Coordinator for NASA KSC/GP-B/F. Merceret 45 SW/SELR/K. Womble NWS Melbourne/D. Sharp Meteorological Services NASA KSC/GP-BI 45 SWIXPR/R. Hillyer NWS Melbourne/S. Spratt and Supporting Researchl L. Huddleston 45 OG/CC/D. Sleeth NWS Melbourne/P. Blottman R. Dumont NASA KSC/GP-B/J. Wilson 45 OGITD/C. Terry NWS Melbourne/M. Volkmer Boeing Houston/S. Gonzalez NASA KSC/SAIM. Wetmore CSR 4500/J. Osier NWS Southern Region HQf'WI Aerospace CorplT. Adang NASA KSC/SAlH. Garrido CSR 45001T. Long SR"/S. Cooper ITI/G. Kennedy NASA KSC/SAIB. Braden CSR 7000/M. Maier NWS Southern Region HQI"WI Timothy Wilfong & Associatesl NASA KSCNAIA. Mitskevich SLRSC/ITI/L. Grier SR3"/D. Billingsley 1. Wilfong NASA KSCNA-2/C. Dovale SMC/RNP/M. Erdmann NWSI"W/OST1 "lB. Saffle ENSCO, Inc/J. Clift NASA JSCIWS8/F. Brody SMC/RNPIT. Nguyen NWSf'W/OST12"/D. Melendez ENSCO, Inc.lE...La ~~rt NASA MSFC/EV44/D. Edwards SMC/RNP/R. Bailey NWS/OST/PPD/SPB/P. Roohr EJ\tS8 ,"lneJ ."'Y'elf 'av,lc NASA MSFC/EV44/B. Roberts SMC/RNP(PRC)/K. Spencer NSSUD. Forsyth ENSCO, Inc./S. Masters /~,. NASA MSFC/EV44/R. Decker HQ AFSPC/A3FW/J. Carson 30 WS/DO/J. Roberts NASA MSFC/EV44/H. Justh 30 WS/DOR/D. Vorhees HQ AFWAlA3/M. Surmeier / NASA MSFC/MP71/G. Overbey HQ AFWAlA3T/S. Augustyn 30 WS/OSS/OSWSI M. Schmeiser NASA MSFC/SPoRTI HQ AFWAlA3T/D. Harper G. Jedlovec 30 WS/OSS/OSWSIT. Brock HQ AFWAl16 WSIWXEI NASA DFRC/RAIE. Teets J. Cetola 30 SWIXPE/R. Ruecker NASA LaRC/M. Kavaya HQ AFWAl16 WSIWXEI Det 3 AFWAlWXUK. Lehneis 45 WS/CC/S. Cahanin G. Brooks NASIC/FCTI/G. Marx 45 WS/DO/L. Shoemaker HQ AFWAl16 WSIWXPI 46 WSIIDO/J. Mackey 45 WS ADOIW. Whisel D. Keller 46 WSIWST/E. Harris HQ USAF/A30-W/R. Stoffler 412 OSS/OSW/P. Harvey

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