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February 2018 Great Basin Water Supply Webinar

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February 2018 Great Basin Water Supply Webinar CBRFC Water Supply Forecast Basins ree G n R iv e r re e k C N e e n w i P Idaho F o r k R i v e r Great Basin er iv r R e k r iv o R F Wyoming r w ea e N B r Q e v i R n For e s k e a r G r B m e e o k v a r i h r o R T F r R a iv s e e h t B r i m F S o n G t e n re u e e O tle lle n e t Creek R k i r r a v e e e L iv Bearv r R i r y R a d e r an B a S e ig Water Supply Briefing B B B r ea ve r i Ri R v G r e H r r a am e e s rk e B Fo n R iv e r r tte Creek Bi Fo cks rk Bla r ir e o v v r i se R e r e R a Gorg e Uppering Green m B a l B F e a r Weber R ive Ogden River r k e W re C e st b o er L reat R i ver rk G S Ha rys Fo ke River a E n a a n l W S t s le L t t e it a C b L k a e k n r lk Cree e y h a S o R C la r i n v te e r C e Cr J v r eek o re i r e d R k e a r n k e a b Six R Creeks L e River i er r v b lt e e W v a e W Ri S r t k a l G re E Provo R iver Yampa-White Y r a e mpa v Ri i D v ProvR o er u da W o c va h Ne v e s o e t C r sn anyo rP e n ve R R i iv o er v ro P Duchesne e r k ive a R L rry r h be ive a w ite R t S ra h U p r St a Strawberry Rive W n is White R h F rk iv o Fo er rk th or N So ldi er C ree k W r h e i t iv e R R n i v e e e r r G Colo. Abv k ree M ish C F u d r C e r e v i e k R h c it er P Kremling February 7, 2018 iv n R r a P ie S ric Utah v e e S R iv e r Se v ie r R iv e r ver r Ri C vie ottonw e oo S d Col-Cameo C r r e e v e Ri k ch San P it ke r La ie Co v l r e o ra e S do R iv Ta yl San Ra or f R a i e k v l e e R e r i r v C e r r r e e e c v v a i i f r r R R e G u e r S iv u r it e olore n e h v R D s n v ea r R iso Ri B e iv r W i er n Gunnison lo v River y e a S T r M e u iv d R d n y o is ek C n Clear Cre n re u e G Tom k er ich Brenda Alcorn - Sr. Hydrologist r iv i C e Gunnison R re v ek i er R Gunnison Riv e it h W k D e i e r r t r y e D C v r i e e Ri ver r iv v r R e e remo R av F nt i t B e r l t S e R a i n O iv v e M e r ig S ue l R iv h e s r r a e v W i y R le r l ie Dolores a v V e r S e w v i do o Colora d Sevier R a e r Colorado Basin River Forecast Center e M i v r e e S v i k R r e o it F h t s W a E E sc Laa ke Powell la n t e ll r R e e iv w iv e o D s R r e P o D lore k l o a o L r e s R i v e r P a r r ia e reek R o C iv McElm R i k v r e in e e re P r iv San C o a r g R Juan c h n R o Vi a ive a n r S Ju r lm l a a rk B nt o an cE n a F S Rio a C East M g la a ra B t R e W i a v e v a r r e e s iv er h r R os Rive r an iv D nc Ju R er a San jo a iv M va m R N a gin W Vir a sh k e e r C b a C h n i a n l K e San R Mu C Juan ive d r r n River d e San Jua y e R k iv e r C Virgin a n on La rgo L a s V e ga s W a sh San Juan L L a a F lam s k H ing V e a o ega M v W ash s W ash e a k a s C ee d u ha Cr c ck C o R Du a C iv n olo e y ra r o do Riv Lower Colorn adoe r Arizona H u a la p a i W a s h Ca ta ra c t C an y o n Tr ux to C n o W l o ash r a d Little Colorado o R sh i v a e W r k r e e e Wash iv r o o C d R l n a o b r r d i a o lo a D C r n o lo o C o y lo C B n b i e r g a u ve C C P Ri h h o i s rc R n a e io o u Pe W P sc W d ad a oo o sh tton w Co co k exi e w M e e r N ut C Waln Verde Creek ds ley un al Was M n V h n B mso yo i ia k g ill e n W e a k r S C e e r e v a C i k ck r R n a C V O k Ja r i d k e a n e e re Cle u C y e r C Z r d r o R e e l C v o i v R a r e e i e n a n v r i k o d e B ver Creek r e r ea y L o B e y B n itt r r t a le C R e ol C D W C o i ra v e n d o e Rive it o r r Cr l C n x eek eek e ar a n r Cr v riz r y t Clea e o W G L s We h ash C er Riv B A ia i g r g ua a B M u F a g ri t C a S n r h a e R o S i e v w k e r r B e L ill William iv o s R iver R w Phone: 1-877-929-0660 de C B st Ve r r l Ea r a e ive e R c k o k d ra C C lo a a o er r n r C iv i R y z a o o p n C uroy a m ree rd Creek S ay k o o ss C h l a ite Riv as s W H h er ial W as W nn h V rk nte o Ce e F rd Salt River h k e t T e R r alifornia o C e iv o r n e C N C r t o h er e e iv R v C r te r hi a r y W e er ork sh T C e C iv F a k R st J r k k r lt Ea a i e W l e e a r c b e e e S e k r r k r r y e ig a C C Riv b W e T S it b k e W h i r alt t a n o Riv W sh u m e k ca r a S y sh S iv r A R e e ri t r v zo S Sal i n a r R a lt C R ve a iv i w n P R a er B la k Be e l in c a h Legend s v N a e a l r r C C W e r r iv e e d Salt R e er Rivers r Riv e k os k a l l ar l n C u a B S <all other values> W a FEATURE t Gila e ek r Qu een Cre m G iver a ila o R n Rive sc Lake Dry r i W nc M a E a o r g sh B a o on g F ll i l o G ta e n n Lake Intermittent C il a a R C C C o S r iv er r r l r e e e o e e v e r e i k k a k R Reservoir d sh o o a Passcode: 1706374 d R S W S la R a l i iv i a a G r o e v r n k o n Reservoir Intermittent e l d e r V S P o a e A C Ta n rav nk ta d a W C r ip a o a s r Swamp or Marsh h u R C lo S z r o ra ver a i e d o Ri R v e C u e k c iv e r Basins d er a W a s h RFC Boundary h s States a W L del o h O a s s a s r R d o o a o a S R b a W n n le S a a s g i t W i C m n B o a a n S sh C re e k h s a Ri W llit o Ri n ver h o T s anqu e Wa m e Verd i S P n a n a t S h a s n a o W W y a le sh w a r n B o y n a C n o s V d am i h v o s ri a W a a D s W h r a t l Draw A r te Please mute your phone a r w ve e Ri it ri h ma W A Baboco ri k va ee ca Cr W lie a es sh L Mexico r e v i R z r u C until ready to ask questions Sa n ta 0 25 50 100 150 200 Miles NOAA,NWS,CBRFC www.cbrfc.noaa.gov B.Bernard 2014 Today’s Presentation January weather – Mild and dry pattern continued Current snowpack conditions – Near record low snowpack in many areas 2018 water supply forecasts – February update Select forecast site review – Evolution Plots February forecast – Much improvement over January? Upcoming weather – Below average precipitation again in February? Contacts & Questions Phone: 1-877-929-0660 Passcode: 1706374 * Please mute your phone until ready to ask questions * Early January Storm System brought widespread (but light) precipitation amounts Jan 8th 2018 Early January Precipitation January Weather Mean Atmospheric Pattern Strong January 2018 persistent Low in the east Mean high pressure in the west Winter Weather Much below average precipitation in both December and January… Bear 70% Bear 75% Weber 60% Weber 65% Six Creeks 65% Six Creeks 65% Provo 40% Provo 70% Winter Weather …combined with much above average temperatures Water Year Precipitation Entire CBRFC forecast area Great Basin (primary contributing areas) Greatest impacts Bear 80% Missing out on storms Weber 65% Six Creeks 55% Provo 50% Snow Conditions SNOTEL Snow Water Equivalent (% 1981-2010 median) January 8, 2018 February 5, 2018 Snow Conditions SNOTEL SWE Historical Rankings (period of record 30-40 years) (**earliest year 1978+) January 8, 2018 February 5, 2018 Red: Lowest on record Orange: Many in bottom 3 of record Dry seasons have happened in the past How does this year compare? Atmospheric Pattern Atmospheric Pattern December 1976 December 2017 Blocking high Strong Hudson pressure ridge Bay low Previously 1976/77 winter was referenced because it stands out as one of the lowest snow years.
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