God Wills It: Presidents and the Political Use of Religion David O
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God Wills It: Presidents and the Political Use of Religion David O’Connell Submitted in partial fulfillment of the Requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY 2012 © 2012 David O’Connell All rights reserved ABSTRACT God Wills It: Presidents and the Political Use of Religion David O’Connell How have American presidents used religious rhetoric? Has it helped them achieve their goals? Why or why not? These are the main questions this dissertation attempts to grapple with. I begin my study by developing a typology of presidential religious rhetoric that consists of three basic styles of speech. Ceremonial religious rhetoric is meant to capture those times when a president uses religious language in a broad sense that is appropriate for the occasion. Examples would include holiday addresses and funeral eulogies. I label a second variant of religious rhetoric comforting and calming. A president will frequently use religious rhetoric as he tries to shepherd the country through the difficult aftermath of a terrorist attack, a natural disaster or a riot. The final kind I have called instrumental. A president uses instrumental religious rhetoric when he makes an argument founded on religious concepts or beliefs in an attempt to convince interested parties to support a goal of his, such as passing a piece of legislation. The majority of the project focuses on this last type. I propose a strict set of coding rules for both identifying when instrumental religious rhetoric has appeared and for gauging its possible impact. My measures of potential effectiveness focus on the president’s three most important relationships- his relationship with the public, his relationship with the media and his relationship with Congress. The eight case study chapters include analyses of Eisenhower’s calls for increased mutual security funding, Carter’s rhetoric describing his energy policies and Clinton’s rhetoric about the impeachment proceedings against him, among others. The limited number of case studies immediately yields an interesting finding: it turns out that presidents do not often make consistent religious arguments for their governmental objectives. Further, when instrumental religious rhetoric is used, presidents limit themselves to discussing certain issues where religion might be said to be naturally applicable- questions of national security, civil rights and scandal. As it is, two presidents, Truman and Nixon, never used a religious rhetorical strategy at all. Indeed, it appears that whether due to personal taste or political complications, almost all presidents are quite uncomfortable using instrumental religious rhetoric. Therefore, a crisis is shown to be a necessary condition for a president to engage in religious speechifying. The existence of a crisis seems to be needed to force many a president to overcome his reluctance to drape his goals in religious rhetoric. The main finding of this dissertation, however, is that instrumental religious rhetoric is not very helpful to a goal-oriented president. In nearly every case, public opinion does not respond to the president’s religious pleas, the media reacts critically to both his ideas and his language and the reception of his proposals in Congress disappoints. This surprising conclusion displaces the results of earlier major studies of presidential religious rhetoric that claimed such language had a powerful force to it. A final experiment was designed to explore the causal dynamics behind the findings of the case studies. Why does religious rhetoric fail? Is it because it is simply unpersuasive? Or, rather, is the explanation found in the context (i.e. crisis situations) in which such rhetoric has appeared? The experiment was designed to decide between these two competing hypotheses. Student participants were given sample speeches containing either religious or secular arguments for a political goal. Treatments were designed to accurately mimic where and how religious rhetoric has historically been used. Results support the former interpretation; exposure to a religious policy argument has no effect on an individual’s opinion. Exposure to secular rhetoric is slightly more impactful but, regardless, ideology and partisan affiliation are far more important than either type when it comes to explaining opinions. The religious dimensions of presidential leadership have been a constant throughout history, becoming even more visible in the post-war period. This dissertation greatly furthers our understanding of this important subject. It is valuable for anyone interested in either the challenges of presidential power or in the role that religion plays in contemporary American politics. Table of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction……………………………………………………………………………1 Chapter 2: Types of Presidential Religious Rhetoric……………………………...…………….32 Chapter 3: Theory and Methods…………………………………………………………………68 Chapter 4: The Brotherhood of Man: Dwight Eisenhower’s Religious Rhetoric on Mutual Security Funding………………………………………………………………………………..102 Chapter 5: Holy War on the Battlefield of Energy: Jimmy Carter’s Religious Rhetoric on Energy Policy…………………………………………………………………………………………...141 Chapter 6: Arms, Armageddon and the Evil Empire: Ronald Reagan’s Religious Rhetoric on Defense Spending………………………………………………………….…………………...185 Chapter 7: Just War in the Garden of Good and Evil: George H.W. Bush’s Religious Rhetoric on the Persian Gulf War……………………………………………………………………………234 Chapter 8: God’s Gift to Humanity: George W. Bush’s Religious Rhetoric on the War on Terror…………………………………………………………………………………………...282 Chapter 9: All God’s Children: John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson’s Religious Rhetoric on Civil Rights……………………………………………………………….…………………….333 Chapter 10: Have Mercy: Gerald Ford’s Religious Rhetoric on the Nixon Pardon…………....401 Chapter 11: “I Have Sinned”: Bill Clinton’s Religious Rhetoric on Impeachment……………437 Chapter 12: An Experimental Evaluation of Instrumental Religious Rhetoric………………...476 Chapter 13: Conclusion………………………………………………………………………...507 i List of Charts, Graphs and Illustrations Charts 3.1 Why Religious Rhetoric Might Influence Political Outcomes…………………………..69 5.1 Carter 1979 Public Approval…………………………………………………………...171 5.2 ABC News/Harris on Energy Policy…………………………………………………...172 5.3 NBC News/AP on Energy Policy………………………………………………………173 6.1 Gallup on Spending for National Defense………………………………………….…..221 6.2 CBS/NYT on Defense Spending………………………………………………….……222 6.3 NORC/Roper on Defense Spending……………………………………………………223 7.1 Bush July 1990 – March 1991 Public Approval………………………………………..241 7.2 CBS/NYT on Bush’s Handling of Iraq…………………………………………………242 7.3 Gallup on Bush’s Handling of Iraq……………………………………………………..243 8.1 Gallup Approval of Bush’s Handling of Terrorism…………………………………….311 8.2 Pew Center on Decision to Use Force Against Iraq……………………………………312 8.3 Pew Center on U.S. Success at Reducing Threat of Terrorism………………………...313 9.1 Kennedy 1963 Public Approval………………………………………………………...389 10.1 Ford August 1974 – March 1975 Approval…………………………………………….424 11.1 Clinton January 1998 – February 1999 Public Approval………………………………462 11.2 ABC News Polling on Lewinsky Scandal……………………………………………...463 Tables 3.1 Major Presidential Objectives……………………………………………………………84 4.1 Opinion Change Following Eisenhower’s Mutual Security Addresses………………...127 4.2 Editorial Coverage of Eisenhower’s Second Inaugural……...........................................131 ii 4.3 Editorial Coverage of Eisenhower’s Mutual Security Address on May 21, 1957……………………………………………………………………………………………..134 4.4. Editorial Coverage of Eisenhower’s Mutual Security Speeches Between December 1959 and January 1960…………………………………………………………………………..…...136 5.1 Editorial Coverage of Carter’s “Crisis of Confidence” Speech………………………...176 6.1 Editorial Coverage of Reagan’s November 22, 1982 Address on National Defense…………………………………………………………………………………………226 7.1 Editorial Coverage of Bush’s 1991 State of the Union Address……………………….272 8.1 Editorial Coverage of Bush’s National Address on September 20, 2001………………317 8.2 Editorial Coverage of Bush’s Address to the Nation from Ellis Island, September 11, 2002………………………………………………………………………………………..……321 8.3 Editorial Coverage of Bush’s Second Inaugural………………………………………..325 9.1 Editorial Coverage of Kennedy’s June 11, 1963 Civil Rights Speech…………………393 9.2 Editorial Coverage of Johnson’s First Congressional Address and his Thanksgiving Speech………………………………………………………………………………………......395 10.1 Editorial Coverage of Ford’s Pardon Announcement on September 8, 1974…..........................................................................................................................................428 11.1 Editorial Coverage of Clinton’s National Prayer Breakfast Speech on September 11, 1998……………………………………………………………………………..………………467 12.1 Sample Speech Treatment and Question……………………………………………….482 12.2 Selected Summary Statistics on Three Questionnaires…………………………………483 12.3 Difference of Means- Control Group vs. Religious Treatment………………………...486 12.4 Difference of Means- Control Group vs. Secular Treatment…………………………...487 12.5 Difference of Means- Strength of Argument…………………………………………...488 12.6 Predictors for Opinion on U.S. Engagement With the World………………………….491 12.7 Predictors for Opinion on Civil Rights…………………………………………………492 iii 12.8 Predictors for Opinion on Environmental Regulation………………………………….493 12.9 Predictors for Opinion on If a President Should Resign Due to an Affair……………..494 12.10