Long Range Facilities Plan 2018 Update Sooke School District

LONG RANGE FACILITIES PLAN 2018 UPDATE SOOKE SCHOOL DISTRICT

June 2018

CONTENTS

SUMMARY 1 APPENDICES A Enrolment Forecasts for Each School 1. INTRODUCTION B Summary Enrolment Forecast 1.1 Organization of Schools 3 C Eligible School Sites Proposal 1.2 Geography of the Sooke School District 3 1.3 Previous Planning Studies 3 REPORT DATA 2. EXISTING SITUATION Report: Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School 2.1 Community Context 8 District 2.2 School Capacities 8 Matrix project number: 1845 2.3 Temporary Accommodation 11 Client: School District 62 (Sooke) 2.4 Physical Condition of School Facilities 11 Date: 2018 06 05 3. ENROLMENT FORECAST Matrix Planning Associates 3.1 Approach to Enrolment Forecasts 13 200 Douglas Street, Suite 503 3.2 Future Residential Development 13 Victoria, British Columbia, Canada V8V 2P2 3.3 Yield Factors 17 Telephone: 250-598-9912 3.4 Overall Enrolment Forecasts 17 Website: matrixplanning.bc.ca 3.5 Long-term Enrolment Prospects 19 This report is wrtten in the third person plural. 4. BASELINE CAPACITY UTILIZATION ‘We’ refers to Matrix Planning Associates. 4.1 Introduction to Capacity Utilization 20

4.2 Baseline Utilization Analysis 20

5. EMERGING FACILITIES PLAN 5.1 Utilization Analysis for Emerging Plan 24 5.2 New School Sites 27 5.3 Emerging Plan for Secondary Schools 27 5.4 Emerging Plan for Middle Schools 29 5.5 Emerging Plan for Elementary Schools in Sooke 29 5.6 Emerging Plan for Elementary Schools in North Langford 30 5.7 Emerging Plan for Elementary Schools in South Langford 30 5.8 Emerging Plan for Elementary Schools in West Langford 31 5.9 Emerging Plan for Elementary Schools in Colwood 31 5.10 Summary of Emerging Facilities Plan 31 5.11 Preliminary Project Priorities 32

SUMMARY

School District Growth Prospects The Sooke School District (SSD) is a rapidly growing part of the Capital Regional District (CRD) comprising Langford, Colwood, Sooke, Metchosin, Highlands and the Juan de Fuca Electoral Area. Most growth over the next decade will occur in Langford, Colwood and Sooke. We estimate that enrolment in SSD schools will increase by 37% from 9,861 in 2017 to 13,550 eleven years later in 2028. That is a total increase of 3,689 students or about 335 new students each year. There will be relatively more growth in the secondary grades than in the middle and elementary grades.

Anticipated Need for Space The capacity utilization of SSD schools already exceeds 100% (the 2017 enrolment of 10,308 students compared with the overall operational capacity of 9,524 spaces) and will increase to 135% by 2028. This is even after assuming completion of the approved 600-space expansion to Royal Bay Secondary. Currently, SSD has deployed 51 portable classrooms to alleviate overcrowding in many schools. The scale of temporary accommodation for SSD schools will grow until the proposed new and expanded schools have been provided. With the goal of operating at 95-100% capacity utilization, the emerging facilities plan for SSD indicates that a total of nearly 3,500 new spaces must be provided over the next few years. Since the plan calls for much of the required new spaces to be built as seven new schools on new sites, there is an urgent need to secure property for some of these proposed new schools.

Emerging Plan for Secondary and Middle Schools The plan for SSD secondary schools is to: Expand Royal Bay Secondary by 600 spaces. We have assumed this will be accomplished by 2020. Build a new secondary school in the Westshore area with an initial capacity of 800 spaces and substantial expansion capability. Acquiring a site for this large project is a high priority. Expand Edward Milne Secondary. The plan for SSD middle schools is to: Build a new 700-space middle school in the Westshore area. A site has been acquired for this project. This site will be shared with the proposed West Langford Elementary. Expand Journey Middle. Expand Dunsmuir Middle. Modernize and expand Spencer Middle.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 1

Emerging Plan for Elementary Schools We have organized the plan for elementary schools into three geographic areas: Sooke, Westshore north of the highway, and the remainder of Westshore. The plan for elementary schools in the Sooke area is to: Build a new 396-space Sooke River Elementary on a site already acquired at Sunriver Estates. Replace Sooke Elementary with a larger new school. Replace or renovate and, possibly expand, John Muir Elementary. The plan for elementary schools in the area north of the Trans-Canada Highway is to: Build a new 396-space North Langford Elementary on a site that has already been acquired. Replace Millstream Elementary with a new and larger school. The emerging facilities plan for elementary schools in the part of Westshore south of the Trans-Canada Highway is to: Build a new 396-space West Langford Elementary on a site already acquired. This site will be shared with the proposed new middle school. Build a new 396-space South Langford Elementary on a new site to be acquired on or near Latoria Road. SSD is actively pursuing property options for this site. Build a new Royal Bay Elementary on a site designated as part of the Royal Bay development. This site has not yet been acquired. Replace Savory Elementary with a new and larger school. Replace Sangster Elementary with a new and possibly larger school. Modernize Willway, Ruth King, Wishart and Hans Helgesen elementary schools.

Top Priorities The most pressing facilities needs for SSD are to: Build the new middle school and the new West Langford Elementary on a site already acquired. Acquire a site and build the new South Langford Elementary. Acquire a site for a new secondary school in Westshore. Build the new North Langford Elementary on a site already acquired. Build the new Sooke River Elementary on a site already acquired. Replace Millstream Elementary with a new and larger school.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 2

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 ORGANIZATION OF SCHOOLS As illustrated in Figure 1 on the next page, students in the Sooke School District (SSD) move from elementary school to middle school in Grade 6, and from middle school to secondary school in Grade 9. The only exception is John Stubbs which is a K-8 single track French Immersion school drawing students from across the district. In addition to John Stubbs, French Immersion is offered as a dual track program at Poirier, Millstream, Journey and Belmont. SSD has a total of 24 community schools. There are 17 K-5 elementary schools, three 6-8 middle schools, one K-8 school (John Stubbs) and three 9-12 secondary schools. The addition of the new schools proposed in this long range plan will necessitate changes to catchment boundaries, revisions to the flow of students into middle and secondary, and modifications to the French Immersion program.

1.2 GEOGRAPHY OF THE SOOKE SCHOOL DISTRICT SSD comprises six local government entities — City of Colwood, City of Langford, District of Highlands, District of Metchosin, District of Sooke and the Juan de Fuca Electoral Area (including East Sooke and Port Renfrew). As illustrated in Figure 2, the area from west of Sooke to Port Renfrew is very thinly populated. In addition, the area between Sooke and Langford is relatively underdeveloped. Much of the population in SSD lives in Langford and Colwood. Colwood, Langford, Highlands and Metchosin are collectively known as the Westshore. SSD shares boundaries with three other school districts: School District 79 (Cowichan Valley) is to the north. School District 63 (Saanich) is to the northeast. School District 61 (Greater Victoria) is to the east. Figure 3 shows the locations for six of the seven community schools in the Sooke Zone. The school in Port Renfrew is more than an hour’s drive from Sooke. Figure 4 shows the locations for 16 of the 17 community schools in the Westshore Zone. Hans Helgesen Elementary in Metchosin is off the map to the southwest.

1.3 PREVIOUS PLANNING STUDIES This update of SSD’s long range facilities plan is the latest of a series of district- wide planning studies conducted by the rapidly growing school district: Long Range Facilities Plan, 2016 Update, Cascade Facilities Management Consultants, September 2016. District Facilities Plan, 2010 Update, Matrix Planning Associates, February 2011. Long Range Facilities Plan, 2007 Update, Matrix Planning Associates, May 2007. Long Range Facilities Plan, Matrix Planning Associates, May 2005.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 3

Figure 1: Flow of Students in SSD Schools

Port Renfrew

French Immersion schools have rounded corners John Muir

Sooke Journey

Poirier Edward Milne

Saseenos

Hans Helgesen

Happy Valley

Wishart Dunsmuir

Sangster

Royal Bay Colwood

Crystal View

John Stubbs (K-8)

Millstream

Lakewood

David Cameron Spencer Belmont

Savory

Ruth King

Willway

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 4

Capital Regional District CANADACANADA U.S.A.U.S.A. Administrative Boundaries

Southern Gulf Islands Electoral Area

Capital Region Municipalities

City of Victoria District of Oak Bay District of Saanich Town of Sidney Township of Esquimalt Town of View Royal

Salt Spring Island District of Central Saanich City of Colwood Electoral Area District of North Saanich District of Highlands City of Langford District of Metchosin District of Sooke

Unincorporated Areas

District Juan de Fuca Electoral Area of North Saanich Salt Spring Island Electoral Area Town of Sidney Southern Gulf Islands Electoral Area School District 79 First Nation Reserves

Juan de Fuca Electoral Area BRITISHBRITISH District Willis Point of Central COLUMBIACOLUMBIA Saanich VancouverVancouver IslandIsland Juan de Fuca Canada Electoral Area School District 63 WashingtonWashington StateState U.S.A.

District of School District 62 (Sooke) Highlands

District Westshore of Saanich Town Zone of View Royal School District 61 WASHINGTONWASHINGTON City of Langford City of District Colwood Township of of Oak Bay Esquimalt City of Victoria Sooke Juan de Fuca Please visit us on-line for more information: District Electoral Area CANADA Zone of Sooke Chatham Islands http:/ / www.crd.bc.ca | [email protected] U.S.A. District of U.S.A. Metchosin 1:350,000 Juan de Fuca Electoral Area Kilometres East Sooke 0 2.5 5 10 15 . Projection: Universal Transverse Mercator. Zone 10, North. North American Datum. SCHOOL DISTRICT 62

(SOOKE) IN CONTEXT DISCLAIMER Important This map is for general information purposes only. The Capital Regional The base map is from the The eastern boundary (shown in blue) is notional. Project 1845 District (CRD) makes no representations or warranties regarding the accuracy or Capital Regional District. School District 62 includes Langford, Colwood, Sooke, completeness of this map or the suitability of the map for any purpose. 2018 06 05 This map is not for navigation. The CRD will not be liable for any damage, Metchosin, Highlands and the Juan de Fuca Electoral WashingtonWashington StateState Figure 2 loss or injury resulting from the use of the map or information on the map and Area. View Royal is part of School District 61. the map may be changed by the CRD at any time.

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2. EXISTING SITUATION

2.1 COMMUNITY CONTEXT As illustrated in Figure 5, SSD is a highly dynamic area that has grown by a third over the past decade and has the capacity to continue to expand well into the future. The BC Statistics population projection shown in Figure 5 indicates that there will be 27% more people living in SSD in 2028 than in 2017, our base year for estimating future enrolment.

Figure 5: Population Projection for Sooke School District

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038

Most of the population growth will continue to be in Langford, Colwood and Sooke. There are no significant impediments to future growth in these three municipalities. For example, major new roads have been completed and there is still land available for development. There may be some constraints on development in Sooke and Colwood due to the limited availability of sewers. Nevertheless, the potential for future growth in SSD’s communities is substantial and long term.

2.2 SCHOOL CAPACITIES Figure 6 indicates that SSD’s community based schools have a total operational capacity of 9,524 spaces with 4,774 spaces in elementary schools, 2,100 spaces in middle schools and 2,650 spaces in secondary schools. The middle school total includes 275 spaces in John Stubbs Elementary-Middle. The elementary capacities include the recently added modular classrooms at Hans Helgesen, Poirier, Sangster, Sooke, Willway and Wishart. One classroom has been deducted from the capacities of the following six elementary schools where the StrongStart

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 8

program occupies a classroom: Colwood, Hans Helegsen, John Muir, Millstream, Ruth King and Willway.

Figure 6: SSD School Capacities

Grade Mod- Nominal Opera- 2017 Utiliz- Port- School Span ules Capacity tional Enrolment ation ables

Colwood K 5 9 215 198 187 94% Crystal View K 5 13 310 286 245 86% David Cameron K 5 16 385 352 353 100% 2 Hans Helegsen K 5 10 240 220 192 87% Happy Valley K 5 16 380 352 418 119% 2 John Muir K 5 9 215 198 192 97% Lakewood K 5 16 380 352 439 125% 3 Millstream K 5 9 215 198 253 128% 2 Poirier K 5 17 410 374 379 101% 2 Port Renfrew K 5 3 75 66 11 17% Ruth King K 5 13 315 286 277 97% Sangster K 5 9 220 198 239 121% Saseenos K 5 8 195 176 128 73% Savory K 5 8 190 176 193 110% 1 Sooke K 5 12 290 264 306 116% 2 Willway K 5 11 270 242 179 74% Wishart K 5 16 390 352 326 93% 1 John Stubbs K 8 33 805 759 724 95% Dunsmuir 6 8 24 600 600 745 124% 13 Journey 6 8 23 575 575 516 90% 1 Spencer 6 8 26 650 650 752 116% 7 Edward Milne 9 12 26 650 650 593 91% 3 Belmont 9 12 48 1,200 1,200 1,235 103% 2 Royal Bay 9 12 56 800 800 979 122% 10 SSD Totals K 12 431 9,975 9,524 9,861 104% 51 Elementary K 5 217 5,225 4,774 4,817 101% 15 Middle 6 8 84 2,100 2,100 2,237 107% 21 Secondary 9 12 130 2,650 2,650 2,807 106% 15

The following notes explain the each of the columns in Figure 6: Grade Span: K is kindergarten and the numbers refer to the grades. Modules: The total number of classrooms in elementary schools, and the equivalent in middle and secondary schools. Nominal Capacity: MoE applies a ‘nominal’ capacity of 25 for all classrooms except 20 students to classrooms designated for kindergarten.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 9

Operational: The operational capacity is based on average class sizes of 25 for Grades 4-12, 21 for Grades 1-3 and 19 for kindergarten. We have calculated the operational capacities of K-5 elementary schools by multiplying the number of modules by 25 and then multiplying the total by 88% ((19+63+50)/150). 2017 Enrolment: The enrolment in September 2017 not including International students. Utilization: Capacity utilization of the school as of 2017 is calculated by dividing the enrolment by the operational capacity. Portables: The number of portable classrooms at each school as of June 2018. Figure 7 outlines the operational capacities for K-5 elementary schools based on the number of modules (classrooms). When the number of modules are divisible by six, the school has an equal distribution of classes per grade.

Figure 7: Operational Capacities of K-5 Schools

Modules Operational Modules Operational Modules Operational

7 154 13 286 19 418

8 176 14 308 20 440

9 198 15 330 21 462

10 220 16 352 22 484

11 242 17 374 23 506

12 264 18 396 24 528

We have shown the current 2018 capacity of Royal Bay Secondary as 800 spaces. We assume that the approved 600-space addition is completed in our analysis of future capacity utilization (the current capacity of 800 spaces will increase to 1,400 spaces). For both educational and operational reasons, SSD prefers schools within the following optimal operational capacity ranges: Secondary schools of 900-1,200 spaces — four grades (Grade 9 to 12) with nine to twelve classes per grade. Smaller schools are not able to offer a full range of options. Middle schools of 450-600 spaces — three grades (Grade 6 to 8) with six to eight classes per grade. Smaller school are less efficient. Elementary schools of 264-396 spaces — six grades (Kindergarten to Grade 5) with two or three classes per grade. An elementary school with three classes per grade and an operational capacity of 396 students is perhaps an ideal size. Smaller elementary schools are less efficient to operate. Schools that are somewhat larger than the specified maximum optimum capacities are acceptable. For example, Royal Bay Secondary will be 1,400 spaces after the approved addition is completed.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 10

2.3 TEMPORARY ACCOMMODATION As indicated in Figure 6, one of the primary strategies SSD is using to cope with overcrowding has been to install 51 portable classrooms at 14 schools. Until the proposed new schools are implemented, SSD will continue to require many portable classrooms. The provision of this temporary accommodation is a major financial challenge since the costs associated with portable classrooms is funded from SSD’s operating budget.

2.4 PHYSICAL CONDITION OF SCHOOL FACILITIES The building condition ratings presented in Figure 8 characterizes the condition of each SSD school facility in terms of the need to invest in upgrading or replacement over the next several years. The goal is to make the necessary investments to bring all schools to modern standards of health, safety, energy efficiency and functionality. The schools listed in Figure 8 are organized into four groups according to relative building condition: excellent, good, adequate and poor. The seven schools rated as ‘excellent’ are new or nearly new and not likely to require upgrading over the next several years. Similarly, the five schools characterized as being in ‘good’ condition are unlikely to require significant investment in upgrading or functional renovations beyond routine maintenance. The six school facilities characterized as ‘adequate’ have considerable useful life remaining, but will require modernization. SSD can expect to invest in upgrading these schools over the next several years. The six schools with ‘poor’ building condition ratings likely require replacement, although detailed technical assessments would be required to confirm this preliminary conclusion. SSD’s last capital plan proposed replacement for Sooke and Millstream. One of the key challenges to SSD will be to replace or otherwise deal with the six schools with building condition rated as ‘poor’. The following notes explain the each of the columns in Figure 8: Subjective Condition Assessment: An assessment by SSD facilities personnel of the overall condition of the building considering FCI (Facility Condition Index), seismic issues and other factors. Potential to Expand Site: An assessment by SSD facilities personnel of how readily the school could be physically expanded. Facility Condition Index (FCI): VFA Canada’s March 2018 rating. FCI is calculated by dividing the cost to remedy maintenance deficiencies by the replacement value of the facility. Larger values indicate more deficient buildings. Year Built: The year the main portion of the school was constructed. Site Area: The area of the school site in hectares. Floor Area: The gross floor area of the facility in square metres.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 11

Figure 8: Building Condition of SSD Schools

Subjective Potential Facility Year Site Floor School Condition to Expand Condition Notes Built Area Area Assessment Site Index

Belmont Excellent Good 0.00 2016 4.2 11548 Royal Bay Excellent Good 0.00 2016 6.3 12145 More area being acquired John Stubbs Excellent Good 0.02 2008 5.3 7160 Happy Valley Excellent Poor 0.05 2006 1.7 2933 Crystal View Excellent Poor 0.05 2004 2.0 2563 Poirier Excellent Good 0.19 2001 3.5 3165 Colwood Excellent Good 0.09 2002 3.6 2403 Excluding Colwood Annex Journey Good Adequate 0.06 1993 11.3 6208 Lakewood Good Poor 0.14 1994 1.8 3339 David Cameron Good Adequate 0.15 1995 2.6 3932 Edward Milne Good Adequate 0.19 1996 4.6 8981 Proposed envelope upgrade Hans Helegsen Good Adequate 0.23 1992 3.0 2369 Dunsmuir Adequate Poor 0.26 1965 3.7 7408 Recent upgrades John Muir Adequate Adequate 0.30 1970 2.0 2262 Wishart Adequate Good 0.35 1971 2.9 3538 Spencer Adequate Poor 0.36 1977 4.5 8000 Ruth King Adequate Good 0.36 1948 2.8 4009 Approved envelope upgrade Willway Adequate Good 0.40 1977 2.7 2757 Proposed seismic upgrade Savory Poor Poor 0.38 1966 2.0 2028 Port Renfrew Poor Good 0.33 1970 2.3 1345 Sangster Poor Poor 0.33 1958 1.7 1975 Saseenos Poor Poor 0.48 1959 1.8 2145 Sooke Poor Good 0.52 1959 2.7 2639 Proposed replacement Millstream Poor Poor 0.53 1959 2.1 2218 Proposed replacement Totals/Averages 6 Poor 9 Poor 0.24 1983 81.1 107071

We have not included assessments of seismic risk as a part of this analysis since the Province is currently re-assessing the seismic upgrading of public buildings. In addition, SSD has upgraded most buildings with the highest seismic risk designations. SSD facilities personnel considered the remaining seismic mitigation projects when assigning the overall subjective condition assessment.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 12

3. ENROLMENT FORECAST

3.1 APPROACH TO ENROLMENT FORECASTS SSD receives annual updated enrolment forecasts for each school from Baragar Systems. Baragar’s base 15-year projection uses previous enrolments, childcare credit data, and other relevant information to generate enrolment projections that Baragar characterizes as ‘without local knowledge’. For the 2018 Update, we used the latest Baragar projections that were based on actual enrolments from September 2017 and provided annual estimates of enrolment for each school to 2032. We generated charts for each school showing Baragar’s base projection as well as forecasts from the 2010 Update and the 2016 Update. We also estimated the number of students from new residential developments that would be attending each school. We then created new forecasts building on the Baragar base projection and reviewed those forecasts with SSD officials before determining the new best enrolment forecasts for each school. The new best enrolment forecasts for each SSD school are presented in charts in Appendix A and summarized in a table in Appendix B. The Appendix A charts indicate the best enrolment forecasts with a red line labelled ‘Adjusted’. The enrolment forecasts are headcounts for fully funded K-12 students. They do not include international students. Our objective in developing these enrolment forecasts was to be as accurate as possible. We did not introduce any contingencies — our enrolment forecasts are as likely to prove to be too high as too low. We tried not to be influenced by capacity limitations. Our forecasts estimate the number of students who live in the catchment area of each school. In many cases, SSD officials will manage enrolment demand by shifting students to nearby schools as well as by adding portable classrooms to temporarily add capacity to schools in growth areas.

3.2 FUTURE RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT As summarized in Figure 9, we estimate that approximately 10,800 new housing units will be built in SSD municipalities over the next eleven years. We obtained these estimates in consultation with planners in Langford, Colwood and Sooke. Our estimates for Highlands, Metchosin and the Juan de Fuca Electoral Area were based on a continuation of the past. In Figure 9, ‘SD’ is single detached, ‘TH’ is townhouse and ‘AP’ is apartment. About 40% of the anticipated new housing will be single detached houses with 24% as townhouse units and 36% apartments. Most new housing in Sooke, Highlands, Metchosin and Juan de Fuca will be single detached, while apartments will be the dominant housing type in Colwood and Langford. We have listed individual developments with more than 300 units. All other developments are included in the ‘other’ category. The annual average number of units is shown in blue. All estimates have been rounded to the nearest ten.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 13

The estimates for Sooke could be higher if the proposed sewer expansion is approved soon. The estimates for Colwood are higher than historic averaged due primarily to accelerated implementation of Royal Bay.

Figure 9: Summary of Estimated Future Housing Units to 2028

Municipality Development Total SD TH AP Langford Bear/Skirt Mountain 1,150 430 120 600 Westhills 1,200 450 500 250 Other 3,690 1,220 700 1,770 Total, Langford 6,040 2,100 1,320 2,620 Annual average 549 191 120 238 Colwood Royal Bay 950 570 380 Colwood Corners 380 380 Nob Hill 380 380 Other 590 130 120 340 Total, Colwood 2,300 700 500 1,100 Annual average 209 64 45 100 Sooke Sunriver 300 200 100 Other 1,400 750 500 150 Total, Sooke 1,700 950 600 150 Annual average 155 86 55 14 Other Highlands 170 120 50 Metchosin 100 100 Juan de Fuca 490 330 90 70 Total, Other 760 550 140 70 Annual average 69 50 13 6 Total SSD Total, SSD 10,800 4,300 2,560 3,940 Annual average 982 391 233 358

Figure 10 compares the average number of housing starts over the past eleven years with the average annual number of housing units estimated over the next eleven years. The future estimates resemble the past except that the Langford forecast is slightly less than the past, while the forecast for Colwood is higher than the past.

Figure 10: Average Housing Units Over Eleven Years

Area Past Future Langford 602 549 Colwood 125 209 Sooke 146 155 Other 68 69 Total SSD 942 982

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 14

Our estimate of future housing units is in keeping with growth over the past. In fact, Figure 11 illustrates an acceleration of housing starts over the past few years. Furthermore, while we are not sure of the pace of development over the next decade, the municipalities within SSD have the capacity to accommodate significant growth, and much of the future population growth in the Capital Regional District will occur in Langford, Colwood and Sooke.

Figure 11: Past Housing Starts

1,600

1,400 Total 1,200 Langford 1,000

800 Colwood

600 Sooke 400

200 Other

0 2007 2012 2017

Figure 12 shows the locations of the major residential developments in the Westshore Zone. Note that there is considerable new housing being built in the areas outside the identified major developments, especially in Langford (the ‘other’ category in Langford and Colwood accounts for more than half of the total estimated number of units for the two municipalities). Also, the density is increasing in many existing mature neighbourhoods due to extensive infill development. Figure 12 also shows a notional division of the Westshore into five zones that we reference later in the formulation of a plan for new schools in the area.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 15

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Facilities Happy Valley Elementary T Trail R H AN D. Regional S Park k Y IN R (RESTRICTED AREA) Park GOLDSTREAM LAND DIST. GTO ee N Cr C GH GATE MILLINGTON PL. rail H U . T L O T WO U E R

rail O DANBY PL. Chow-Nicoll rail zie O B B HANBURYPL D S T n L HA o e C IL D K C W G W Mc

H Park n N. UGG KI ra N ra A E L PL S TRANS 15 PL . or PRIOR ig STONEHAVEN Transportation Y S i John Muir Elementary LYNBURNE PL. b PASSAGE 20 gflo fl T . AN . o ea O T RIVERS R w ON R S w

C y o LAKE

N e T I

. O CROSSING V ER RD INDUSTRIAL WAY r Wolf e E G N ATUR A r N E am

O RIVER RO P JACK L DEER A D NIN P R Hill P N O L. K E MEADOW Cree

. R CK B PL. Bell HIGHLA B T GOLDSTREAM LE HAN DIST. OF HIGHLANDS k 1 16 N . D Y Belmont Secondary T k Ecole John Stubbs U A PROVINCIAL PARK . R G . W DIST. R OF LANGFORD S LAKE S

L C T M Q ST Speedway ME O R KINGBIRD DR. T L

P s S G E PK N . CK o re rail T. E h w BEAR MOUNTAIN BEARSPAW T O u U ENHILL N t W L GRE THETIS ek il GA et T A C a G B e r G RISE O S PLATEAU IL A T R r

2 17 A MOUNTAIN COURSE E N E is Edward Milne Secondary R H D URM Lakewood Elementary U A U I W

T GO N N S AR KESTREL P N CT Th

O L A E P R R E O H RID P Arbu Goldstream GE O E U A . NICKL T E P TRUDIE L . T L D S

ALTON R L U PINTAIL O . . P S e Kapoor r’s T E . A IS O T T K P A t L R R . BE R i LN. G

H s PA

S o L IG R R A S S Y Lake THETIS LAKE N N W

O ISLAND V B A PL. Millstream E Galloping T 1. Belmont Secondary N W Island Golf RIDGE L Trai Lake E P A A .

A o N N G E L L ME

FALLS H N N B O U A RASO P A AD

ect P R RK H L W N TI L Centre A LARABIE W H

E L A L R A C REGIONAL PARK sp PL. G T O GA L E I N F P N Y Y CT. Goose N O D ET N OL D OR o VI R G I l HY Bear/Skirt Mountain E E E Y LAKE A CT. RI CT W R c Reserve r N M . AVE. T W

C R DR. N E A

Tunnel Riverside P HARRIER P T ra SPI E DIE B OL T ELL G AM L. ID LLI Setchfield Park Y . Y Trail L All Fun LE 3 18 D R TH . J CORALE P il A u

Royal Bay Secondary Millstream Elementary L Trillium E E A

W S G 3. Royal Bay Secondary R P CL. RIDG E N PLAYE E . W S r ROCKHAMPTON CL I O N E Rec. Par RIDGEVIEW RESERVOIR k

R R Trail EW E 22 E .

K N H G

CO PH a E Y E h e H L AN P K FLIC PS RISE Provincial WOODHAMPTON RISE P Y S T A u S SPARROW OYL Y C K M TS

O C M H P P IST S JAM P E A H g iv D Y I IE O H M L M S O B A L E K I . R M T V . . B h IS P N A A

N . A Bear Mountain AR L A RENART ED E I . V A . R E R IN E T N A A M CO n P L E E N . V D N I

T Y I M E L LAKE IDA ANNE A E L A P V E Y . G W L R O E LL L L R E C E O .

R A Y A A T

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4. Westshore Centre for Learning E

t E D

C CR N D .

D . K A V FRANCIS VI K L . L IR S M ND

G S K Lake Ida ELROY A u B L -

N P H R H R Miniskirt Y A IG E T N

ra E W S . H EW L 18

L S 4 19 o BE C N E RIVERSIDE b . A G D A VE T. R L

. H BICKERTON T IS

L . Anne Pk. r Westshore Centre for Learning & Training Y Ecole Poirier Elementary - R D l S A D . E d A W L AN R L A . I FE T Ld N

N L Y O ROYAL S 17 P A L DR. LM CT. P . W s A E A G L IM DISTRICT I IC QU A

t A H N P SHAW S K L AT G H KI PL.E r LV I P LIF R H H DISTRICT e R T IR D E HIGH PL. TREANOR DORVAL THETIS LAKE A C P UM a IM E CAMLI C o TRANS P . T RESERVOIR Park R O ON R N m Ar O E K 20 T T H S C FOREST PL. S C O . Y W F E C NT C TO T. W B Thetis Hts. R E 5. Westshore Colwood Campus L SCHOOL DIST. 61 IE Sooke Hills LAND R b S O . E W Y R MAG A V

i N O U . R E V . v I EN A E D C utus C E S V Y R O 0 1 LAND e OD A

C E r Centre L N SCHOOL DIST. 62 E S a T G O L U T. K L

LA A T A . il L D DR

L D C WYN A Empress H T CT K L E AL HA EVERGRE V E SUNSET O a V F

R . E U W .

S D G R I HA L Golds D C KE c K A RABA T L PP D .

L G E A N L GLACIER E

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L Y

t I O A . Y

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o E Florence A PL F M PS P 28 O N . s N

E TRANS GON o ISTA N R N OG Lake Shop 22 N Y A V R t N E E D ID BE

G K Y O ESS Cedarvale A RIDG HAAGENSEN C R NORQUA NE M L a t gh IN A WA L R L S . O S S . M S C

L UN Y p D H PA C L Y R K R R. O S S L P C VA RD LAKE l N D L Six Mile PRICE . O E L E 14 IL I

HILL B U

R C D r U D RD L A N c Savory CT. Parson’s Bridge Y E a L N CAVALCAD B LA ELBA A I O N N K R M W C A IO E B 1 B A IA Park D 11. Crystal View Elementary U Goldstream A . Sea to Sea T T

M CITA LN L R T PL. E R V E A E D N

A 29 N A Park TER. E P IO O

IN K SE A 25 B N K . Tr

S Amy Pond D S 23 L P D N E T YAL

E O L L S 16 H N P Y EA E EC . D Reg. Wilderness L E L SEAHAVE

R P R A H KF n R R A M A I

C . Y . A E C T IN R R R Park H RBI IE i L A T LD R

26 W RO V DAYMEER T A A T A G

R Y O O N K A COUNTRY TER. T BAY . T L H IN N T WO

R IN A N O G h

R L MA Y R L 13. Hans Helgesen Elementary (not shown) E T R W L S F E TON A er AR M - E D Harlequin E I S P E RLIS P N N . S ar K W W Leigh SKOGST L

. E P A E O H O . E

L HER E k A D S GOLDSTONE L IX K . A . ORANGE T W M LL T IT K R E L F C A P PL. G M CAPSTONE OM A

S P W AF RAINVILLE H R HTS. MYR

Park R N A 26 Park N

BLOSSOM L I D R E JODRELL SELWYN P IL

E WES L H E PL. ILLPOND TER

V O N C C T E E GUYTO R OFT E A MCKE

K T P NUGG T D CR. R O T W 27 . 9 24 E R M S 26 W R O Z L R AK V HIGHWA E 21 R E C

Spencer Middle A UD C Savory Elementary E TER.

E AY . Y A S RIGH L Goldstream Village T PL. M R D 27 HEL T N D G I N YC R A IC T

C U U Millstream 17 E N E N E S 9 S G . A S E T L R SELWYN S PL. A R PL. L R A AL N 14. Happy Valley Elementary ng RD G E La ford N RA

G H I T LA T A T FAC ST C Ed S C . L 3 GOLDEN IO W . HTS. A T N D T IN C P A N R E N RY L CL. Park O AVE E D D . IE R. E i E Lake Park G D TH R V W SPIKE x E TE N LN PATERSON D an R & o A I P T OMA CL N R MILLW D S ON GA W b E N S e rook HOFFMA E E S TAL E R LANGFO T D n RD N 4 s W PL. M SSE T G L PEDE E t N 30 A S b . E Y S T R IN . E ro . SELICA K S IN T T S PT. 11 R Y 10 ok P R W

A L C E IT T A k. I G E D e N I W V A IN n MA I N R JUAN DE FUCA L N . STOCKEY LAKE 12 E. 9 R N D R C W r N R S HO AVE. SI WINDMA LN. H P E D E IL LA R A E W PL. KE . a . 16. John Stubbs Elementary-Middle A D O City 8 T NB D 10 25 DE R V F Y i POW A A N O E Colwood Elementary O D Y S T O SMART Sooke Elementary A l K COSTI N S ARBOUR P M N E K ATKINS HUMPBACK ER T R 27 R Shelby R R IT B Hall A L R S E U Selica O T Y T LN. D L IS. Y N R E A T B RO F U 28 O G L T A U O L E T R P M P E LA Park B 7 E B Q C H R Park R E S W N E O N R N N N Nob Hill Y E C E RESERVOIR IS A U Juan de Fuca McCARTHY D IC K Langford L H I RD O C L L Y M N OD F IS W IW . LIND S L T. K JORONO E O B E O S K R N Y R S LAKEPOI IN L . Cen. A R P O T IL IS. ESTHILLS DR. E INGER I estside Instaprint D 24 A Recreation Centre A L U A BR B N IL WHITEHEAD A N 17. Lakewood Elementary R E A A W C COLWOO Baseball A R T Sea to Sea A N O Y G M A W Park and Ride R PL. O B URB N A H Park and . M WEST SHORE PKF 10 C A VA T GR TI R N IL Diamonds RE VE. E A L N D N 5 Gamble A O Regional S IS Tennis LANGFORDAN C L V I SH T WA Leigh Road e IS C Ride 11 26 R n A L D R 6 K CR YMCA te R W D Park D.N.D. Crystal View Elementary Willway Elementary W KINGSW n P Courts RD. U n K Regional Park Reserve I ATE Park . N P ia IL GOL R N EE F . . Y YWC M L O a l E. R FA A DST D D R rk V M I R R Mount K P 9 8 A R V EA P R R D E L E . L U . W Y E Priory Hosp. M . AL Bear Mountain Arena W I A . SHEILDS LAKE 18. Millstream Elementary C M D W AY R. A H M L Westhills WATERVIEW L E AMBLE RD. G A N A L Y CARTMEL Residential Care LANGFORD I V . F Braden CL. E TIO O ALDWYN G ESIA CLEARWATER IL E HENRY . TA R E Lawn Bowling . LAKE RD. RT N L ENG PL. S D REVILO D 4 A 18 D A R I Club R Irwin Pond R W A L VEColwood Velodrome WY PL. T E N . K D E House GRASS EE Park . K R D N N AINLINE R S S E C KS E&N Rail . R Colwood A ID U P P B 12 M 27 A 21. Ruth King Elementary E T S OOD E David Cameron Elementary Wishart Elementary T T ROYAL COLW LAKE GROB Trail R IP L O Colwood S T A I S EE N COLWOOD Corners Mt. McDonald R B H LEIL O . L OEING K P City Centre Par IA O I RUN CT. k Plaza R

N TONOV S R LANGFORD P R LAKE C D

D A H PB I H A Corners LAKEWOOD PL. R N ALICIA 406 O D A E E R G 8 O A ALDEA GATE O L PARKWAY R A M O 29 R 12 N A H Eagle Ridge Arena O C E A S VIE B O I G N C A R K . GLENVI I M F O 2 N W R RD I L JENKINS D D.N.D. - Pacific Y IE K E DR. . R D L . B N E 19 SOOKE V N U S O E R 22. Sangster Elementary C E ALDEANE AVE

E AVE. E Activity Centre A E 1 I E H L D. R BLV O T Sea to Sea I T M D S . E R E T H P N E VIEW REX D E DR E M R E A W RD NE ROSEB O EW S T SARAH T E . O AN A R H S RL R K L E T A B R R . West Shore rdens E D . A C M Hatley Memorial Ga J B RIVER RD. A . S OGlen G N R O S M D R E D N L LE T D Regional Park Reserve Raven Wood D H O Town Centre E L 20 O E O U . HULL A L O R N S R R COLWO G S Lake C SELMAR N A A M L H V E B K H R A A KUPER N L RE 24. Savory Elementary AVE. IL 30 R N k U C B O PROPERTY E . Park L LI H O RD DR LYNN O T E T E KATH E H NN NELLIE R Estates LE L Westhills C S LIO N LER R E K GLENCAIRN E C L T A C YEW C N R N GATE T EB A Glen Lake T ETTE U G H D DR. E U 3 S R Sooke B E ACACI G A D GLEN LA C West Shore O L R Peace Par E W E N N R C E P OR K N F L K LAKE E S A A WATERLILY E A 21 A E Y G E MER T M A R G Skatepark E C E I N L T I PT. D A L CO Y L JA V V G R L E JA V EL D D E IU S P TER Her ADY ARO ANE E S RD K E N D A E I E N H RCH m R R O Trap Mtn. R L C WELLESLEN . N R S R E T V D 26. Willway Elementary ) LAND DISTRICT A W O Williams Y A . GLEN G ZEALOU N NT M OLD O A E A ILLO NorthAVE. ColwoodS S G C LE P E P O T. D Gor T PL. M . O R . don O N I U E L AD L E W F W ER T R 711 M Galloping L D E RD C S P T RENFREW O N NNA O M Park I Y M R POR AI A R Mount E R O K K EV V US C R I IC HEASLIP ELLY A OLLEGE. C L N U N AMP P BR B Y Y LW S C LAKE LE G

SBO IL IC A L O N 31 O E 4 LIA E Goose R B C R A T EN DR. NO I . G P D L H G IN R Wells A L LAKE DIST. 62 ITY M NE R S G C . A D S

TR ID E A ALT LAND DISTRICT M O N TO L R BRIT R UN River O M C N C Y T A T D

Mountain O DONOVAN IN E D L Park Mount Wells G U VALLEY TA E 16 B D . S N Hatley I 27. Wishart Elementary H IN N DR. Trail G E 352 Glen Cove Y H O 5 D R C IS Fishers U IN T W T FI IM R D TR R

IT SCHOO P D D A E E Y COLLEGE PACI N FLANNAGAN IN Park E D Park S N A ON RI Field A R RD. N E N L. DR. B W R . S H THETIS PBACK N R R

O P T L L

O 22 A West Langford T F O V Ragged Mtn. R ANKA E Colwood FORT RO E M KANACA R M GATE

R R H U

R A . R P E A R L E D D ADDLE V O O H G . . HUM Regional GOLDSTREAM A A Y W Y E

ESQU E E P 10 D N N IL A . M I G T B T H Hatley E Chan Hills e G M PA S ILONA TH U E TC H R 543 TE id RUN S O L E T ID EL EM S . L RL Y C R R N CRES . E Y

L - R Fort Rodd Hill IO H SOOKE POTHOLES H Park VOLM IS R Castle L E O N I Y M M R N A Hatley Park J E A O PL. K A O ID A S W D K Provincial US L L A L L

Sooke G IL E IA IN W P N D Y R National Historic I N REGIONAL PARK G V 26 C R E LE . O D L E W AN B RD. E A I PAC E Park E A A ROYAL ROADS

A T. P T

C T G L Colwood . D L . L N R N . M Y C IS R . Reserve L Park RODD IN L D A R G 25 R 23 AR

L D R C L P A T D O A .

H N Creek UNIVERSITY E N

D L U Reginald A F H A C E N LANGH

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L T A E E H 27 I L I Park G U T

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A E L R Potholes A O . H L E RD. P T A ANO E CK C E L HALLSOR .

T N H S G . RC R

O . I A R

A L . S S D O M LL E V RE W Y

O L. R C L N E R R IT IT P

L I S R Ernhill E W C A R D R PL W R L E L R Pacific Rim P E . Y Y K R . S

A K E

RD N R D LO E

A E IL X P C A N T E V

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I A P R WALFRED R O DG R N L G C O N FISGARD IS. KALAI T D Park B K U U

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Q A A L E O W G A A BLUE W R E R A

UA T BONEYARD N C U O D N R N N L ER T E S . M Q Regional PENWOOD C H N M O E P A Y UN L W MALLOW D IL O L O S ID N NWOOD LN National Park A N E L A . E IS R L T D E A JE W L E SPRUCE . P . P P Q

(C A S 24 L O u I W L G D x A B L Y Bluff Mountain LAKE L Comm. Hallton M CT. E R L 31 .

E Y V L F S D

S D. A R PENINSUL A T a N AIRE LNDG. L D O E W D 2. SOLIT LA RD. G M Terrahue Park IE

U AL IR E D IN H D OR W O B Matilda Park

TH R L O U R U OR O D O 3 3. SUMMERSTONE RUN CO R W P TS R . D 1 RD. LE M A F R R E O Esquimalt

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M L A O A Y . Bilsto A O W Colwood W H D A AN

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R H H R LL B R A E IS ET D N N T

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National Park PROVINCIAL PARK O k T STARLING PL. A IP A C e Z R RD A G S

R E C IA Z . T T LL L B 34 I B L N OBERLAC E M N R PL. R R E D W IC L C A A Y O E N A . L A O IR A I Park ISLAND RD. D U Karger O IE R M LAGOON RD. T R L N . B DR R

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R W T S L LN N O A I 35 S Y L Y . N E O U IR M E A LAKE D E . O R 3 O A W RoyalE L Bay H A R J G E O

INDIAN RESERVE Y R SUN GROV C SW L . E T C E . D N I K DR T O P DR. M E D E DELTAN R Perimeter L R D R K

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GDNS. OR BON L Havenwood U E K ANCONA E

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A P IA A A R 507 40 U . VISTA E AVE. A N

H N T B S R K Regional Park Reserve G L P E RN. IZ C ND Park . T Centre GUENTER L C W R E . T I PL. IC D A D D I ASHBURY O A P S G A O R H R PORT I M D R R N O R WESTSHORE CE C O . - A E Mtn. N E AVE. S N RE B O V P WHIMFIELD T E R T G L PL. BELS K K Y

R C . O A L N COLWOODTE O P EN R 36 S GOLDSPUR L R L

C R E A DE ID R E . C D R A Y L D O HA L IS . A KESTREL LOMA LINDA DR. R NI S

IS SO T T D Royal E E A O R D H

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R R m T D T K S A k Y A O i . D PALM T DR RD. L I R

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Park N E U Buck Willing . RESIDENTIAL WILD BERRY A N IN South Langford P H B C 35

N PACIFIC GATEWAY 41 R O . Q O CHE A H

S CENTREMONTBEND IC W L Park R T G K

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RID Park R R Perimeter WA D D K LD G D - VETERANS BUNKER A

L Sea to Sea Hill T WI IL E N C N N E A E Y FRE Y R R A R C W DISTRICTV RRY DR. W W LING L L Park 3 Oceanpark . I T O IL P E LA N D Y D Creek E OSPREY A S E A D O R L . D 321 R A Y B L S A . R D

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T E 2 V T S T EL N 8 IL E O D TH ANN A T R S A LAND Z K I D P M R C ELIZABE D H . L E Regional Park Reserve P M C . N O 300 O IS O . D N R RI O T E D. ROAD P I LN. N DG S . Elizabeth Ann TW O LA R 20 LN. V IR R A DEVELOPMENT D E POND S M F D A H L L C D L H IS N L D A M . M . . Park O D B R IN . TTE N RY R R U C B N N SO WIN O O O A D TE POR O

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M LAKE E . LAND 40 FFE A L Camp LAND I IC PRO Ayum Figure 12 L T P . C . S L CHA 26 N L P P F R B H Y N Barnard E P RIA E 43 LISTER OF R E E .

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G A L De W . A DD C C . E L W . R Hill LEEFIELD A K S G M . Park L 183 K

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A I POLYMED s . R n E 47 M PL. . T C . e Single 40 N S IV D B R S W i E n D I H R R V R T PL. n . A R S E O O I D W D W itty’s D

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D W R R R ITTE L O GOO illm D 52 R RIDGE E W C SUNNY KANGAROO L 42 D IN O

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T D R M D Y DE MAMIEL . W Y PENINSULA 249 R U 6 D 1 SHORES R A BLANCHARD RD. G R PL. N U . . O D D N H Park and Ride B R L S E A R CREEK L HUTCHINSON R E C C D R RD.

X T FRENCH RD. E N T e D Broom Hill N 6 H N D IN E N G C P . E 4 A D. 23 D E E E IS FA E L H

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A MA OKEO SW D A INLINE L 21 66 R L E RD. R R M Park Park . RD. O L R E S IN Y .

S SLEMKO RD. E T E T R DR R . e . W D . GOODMERE A G Gillespi D

V B LIB N Eleanor Mann R A R RD. G O E Y A A E O R LN R RO R U

V H L C E P R p . M C W N IGHT E

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3.3 YIELD FACTORS As outlined in Figure 13, we estimate that 3,671 SSD students will be living in new housing by 2028. The estimated number of housing units is drawn from Figure 9. Yield factors are the number of SSD students (K-12) that come from specific housing types. These yield factors do not include students at private schools. The yield rates assigned to each development in Figure 13 range from 0.42 to 0.55 for single detached houses, 0.32 to 0.40 for townhouses, and 0.12 to 0.24 for apartments. The yield rates assigned were based on information from several sources, including a study of specific existing housing areas in SSD documented in the 2010 and 2007 Updates.

Figure 13: Estimated Number of SSD Students Living in New Housing

Housing Units Yield Rate Estimated Students Development SD TH AP SD TH AP SD TH AP Total Bear/Skirt Mountain 430 120 600 0.42 0.32 0.15 181 38 90 309 Westhills 450 500 250 0.50 0.37 0.18 225 185 45 455 Other, Langford 1,220 700 1,770 0.48 0.38 0.15 586 266 266 1,118 Royal Bay 570 380 0.46 0.35 262 133 395 Colwood Corners 380 0.12 46 46 Nob Hill 380 0.15 57 57 Other, Colwood 130 120 340 0.48 0.34 0.14 62 41 48 151 Sunriver 200 100 0.52 0.38 104 38 142 Other, Sooke 750 500 150 0.55 0.38 0.24 413 190 36 639 Highlands 120 50 0.50 0.38 60 19 79 Metchosin 100 0.48 48 48 Juan de Fuca 330 90 70 0.55 0.40 0.20 182 36 14 232 Total, SSD 4,300 2,560 3,940 0.49 0.37 0.15 2,123 946 602 3,671

3.4 OVERALL ENROLMENT FORECASTS The heavy blue line labelled ‘Best’ in Figure 14 shows our enrolment forecast for the combination of all SSD community based schools. The Best forecast indicates enrolment will increase by 37% from 9,861 in 2017 to 13,550 eleven years later in 2028. That is a total increase of 3,689 students or about 335 new students each year. This total number of new students is close to the 3,940 students estimated to be living in new housing as outlined in Figure 9. The other four forecasts presented in Figure 14 are: 2010 LRFP The forecast for SSD schools presented in the 2010 Update of the Long Range Facilities Plan (shown with a thinner purple line). This estimate of future enrolment is a bit higher than our current forecast, but with a similar trajectory.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 17

2016 LRFP The forecast for SSD schools presented in the 2016 Update of the Long Range Facilities Plan (shown with a thinner green line). This projection parallels our current forecast for the first few years and then tapers off slightly in the longer term. Baragar The ‘without local knowledge’ enrolment projection for all SSD schools from Baragar Systems that we refer to as ‘Baragar base’. At 2028, the cumulative impact of our adjustments to Baragar’s base projection for individual schools is to add 1,330 more students to SSD schools. MoE The Ministry of Education’s latest forecast for SSD (shown as a pink line). Note that MoE’s starting point in 2016 is a little higher than our enrolment for 2016 since the MoE includes students in alternate programs.

Figure 14: Enrolment Forecast for SSD Schools

14,000 37% 13,000

2010 LRFP 12,000 2016 LRFP 11,000 Baragar 10,000 MoE

9,000 Best

8,000 2013 2018 2023 2028

The fact that our current overall enrolment forecast is very close to the enrolment forecasts that provided the base for the 2016 and 2010 Updates to SSD’s Long Range Facilities Plan reinforces the consistency and accuracy of SSD’s overall enrolment forecasts since SSD first began to produce long range plans in 2005. Figure 15 illustrates that there will be relatively more growth in the secondary grades than in the middle and elementary grades.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 18

Figure 15: Enrolment Forecast by Level

7,000 34% 6,000

5,000

4,000 44%

3,000 36%

2,000 Elementary

Secondary 1,000

Middle 0 2013 2018 2023 2028

3.5 LONG-TERM ENROLMENT PROSPECTS Our enrolment forecasts present reasonable estimates of SSD students over the next eleven years. Focusing on the next decade is appropriate for capital and operational planning for SSD schools. However, it is likely that growth in Westshore and Sooke will continue at a similar pace for the foreseeable future, and that enrolment at SSD schools will continue to increase in the decade after 2028. We have kept this continued growth in mind when formulating the plans for future building projects.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 19

4. BASELINE CAPACITY UTILIZATION

4.1 INTRODUCTION TO CAPACITY UTILIZATION Capacity utilization is determined by dividing enrolment by the operational capacity for each school. The result is expressed as a percentage. It is important for SSD to maintain high utilization levels to reduce overall operating costs and advance the objective of having the best school facilities possible available for all students. On the other hand, schools cannot operate effectively with more students than spaces available, and using portable classrooms is a temporary solution only. We used the following utilization thresholds as targets in developing the emerging facilities plan for SSD: Overall utilization levels of 95-99% especially considering that MoE expects school districts to maintain overall utilization levels of at least 95%. Elementary and middle schools at 90-100%. Secondary schools at 95-104% since many school administrators have found that secondary schools, especially larger secondary schools, can operate satisfactorily with utilization levels that slightly exceed 100%.

4.2 BASELINE UTILIZATION ANALYSIS The Baseline Capacity Utilization Profile presented in Figure 16 shows enrolment and utilization as of 2018, 2023 and 2028. It provides a framework for testing the impact of various interventions such as new schools, expanded schools and catchment adjustments. The enrolment numbers used in the Baseline Utilization Profile are summarized in Appendix B. The operational capacities for SSD schools are summarized in Figure 6. The following notes clarify and expand on the Baseline Utilization Profile presented in Figure 16: Space shortages are shown in red when greater than 20 spaces. Capacity utilization levels are shown in red when 110% and greater. FI refers to schools with French Immersion. We have kept the capacity of Royal Bay Secondary at 800 spaces for the 2018 analysis, but increased it to 1,400 spaces for the 2023 and 2028 calculations, assuming the approved 600 space additional will be implemented soon. We have divided John Stubbs capacity into 275 middle spaces and 484 elementary spaces. We have estimated a third of the enrolment at John Stubbs to be in middle grades. We have excluded Port Renfrew Elementary from the calculation of capacity utilization for what is otherwise an essentially urban school district.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 20

Figure 16: Baseline Capacity Utilization Profile

K-12 Enrolment Surplus or Shortage Capacity Utilization School Capacity 2018 2023 2028 2018 2023 2028 2018 2023 2028 Notes John Muir 198 215 254 272 -17 -56 -74 109% 128% 137% Sooke 264 335 364 415 -71 -100 -151 127% 138% 157% A Poirier 374 402 442 482 -28 -68 -108 107% 118% 129% FI Saseenos 176 135 156 161 41 20 15 77% 89% 91% Journey 575 540 590 686 35 -15 -111 94% 103% 119% FI Edward Milne 650 584 665 748 66 -15 -98 90% 102% 115% FI Millstream 198 254 279 299 -56 -81 -101 128% 141% 151% FI B Lakewood 352 467 533 593 -115 -181 -241 133% 151% 168% Hans Helegsen 220 204 229 240 16 -9 -20 93% 104% 109% C Happy Valley 352 445 628 714 -93 -276 -362 126% 178% 203% Willway 242 192 232 283 50 10 -41 79% 96% 117% Ruth King 286 283 292 313 3 -6 -27 99% 102% 109% D David Cameron 352 385 447 536 -33 -95 -184 109% 127% 152% John Stubbs 759 783 998 1,057 -24 -239 -298 103% 131% 139% K-8 single track FI Wishart 352 329 378 396 23 -26 -44 93% 107% 113% E Sangster 198 245 249 290 -47 -51 -92 124% 126% 146% Colwood 198 183 187 204 15 11 -6 92% 94% 103% Crystal View 286 235 239 252 51 47 34 82% 84% 88% F Savory 176 200 250 274 -24 -74 -98 114% 142% 156% Spencer 650 792 929 1,043 -142 -279 -393 122% 143% 160% Dunsmuir 600 784 897 996 -184 -297 -396 131% 150% 166% Royal Bay 800 1,054 1,236 1,383 -254 164 17 132% 88% 99% Capacity 1,400 for 2023/28 Belmont 1,200 1,250 1,656 1,901 -50 -456 -701 104% 138% 158% FI SSD Totals 9,458 10,296 12,130 13,538 -838 -2,072 -3,480 109% 121% 135% Excluding Port Renfrew Elementary 4,708 5,031 5,824 6,429 -323 -1,116 -1,721 107% 124% 137% 5 new schools indicated Middle 2,100 2,377 2,749 3,077 -277 -649 -977 113% 131% 147% 1 new school plus expansions Secondary 2,650 2,888 3,557 4,032 -238 -307 -782 109% 109% 124% Capacity plus 600 for 2023/28 Sooke Zone 2,237 2,211 2,471 2,764 26 -234 -527 99% 110% 124% Excluding Port Renfrew Westshore Zone 7,221 8,085 9,659 10,774 -864 -1,838 -2,953 112% 124% 138% Capacity plus 600 for 2023/28 A-Elementary 1,012 1,087 1,216 1,330 -75 -204 -318 107% 120% 131% Excluding Port Renfrew B-Elementary 550 721 812 892 -171 -262 -342 131% 148% 162% Lakewood, Millstream C-Elementary 572 649 857 954 -77 -285 -382 113% 150% 167% Helegsen, Happy Valley D-Elementary 1,364 1,382 1,636 1,837 -18 -272 -473 101% 120% 135% Willway, King, Cameron, Stubbs E-Elementary 748 757 814 890 -9 -66 -142 101% 109% 119% Wishart, Sangster, Colwood F-Elementary 462 435 489 526 27 -27 -64 94% 106% 114% Crystal, Savory

Shortage shows as red if greater than 20 Capacity utilization shows as red if 110% or greater

Matrix Planning Associates 1845 | 2018 06 05 SSD LRFP Profiles.xlsx | Baseline

As illustrated in Figure 17, the capacity utilization of SSD schools already exceeds 100% and will increase to 135% in ten years. The anticipated increase in utilization for the secondary schools will increase by only 124% due to the pending addition of 600 spaces to Royal Bay Secondary. The largest anticipated increase in utilization is for the middle schools that escalate from 113% to 147% by 2028.

Figure 17: Baseline Capacity Utilization

150% 147%

140% 137% 135%

130% 124% 2018

120% 2023

110% 2028

100%

90% Total Secondary Elementary Middle

Figure 18 graphically illustrates that the key challenge for SSD over the next few years will be to provide nearly 3,500 spaces, distributed by level as follows: Nearly 800 additional secondary spaces, indicating the need for a new secondary school plus expansions. This shortage was reduced after deducting the 600 spaces to be added to Royal Bay Secondary. Nearly 1,000 additional middle spaces, indicating the need for a new middle school as well as expansions. More than 1,700 additional elementary spaces, indicating the need for four or five new elementary schools as well as expansions.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 22

Figure 18: Anticipated Future Space Shortages by Level

1,800 1,721

1,500

1,116 1,200 Elementary 977

900 782 Middle 649 600 Secondary

323 307 277 238 300

0 2018 2023 2028

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 23

5. EMERGING FACILITIES PLAN

5.1 UTILIZATION ANALYSIS FOR EMERGING PLAN Figure 19 presents an analysis of capacity utilization after implementing all the projects we have identified as necessary to addressing SSD’s significant anticipated space shortfall over the ten-year planning horizon. The utilization profile presented in Figure 19 began with the Baseline Utilization Profile outlined in Figure 16 and added two additional columns to track the changes in operational capacity for 2023 and 2028. The following comments clarify and expand on the Emerging Plan Utilization Profile presented in Figure 19: Space shortages are shown in red when greater than 20 spaces. Capacity utilization levels are shown in red when 110% and greater. Capacities shown in pink are new schools, in blue are expansions, in green are replacements, and capacities shown in purple are discontinued schools. The numbered notes summarize the shifting enrolments and proposed capital plans for each school. Site implications are shown in red. The notes are on the second page of Figure 19. As with the Baseline Utilization Profile, we have removed Port Renfrew Elementary from the analysis. The capital plans and other proposed interventions are shown as implemented sometime before 2023 or sometime before 2028. This simplified approach recognizes the uncertainty associated with predicting the timeframe for approvals but still serves to identify those projects with the most urgency. If all the projects outlined in the emerging plan outlined in Figure 19 were implemented by 2028, the overall capacity utilization of SSD schools would be a very healthy 98%.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 24

Figure 19: Capacity Utilization Profile for the Emerging Plan

Capacity Enrolment Surplus/Shortage Utilization School 2018 2023 2028 2023 2028 2023 2028 2023 2028 Notes John Muir 198 198 198 194 192 4 6 98% 97% 10 Sooke 264 264 396 264 375 0 21 100% 95% 9 A Poirier 374 374 374 372 372 2 2 99% 99% 8 Saseenos 176 0 0 7 New Sooke River 396 396 386 391 10 5 97% 99% 8 Journey 575 575 700 590 686 -15 14 103% 98% 5 Edward Milne 650 650 750 665 748 -15 2 102% 100% 6 Millstream 198 198 220 179 179 19 41 90% 81% 12, 22 B Lakewood 352 352 352 293 333 59 19 83% 95% 12 New North Langford 396 396 340 380 56 16 86% 96% 12 Hans Helegsen 220 220 220 209 220 11 0 95% 100% 13 C Happy Valley 352 352 352 328 344 24 8 93% 98% 13 New South Langford 396 396 320 390 76 6 81% 98% 13 Willway 242 242 242 232 233 10 9 96% 96% 16 Ruth King 286 286 286 272 283 14 3 95% 99% 16 D David Cameron 352 352 352 347 346 5 6 99% 98% 16 John Stubbs Elementary 484 484 484 475 485 9 -1 98% 100% 18 New West Langford 396 396 310 390 86 6 78% 98% 16 Wishart 352 352 352 378 346 -26 6 107% 98% 14 E Sangster 198 198 220 249 190 -51 30 126% 86% 15 Colwood 198 198 198 187 194 11 4 94% 98% New Royal Bay 264 260 4 98% 24 Crystal View 286 286 286 289 272 -3 14 101% 95% 17 F Savory 176 176 264 200 254 -24 10 114% 96% 17, 18 John Stubbs Middle 275 275 275 273 272 2 3 99% 99% 23 Spencer 650 650 700 629 703 21 -3 97% 100% 19, 20 Dunsmuir 600 600 700 577 706 23 -6 96% 101% 19, 20 New Middle 700 700 680 710 20 -10 97% 101% 11 New Secondary 800 760 40 95% 21 Royal Bay 800 1,400 1,400 1,536 1,363 -136 37 110% 97% 3, 21 Belmont 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,356 1,161 -156 39 113% 97% 3, 21 SSD Totals 9,458 12,166 13,869 12,130 13,538 36 331 100% 98% 25 Elementary 4,708 6,116 6,644 5,824 6,429 292 215 95% 97% 25 Middle 2,100 2,800 3,075 2,749 3,077 51 -2 98% 100% 25 Secondary 2,650 3,250 4,150 3,557 4,032 -307 118 109% 97% 25 Sooke Zone 2,237 2,457 2,814 2,471 2,764 -14 50 101% 98% 25 Westshore Zone 7,221 9,709 11,055 9,659 10,774 50 281 99% 97% 25

Matrix Planning Associates 1845 | 2018 06 05 SSD LRFP Profiles.xlsx | EmergingPlan | Page 1 of 2 Figure 19: Capacity Utilization Profile for the Emerging Plan

Capacity Enrolment Surplus/Shortage Utilization School 2018 2023 2028 2023 2028 2023 2028 2023 2028 Notes A-Elementary 1,012 1,232 1,364 1,216 1,330 16 34 99% 98% 25 B-Elementary 550 946 968 812 892 134 76 86% 92% 25 A C-Elementary 572 968 968 857 954 111 14 89% 99% 25 D-Elementary 1,364 1,760 1,760 1,636 1,737 124 23 93% 99% 25 E-Elementary 748 748 1,034 814 990 -66 44 109% 96% 25 F-Elementary 462 462 550 489 526 -27 24 106% 96% 25 Notes 1 Shortage shows as red if greater than 20. Capacity utilization shows as red if 110% or greater. 2 Capacities shown in pink are new schools, in blue are expansions, in green are replacements, in purple are discontinued. 3 Add 600 spaces to Royal Bay. Shift 300 students from Belmont to Royal Bay after Royal Bay expansion. 4 Port Renfrew is excluded from analysis. 5 Expand Journey by 125 spaces just before 2028. 6 Expand Edward Milne by 100 spaces about 2028. Additional property may be required for expansion. 7 Close Saseenos and sell property to interested party. Shift enrolment to new school. Surplus site. 8 New Sooke River Elementary to take surplus students from all Sooke area schools. New site already acquired. 9 Replace Sooke Elementary with a new and larger school by 2028. 10 Could require expansion in future depending on local development. 11 New middle school is fed from Spencer, Dunsmuir and Stubbs. New site already acquired (joint site with new elementary). 12 New North Langford Elementary takes surplus students from Lakewood and Millstream. Build by 2023. 13 New South Langford Elementary to take surplus students mostly from Happy Valley. Build by 2023. New site needed. 14 Surplus students from go to Sangster. 15 Surplus students from Sangster go the New Royal Bay Elementary and perhaps back to expanded replacement for Sangster. 16 New West Langford Elementary takes surplus students from Cameron, Willway, King and Stubbs. Site acquired. 17 Surplus students from Savory to go to Crystal View. 18 Replace Savory with a new and larger school by 2028. 19 New Middle is fed with students from Spencer, Dunsmuir and Stubbs. Build by 2023. New site already acquired. 20 Expand Dunsmuir and Spencer by 2028. 21 New secondary school taking surplus from Belmont and Royal Bay. By 2028. Allow for future expansion. New site needed. 22 Replace Millstream Elementary with a new and larger school. 23 John Stubbs has been separated into middle and elementary components for purposes of this analysis only. 24 New Royal Bay Elementary. Reserved site to be acquired. 25 Analysis focused on achieving close to 100% utilization at planning horizon of 2028.

Matrix Planning Associates 1845 | 2018 06 05 SSD LRFP Profiles.xlsx | EmergingPlan | Page 2 of 2

5.2 NEW SCHOOL SITES Figure 20 shows the location of five new school sites in the Westshore Zone. The following summarizes the status of these five Westshore sites as well as the new school site in the Sooke Zone: SSD owns the site for the proposed new Sooke River Elementary. It is part of the Sunriver Estates development. SSD owns the site for the proposed new West Langford Elementary as well as the proposed new Middle. The property is part of the Westhills Estates development. SSD owns the site for the proposed new North Langford Elementary. SSD owns a site at the southeast edge of the zone indicated in Figure 20 for the proposed South Langford Elementary, but is pursuing the purchase of better located sites in the middle and northwest edges of the zone indicated. If one of the better sites is purchased, SSD plans to retain the Latoria Creek site for future considerations. SSD is actively looking for a site for the proposed new secondary school in the Westshore Zone. SSD has an option to purchase a site designated as part of the Royal Bay development for the proposed new Royal Bay Elementary. We have named these new schools according to their location. Actual names for the schools will be chosen later by the Board of Education.

5.3 EMERGING PLAN FOR SECONDARY SCHOOLS The emerging plan shows the implementation of the approved 600-space expansion to Royal Bay Secondary by 2020. Edward Milne Secondary will need to be expanded by an estimated 100 spaces within the next ten years. The scope of the expansion project would include renovation to the existing facility. The school likely will require further expansion in the longer term. The most immediate requirement is to determine if additional land is needed to allow expansion, and obtain the additional adjacent property if necessary. A new secondary school will be required in the Westshore area within the next ten years. Although we show the initial capacity of this fourth secondary school as 800 spaces, we expect that it will require expansion relatively soon after it is built since it will be the focus of growth in secondary enrolment for the Westshore area. It is also likely that enrolment forecasts that are conducted a few years from now will establish the need for more than 800 spaces are required within ten years of the new school opening. If these three projects were implemented as shown in Figure 19, the four SSD secondary schools would combine for 97% utilization. In the medium term, all three existing secondary schools will need to provide temporary accommodation.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 27

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R L MA Y R L 13. Hans Helgesen Elementary (not shown) E T R W L S F E TON A er AR M - E D Harlequin E I S P E RLIS P N N . S ar K W W Leigh SKOGST L

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T rio R

5.4 EMERGING PLAN FOR MIDDLE SCHOOLS A new 700-space middle school must be provided in the Westshore area to serve surplus students from Dunsmuir, Spencer and, perhaps, John Stubbs. This proposed new middle school is a very high priority project that we show being implemented by 2023. A site has been acquired to accommodate both the new middle school as well as the proposed new West Langford Elementary. The emerging plan shows Journey Middle School being expanded by approximately125 spaces within the next ten years. It is likely that some renovation of the existing facility will be required as part of the expansion project. The emerging plan presented in Figure 19 indicates that Dunsmuir Middle should be expanded by an estimated 100 spaces and Spencer Middle by approximately 50 spaces within the next ten years. The scope of these expansion projects would include renovation of the existing schools. Once these four capital projects (one new school and three expansions) are completed, SSD will have four middle schools with 700 spaces and John Stubbs with 275 designated middle school spaces. If these four proposed capital projects were implemented as shown in Figure 19, SSD middle schools would combine to achieve full utilization by 2028. In the medium term, all existing middle schools likely will require temporary accommodation. It is possible that future planners may conclude that it is better to build a fourth middle school in the Westshore Zone rather than expanding Dunsmuir and Spencer.

5.5 EMERGING PLAN FOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS IN SOOKE A new elementary school is required in the Sooke zone (we call this Zone A in Figure 19) within the next five years. A site has been acquired for this school on the Sunriver Estates. We have called this new 396-space school Sooke River Elementary. The emerging plan also shows Sooke Elementary being replaced with a larger (396 spaces) new school within the next ten years. Depending on the scale of residential development in the area, John Muir Elementary may need to be expanded in the future, perhaps to a school in the order of 308 spaces. The emerging plan outlined in Figure 19 shows Saseenos Elementary as closed with the property sold to an interested party. Students from the current Saseenos catchment would attend the new Sooke River Elementary. This approach would avoid the expense of renovation or replacement of the existing facilities. If Saseenos is retained in the long term, the proposed new Sooke River Elementary and the replacement for Sooke Elementary would both be built with smaller capacities than indicated. Both schools are now shown at the ‘ideal’ size of 396 spaces.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 29

As outlined in previous long range plans, Port Renfrew Elementary is a unique situation due to the distance and the low enrolment. The building is in poor condition. If the two capital projects and other changes were implemented as shown in Figure 19, the Sooke area elementary schools would have 98% utilization by 2028.

5.6 EMERGING PLAN FOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS IN NORTH LANGFORD Elementary students in the area north of the Trans-Canada Highway in Langford are served by Lakewood and Millstream Elementary Schools (reference Figure 4). We call this area Zone B in Figures 16 and 19. The baseline utilization profile shown in Figure 16 indicates there will be a combined shortage of nearly 350 spaces at these two schools by 2028. The emerging plan presented in Figure 19 shows the construction of a new North Langford Elementary with 396 spaces within the next five years. This new school would take students from both Lakewood and Millstream. A new site has been acquired for the proposed new North Langford Elementary. Replace Millstream Elementary with a new school by 2028. We show this school as being replaced with a slightly larger facility since we are focused on balancing capacity utilization at 2028. In fact, the capacity Millstream would likely be at least 308 spaces given the anticipated growth in the area. As shown in Figure 8, the replacement of Millstream Elementary is SSD’s highest priority from a building condition perspective. In this context, we could consider the replacement of Millstream Elementary as a higher priority than the construction of the proposed new North Langford Elementary. We have chosen to list the new North Langford Elementary as the top priority since it will provide the most additional spaces for students north of the highway. However, Millstream Elementary should be replaced as soon as possible as well. If Millstream Elementary is replaced soon, it should be built with a capacity that anticipates future enrolment growth in the area. If the two capital projects are implemented as shown in Figure 19, the North Langford area (Zone B) elementary schools would have 92% utilization by 2028.

5.7 EMERGING PLAN FOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS IN SOUTH LANGFORD Much of the growth in South Langford (Zone C in Figure 19) is focused on Happy Valley Elementary. The emerging plan presented in Figure 19 shows the construction of a new South Langford Elementary with 396 spaces within the next five years. This new school would take surplus students from both Happy Valley and Hans Helgesen. As mentioned, SSD is pursuing the purchase of a site on or near Latoria Road for this proposed new school. The emerging plan presented in Figure 19 shows that Zone C will have full utilization by 2028. Additional growth beyond 2028 could be accommodated in the proposed new Royal Bay Elementary or by expanding either or both Hans Helgesen and the new South Langford Elementary.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 30

In addition, Hans Helgesen will need to be modernized over the next several years.

5.8 EMERGING PLAN FOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS IN WEST LANGFORD Most of the anticipated enrolment increases in West Langford (Zone D in Figures 16 and 19) will be at David Cameron. In addition, there will be considerable enrolment growth at John Stubbs which, as a single-track French Immersion school, attracts students from throughout the district. The emerging plan presented in Figure 19 proposes providing a new West Langford Elementary with 396 spaces within the next five years. This new school would take surplus students from Willway and Ruth King as well as David Cameron and John Stubbs. As mentioned, SSD owns the site for the proposed new West Langford Elementary as well as the proposed new Middle. The property is part of the Westhills Estates development. Figure 19 illustrates that, once the new West Langford Elementary is built, Zone D will have full utilization by 2028. Additional growth beyond 2028 could be accommodated by expanding David Cameron, Willway, Ruth King or the new West Langford Elementary. In addition, Willway and Ruth King will need to be modernized over the next several years.

5.9 EMERGING PLAN FOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS IN COLWOOD Most of the anticipated space shortage in Colwood schools (Royal Bay and North Colwood in Figure 12) will be at Sangster and Savory. These are Zones E and F in Figures 16 and 19. The emerging plan outlined in Figure 19 shows that the construction of a new Royal Bay Elementary will address the space shortage at Sangster, while a larger replacement facility will accommodate enrolment increases at Savory. Both capital projects will be implemented in the medium term between 2023 and 2028. By 2028, the schools in the Colwood area will have full utilization. It is likely that the capacities of both the new Royal Bay Elementary and the replacement for Savory will be larger than the 264 spaces now shown for each school, since planners will be looking well beyond 2028 to determine the best enrolment forecasts for schools in the area. We speculate that the new Royal Bay Elementary will be built at 352 spaces and the Savory replacement capacity will be set at 308 spaces. In addition, Wishart will need to be modernized over the next several years.

5.10 SUMMARY OF EMERGING FACILITIES PLAN If all the projects outlined in the emerging facilities plan documented in Figure 19 were implemented by 2028, many desired goals would have been achieved: There would be essentially full utilization (Figure 19 shows 98%) of all SSD schools, assuming the enrolment forecasts are accurate.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 31

As illustrated in Figure 21, fourteen of SSD’s 21 elementary schools would be in the optimal 264-396 space range. The building condition of all the schools would be rated Excellent or Good. Many of the schools would be new. All students would be going to school in modern facilities that are safe, healthy, comfortable and functional.

Figure 21: Capacities of Elementary Schools with Emerging Plan

John Stubbs New Sooke River Sooke New North Langford New West Langford Poirier David Cameron Wishart Happy Valley Lakewood New Colwood Crystal View Ruth King New Royal Bay Savory Willway Hans Helegsen Sangster Millstream Colwood John Muir 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

5.11 PRELIMINARY PROJECT PRIORITIES Figure 22 summarizes the twenty building projects that form the facilities plan for SSD over the next decade or so. These projects are described in the previous five sections and reflected in the capacity utilization profile for the emerging plan presented in Figure 19. Figure 22 presents the projects in order of timing: ‘Short’ for projects that should be implemented soon and certainly within the next five years. ‘Medium’ for projects that should be implemented in the next 5-10 years, but that may require land acquisition of planning activities sooner. In summary, the top building project priorities for SSD are to: Build the new middle school and the new West Langford Elementary on a site already acquired. Acquire a site and build the new South Langford Elementary.

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 32

Acquire a site for a new secondary school in Westshore. This is a very high priority due to the need to act as soon as possible to acquire a suitable site at an acceptable price. The design and construction of the school itself is not as urgent. Build the new North Langford Elementary on a site already acquired. Build the new Sooke River Elementary on a site already acquired. Replace Millstream Elementary with a new and larger school.

Figure 22: Preliminary List of Building Projects from Emerging Plan

School Type of development Property Timing

1 New Middle New school Site acquired Short 2 New West Langford Elementary New school Site acquired Short 3 New South Langford Elementary New school New site needed Short 4 New North Langford Elementary New school Site acquired Short 5 New Sooke River Elementary New school Site acquired Short 6 Millstream Elementary Replacement school Existing site Short 7 New Secondary New school New site needed Medium 8 New Royal Bay Elementary New school Designated site to be purchased Medium 9 Sooke Elementary Replacement school Existing site Medium 10 Journey Middle Addition and renovation Existing site Medium 11 Edward Milne Secondary Addition and renovation Additional property needed Medium 12 Savory Elementary Replacement school Existing site Medium 13 Sangster Elementary Replacement school Existing site Medium 14 Spencer Middle Addition and renovation Existing site Medium 15 Dunsmuir Middle Addition Existing site Medium 16 John Muir Elementary Renovation or replacement Existing site Medium 17 Willway Elementary Modernization Existing site Medium 18 Ruth King Elementary Modernization Existing site Medium 19 Wishart Elementary Modernization Existing site Medium 20 Hans Helgesen Modernization Existing site Medium

Long Range Facilities Plan, 2018 Update, Sooke School District, June 2018 33

APPENDIXA

ENROLMENT FORECASTS FOR EACH SCHOOL Port Renfrew Elementary John Muir Elementary 25 275

20 250

Adjusted Adjusted 15 225

10 200 Baragar Baragar

5 175

0 150 2013 2018 2023 2028 2013 2018 2023 2028

Sooke Elementary Poirier Elementary 425 500

400 475 375 Adjusted 450 Adjusted 350

325 425

300 Baragar 400 Baragar 275 375 250

225 350 2013 2018 2023 2028 2013 2018 2023 2028

Matrix Planning Associates 1845 | 2018 05 02 Appendix A | Page 1 of 6 Saseenos Elementary Journey Middle 225 700

200 650

Adjusted Adjusted 175 600

150 550 Baragar Baragar

125 500

100 450 2013 2018 2023 2028 2013 2018 2023 2028

Edward Milne Secondary Hans Helegsen Elementary 800 275

750 250

Adjusted Adjusted 700 225

650 200 Baragar Baragar

600 175

550 150 2013 2018 2023 2028 2013 2018 2023 2028

Matrix Planning Associates 1845 | 2018 05 02 Appendix A | Page 2 of 6 Happy Valley Elementary Wishart Elementary 750 400

700 375 650 Adjusted Adjusted 600 350 550

500 325 Baragar Baragar 450 300 400

350 275 2013 2018 2023 2028 2013 2018 2023 2028

Sangster Elementary Colwood Elementary 300 250

275 225

250 Adjusted Adjusted 200 225 175 200 Baragar Baragar

150 175

150 125 2013 2018 2023 2028 2013 2018 2023 2028

Matrix Planning Associates 1845 | 2018 05 02 Appendix A | Page 3 of 6 Crystal View Elementary John Stubbs Elementary-Middle 350 1,100

325 1,000

300 Adjusted 900 Adjusted

275 800

250 Baragar 700 Baragar

225 600

200 500 2013 2018 2023 2028 2013 2018 2023 2028

Dunsmuir Middle Royal Bay Secondary 1,050 1,450

1,000 1,350 950 Adjusted 1,250 Adjusted 900

850 1,150

800 Baragar 1,050 Baragar 750 950 700

650 850 2013 2018 2023 2028 2013 2018 2023 2028

Matrix Planning Associates 1845 | 2018 05 02 Appendix A | Page 4 of 6 David Cameron Elementary Savory Elementary 550 300 525 275 500 475 250 450 Adjusted Adjusted 225 425

400 200 375 Baragar Baragar 350 175 325 150 300 275 125 2013 2018 2023 2028 2013 2018 2023 2028

Ruth King Elementary Millstream Elementary 350 300

325 275

Adjusted Adjusted 300 250

275 225 Baragar Baragar

250 200

225 175 2013 2018 2023 2028 2013 2018 2023 2028

Matrix Planning Associates 1845 | 2018 05 02 Appendix A | Page 5 of 6 Lakewood Elementary Willway Elementary 600 300

275 550

Adjusted 250 Adjusted 500 225 450 Baragar 200 Baragar

400 175

350 150 2013 2018 2023 2028 2013 2018 2023 2028

Spencer Middle Belmont Secondary 1,050 1,950

1,000 1,850 950 1,750 900 Adjusted Adjusted 1,650 850 1,550 800 1,450 750 Baragar Baragar 1,350 700

650 1,250

600 1,150 2013 2018 2023 2028 2013 2018 2023 2028

Matrix Planning Associates 1845 | 2018 05 02 Appendix A | Page 6 of 6 APPENDIXB

SUMMARY ENROLMENT FORECAST Summary Enrolment Forecast for SSD Schools

School 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Belmont Secondary 1,235 1,250 1,305 1,408 1,487 1,594 1,656 1,719 1,748 1,819 1,865 1,901 Colwood Elementary 187 183 183 187 193 190 187 191 194 196 202 204 Crystal View Elementary 245 235 220 221 228 235 239 240 243 249 249 252 David Cameron Elementary 353 385 381 407 412 430 447 457 485 497 521 536 Dunsmuir Middle 745 784 813 829 831 853 897 918 946 955 1,008 996 Edward Milne Secondary 593 584 616 629 628 662 665 698 710 718 754 748 Hans Helegsen Elementary 192 204 215 220 237 227 229 233 237 238 237 240 Happy Valley Elementary 418 445 474 524 583 608 628 664 674 680 688 714 John Muir Elementary 192 215 217 225 232 239 254 249 261 259 267 272 John Stubbs Elementary-Middle 724 783 849 899 933 964 998 1,003 1,039 1,034 1,050 1,057 Journey Middle 516 540 534 561 596 599 590 615 636 674 664 686 Lakewood Elementary 439 467 476 480 512 531 533 543 558 577 583 593 Millstream Elementary 253 254 254 262 272 276 279 287 289 292 295 299 Poirier Elementary 379 402 405 407 410 424 442 444 458 467 471 482 Port Renfrew Elementary 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 12 13 12 13 12 Royal Bay Secondary 979 1,054 1,142 1,162 1,185 1,225 1,236 1,250 1,284 1,306 1,327 1,383 Ruth King Elementary 277 283 288 282 277 292 292 296 295 303 310 313 Sangster Elementary 239 245 243 246 242 242 249 260 263 278 282 290 Saseenos Elementary 128 135 140 145 150 155 156 158 161 161 161 161 Savory Elementary 193 200 212 229 245 248 250 259 267 269 271 274 Sooke Elementary 306 335 344 360 342 355 364 368 374 389 402 415 Spencer Middle 752 792 845 876 895 881 929 976 1,004 1,002 1,012 1,043 Willway Elementary 179 192 195 216 219 228 232 241 254 257 273 283 Wishart Elementary 326 329 354 365 369 379 378 387 381 385 390 396 SSD Schools 9,861 10,308 10,716 11,152 11,489 11,849 12,141 12,468 12,774 13,017 13,295 13,550

Matrix Planning Associates 1845 | 2018 05 03 SSD LRFP Enrolment.xlsx | 2018 Enrolment | Appendix B APPENDIXC

ELIGIBLE SCHOOL SITES PROPOSAL

To: School District 62 (Sooke) From: Matrix Planning Associates Date: 2018 06 05 Subject: 2018 Update, Eligible School Sites Proposal, Sooke School District

THE SCHOOL SITES ACQUISITION CHARGE

The School Sites Acquisition Charge (SSAC) is a charge per dwelling unit paid by residential developers. The charge is collected by local government and transferred to school boards. The money collected is used to help pay for new school sites resulting from new residential development. The SSAC Implementation Guide outlines the principles underlying the SSAC legislation, highlights those developments that are exempt from the charge, and provides a framework for the process to be followed to set the charge by school boards and their local governments. This document, the Eligible School Sites Proposal (ESSP), encompasses Steps 1 to 3 of the process for implementing SSAC in the Sooke School District (SSD). Step 1 estimates the number of eligible residential development units that will be built in SSD over the next eleven years. Step 2 estimates the number of students that are expected to live in the new eligible development units by 2028, the end of the planning horizon. Step 3 is the preparation of the ESSP and incorporates all the information required to calculate SSAC for SSD including: Enrolment estimates to 2028. The definition of new schools and new school sites required in response to anticipated enrolment growth. Estimates of the cost of new land for new school sites.

CONTEXT FOR THE 2011 UPDATE

We prepared the first ESSP for SSD in 2001. That document established a base rate of $558 as the average charge per unit. The actual charge varied from $419 to $698 depending on the density of the new residential development. The 2001 ESSP formed the basis for an agreement with all SSD municipalities. Since establishing the initial SSAC, we have prepared two updates: In 2007, we concluded that the average charge per unit should be increased slightly to $578. In 2011, the updated information indicated that the average charge per unit should be increased to $901. The purpose of the current 2018 update is to provide the background analysis to allow SSD and the municipalities to modify the existing SSAC to a rate that more

Appendix C, 2018 Update, Eligible School Sites Proposal, SSD, June 2018 1

closely corresponds to our best estimate of future residential development as well as the need for new school sites. The data for much of the analysis outlined in this update are drawn from SSD’s 2018 Update of the Long Range Facilities Plan (‘LRFP 2018’). Enrolment forecasts for LRFP 2018 were based on actual enrolments in September 2017. As a result, we consider 2017 the base year for this analysis of the SSAC.

STUDENTS FROM NEW RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT

Figure 1 shows the results of Steps 1 and 2 in the process to establish the SSAC.

Figure 1: Estimate of Students from Eligible Development Units

Type of unit Housing units Yield rate EDU students Single Detached 4,300 0.494 2,123 Townhouse 2,560 0.370 946 Apartment 3,940 0.153 602 Total housing units 10,800 0.340 3,671 Sunriver exemption 300 Net housing units 10,500

The estimated number of housing units is taken from Section 3.2 in LRFP 2018. Figure 1 summarizes the estimated number of units for the eleven-year period 2017 to 2028. The yield rates in Figure 1 are as outlined in LRFP 2018. The net number of housing units subtracts the estimated housing units for the Sunriver development in Sooke. This is because the Sunriver developer provided a school site in lieu of paying SSAC for the project.

COST OF NEW SCHOOL SITES

Figure 2 lists the proposed capital projects that require new sites to meet the estimate student demand by 2028. Our definition of long-term capacity appraised the likelihood that the school may need to be expanded in the future. Our estimate of property needed considered the nature of the development being considered as well as the specific circumstances of existing sites (in the case of expansions). The list of sites required does not include the following recently acquired properties: John Stubbs Elementary-Middle. Royal Secondary. Belmont Secondary. Proposed new Sooke River Elementary since that site has been acquired as part of an arrangement with the developer of Sunriver Estates.

Appendix C, 2018 Update, Eligible School Sites Proposal, SSD, June 2018 2

West Langford site for the proposed new West Langford Elementary and the proposed new middle school, since this site has been acquired and payment included a contribution from the SSAC fund.

Figure 2: Capital Projects Requiring New Sites

Scope of Initial Planned Existing Allowable Property Name of Project Project Capacity Capacity Site Area Area (ha) Needed

New Royal Bay Elementary New school 286 396 n/a 2.5 2.5 New South Langford Elementary New school 396 484 n/a 2.8 2.8 New North Langford Elementary New school 396 484 n/a 2.8 2.8 New Secondary New school 800 1,200 n/a 5.6 5.6 Edward Milne expansion Expansion 750 1,200 4.6 5.6 2.0 Total 2,628 3,764 15.7

We estimate that it will cost approximately $49 million to acquire the properties listed in Figure 2, qualified as follows: The cost estimates are preliminary. Actual costs will depend on many factors including market conditions. The estimates are for land acquisition and may include the cost of site preparation as well as the cost to provide servicing to the property. All estimates are in 2018 dollars and do not account for future escalation of land prices. The costs for all required properties are estimated at market values even in circumstances where the land may be donated or result from some other business arrangement.

PENT-UP AND FUTURE DEMAND

Figure 3 presents the basic method of calculating pent-up demand for SSD as of September 2017. The enrolment and capacities do not include alternate programs or home schooling students.

Figure 3: Basic Method to Estimate Pent-up Demand

2017 Enrolment 9,861 2017 Operating Capacity 9,524 Pent-up Demand 337

Figure 4 presents the overall estimate of increased enrolment for SSD. The data for these tables is drawn from LRFP 2018. The enrolment estimates used in Figures 3 and 4 is summarized in Appendix B of LRFP 2018. Enrolments exclude students in alternative programs as well as international students.

Appendix C, 2018 Update, Eligible School Sites Proposal, SSD, June 2018 3

Figure 4: Enrolment Forecast for SSD

Current Year 2017 Current Enrolment 9,861 Year Eleven 2028 Year Eleven Enrolment 13,548 Eleven-Year Increase 3,687

SSAC CALCULATIONS

Figure 5 outlines the calculations necessary to establish the average SSAC per eligible residential unit. All data in Figure 5 are from earlier figures in this report.

Figure 5: Developer Share of New Site Costs

Factor Estimate 1 Eleven-Year Enrolment Increase 3,687 2 Plus Pent-up Demand 337 3 Net Increase Requiring New Facilities 4,024 4 Students from Eligible Development Units 3,671 5 Enrolment Increase Proportion 92% 6 New Development Proportion 91% 7 Estimated Net Cost of New Property $49,000,000 8 Attributable to Eligible Development Units $44,697,496 9 Proportion to be Paid through SSAC 35% 10 Estimated Share to be Paid through SSAC $15,644,124 11 Total Eligible Development Units 10,500 12 Average Charge per Unit (Base Rate) $1,490

Figure 6 outlines the preliminary calculation of the actual SSAC, as it would be applied to each type of dwelling unit. All calculations of SSAC are rounded to the nearest dollar. Since the base rate is higher than the maximum charge, the maximum charge of $1,000 per low density residential applies.

Figure 6: School Site Acquisition Charge

Unit Maximum Density Factor Charge Charge

Low 1.250 $1,000 $1,000 Medium low 1.125 $900 $900 Medium 1.000 $800 $800 Medium high 0.875 $700 $700 High 0.750 $600 $600 Base Rate $1,490

Appendix C, 2018 Update, Eligible School Sites Proposal, SSD, June 2018 4

The densities are defined in the SSAC regulations as follows: Low density is up to 21 units per hectare. Medium/low density is 21 to 50 units per hectare. Medium density is 51 to 125 units per hectare. Medium/high density is 126 to 200 units per hectare. High density is more than 200 units per hectare.

Appendix C, 2018 Update, Eligible School Sites Proposal, SSD, June 2018 5