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Long Range Facilities Plan Final Draft: 22 September 2016

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Long Range Facilities Plan Final Draft: 22 September 2016 LLOONNGG RRAANNGGEE FFAACCIILLIITTIIEESS PPLLAANN PREPARED BY Cascade Facilities Management Consultants Ltd 206-20641 Logan Ave Langley BC V3A 7R5 Tel: 604-657-6361 www.cascade-cslts.com (FINAL DRAFT: 22 September 2016) TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary i 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Ministry’s Requirements 1.2 School District’s Objectives 1.3 Process 2. The School District 3 2.1 Overview 2.2 Programs 2.3 Portables and Modular Buildings 2.4 Facility Condition 2.5 Seismic Condition 2.6 Capital Projects 2.7 School Closures 2.8 New School Sites 3. Community Demographics 12 3.1 Overview 3.2 Historical Population Growth 3.3 Demographic Characteristics 3.4 Factors Contributing to Population Growth 3.5 Future Population Growth 3.6 Demographic Analysis Trends 4. Enrolment Projections 21 4.1 Overview 4.2 Enrolment Projection Methodology 4.3 Students from New Housing Developments 4.4 10-year Enrolment Projection 4.5 Comparison with Ministry’s Projection 5. Capacity Utilization Analysis & Options 27 5.1 Overview 5.2 School Nominal and Operating Capacities 5.3 District Average Capacity Utilization 5.4 Capacity Analysis and Options 6. Recommendations and Conclusion 38 6.1 Recommendations 6.2 Conclusion Appendix A Students from New Housing Developments - 2017 to 2026 B 10-Year Enrolment Projection and Operating Capacity - 2017 to 2026 C Projected Space Surplus/Deficit in Elementary Schools - 2021 & 2026 School District No. 62 (Sooke) Long Range Facilities Plan Final Draft: 22 September 2016 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Cascade Facilities Management Ltd (Cascade) was engaged in May 2016 by School District No. 62 (Sooke) to develop a Long Range Facilities Plan (LRFP) in accordance with the requirements set forth by the Ministry of Education. The LRFP is to form the basis for investment decisions and the rationale for project proposals submitted in the Capital Plan, over a 10-year time horizon. The LRFP will guide the School District and the Ministry to make decisions over the long term to ensure cost-effective operations of existing facilities and investments in capital projects and will include: examination of community demographics; review of the condition of existing facilities; projections of population and enrolment from 2017 to 2026; analysis of capacity utilization, options and recommendations. THE SCHOOL DISTRICT The School District, in 2015, had a total enrolment of 9,074 in 17 elementary schools, one K-8 single-track French Immersion school, three middle schools and three secondary schools plus 21 portables. The VFA Condition Report indicates that four schools are in the “Excellent” category, two in the “Good” category, three in the “Average” category, nine in the “Poor” category and the remaining schools in the “Very Poor” category. (See Fig. 2.4B.) The facility condition of several schools which have partial or full seismic upgrade completed or underway will be reassessed. Seismic upgrades have been completed at Spencer Middle, Sangster Elementary and Dunsmuir Middle. Support has been given for Ruth King Elementary which has a High 2 seismic risk. There will remain six schools in the Medium Risk category, mainly requiring non-structural seismic upgrades, and one (Willway Elementary) in the High 3 category (see Fig 2.5A). COMMUNITY DEMOGRAPHICS The area served by the Sooke School District is part of the Capital Regional District (CRD). It includes the area generally known as the West Shore and is made up of the municipalities of Sooke, Metchosin, Colwood, Langford and Highlands, as well as the Juan de Fuca Electoral Area. It also includes three First Nations Reserve Lands (see Fig. 3.1B). Cascade Facilities Management Ltd i School District No. 62 (Sooke) Long Range Facilities Plan Final Draft: 22 September 2016 The population of the West Shore has been growing continually over the last three decades. Based on the estimates prepared by BC Stats, the population has almost doubled in size from 40,756 in 1986 to 79,509 in 2016. BC Stats also forecasts a further increase of about 20,000 to about 100,000 by 2026 (see Fig 4.1A and 4.1B). ENROLMENT PROJECTION The enrolment projection, prepared by Cascade, indicates an increasing enrolment to 12,479 by 2026, an approximate increase of 2.680 students over the next 10 years from the enrolment figure of 9,799 for 2016 provided by the Sooke School District based on the numbers reported as of the first week of September. Over the next 10 years, more than 3,000 students are expected to come from the new housing developments being constructed and planned in the West Shore communities, mainly from Langford, Colwood and Sooke. Together with the high birth rate for the West Shore that will be adding to the number of new Kindergarten students each year, they will account for this large increase of student enrolment In comparison, the projection figures from the 2015/16 District and Provincial Report for Public School Aged Headcount Enrolment (Form 1558b) provided by the Ministry, are very close with Cascade’s projection for the years for the years 2016 to 2020 and slightly higher for the years 2021 to 2026 (see Fig 4.5B). CAPACITY UTILIZATION AND OPTIONS A Capacity Utilization of 94.96% for the School District was achieved in 2015 when the district enrolment reached 9,074. This met the minimum district average utilization of 95% for urban schools with an enrolment of more than 7,500 as specified in the 2016/17 Capital Plan Instructions, in order for school districts to be eligible to apply for new capital building projects. The overall capacity utilization for the District in 2016 is 102.52% (see Fig 5.3A). With an expected increase of enrolment to 12,479 by 2026, without additional new spaces, the School District will be operating at a capacity utilization of 130.56 % which represents a deficit of over 2,921 spaces: 1,001 at the elementary level, 757 at the middle level and 1,163 at the secondary level. The options that are to be considered are provided below. For the Belmont family: addition to Belmont Secondary School; addition to Spencer or new middle school to address space deficit at both Spencer and Dunsmuir; new school to address space deficit of Lakewood and Millstream; replacement of Millstream Elementary due to its high FCI and medium seismic risk. Cascade Facilities Management Ltd ii School District No. 62 (Sooke) Long Range Facilities Plan Final Draft: 22 September 2016 For the Royal Bay family: addition to Royal Bay Secondary School; addition to Dunsmuir Middle School, or new middle school to address space deficit at both Dunsmuir and Spencer; a new school in South Langford area to address space deficit at both Happy Valley and Sangster; addition and renovation to or replacement of Wishart Elementary School to a larger capacity, due to poor facility condition (FCI = 0.62) and medium seismic risk. For the Edward Milne family, based on current estimates of new housing developments (without upgrade of the sewage treatment system): addition to Edward Milne Community Secondary School; addition and renovation to or replacement of Sooke Elementary School to a larger capacity, due to enrolment increase, poor facility condition (FCI = 0.66) and medium seismic risk; addition and renovation to or replacement of John Muir Elementary School to a larger capacity, due to enrolment increase, poor facility condition (FCI = 0.66) and medium seismic risk; and renovation to or replacement of Saseenos Elementary School, due to its poor facility condition (FCI = 0.70) and medium seismic risk. RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION The major recommendations emerging from the analysis of capacity utilization, condition and seismic risk assessment, are as follows: 1. The options for each family of schools should be considered and prioritized for inclusion in the 2017/18 Capital Plan submission. 2. The size of additions to the secondary schools should take into account the optimal capacity for educational purposes and the availability of land at the existing sites. 3. A new middle school on a separate site should be considered as additions to the existing middle schools would result in capacities considered too large for their sites. 4. The enrolment projection for the Edward Milne family of schools should be updated prior to the 2018/19 Capital Submission in June 2017, should the upgrade of the sewage treatment system in Sooke proceed. 5. A minor update to this LRFP should be undertaken when the 2016 Census data on housing and population become available by Spring 2017 and a more detailed analysis of planned new housing developments be completed with the municipalities at the same time. 6. Close liaison should be continued with the planning departments of the district municipalities of the West Shore area and the CRD in respect to population growth, new housing developments, safe walking and bicycle paths, traffic issues, and lands for school use. Cascade Facilities Management Ltd iii School District No. 62 (Sooke) Long Range Facilities Plan Final Draft: 22 September 2016 7. Monitoring of new housing developments in the different municipalities should be continued on an ongoing basis in respect to impact on enrolment and capacity utilization at local schools. The information should be collated on a quarterly basis and analysed annually, together with the number of building and occupancy issued, as part of the enrolment projection and the Capital Plan submission for the coming year. 8. Where new schools are to be considered in catchment areas without any site held in reserve by the School District, site acquisition should to be actively pursued. 9. A jointly-developed management plan by the School District and the Ministry for the temporary accommodation of new students in catchment areas where local schools are over capacity should be considered, taking into account anticipated completion of new projects.
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