Vulnerability and Risk Assessment and Identifying Adaptation Options Summary for Policy Makers Vulnerability and Risk Assessment and Identifying Adaptation Options Summary for Policy Makers Published By Government of Nepal Ministry of Forests and Environment Singh Durbar, Kathmandu, Nepal Telephone: 977-14211567 Toll-Free Number: 16600101000 Fax: 977-1-4211868 Email: [email protected] Copyright @ 2021 Ministry of Forests and Environment (MoFE), Government of Nepal This publication may be used for educational and non-profit purposes, provided acknowledgement of the source is accurately made. Use of any part of it for a commercial purpose is strictly prohibited. Supported By British Embassy Kathmandu (BEK) Policy and Institutions Facility (PIF), Oxford Policy Management (OPM) Editorial Team Dr Bimal Raj Regmi, Apar Paudyal, Rajan Thapa, Regan Sapkota, Smriti Shah, Gita GC, Rojy Joshi, and Dr Ram Prasad Lamsal Contributors Basana Sapkota, Dr Shiba Banskota, Dr Kalyan Gauli, Dr Eak Rana, Dr Bhogendra Mishra, Dr Pashupati Chaudhary, Dr Dilip Gautam, Dr Yadav Joshi, Dr Nilhari Neupane, Pabitra Gurung, Dr Pashupati Nepal, Pratik Ghimire, Dinanath Bhandari, Dr Keshab Raj Goutam, Bamshi Acharya, and Prashamsa Thapa Citation MoFE. (2021). Vulnerability and Risk Assessment and Identifying Adaptation Options: Summary for Policy Makers. Ministry of Forests and Environment, Government of Nepal. Kathmandu, Nepal. Cover page photographs Credits: Bimal Raj Regmi, Anju Pandit, Regan Sapkota, and Krity Shrestha Design and Print: Worldwide Print Solution (WPS), tel 5550289, email [email protected] i Vulnerability and Risk Assessment and Identifying Adaptation Options Vulnerability and Risk Assessment and Identifying Adaptation Options ii Contents Foreword i Acknowledgement ii Contents iii List of Tables v List of Figures vi Executive Summary viii Acronyms xviii Chapter 1: Introduction 1 1.1 Country Background 1 1.2 National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Process 3 1.3 Objectives and Scope of Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA) 3 1.4 Using this report 4 Chapter 2: Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA) Framework, Process and Methodological Steps 5 2.1 Introduction 5 2.2 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Approach and Methodological Process 6 Chapter 3: Socio-Economic Trends and Scenarios 15 3.1 Demographic Trends and Projections 15 3.2 Labour Migration 16 3.3 Female-Headed Households in Nepal 17 3.4 Human Development Index (HDI) 18 3.5 Gender Development (GDI) 19 3.6 Gender Inequality Index (GII) 19 3.7 Poverty Trends 20 3.8 GDP Trends at National Level 21 Chapter 4: Climate Change Trends and Scenarios 23 4.1 All Nepal Normal Precipitation and Temperature 23 4.2 Climate Trends 25 4.2.1 Temperature Trends 25 4.2.2 Precipitation Trends 26 4.2.3 Extreme Events Trends 27 iii Vulnerability and Risk Assessment and Identifying Adaptation Options 4.3 Climate Change Scenarios 28 4.3.1 Temperature Scenarios 28 4.3.2 Precipitation Scenarios 29 4.3.3 Extreme Events Scenarios 30 4.4 Climate-Induced Hazards 32 4.4.1 Trend of Climate-induced Hazards 32 4.4.2 Future Scenarios of Climatic Hazards 44 Chapter 5: Observed and Perceived Impact of Climate Change 45 5.1 Loss and Damage from Climate-Induced Hazards/extreme events 45 5.2 Observed Impacts on Sectors 48 5.2.1 Observed Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security 48 5.2.2 Observed Impacts on Forests, Biodiversity, and Watershed Management 49 5.2.3 Observed Impact on Water Resources and Energy 52 5.2.4 Observed Impact on Health and WASH 54 5.2.5 Observed Impact on Rural and Urban Settlements 56 5.2.6 Observed Impact on Industry, Transport, and Physical Infrastructure 58 5.2.7 Observed Impact on Tourism, Natural and Cultural Heritage 59 5.2.8 Observed Impacts on the GESI & Livelihood 60 5.3 Perceived Impact of climate change 61 Chapter 6: Hazards, Exposure, Vulnerability, and Risk 63 6.1 Climate Extreme Events 63 6.2 Exposure to Climate-induced hazards/Extreme events 69 6.3 Sensitivity to climate-induced hazards/climate extreme events 72 6.4 Adaptive Capacity 75 6.5 Vulnerability 78 6.6 Risk of climate change impact 85 Chapter 7: Adaptation Options 95 Chapter 8: Conclusion 105 References 113 Annex 125 Annex 1. Key Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive capacity indicators 125 Annex 2. Consolidated Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive capacity and Vulnerability index 127 Annex 3. Consolidated Extreme events/hazards and Risk index 129 Annex 4. Consolidated Vulnerability and risk index of urban municipalities 132 Annex 5. Consolidated Vulnerability and risk index of rural municipalities 143 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment and Identifying Adaptation Options iv List of Tables Table 1: Thematic areas covered by VRA 4 Table 2: A Base Data requirement for the Indicators in water resources and energy sector 11 Table 3: Score for the importance of variable (Saaty Scale) 12 Table 4: Current and projected population at national level 16 Table 5: Trends of poverty headcount from 1995-2011 21 Table 6: Changes in the extreme events 27 Table 7: Future Climate Extreme Indices 31 Table 8: Mann-Kendall test statistics for linear trend of 14 climatic hazard events 33 Table 9: District wise rank of baseline context of flood hazard based on historical climate 34 Table 10: District wise rank of baseline context of landslide hazard based on historical climate 35 Table 11: Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes (PDGLs) in Nepal 39 Table 12: District wise rank of the overall impact of climate-induced disasters 47 Table 13: Baseline Extreme Events Composite Index 64 Table 14: Ranking of Provinces based on climatic hazards and their impacts 65 Table 15: Extreme Events Composite Index - 2030 66 Table 16: Extreme Events Composite Index - 2050 67 Table 17: Descriptive scenarios of climate variables and extreme indices under future climate change 68 Table 18: Descriptive scenarios of climatic hazards under future climate change 69 Table 19: Overall exposure index of Nepal 71 Table 20: Overall sensitivity index of Nepal 73 Table 21: Overall adaptive capacity index of Nepal 76 Table 22: Overall vulnerability index of Nepal 80 Table 23: Overall climate change vulnerability Index during NAPA, 2010 80 Table 24: Overall baseline risk index of Nepal 86 Table 25: Districts with high extreme events, exposure, and vulnerability 86 Table 26: Percentage change in extreme climatic conditions in the medium-term and long-term periods under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 87 Table 27: Risk Scenarios under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (2030) 89 Table 28: Risk Scenarios index in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2050) 90 Table 29: Risk of Climate Change Impact in the sectors 91 Table 30: Types of adaptation options 95 Table 31: Adaptation Options in the sectors 97 Table 32: Adaptation options to address specific climate-induced hazards risk and vulnerability 103 v Vulnerability and Risk Assessment and Identifying Adaptation Options List of Figures Figure 1: Steps for Vulnerability and Risk Assessment 6 Figure 2: Climate change vulnerability and risk assessment framework 9 Figure 3: Trend of remittance flow in Nepal (million USD) 17 Figure 4: Trend and projection of female-headed households at the national level 17 Figure 5: HDI trends and projection at the national level 18 Figure 6: Trends and Projection of Gender Development Index (GDI) in Nepal 19 Figure 7: Trends and Projection of Gender Inequality Index (GII) in Nepal 20 Figure 8: Trends of GDP growth and its value at current price 2019 (billion USD) 21 Figure 9: Annual average temperature of Nepal: a) maximum temperature; and b) minimum temperature 24 Figure 10: Average annual precipitation (1971 - 2010) across Nepal 25 Figure 11: Annual temperature trend (a) maximum temperature (b) minimum temperature 26 Figure 12: Annual precipitation trend 27 Figure 13: Mid-term and long-term temperature scenario in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 29 Figure 14: Mid-term and long-term precipitation scenario in RCP 4.5 and 8.5 30 Figure 15: All Nepal trends of climatic hazards in Nepal: a) trend of 11 hazards; b) trend of fire and forest fire; c) trend of drought events and areas 32 Figure 16: Baseline context of flood hazard based on historical climate 34 Figure 17: Baseline context of landslide hazard based on historical climate 35 Figure 18: Baseline hazard Map: a) Heatwave, b) Cold Wave 36 Figure 19: Baseline hazard Map: a) Snowstorm, b) Thunderbolts 36 Figure 20: Trend of thunderbolt events and annual average temperature and their relationship 37 Figure 21: Trend of thunderbolt events and annual rainfall and their relationship 37 Figure 22: Trend of windstorm events and annual maximum temperature and their relationship 37 Figure 23: Baseline hazard Map: a) Windstorm, b) Hailstorm 38 Figure 24: Baseline hazard Map: a) Avalanche, b) GLOFs 38 Figure 25: Baseline hazard Map of Drought 39 Figure 26: Trend of drought-prone areas and annual rainfall in Dolpa district 40 Figure 27: Baseline hazard Map: a) Fire, b) Forest Fire 40 Figure 28: Trend of fire events and annual maximum temperature and their relationship 40 Figure 29: Trend of fire events and annual rainfall and their relationship 41 Figure 30: Trend of forest fire events and pre-monsoon rainfall and their relationship 41 Figure 31: Trend of forest fire events and annual maximum temperature and their relationship 42 Figure 32: Trend of epidemic events and annual rainfall in Dang district 42 Figure 33: Trend of epidemic events and annual maximum temperature in Dang district 43 Figure 34: Baseline hazard Map of Epidemics 43 Figure 35: All Nepal trend of climate-induced disaster deaths 46 Figure 36: Hazard wise deaths, affected people,