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1987-Factors Affecting US Oil N Gas Outlook.Pdf NATIONAL PETROLEUM COUNCIL 1625 K Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20006 (202) 393-6100 February 24, 1987 The Honorable JohnS. Herrington Secretary of Energy Washington, D. C. 20585 My dear Mr. Secretary: The National Petroleum Council strongly believes that the UnitedStates and other consuming nations face the serious threat of a repeat of the energy crises of the 1970s. We are confronted with a rapidly growing oil import dependence, which will increase our vulnerability to a supply disruption, undermine our national security, accelerate our bal­ ance of trade problems, and compromise our foreign policy. Mr. Secretary, we urge you and the Administration to join us in making every effort to alert the nation to this grave situation, and to thoroughly review all of the various options available to prevent a reoc­ currence of these crises. The Council stresses the urgency of the situation and the need for prompt action. It has become evident in recent months that there is a lack of awareness or apprecia­ tion on the part of the general public and Congress of the long-term threat to our economy and national security posed by Middle East OPEC's ability to manipulate oil supply and thus price_ . We have seen that these foreign countries, acting in their own self-interest, can radically change world oil markets overnight. The United States and other consuming nations must be vigilant to these actions and be prepared to respond to ensure that their economic prosperity and energy security are not jeopardized. In the first months of 1986, crude oil prices fell 60 percent, providing a windfall to consumers and reducing inflationary pressures. Even though oil prices have rebounded somewhat in recent months, the 1986 price drop and the uncertainty that it created have sown the seeds for a dramatic reversal of the progress made in conservation and in domes­ tic oil and gas production over the last ten years. During 1986: • Domestic oil production dropped 700 thousand barrels per day (8 percent) • Oil demand increased 2. 5 percent despite a sluggish economy • Oil imports rose 23 percent (to 33 percent of supply) • Exploration and production bu dgets were cut one-third • Oil and gas drilling activity fell 50 percent (85 percent since 1981) • Direct industry employment dropped by over 150,000 jobs (26 percent). The decline in activity and industry capability will reduce production in the future, which, wh en combined with growing demand, will result in even greater dependence on imports. The nation must address the increased vulnerability that will inevitably result from a con­ tinua tion of these trends. An Advisory Committee to the Secretary of Energy The Honorable JohnS. Herrington February 24, 1987 Page Two A survey conducted by the Council in the second quarter of 1986 shows net imports rising from 27 percent of supply in 1985 to over 50 percent in the early to mid-1990s. The survey also shows that as early as 1990 OPEC capacity utilization could exceed the 80 percent level that preceded the 1970s energy crises. Data for the last two quarters of 1986, combined with adverse changes in the tax law, raise the fear that such levels of imports and OPEC production may be reached even earlier. There are initiativ es that the federal government can undertake to slow or reverse these trends. None of these is without social, economic, and political costs that must be weighed carefully against the benefits. The price collapse of 1986 has brought forth proposals that call for immediate intervention by the U.S. government. These include, singly or in combination: establishing floor prices or import fees; levying consumption taxes; and providing domestic production and/or exploration inc'entives. Other options address more chronic but still significant problems for the U.S. oil and gas outlook. These include: natural gas decontrol; public lands access; overall tax policies relating to extractive industries; and federal research policies. Finally, there are options that can help mitigate the vulnerability of the U.S. econ­ omy to future price shocks and shortages. Among these options are: energy conservation and the use of alternative fuels; diversification of oil supply sources; diplomatic actions to increase the interEiependence of producing and consuming nations; and monetary and fiscal policies to mitigate the effects of oil price shocks. These, of course, are in addition to the expansion and use of strategic petroleum reserves in the United States and other countries. As you are well aware, the U.S. petroleum industry is in general agreement with the desirability of prompt government action on the options in the latter two categories in order to protect consumers, the economy, and the national security from vulnerability to price shocks and shortages. However, the industry is not united on the advisability of im plementing some of the interventionist options in the first category. On behalf of the members of the Council, I am pleased to transmit to you herewith the National Petroleum Council's report, Factors Affecting U.S. Oil & Gas Outlook, which was unanimously approved by the Council at its meeting today. This report, prepared in response to your request, provides extensive da ta and analyses that underscore our con­ cerns. We sincerely hope that it will be of value to you, to the Administration, and to Congress in agreeing on the appropriate actions to serve the interests of consumers and the nation. Respectfully submitted, l �� Ralph E. Bailey Chairman Enclosure Factors Mfecting U.S. Oil & Gas Outlook A Report of the National Petroleum Council February 1987 James L. Ketelsen, Chairman Committee on U.S. Oil & Gas Outlook NATIONAL PETROLEUM COUNCIL Ralph E. Bailey, Chairman Edwin L. Cox, Vice Chairman Marshall W. Nichols, Executive Director U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY John S. Herrington, Secretary The National Petroleum Council is a federal advisory committee to the Secretary of Energy. The sole purpose of the National Petroleum Council is to advise, inform, and make recommendations to the Secretary of Energy on any matter requested by the Secretary relating to petroleum or the petroleum industry. All Rights Reserved Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 87-60168 ©National Petroleum Council 1987 Printed in the United States of America TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction . 1 Study Request . 1 Study Organization and Methodology . 1 Interim Report . 2 Final Report . 2 Executive Summary . 3 Conclusions and Options for Consideration . 5 Conclusions 5 Options for Consideration . 13 Report Summary . 15 The 1970s Energy Crises, Policy Responses, and Economic Effects . 15 Economic Impacts of Future Energy Crises . 20 The 1986 Oil Price Collapse . 21 Supply and Demand Outlook . 25 SECTION I-HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON ENERGY CRISES AND U.S. POLICY RESPONSES Chapter One: Introduction . 33 Chapter Two: Historical Actions and Events Associated With the Energy Crises of the 1970s . 39 Introduction . 39 Summary and Overview of Pre-Embargo History (Up to 1973) . 39 U.S. Vulnerability to Oil Supply Disruptions Prior to the Arab Embargo of 1973-74 . 41 Government Responses to the Oil Embargo and Shortages (1973-75) . 45 Continued U.S. Oil Import Dependence Prior to the Iranian Crisis (1975-78) . 48 Government Responses to the Iranian Shortfall . 50 Significant Factors Affecting the Development and Use of Natural Gas . 54 Government Responses to the Natural Gas Shortages and Curtailments of the 1970s 58 References . 62 Chapter Three: Impact of Historical Price Shocks . 63 Introduction . 63 Impacts of 1973 and 1979 Oil Shocks . 64 Impact of Recent Price Declines . 70 References . 7 5 SECTION II-FACTORS AFFECTING U.S. OIL & GAS OUTLOOK Chapter Four: Introduction-Factors Affecting Oil & Gas Outlook . 77 Chapter Five: Economic Factors: Supply/Demand Responses to Major Oil Price Changes . 79 Introduction . 79 Crude Oil and Natural Gas Price History . 80 Supply Response to Price Changes . 85 The NPC Oil & Gas Outlook Survey and IPAA/SIPES Drilling Survey . 92 Demand Response to Price Changes . 103 International Effects of Alternative Energy on Oil Consumption . 112 Summary . 114 Chapter Six: Physical Factors . 117 Introduction . 117 Petroleum Resource Base . 117 Te chnological Advances . 126 Impacts of Recent Price Declines on Petroleum Service and Supply Sectors . 133 Chapter Seven: Institutional Factors . 143 Introduction . 143 Environmental Concerns, Policies, and Regulations Affecting Oil and Gas Supply . 143 Environmental Concerns, Policies, and Regulations Affecting Oil and Gas Demand . 149 Government Policies (Other Than Environmental) Affecting Oil and Gas Supply . 152 Government Policies Affecting Demand fo r Oil and Gas . 153 Chapter Eight: International Factors . 155 Introduction . 155 OPEC Supply . 156 Non-OPEC Supply . 158 World Crude Oil Reserves and Resources . 159 Future Non-OPEC Production . 161 Foreign Demand . 162 Political Factors . 164 Foreign Reactions to U.S. Policies ..........: . ..
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