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The Great One Is Born: Wayne Gretzky's Monumental

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The Great One Is Born: Wayne Gretzky's Monumental THE GREAT ONE IS BORN: WAYNE GRETZKY’S MONUMENTAL SEASON Tyler Ison Submitted to the faculty of the University Graduate School in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Master of Science in the Richard M. Fairbanks School of Biostatistics, Indiana University May 2019 Accepted by the Graduate Faculty of Indiana University, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science. Master's Thesis Committee ______________________________________ William Fadel, PhD, Chair ______________________________________ Spencer Lourens, PhD ______________________________________ Ying Zhang, PhD ii © 2019 Tyler Ison iii DEDICATION To my parents (Scott and Holly Ison) and my siblings (Victoria and Elizabeth). iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor Dr. William Fadel for all of the guidance and support he provided throughout my project. I am truly grateful for all the help and instruction that you have provided me over the course of this work. I would also like to thank Dr. Spencer Lourens for the time and help with the data scraping that he attributed to me and my project. I would also like to thank Dr. John Boardman for all his encouragement, support and guidance throughout my time spent at Franklin College. Finally, I would like to thank my wonderful parents, Scott and Holly Ison, and my siblings, Victoria and Elizabeth, for their support throughout my entire academic career, and for their patience with me as I have been completing my degree. I could not have reached this point in my life without the guidance and support from all of you. v Tyler Ison THE GREAT ONE IS BORN: WAYNE GRETZKY’S MONUMENTAL SEASON Statistics and athletic sports have always had a strong connection that many critics, fans and statisticians utilize to determine how successful a team or an individual player might be over an entire season or even throughout one’s career. The success of a player or team is often characterized by investigating the consistency that has been shown throughout the season or career, which has led to more investigation of the streakiness of players. Studies have been done to examine great streaks, such as Joe DiMaggio’s 56- game hitting streak or Tiger Woods’ 142 consecutive cuts made streak, but what about the outstanding streak that occurred during the 1983-1984 NHL season? Wayne Gretzky, of the Edmonton Oilers, managed to showcase just how elite he was as a playmaker during that season. Gretzky produced a remarkable 51-game point streak, in which he recorded at least one goal or point in 51 consecutive games; a streak that has not received the recognition that it deserves. Using game-by-game data for the entire 1983-1984 NHL season for all players, the research looks at not only the evaluation of Gretzky’s streak, but also compares his production and streak to the remainder of the league. Gretzky demonstrated why he is one of the greatest players to ever step foot on the ice, and his elite status is shown throughout this analysis. Comparing Gretzky’s streak to that of DiMaggio’s was shown to be a little challenging but, some general conclusions were made based on the comparison of analyses that were performed; but without the proper statistics being readily available, it is hard to adequately dictate which streak is ultimately more impressive or more rare. William Fadel, PhD, Chair vi TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables .................................................................................................................. viii List of Figures ................................................................................................................... ix List of Abbreviations ...........................................................................................................x Introduction ..........................................................................................................................1 Methods................................................................................................................................5 Obtaining the Data ........................................................................................................5 Analysis..........................................................................................................................5 Results ................................................................................................................................10 Conclusion .........................................................................................................................17 Appendix A ........................................................................................................................20 References ..........................................................................................................................26 Curriculum Vitae vii LIST OF TABLES Table A.1: Wayne Gretzky’s Game-by-Game Breakdown ...............................................20 Table A.2: Point Streaks Obtained by Wayne Gretzky .....................................................21 Table A.3: Scoring Droughts Obtained by Wayne Gretzky ..............................................22 Table A.4: Joe DiMaggio’s Game-by-Game Breakdown ..................................................23 Table A.5: Hitting Streaks Obtained by Joe DiMaggio .....................................................24 Table A.6: Hitting Slumps Obtained by Joe DiMaggio .....................................................25 viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Wayne Gretzky Moving Average .......................................................................10 Figure 2: Joe DiMaggio Moving Average .........................................................................11 Figure 3: Simulations of Wayne Gretzky’s 51-Game Point Streak ...................................12 Figure 4: Simulations of Joe DiMaggio’s 56-Game Hitting Streak ..................................13 Figure 5: Distribution of Point Streaks Obtained for all NHL Players ..............................14 Figure 6: Total Points Accumulated for all NHL Players..................................................14 Figure 7: Point Streaks Obtained for all NHL Players ......................................................15 Figure 8: Distribution of Point Streak Lengths Obtained for 10,000 Simulations for Wayne Gretzky’s 1983-1984 Season .................................................................................16 Figure 9: Distribution of Hitting Streak Lengths Obtained for 10,000 Simulations for Joe DiMaggio’s 1941 Season.............................................................................................16 ix LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS NHL National Hockey League MLB Major League Baseball x INTRODUCTION Athletic sports have always had a fascinating connection with statistics, regardless of the sport. Different sports utilize different statistics to determine the likelihoods of different outcomes; as well as to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of individual player or team performances. Sports fans and statisticians tend to utilize sports specific statistics to dictate the success of a team or individual player over a season or their entire career; often comparing players across the same season, as well as different generations. Player and team success are often considered by investigating streakiness, also referred to as consistency, to determine overall efficiency for an entire season, career, or length of time. Streaks are difficult to measure, because there are no rules defining what constitutes a meaningful streak; in certain ways, a streak can be related to a degree of variation that exists in the data. However, streaks are important to show that binary outcomes in sports can, on occasion, defy expectation (1). Individual player performance and player streaks have more commonly been investigated in sports, such as baseball and golf. One of the most common sport streak investigations is Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak, that he obtained during the 1941 MLB season. Many fans, experts, and critics believe this is a feat that will never be beaten. Some believe that it should have never happened at all (2). Numerous studies involving simulations have been conducted to test the probability or likelihood of a hitting streak of this length to be replicated, exceeded, or miraculously occur. Statistics have been used to investigate several other streaks within the game of baseball over the years. These include: Ted Williams’ 84-game on-base streak in 1949, Joe Sewell’s 115- 1 game streak of not striking out in 1929, and the 8-game hitting streak of hitting at least one home run in each game shared by three players (3). Along with baseball, streaks and player performances have been compared within the game of golf. One of the most incredible being Tiger Woods’ 142 consecutive cuts made streak from 1998 to 2005. This streak may be considered the most difficult and most impressive in all of sports by many mathematicians, experts, and fans of the game due to the challenges that golfers face. Golf is a sport with a much different aspect; it is a game where each golfer is competing against more than one hundred additional golfers in any given tournament. Following the first two rounds, which consists of 36-holes, roughly half of the golfers are cut and sent home from the tournament, so golfer consistency is critical. For Tiger Woods to have such consistency to continuously make cut after cut is impressive, but for Woods
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