Organized Crime and Instability in Central Africa a Threat Assessment

Organized Crime and Instability in Central Africa – DRAFT 28/06/2011 Organized Crime and Instability in Central Africa A threat assessment Draft 28/06/11 1 Organized Crime and Instability in Central Africa – DRAFT 28/06/2011 Main findings and recommendations.................................................................................. 4 Executive summary............................................................................................................. 5 Introduction....................................................................................................................... 19 Conflict and Crime............................................................................................................ 23 Drug flows ........................................................................................................................ 45 Cannabis from the DRC to the region........................................................................... 47 Mineral resource flows ..................................................................................................... 60 Tin ore from Eastern DRC via East Africa to Asia ...................................................... 66 Gold from DRC and CAR via East Africa to Dubai and the world.............................. 81 Diamonds from the DRC, CAR and Zimbabwe via East Africa to the world.............. 92 Environmental resource flows ........................................................................................ 110 Timber from the DRC to East Africa.......................................................................... 111 Wildlife from Central Africa to East Asia .................................................................. 117 Product flows .................................................................................................................. 122 Firearms from the world to the region ........................................................................ 124 Organized crime as a source of conflict finance and instability ..................................... 130 How much money? ..................................................................................................... 131 Breaking the link between crime and instability......................................................... 133 Implications for policy.................................................................................................... 134 2 Organized Crime and Instability in Central Africa – DRAFT 28/06/2011 [insert map of region] 3 Organized Crime and Instability in Central Africa – DRAFT 28/06/2011 Main findings and recommendations Conflict in Central Africa appears to have declined remarkably in recent years. The remaining instability and violence, which predominantly affect the Eastern DRC, seem to be increasingly the result of criminal acts in a context of persistent lawlessness and weak state institutions, rather than the product of war. That context makes it difficult to provide the criminal justice response that crimes such as murder, rape and trafficking in children require. Although political grievances remain, much of the current instability and lawlessness is tied to activities such as trafficking in minerals and other forms of contraband. Those profiting include members of illegal armed groups and corrupt elements in the military, who have an economic interest in maintaining the current situation. Militant organizations may have had political origins, but today, many could be better described as criminal groups. The largest source of finance for these groups is the minerals trade. The illicit trade in Congolese gold alone is worth an estimated US$120 million, about ten times the value of the country’s licit gold exports and about twice the value of coffee, its largest agricultural export. Other sources of illegal income include trafficking in cannabis, illicit timber and elephant ivory. Unless the flows of contraband are addressed, incentives for armed groups to perpetuate instability, lawlessness and violence will persist and it will be extremely difficult to build state capacity in this region. The current approach to tackling the instability in the Eastern DRC has focused heavily on the military. Fighting insurgencies requires soldiers, but fighting crime requires a functional and accessible criminal justice system. Building law enforcement capacity in the region requires capacity-building and reform in the police, courts and prisons. In parallel to this long-term effort, immediate responses are needed to undercut the financing of armed groups. There are a number of efforts from governments and international organizations to regulate the mineral supply chain. The idea is to promote transparency and provide certification that the minerals are not funding armed groups. All of these initiatives require a mechanism to ensure the integrity of shipments from mine sites to the point of export. Toward this end, a quick impact project aimed at curtailing trafficking and building the capacity of the local police could build positive momentum in the Eastern DRC. The transport of bulky minerals like cassiterite requires the use of roads, and there are a limited number of useable roads in the Eastern DRC. A large share of the contraband cassiterite comes from a single area: Bisié in Walikale territory. International police presently stationed in the region could partner with the Congolese Mining Police to ensure the security of the relatively small land area required for transporting this commodity. 4 Organized Crime and Instability in Central Africa – DRAFT 28/06/2011 Executive summary This study was undertaken to inform programme development efforts in the context of UNODC’s regional programme approach. The Great Lakes region of Central Africa is a region of vast natural resources – and great potential - with a tragic history. Remarkable progress has been made in some countries, while others are only now beginning to find their feet. Many of the problems facing the region stretch back to colonial times, but the current situation is best explained by reference to more recent events. By some estimates, over five million people died during the eight-country conflict known as the Second Congo War which started in 1998, making it one of the deadliest conflicts since World War II. The human impact has been tremendous: communities have been displaced, weapons disseminated, the population traumatized, and the economy decimated. Although the formal hostilities ended in 2002-2003, violence has continued to afflict the Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Smouldering grievances, often highly local ones, were again stirred to a blaze. Ethnic tensions in Ituri, a region in Orientale province, stretch back many decades, but violence surged again after the end of the war. The Kivu provinces experienced continuing bouts of extreme brutality fuelled by competition for land and resources, as well as by ethnic grievances. Today, however, the DRC is in a state of transition. Deaths due to disease and malnutrition, tied in part to the displacement caused by violence, continue, but the World Bank estimates that there were only 610 battlefield deaths in 2008. Though no one is declaring victory yet, it appears that the scale of the conflict has substantially declined. The violence that remains, however, is a potent mix of interpersonal violence and the continuing presence of armed groups across the Eastern DRC, much of which is connected to the exploitation of natural resources. The violence is preventing the region as a whole from benefiting from development opportunities that would come with stability. Armed groups as profiteers Today, there are between 6,500 and 13,000 active members of armed groups in the Eastern DRC. The most prominent of the armed groups is a Hutu militia, the Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR), which has between 2,400 and 4,000 members. Its Tutsi equivalent, the Congrès national pour la défense du peuple (CNDP), was largely integrated into the Congolese army in recent years, although a parallel administration continues to control many of its members. It is estimated to have 1,000 to 2,000 members who remain non-integrated. There is also a large number of local militias, generically known as ‘Mai Mai,’ most of which lack a coherent political objective but have been implicated in a variety of criminal endeavours. Additionally, elements of the Congolese military have been implicated in the crimes being committed in the Eastern DRC. According to the United Nations Group of Experts on the DRC, President Kabila has recognized the involvement of criminal networks 5 Organized Crime and Instability in Central Africa – DRAFT 28/06/2011 within the Congolese military in illegally exploiting the DRC’s natural resources. The involvement of the military has resulted in parallel command structures, insubordination, and the military’s constitutional duty to protect civilians and provide security. According to the Group of Experts, the criminal involvement of the military ranges from “illegal taxation, protection rackets, and indirect commercial control, to more direct coercive control. Taken together, the consequences of this involvement in the exploitation of natural resources by networks within the army are an important cause of insecurity and conflict in the Eastern part of the country.”1 Armed groups have a vested interest in perpetuating the conflict, as they are profiting from the instability. They are two broad

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