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Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ) Buy (Maintained)

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Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ) Buy (Maintained) Indonesia Results Review 10 November 2020 Property | Real Estate Pakuwon Jati (PWON IJ) Buy (Maintained) Pricing-In The Bottom Of The Cycle; BUY Target Price (Return): IDR520 (23.2%) Price: IDR422 Market Cap: USD1,430m Avg Daily Turnover (IDR/USD) 38,793m/2.64m BUY with new IDR520 TP from IDR460, 23% upside and c.5% yield. Analysts 9M20 earnings stood at IDR601bn, missing our/Street estimates at 30%/40%. However, 3Q20 earnings recovered from 2Q20’s loss of Christopher Andre Benas IDR196bn to a IDR118bn profit, while revenue tripled from 2Q20’s low of +6221 5093 9847 IDR324bn, to IDR1.07trn. Despite a 38% YoY drop, sales have started to [email protected] recover from lower discounts in rental and service charges. We should see this trend continue in 4Q20, especially after the second round of large-scale social restrictions (PSBB). Ghibran Al Imran +6221 5093 9842 Recovering revenue through smaller discounts. Pakuwon Jati’s 3Q20 [email protected] revenue was at IDR1.07trn (+231% QoQ, -38% YoY), and IDR3.0trn in 9M20 (-42% YoY), at 55%/64% of our/Street estimates – missing our Share Performance (%) expectations as another PSBB was announced in 3Q. From our discussions YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m with Management, had it not been for the PSBB, rental discounts could have Absolute (26.0) 19.9 8.8 20.6 (29.1) decreased to 0-30% (from 50% currently), with service charges already fully Relative (10.7) 13.2 5.8 4.8 (14.9) paid. With the PSBB eased, we believe the company may start to charge full rental rates by 4Q20-1Q21. In addition, occupancy remained at an 52-wk Price low/high (IDR) 268 – 605 average of 93%, albeit slightly down from 96% at end-2019. Note that retail leasing comprised 44% of total revenue. We saw some decline in Pakuwon Jati Tbk (PWON IJ) Price Close Relative to Jakarta Composite Index (RHS) occupancy at PWON’s Gandaria City mall during the pandemic. However, 630 116 occupancy did not fall below 90%, and will likely rebound in FY21 as 580 111 economy starts to recover. 530 106 Margin has improved. Amidst lower traffic at its malls, PWON has also 480 101 been saving on costs in utilities, outsourcing, as well as lowering salaries of 430 96 some of its Management. As a result, EBIT margin recovered to 42.4% in 380 91 3Q20 (from a loss in 2Q, and 52.8% in 3Q19). EBITDA margins are also 330 86 nearly back to 3Q19’s level of 59.3%, currently at 55.9%. 280 81 230 76 Marketing sales remain soft at IDR725bn as of 9M20, representing a Jul-20 Jul-20 Apr-20 Apr-20 Oct-20 Oct-20 Jan-20 Jun-20 Feb-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Mar-20 Nov-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Aug-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Sep-20 May-20 29% drop YoY. However, the amount was already low in 2019, given the May-20 slow apartment market. Source: Bloomberg Reiterate BUY with IDR520 TP, set at a 50% discount to NAV, or at its 5-year mean. With its numbers already recovering in 3Q20, we believe 2Q20 represents the bottom for rental charges, hotel occupancy, as well as marketing sales. We estimate a recovery in 4Q20, through a vaccine being commercialised by the year-end, which would result in the lifting of PSBB. Forecasts and Valuation Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Total turnover (IDRb) 7,081 7,202 5,515 6,587 7,048 Recurring net profit (IDRb) 3,107 2,951 2,370 3,065 3,464 Recurring net profit growth (%) 30.2 (5.0) (19.7) 29.3 13.0 Recurring EPS (IDR) 64.50 61.27 49.22 63.65 71.93 DPS (IDR) 10.89 9.66 19.11 6.00 7.92 Recurring P/E (x) 6.54 6.89 8.57 6.63 5.87 P/B (x) 1.61 1.36 1.22 1.07 0.94 Dividend Yield (%) 2.6 2.3 4.5 1.4 1.9 Return on average equity (%) 22.2 19.7 12.7 14.8 14.9 InterestNet debt cover to equity (x) (%) 12.65 3.1 net 15.17 cash net cash9.67 net 13.64 cash net 16.92 cash Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Pakuwon Jati Indonesia Results Review 10 November 2020 Property | Real Estate Financial Exhibits Asia Financial summary (IDR) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Indonesia Recurring EPS 64.50 61.27 49.22 63.65 71.93 Property EPS 52.80 56.47 41.71 54.60 62.61 Pakuwon Jati DPS 10.89 9.66 19.11 6.00 7.92 PWON IJ BVPS 261.55 310.87 345.06 393.23 447.42 Buy Return on average equity (%) 22.2 19.7 12.7 14.8 14.9 Return on average assets (%) 10.5 10.6 7.6 9.2 9.5 Valuation basis In our SOP valuation, we use DCF to value its recurring- Valuation metrics Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F income, and RNAV to value its property projects. Recurring P/E (x) 6.54 6.89 8.57 6.63 5.87 P/B (x) 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 Key drivers Dividend Yield (%) 2.6 2.3 4.5 1.4 1.9 i. New openings of retail malls and other EV/EBITDA (x) 3.46 3.22 2.96 2.22 1.40 development properties; ii. Launching of products to drive marketing sales; iii. Favourable tax incentives and policy rates. Income statement (IDRb) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Total turnover 7,081 7,202 5,515 6,587 7,048 Gross profit 4,050 4,058 3,097 3,913 4,354 Key risks EBITDA 3,539 3,639 3,218 3,634 4,099 i. Weakening of the IDR; Depreciation and amortisation (80) (188) (581) (271) (333) ii. Unfavourable policy rates; Operating profit 3,459 3,451 2,636 3,363 3,765 iii. Delays in construction progress, leading to lower revenue recognition. Net interest (36) 53 8 34 58 Pre-tax profit 2,854 3,271 2,276 2,953 3,365 Taxation (27) (31) (46) (59) (67) Company Profile Reported net profit 2,543 2,720 2,009 2,630 3,015 Established in 1989, Pakuwon Jati is a diversified real Recurring net profit 3,107 2,951 2,370 3,065 3,464 estate developer focused on Jakarta and Surabaya. The company's portfolio includes retail, residential, Cash flow (IDRb) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F commercial and hospitality projects. It is the pioneer of Change in w orking capital (798) (1,030) 371 (398) (20) the superblock concept in Indonesia – a large-scale integrated mixed-use development of retail shopping Cash flow from operations 2,071 1,868 3,831 3,229 3,816 malls, offices, condominiums, and hotels. Capex (905) (811) (1,071) (1,071) (1,071) Cash flow from investing activities (905) (811) (1,071) (1,071) (1,071) Dividends paid (290) (289) (420) (310) (406) Cash flow from financing activities (112) (1,204) (687) (248) (357) Cash at beginning of period 3,406 4,460 4,313 6,385 8,294 Net change in cash 1,054 (147) 2,072 1,909 2,388 Ending balance cash 4,460 4,313 6,385 8,294 10,682 Balance sheet (IDRb) Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Total cash and equivalents 4,460 4,313 6,385 8,294 10,682 Tangible fixed assets 4,111 4,911 4,587 5,138 5,457 Total investments 11,263 11,303 11,548 11,858 12,063 Total other assets 172 238 183 218 233 Total assets 25,018 26,095 27,109 30,159 33,221 Total long-term debt 4,934 3,885 3,777 4,194 4,194 Total liabilities 9,706 8,000 7,148 7,533 7,702 Shareholders' equity 12,596 14,971 16,618 18,938 21,547 Minority interests 2,716 3,124 3,343 3,688 3,972 Total equity 15,312 18,096 19,961 22,626 25,519 Total liabilities & equity 25,018 26,095 27,109 30,159 33,221 Key metrics Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20F Dec-21F Dec-22F Revenue grow th (%) 23.2 1.7 (23.4) 19.4 7.0 Recurring net profit grow th (%) 30.2 (5.0) (19.7) 29.3 13.0 Gross margin (%) 57.2 56.3 56.2 59.4 61.8 Recurring net profit margin (%) 43.9 41.0 43.0 46.5 49.2 Dividend payout ratio (%) 20.6 17.1 45.8 11.0 12.6 Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Pakuwon Jati Indonesia Results Review 10 November 2020 Property | Real Estate Figure 1: 3Q20 results review Results (IDR bn) 3Q19 2Q20 3Q20 QoQ YoY 9M19 9M20 YoY %RHB %Cons Sales 1,735 324 1,073 231.4% -38.2% 5,240 3,047 -41.9% 55.2% 64.6% COGS (669) (333) (533) 59.9% -20.5% (2,172) (1,539) -29.2% -63.6% -69.7% Gross profit 1,066 (9) 540 N/A -49.3% 3,068 1,508 -50.9% 48.7% 60.1% Operating expenses (149) (94) (85) -8.9% -42.7% (422) (308) -27.0% -66.9% -84.0% Operating profit 917 (103) 455 N/A -50.4% 2,646 1,199 -54.7% 45.5% 56.0% EBITDA 1,029 24 600 2,384% -41.8% 2,984 1,603 -46.3% 50.9% 66.0% Net profit 785 (196) 118 N/A -85.0% 2,150 601 -72.1% 29.9% 40.7% Gross margin 61.4% -2.9% 50.3% 58.5% 49.5% Opex to sales -8.6% -28.9% -8.0% -8.1% -10.1% Operating margin 52.8% -31.8% 42.4% 50.5% 39.4% EBITDA margin 59.3% 7.5% 55.9% 56.9% 52.6% Net margin 45.2% -60.7% 11.0% 41.0% 19.7% Source: Company data, RHB Figure 2: PWON’s discount to NAV band Source: RHB Figure 3: NAV calculation Area Utilization Price/sqm Market Value Ownership NAV Property Assets NAV/Share (ha) Ratio (%) (RpM) ( Rp bn) (%) (Rp bn) Landbanks Pakuwon City 205 85% 15,000 26,138 100% 26,138 543 Central Surabaya - Tunjungan City 3.2 100% 20,000 640 100% 640 13 Undeveloped East Surabaya 21 100% 5,000 1,050 100% 1,050 22 West Surabaya 176 100% 5,000 8,800 100% 8,800 183 Others 15 100% 5,000 730 100% 730 15 TB Simatupang 4.5 70% 20,000 630 100% 630 13 TOTAL Land Value 424 37,988 789 NAV after tax 5% 36,088 749 Development Revenue 100% 4,728 98 Recurring Revenue 100% 11,258 234 Total 52,074 1,081 Total Shares (in mn) 48,160 Net Cash (1,744) (36) Net Asset Value 50,330 1,045 NAV Discount 50% Target Price 523 Market Price (IDR) 430 Upside Potential 22% Source: RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 Pakuwon Jati Indonesia Results Review 10 November 2020 Property | Real Estate Recommendation Chart Date Recommendation Target Price Price Price Close 2020-04-28 Buy 460 360 850 2019-11-25 Buy 780 560 na 780 780 780 460 750 2019-07-04 Neutral 780 740 2018-12-26 Buy 780 590 650 Source: RHB, Bloomberg 550 450 350 250 Nov-15 Feb-17 May-18 Aug-19 Source: RHB, Bloomberg See important disclosures at the end of this report 4 made and information currently available to RHB and are subject to known and RHB Guide to Investment Ratings unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievement to be materially different from any future results, Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months performance or achievement, expressed or implied by such forward-looking Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer- statements.
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