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Integration of Paleotempestology with Coastal Risk and Vulnerability

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Integration of Paleotempestology with Coastal Risk and Vulnerability Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Doctoral Dissertations Graduate School 2010 Integration of paleotempestology with coastal risk and vulnerability assessment: case studies from the Dominican Republic and Nicaragua Devyani Kar Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_dissertations Part of the Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences and Meteorology Commons Recommended Citation Kar, Devyani, "Integration of paleotempestology with coastal risk and vulnerability assessment: case studies from the Dominican Republic and Nicaragua" (2010). LSU Doctoral Dissertations. 2009. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_dissertations/2009 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Doctoral Dissertations by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please [email protected]. INTEGRATION OF PALEOTEMPESTOLOGY WITH COASTAL RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: CASE STUDIES FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NICARAGUA A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College In partial fulfillment of the Requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy In The Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences By Devyani Kar, B.Plan., School of Planning and Architecture, New Delhi, India, 2001 M.E.M., Duke University, 2003 December, 2010 To my parents, Dr. Prabhat Kumar Kar Dr. Sanghamitra Kar ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to offer my immense gratitude to Dr. Kam-biu Liu, my advisor and committee chair, for his guidance and support. This dissertation would not have been possible without his endless patience, persistence, and encouragement at every step. I would like to thank Dr. Nina Lam, Dewitt Braud, Dr. Jaye Cable, and Dr. Melanie Gall for serving on my committee and assisting me with various aspects of this work. Sincere thanks to Dr. Escobar, Dr. Jagger, and Dr. Elsner for discussing research ideas and for patiently explaining complicated statistical models. I would like to acknowledge Inter American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) for providing funding for this study. National Science Foundation (NSF), the Graduate School at Louisiana State University (LSU), and the Department of Oceanography at LSU helped with travel funds to present my work at national and international conferences. An award from American Association of Geographers (AAG) contributed toward the cost of Spanish immersion in Nicaragua to better prepare me for field work. Thanks to Dr. Jaye Cable and Chris Whittaker for assistance with 137CS and 210Pb analysis; Floyd DeMers for help with grain size analysis; and to Dr. Terry McCloskey and Tom Bianchette for their help with loss-on-ignition analysis. I am grateful to Dr. Lisa Kennedy, Allison LeBlanc, Pedro Martinez, and Dr. Terry McCloskey for helping with coring and data collection in the Dominican Republic. Research in Nicaragua would not have been possible without Claudia Taleno and Yelba Flores – a big Thank You! I am also thankful to the wonderful people of the Dominican Republic and Nicaragua for their kindness and willingness to help. A special thanks to Aura Cruz, my wonderful Spanish iii teacher, for her patience and good humor in teaching me to talk like a “Nicaragüense.” Highland Coffees provided the caffeine fix for late nights and early mornings and Papa John’s and Atcha Bakery kept this family alive. I am indebted to all my friends who good- naturedly listened to my venting and forgave me for being an erratic, forgetful, social klutz. And much credit goes to my girlfriends for organizing lunches and “ladies’ nights” to keep me in good spirits. These last few years would have been unbearable if not for my husband, Dr. Plamen Arnaudov; whose love, patience, and wonderful omelets kept me going; especially when I was overwhelmed and ready to quit. Thanks to my sister, Devangana, for believing in me and to my parents who made great sacrifices so I could come this far - I could never fully express my gratitude to them in words. And finally, thanks to Kaya for all the joy and laughter - everyday is worth waking up for! iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................... iii ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................. ix CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................... 1 1.1 Purpose of This Dissertation .................................................................................... 1 1.2 The Project ............................................................................................................... 1 1.3 Background .............................................................................................................. 2 1.4 Hurricanes and Paleotempestology .......................................................................... 2 1.5 Risk Analysis and Prediction Using Paleotempestology ......................................... 3 1.6 Study Areas .............................................................................................................. 3 1.7 Research Questions .................................................................................................. 4 1.8 Document Structure ................................................................................................. 5 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW .............................................................................. 7 2.1 Proxies and Methods Used in Paleotempestology ................................................... 7 2.1.1 Hurricane Overwash ................................................................................. 8 2.1.2 Dating ........................................................................................................ 9 2.1.3 Reservoir Effect ........................................................................................ 9 2.2 Why Don’t All Storms Leave a Signature? ........................................................... 10 2.2.1 Relative Height of Storm Surge .............................................................. 10 2.2.2 Paleotempestological Sensitivity of the Lake ......................................... 11 2.3 Sea Level Change .................................................................................................. 12 2.3.1 Caribbean Sea Level Change .................................................................. 13 2.3.2 Global Warming and Sea Level Rise ...................................................... 14 2.3.3 Global Warming and Change in Intensity and Frequency of Hurricanes14 2.4 Climate Change in the Caribbean .......................................................................... 16 2.5 Seismology of the Caribbean Basin ....................................................................... 17 2.6 Tsunamis in the Caribbean..................................................................................... 18 2.7 Distinguishing Between a Tsunami and a Hurricane ............................................. 19 2.8 Hazard Regimes ..................................................................................................... 21 2.9 Risk Analysis and Prediction Using Paleotempestology ...................................... 23 2.9.1 Probability of Occurrence ...................................................................... 23 2.9.2 Hazard Analysis ...................................................................................... 25 2.9.3 Vulnerability .......................................................................................... 26 v 2.10 Emergence of Vulnerability Science .................................................................. 27 2.11 Vulnerability Modeling Approaches ................................................................... 27 2.12 Vulnerability Indicators ...................................................................................... 28 2.13 Normalization of Vulnerability Indicators .......................................................... 30 2.14 Spatial Representation of Risk ............................................................................ 30 2.14.1 Spatial Representation of Vulnerable Population ................................ 31 2.14.2 Spatial Representation of Probability of Strike .................................... 31 2.14.3 Spatial Representation of Hazards ........................................................ 32 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................... 33 3.1 Field Methods ........................................................................................................ 33 3.2 Laboratory Methods ............................................................................................... 33 3.2.1 Loss-on-Ignition ..................................................................................... 33 3.2.2 14C Dating .............................................................................................. 34 3.2.3 137Cs and 210Pb Dating ............................................................................ 35 3.2.4 Grain Size Analysis ...............................................................................
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