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Tellus (2007), 59A, 529Ð537 C 2007 The Authors Journal compilation C 2007 Blackwell Munksgaard Printed in Singapore. All rights reserved TELLUS

Perspective: coordinating paleoclimate research on tropical cyclones with hurricane- theory and modelling

∗ By AMY FRAPPIER1 , THOMAS KNUTSON2, KAM-BIU LIU3 and KERRY EMANUEL4 1Department of Geology and Geophysics, Boston College, Devlin Hall 213, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467 USA 2Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, Princeton, NJ 08542 USA 3Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, State University, 1002 Energy, Coast, and Environment Building, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA 4Program in Atmospheres, , and Climate, MIT, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA

(Manuscript received 1 September 2006; in final form 3 April 2007)

ABSTRACT Extending the meteorological record back in time can offer critical data for assessing -climate links. While , the study of ancient storms, can provide a more realistic view of past ‘worst case scenarios’, future environmental conditions may have no analogues in the paleoclimate record. The primary value in paleotem- pestology records arises from their ability to quantify climateÐtropical cyclone interactions by sampling tropical cyclone activity during pre-historic periods with a wider range of different . New paleotempestology proxies are just beginning to be applied, encouraging new collaboration between the paleo and tropical cyclone dynamics com- munities. The aim of this paper is to point out some paths toward closer coordination by outlining target needs of the tropical cyclone theory and modelling community and potential contributions of the paleotempestology community. We review recent advances in paleotempestology, summarize the range of types and quality of paleodata generation, and identify future research opportunities for paleotempestology, tropical cyclone dynamics and impacts and attribution communities. orological record back in time by exploiting documentary and 1. Introduction geological/biological proxy archives of TC activity (Liu, 2004; Recent advances in the field of tropical cylone (TC) dynam- Nott, 2004; Liu, 2007). ics have raised new questions about the importance of anthro- Paleotempestology records provide a better estimate of the pogenic climate change for future hurricane hazards in the near ‘worst case scenario’ than conventional historical hurricane and long term (Elsner and Liu, 2003; Emanuel, 2001, 2002, databases because very long records are more likely to sam- 2003; Camargo and Sobel, 2004; De et al., 2004; Elsner et al., ple very rare, catastrophic events with long recurrence inter- 2004; Emanuel and Nolan, 2004; Emanuel et al., 2004; Free vals of hundreds to thousands of years (Liu and Fearn, 1993; et al., 2004; Murnane, 2004; Walsh, 2004; Wu and Wang, 2004; Liu and Fearn, 2000; Nott and Hayne, 2001; Nott, 2003a). For Emanuel, 2005; Pielke et al., 2005; Trenberth, 2005; Webster example, Liu (2004) documented a Gulf Coast ‘hyperactive et al., 2005). Reanalysis and documentary-based TC reconstruc- period’ about 3800 to 1000 yr ago during which catastrophic tions can overcome some of the limitations inherent in histor- hurricanes struck 3 to 5 times more frequently than during the ical meteorological data sets of TC activity (Liu et al., 2001; most recent millennium. Because, the ‘best case’ scenario—no Chenoweth, 2003; Landsea et al., 2004; Garc«õa-Herrera et al., major landfalls in populated areas—plays itself out regularly, 2005; Landsea et al., 2006; Kossin et al., 2007; Mock, 2004). paleotempestology is often the only source of data regarding Yet, regional gaps and the brevity of meteorological records re- very large/rare events in the tail of the distribution. While ‘hy- main problematic. Paleotempestology aims to extend the mete- peractive’ and ‘inactive’ periods are of similar interest for study- ing TC dynamics, the of extreme catastrophic cases ∗ is of far greater interest to society, which must bear the costs Corresponding author. e-mail: [email protected] mainly when TCs strike occupied locales. Brief meteorological No claim to U.S. government works. data sets sometimes grossly undersample the landfall probability DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00250.x of catastrophic TCs (Liu, 2004, 2007; Nott, 2003a; Nott et al.,

Tellus 59A (2007), 4 529 530 A. FRAPPIER ET AL.

2007). Still, the concept of ‘recurrence interval’ assumes an in- For example, probability theory could be applied to estimate the variant probability field. To the extent that TCs are a manifesta- likelihood of a given number or fraction of independent sites tion of shifting climatic conditions, the spectrum of recurrence showing changes of a given sign in global TC frequency, result- interval risk is also non-stationary. Yet, expected future climate ing in adaptive estimates of sampling requirements needed to conditions forced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases lack close obtain certain confidence levels for changes in global TC fre- paleoclimatic analogues (e.g. Crowley, 1990; Mitchell, 1990; quency. Scenarios in which inferred TC changes relatively large Covey et al., 1996;). For example, the Climatic Opti- might be addressed sooner, as fewer sites would be sufficient mum (∼6000Ð9000 y.b.p.), a warm period when many climatic to determine first-order sensitivity as a function of past climate boundary conditions were similar to today, was characterized by conditions. seasonal rather than mean annual warming (Crowley, 1990). Pa- leotempestology data alone are unlikely to provide an accurate 2.2. Sampling of tropical cyclone behaviour from very estimate of the future probability of extreme events. On the other different climates hand, paleotempestology records that have been produced from more recent intervals provide better analogues to present and Each proxy type has a different applicable time frame (Table 1). future climates. Thus, the most valuable contribution of pale- Very long TC records (e.g. thousands of years) provide better otempestology will likely be as a unique source of observations sampling of rare extreme events. If we assume that the TC cli- critical for assessing tropical cycloneÐclimate interactions across mate is stationary during the period, this allows investigators to a range of climatic conditions (Cronin, 1999). better estimate the underlying (stationary) probability density A growing suite of high-resolution paleotempestology data function. This information, useful for documenting the amount has the potential to shed light on problems with which the of past variability in the real world, is necessary for assessing broader TC dynamics community is wrestling (Cohen, 2001; the degree to which any secular trend (e.g. warming during the Miller, 2005; Miller et al., 2006; Frappier et al, 2007; Nott, instrumental era) is unusual with respect to past variations, as has 2007). The aim of this paper is to point out some ways toward been done by several groups for the case of Northern Hemisphere closer coordination between the TC dynamics and paleotem- mean over the past millennium (e.g. Mann et al., pestology communities by outlining target needs of the former 1999; Jones et al., 2001; Mann et al., 2003; Jones and Mann, and potential contributions of the latter. We review recent ad- 2004; Rutherford et al., 2005). Analogously, climate change de- vances in paleotempestology, summarize the potential types and tection and attribution studies for TCs stand to benefit from fur- quality of paleodata generation and identify opportunities for ther development and analysis of paleotempestology data sets. collaboration. Paleotempestology data can also define rates of change in storm activity parameters (e.g. Liu et al., 2001; Elsner et al, 2004; Zhao and Chu, 2006). 2. Tropical cyclone theory and modelling Paleoclimatic variability provides a series of natural exper- efforts: potential contributions from iments from which valuable observational constraints regard- paleotempestology ing TC- can be derived by sampling TC be- haviour during very different climates. Independent proxy re- 2.1. Substantial regional coverage of long-time records constructions of paleo-TCs, paleoclimate boundary conditions of tropical cyclone activity and forcing factors can provide well-grounded estimates of cli- Attempts to reconstruct paleo- from various proxy mate change and therefore climate sensitivity, assuming the measures at a limited number of locations, analogous to mete- climate forcing can be estimated well enough. For TCs, the orological stations (e.g. Mann et al. 1999), are made more fea- Last Glacial Maximum may provide a sufficiently large climate sible by the relatively large spatial correlation scales of long change signal that a robust TC response can be detected in proxy timescale temperature anomalies. For global paleotempestology records. With sufficient regional coverage, this finding could reconstructions, spatial correlations must also be considered, serve as a key evaluation point for models that are being used as modern TC activity increases in one region are sometimes to simulate TC-climate connections with respect to global-scale offset by decreases in another basin (c.f., Atlantic vs. Eastern changes in climate (Hamilton and Hemler, 1997; Henderson- Pacific). Therefore, obtaining a reliable picture of past global Sellers et al.,1998; Knutson et al, 1998; Knutson et al., 2001; TC occurrence might require extensive geographically dispersed Jagger et al. 2002; Camargo and Sobel, 2004; Knutson and sampling in order to distinguish between regional and global Tuleya, 2004; 1999; Webster et al., 2005). Although previously (tropics-wide) changes, and to detect any shifts in the areas of TC not available, this potential avenue of research has become more occurrence. possible by advances in paleotempestology techniques (Frappier Geographically dispersed sample sites would return quasi- et al, 2007; Nott et al., 2007). The failure of a modelling system independent samples of past activity, and the number of sites to simulate the proxy-derived behaviour of paleo-TCs could be required will vary according to the research question of interest. attributable to either problems with the TC simulations or to

Tellus 59A (2007), 4 COORDINATING PALEOTEMPESTOLOGY AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DYNAMICS 531 1993 Liu et al.,et al. Donnelly Cohen, 2001 Keen and Slingerland, Nott and Hayne, 2001 Reviewed in Nott, 2004 Nott, 2004 Nott, 2004 See multiple papers by ecay series) 10 ky b.p.)? > brief (days); very high-resolution analyses required; seasonality of storm strike can be identified. deposits from deep wave action by strong storms. of wave heights. Pre-Holocene record ( of wave heights. mineral lag deposits indicate destruc- tion/construction. are routine; storm surge direction of approach can be identified with spatial coring damage from ionizing radiation), mass sedimentation Coarse offshore sediment Bathtub-ring style record of wave heights. Bathtub-ring style record Bathtub-ring style record Sand splays and heavy Millennial-scale records C (), optical spin luminescence (OSL) dating (OSL parameters Notes References 14 intensity? intensity; storm surge height intensity; storm surge height recurrence interval spectrum windspeed intensity; storm surge height resolution cyclone Example Hourly Weekly Storm frequency Storm signal duration is Decadal Millennial Storm frequency/ Decadal Millennial Storm frequency/ Seasonal Millennial Storm surge height; Decadal Millennial Storm surge height; Seasonal Millennial Storm frequency/ O values (stable ratios), 18 + δ + + + + + 5 (year before Earliest likely (years) present) max min record time interval temporal Principle tropical 100 10 Typical applicable storm activity rochronology C; schle- CC Unknown UnknownC Unknown 5000 Unknown Storm frequency, 6000 C; MSR dating 5000 1000 6000 C; MSR 6000 dating 500 6,000 C 5000 6000 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 shallows shorelines nearshore reefs Offshore Beaches clastic beaches Coastal Coastal lagoons Carbonate Offshore and Paleotempestology Proxy Overview. Abbreviations are as follows: O values Proxy General Dating length archive location methods 18 deposits; tempestites Chenier sand morphology sediment rubble δ establishes time elapsed since last exposure of quartz or feldspar mineral grains to sunlight, based on post-burial accumulation of crystal lattice rate (MSR) dating (age determination based on MSR), U-series dating (application based on radioisotope ratio disequilibrium in the Uranium to Lead d Offshore shell Ridge Ð Ridge Ð beach Sand dune Coastal lagoon Ridge Ð Table 1. Coral aragonite

Tellus 59A (2007), 4 532 A. FRAPPIER ET AL. Lambert et al. 2005 Scott et al. 2003; Nott et al., 2007 2006 Donnelly et al. Lu and Liu, 2005; Miller et al., 2006 Frappier et al. 2007; Murgulet and Aharon, See multiple papers by , , dinoflagellates, phytoliths, . precision; two samples per year returns an annual storm/non-storm record; higher resolution is possible. analyses required; can resolve storm strikes spaced months to weeks apart; decadal storm activity is possible. translation speed control sea salt flux to ; high temporal resolution is possible are routine. Calendar year dating Very high-resolution Storm intensity and Millennial-scale records parameters Notes References amount (possibly intensity) (possibly precipitation amount) integrated wind intensity indicator intensity; storm surge height Storm frequency, intensity Storm frequency, or decadal or decadal resolution cyclone Example Seasonal Millennial Storm frequency, intensity Multi-proxy records e.g. Monthly Seasonal Storm frequency, Weekly Seasonal Weekly Seasonal Decadal Millennial Storm frequency/ + + + + + 4 4 6 6 (year before 10 Earliest likely + (years) present) max min record time interval temporal Principle tropical 1000 10 1000 10 100 10 Typical applicable storm activity C, C, 14 14 layer counting layer counting drochronol- ogy CC 4000 6000 C; den- 5000 14 14 14 high to low elevation Coastal caves U-series, Freshwater lakes Terrestrial forests; Terrestrial caves U-series, Coastal marshes cont’d O values O values Proxy General Dating length archive location methods 18 18 δ δ trace elements microfossil assemblages sediment Tree-ring Speleothem Lacustrine Table 1. Coastal marsh

Tellus 59A (2007), 4 COORDINATING PALEOTEMPESTOLOGY AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DYNAMICS 533 Gedzelman, 1998 n/a Lawrence, 1998 Patterson, 1998 Lawrence and n/a quantified temporarily impede coral growth records possible records possible within years to decades may not be distinguishable Low water can Short, high-resolution Short, high-resolution parameters Notes References (land-use interactions) (precipitation amount, storm intensity?) (precipitation amount, storm intensity?) resolution cyclone parameters resolution cyclone Example max min Likely temporal Potential tropical Daily DecadalDaily Terrestrial runoff DecadalDaily Storm frequency DecadalSeasonal Storm frequency Centennial Storm frequency, intensity Multiple storm impacts ? Unknown Unknown Storm frequency, intensity Sensitivity not yet + + + + + 5 5 6 4 4 (year before 10 Earliest likely + (years) present) max min record time interval temporal Principle tropical 100 10 10 10 20 10 Typical applicable storm activity rochronology counting counting C; U-series UnknownC; schle- 10 C; layer C; layer C 5000 14 14 14 14 14 rivers (marine basins and rivers?) (marine basins and rivers?) Coral reefs near Freshwater lakes Offshore Aquatic basins Aquatic basins O 18 cont’d δ O values Proxy General Dating length archive location methods 18 trace elements δ sediments sediments values Coral aragonite Fish Bivalve Lacustrine Table 1. Potential A toll proxy archives

Tellus 59A (2007), 4 534 A. FRAPPIER ET AL.

shortcomings in the simulations of large-scale environmental et al., 2007). Additional proxies are on the horizon, for example. conditions, such as sea surface temperatures (SST). A wider a proxy record of sea-spray found in a Pacific coastal range of TC proxy records is available to assess TC activity sen- (Murgulet and Aharon, 2006, unpublished data). sitivity to more recent climate intervals, such as the Medieval Proxy records, documentary sources and oral histories often Warm Period or Little (c.f. Liu et al., 2001; Miller et al., record post-storm impacts from TC events (including saltwater 2006). As new paleotempestology data sets are developed, more intrusion, rainfall-induced flooding, salt spray, fire, forest distur- valuable multi-proxy regional TC archives are being compiled bance and mass movements) and associated cultural responses from single site records (Mann, 2002). In past work of this type, (Liu et al., 2007; Lu and Liu, 2005, Cohen, personal communi- the understanding of aspects of dynamics was cation, 2003). Some regions of are already demonstrated successfully advanced when the community set as a priority sources of centuries-long documentary records (Liu et al., 2001) the development of paleo-records during key time intervals of of impacts to community infrastructure and homes, sanitation, interest, producing time-slice and gridded data sets (e.g. nutrition and health, forestry and agriculture and commerce. CLIMAP, 1984; Jagger et al., 2002). Records of paleotempest impacts on urban and rural commu- How has the paleotempestology work to date addressed these nities would support local and regional climate change impact issues? Established proxies Ð coastal sedimentary records of TC mitigation efforts by tracking the resilience and capacity of dif- storm surges Ð have generated testable hypotheses regarding con- ferent modes of development. Critical economic and - trols on storm track locations (Elsner et al., 2000; Liu and Fearn, related questions could be addressed: for example, when a major 2000). Paleotempestology has revealed times of rapid change in storm strikes, how does the maize crop fare compared to coffee? some TC basins (e.g. compare storm frequency stability between Storm impacts data are also of interest to specialists including ar- the Atlantic and Pacific: Liu et al., 2001; Nott 2003b; Liu, 2004). chaeologists, ecologists, water resource managers and foresters Establishing the timing and sign of regime shifts within and be- in TC regions (e.g. McDowell et al., 1996; McDowell, 2001). tween basins (Donnelly and Woodruff, 2007) can together help The positive effects of TC activity in different regions are also test potential climate system links and forcing factors. Recent of interest, including their roles in breaking , delivering advances in paleotempestology include emerging new proxies scarce moisture to desert regions and replenishing aquifers (e.g. (addressed below), more quantitative approaches to traditional DRBC, 2000; Gutzler and Ritchie, 2004). proxies and more detailed documentary data sets (Liu, 2007). The broader field of stands to contribute Coastal proxies, applied across the last 7000 yr in limited substantially to TC research by developing records of environ- locations, rely on storm-surge and wave-driven deposits, in- mental factors that have been implicated as TC forcing factors in cluding clastic washover deposits, beach ridges composed of the modern observational record (e.g. Klotzbach and Gray, 2004; coral, shell and/or sand, and dune geomorphic changes (Liu and Goldenberg and Shapiro, 1996). Potentially reconstructable fac- Fearn, 1993; Nott, 1997; Elsner et al., 2000; Liu and Fearn, 2000; tors include SSTs in the Main Development Regions, El Ni˜no Donnelly et al., Nott and Hayne, 2001; 2001a; Donnelly et al., Ð Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, thermocline depth, 2001b; Elsner and Liu, 2003; Nott, 2003a; Nott, 2003b; Nott, evaporative fluxes and tropical atmospheric organization. Re- 2004;Donnelly and Webb, 2004; Donnelly, 2005; Liu, 2007). gional parameters of primary interest for the Atlantic basin in- High-resolution sediment core analysis promises to capture a clude West African rainfall, Saharan dust fluxes, po- larger fraction of lower-intensity storm surge events, through sition of the North Atlantic high-pressure cell and Gulf Stream time-series analysis. Since the end of the last glaciation, sea flow rates. Unfortunately, existing paleo-records of most of these level rise has overrun earlier storm deposits, making it difficult agents are low-resolution and/or very widely spaced in space to use these deposits to assess TC activity prior to the last ∼5000 and time. Only a handful of SST proxy records are available in yr in most locations (see also Nott, 1997; Elsner et al., 2000; Liu the tropical Atlantic region for the last several thousand years, and Fearn, 2000). with temporal resolution of a ∼100Ð500 yr (e.g. R¬uhlemann High-resolution TC proxies, often containing annual layers, et al. 1999; deMenocal et al. 2000, Winter et al. 2000; Nyberg are poised to contribute important new tools to paleotempestol- et al. 2002). For the Pacific and Indian oceans, multi-century ogy, by extending records of storm frequency much further into SST proxy records are available (Wilson et al. 2006). Concomi- the past and developing decadally to seasonally resolved records. tant development of additional high-quality tropical and sub- Precipitation-based proxies exploit the characteristically low sta- tropical paleoclimate records will support quantitative studies of ble oxygen and hydrogen isotopic values of TC rainfall (see paleotempestÐclimate interactions. Lawrence and Gedzelman, 1996; Lawrence, 1998; Gedzelman et al., 2003; Pedersen et al., 2005). This rainfall proxy is un- 3. Conclusions likely to be much affected by sea level change, and has been ex- plored in (Cohen, 2001), (Patterson, 1998), tree The demand for greater fundamental understanding of TCÐ rings (Miller, 2005; Miller et al., 2006;), and cave climate interactions is converging from several corners, includ- (Malmquist, 1997; Schwehr, 1998; Frappier et al., 2007, Nott ing TC dynamics, climate change detection and attribution,

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