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The Operational Challenges of Forecasting TC Intensity Change in the Presence of Dry Air and Strong Vertical Shear
The Operational Challenges of Forecasting TC Intensity Change in the Presence of Dry Air and Strong Vertical Shear Jamie R. Rhome,* and Richard D. Knabb NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL 1. INTRODUCTION to an incomplete specification of the initial moisture conditions, dynamical model forecasts of middle- to Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity changes involve upper-tropospheric humidity often have large errors. complex interactions between many environmental Beyond the problems with observing and forecasting factors, including vertical wind shear and the humidity, TC intensity forecasts become particularly thermodynamic properties of the ambient atmosphere challenging when dry air is accompanied by moderate to and ocean. While the effects of each factor are not strong vertical shear. completely understood, even less is known about the Much of the current understanding on the response effects of these factors working in tandem. Emanuel et of a TC to vertical shear comes from idealized studies. It al. (2004) proposed that “storm intensity in a sheared has been shown that strong vertical shear typically results environment is sensitive to the ambient humidity” and in the convective pattern of the TC becoming cautioned “against considering the various environmental increasingly asymmetric followed by a downshear tilt of influences on storm intensity as operating independently the vortex (Frank and Ritchie 2001, Bender 1997). To from each other.” Along these lines, Dunion and Velden keep the tilted TC vortex quasi-balanced, the (2004) have examined the combined effects of vertical diabatically-driven secondary circulation aligns itself to shear and dry air on TCs during interactions with the produce an asymmetry in vertical motion that favors Saharan Air Layer (SAL). -
Floods from Hurricane Stan; Appeal No
CENTRAL AMERICA, MEXICO AND HAITI: FLOODS FROM 23 December 2005 HURRICANE STAN The Federation’s mission is to improve the lives of vulnerable people by mobilizing the power of humanity. It is the world’s largest humanitarian organization and its millions of volunteers are active in over 181 countries. In Brief Appeal No. 05EA021; Operations Update no. 03; Period covered: 17 October to 23 December, 2005; Appeal coverage: 79.2%. Click here to go directly to the attached Contributions List, also available on the website). Appeal history: • Launched on 7 October 2005 CHF 1,568,000 (USD 1,230,694 OR EUR 1,012,648) for 6 months to assist 10,250 families (51,250 beneficiaries). • A revised Emergency Appeal was issued on 17 October 2005, seeking CHF 6,175,760 (USD 4,780,996 or EUR 3,974,564) in cash, kind, or services to assist 10,050 families (50,250 beneficiaries) for 6 months. • Disaster Relief Emergency Funds (DREF) allocated: CHF 280,000 Outstanding needs: CHF 1,285,365 (USD 979,736 or EUR 825,457) Related Emergency or Annual Appeals: El Salvador: Floods and Volcanic Activity (Appeal 05EA020); Haiti: Floods (Appeal 22/2004); Bahamas, Cuba and Mexico: Hurricane Wilma (Appeal 05EA024); Central America: Annual Appeal (Appeal 05AA043); Pan American Disaster Response Unit: Annual Appeal (Appeal 05AA040) Operational Summary: Since the onset of the disaster, Costa Rican, Guatemalan, Honduran, Mexican, Nicaraguan and Haitian Red Cross Societies have been working untiringly to respond to the needs of the most affected families. Although many families have now been able to return to their homes, many of those affected remain in shelters or are staying in the homes of friends or relatives. -
ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005
MARCH 2008 ANNUAL SUMMARY 1109 ANNUAL SUMMARY Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005 JOHN L. BEVEN II, LIXION A. AVILA,ERIC S. BLAKE,DANIEL P. BROWN,JAMES L. FRANKLIN, RICHARD D. KNABB,RICHARD J. PASCH,JAMIE R. RHOME, AND STACY R. STEWART Tropical Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 2 November 2006, in final form 30 April 2007) ABSTRACT The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active of record. Twenty-eight storms occurred, includ- ing 27 tropical storms and one subtropical storm. Fifteen of the storms became hurricanes, and seven of these became major hurricanes. Additionally, there were two tropical depressions and one subtropical depression. Numerous records for single-season activity were set, including most storms, most hurricanes, and highest accumulated cyclone energy index. Five hurricanes and two tropical storms made landfall in the United States, including four major hurricanes. Eight other cyclones made landfall elsewhere in the basin, and five systems that did not make landfall nonetheless impacted land areas. The 2005 storms directly caused nearly 1700 deaths. This includes approximately 1500 in the United States from Hurricane Katrina— the deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1928. The storms also caused well over $100 billion in damages in the United States alone, making 2005 the costliest hurricane season of record. 1. Introduction intervals for all tropical and subtropical cyclones with intensities of 34 kt or greater; Bell et al. 2000), the 2005 By almost all standards of measure, the 2005 Atlantic season had a record value of about 256% of the long- hurricane season was the most active of record. -
Congressional Record United States Th of America PROCEEDINGS and DEBATES of the 109 CONGRESS, FIRST SESSION
E PL UR UM IB N U U S Congressional Record United States th of America PROCEEDINGS AND DEBATES OF THE 109 CONGRESS, FIRST SESSION Vol. 151 WASHINGTON, TUESDAY, DECEMBER 6, 2005 No. 155 Senate The Senate was not in session today. Its next meeting will be held on Monday, December 12, 2005, at 2 p.m. House of Representatives TUESDAY, DECEMBER 6, 2005 The House met at 2 p.m. and was last day’s proceedings and announces That the Senate passed S. 1044. called to order by the Speaker pro tem- to the House his approval thereof. That the Senate passed S. 1045. pore (Mr. BOOZMAN). Pursuant to clause 1, rule I, the Jour- With best wishes, I am nal stands approved. Sincerely, f KAREN L. HAAS, DESIGNATION OF THE SPEAKER f Clerk of the House. PRO TEMPORE PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE f The Speaker pro tempore laid before The SPEAKER pro tempore. Will the the House the following communica- gentleman from Colorado (Mr. UDALL) ANNOUNCEMENT BY THE SPEAKER tion from the Speaker: come forward and lead the House in the PRO TEMPORE WASHINGTON, DC, Pledge of Allegiance. December 6, 2005. Mr. UDALL of Colorado led the The SPEAKER pro tempore. Pursu- I hereby appoint the Honorable JOHN Pledge of Allegiance as follows: ant to clause 4 of rule I, the Speaker BOOZMAN to act as Speaker pro tempore on signed the following enrolled bill on I pledge allegiance to the Flag of the this day. United States of America, and to the Repub- Friday, November 18, 2005: J. -
Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms
FLORIDA HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS 1871-1995: An Historical Survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams '+wcCopy~~ I~BN 0-912747-08-0 Florida SeaGrant College is supported by award of the Office of Sea Grant, NationalOceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce,grant number NA 36RG-0070, under provisions of the NationalSea Grant College and Programs Act of 1966. This information is published by the Sea Grant Extension Program which functionsas a coinponentof the Florida Cooperative Extension Service, John T. Woeste, Dean, in conducting Cooperative Extensionwork in Agriculture, Home Economics, and Marine Sciences,State of Florida, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture, U.S. Departmentof Commerce, and Boards of County Commissioners, cooperating.Printed and distributed in furtherance af the Actsof Congressof May 8 andJune 14, 1914.The Florida Sea Grant Collegeis an Equal Opportunity-AffirmativeAction employer authorizedto provide research, educational information and other servicesonly to individuals and institutions that function without regardto race,color, sex, age,handicap or nationalorigin. Coverphoto: Hank Brandli & Rob Downey LOANCOPY ONLY Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 1871-1995: An Historical survey Fred Doehring, Iver W. Duedall, and John M. Williams Division of Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, FL 32901 Technical Paper - 71 June 1994 $5.00 Copies may be obtained from: Florida Sea Grant College Program University of Florida Building 803 P.O. Box 110409 Gainesville, FL 32611-0409 904-392-2801 II Our friend andcolleague, Fred Doehringpictured below, died on January 5, 1993, before this manuscript was completed. Until his death, Fred had spent the last 18 months painstakingly researchingdata for this book. -
Storm Watcher Pdf, Epub, Ebook
STORM WATCHER PDF, EPUB, EBOOK Maria V Snyder | 228 pages | 05 May 2013 | Leap Books, LLC | 9781616030339 | English | Powell, WY, United States National Hurricane Center Tropical Storm Wilfred forms over the eastern Atlantic. Tropical Depression 22 forms in the Gulf of Mexico. September 17, September 14, Hurricane Teddy forms over the central Atlantic. September 16, Hurricane Sally has formed over the Gulf of Mexico. September 12, Paulette is now a hurricane over the northwestern Atlantic. September 13, The NHC indicates that Nana has become a hurricane and is expected to make landfall along the coast of Belize tonight. September 02, Tropical Storm Omar forms off the east coast of the United States. September 01, Marco has become a hurricane and could make landfall near the Louisiana coast on Monday. August 23, Tropical Storm Laura becomes a hurricane , forecast to reach category 3 before making landfall on the south coast of the USA. August 25, Tropical Storm Kyle has formed off the east coast of the United States. August 14, August 13, Tropical Depression 10 forms over the eastern Atlantic. J uly 31, Hurricane Isaias moving closer towards southern Florida. August 01, Hanna strengthens and has become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season. July 25, J uly 22, Tropical Storm Fay has formed near the coast of North Carolina. July 09, July 05, Tropical Storm Dolly forms over the north Atlantic. June 23, June 2, Tropical Storm Bertha has formed near the coast of South Carolina this morning. May 27, May 16, Storm Names for the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Tropical Storm Arthur. -
1 a Hyperactive End to the Atlantic Hurricane Season: October–November 2020
1 A Hyperactive End to the Atlantic Hurricane Season: October–November 2020 2 3 Philip J. Klotzbach* 4 Department of Atmospheric Science 5 Colorado State University 6 Fort Collins CO 80523 7 8 Kimberly M. Wood# 9 Department of Geosciences 10 Mississippi State University 11 Mississippi State MS 39762 12 13 Michael M. Bell 14 Department of Atmospheric Science 15 Colorado State University 16 Fort Collins CO 80523 17 1 18 Eric S. Blake 19 National Hurricane Center 1 Early Online Release: This preliminary version has been accepted for publication in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, may be fully cited, and has been assigned DOI 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0312.1. The final typeset copyedited article will replace the EOR at the above DOI when it is published. © 2021 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/26/21 05:03 AM UTC 20 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 21 Miami FL 33165 22 23 Steven G. Bowen 24 Aon 25 Chicago IL 60601 26 27 Louis-Philippe Caron 28 Ouranos 29 Montreal Canada H3A 1B9 30 31 Barcelona Supercomputing Center 32 Barcelona Spain 08034 33 34 Jennifer M. Collins 35 School of Geosciences 36 University of South Florida 37 Tampa FL 33620 38 2 Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/26/21 05:03 AM UTC Accepted for publication in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. DOI 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0312.1. 39 Ethan J. Gibney 40 UCAR/Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science 41 San Diego, CA 92127 42 43 Carl J. Schreck III 44 North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System 45 Studies (CISESS) 46 North Carolina State University 47 Asheville NC 28801 48 49 Ryan E. -
Congressional Record United States Th of America PROCEEDINGS and DEBATES of the 109 CONGRESS, FIRST SESSION
E PL UR UM IB N U U S Congressional Record United States th of America PROCEEDINGS AND DEBATES OF THE 109 CONGRESS, FIRST SESSION Vol. 151 WASHINGTON, TUESDAY, DECEMBER 6, 2005 No. 155 Senate The Senate was not in session today. Its next meeting will be held on Monday, December 12, 2005, at 2 p.m. House of Representatives TUESDAY, DECEMBER 6, 2005 The House met at 2 p.m. and was last day’s proceedings and announces That the Senate passed S. 1044. called to order by the Speaker pro tem- to the House his approval thereof. That the Senate passed S. 1045. pore (Mr. BOOZMAN). Pursuant to clause 1, rule I, the Jour- With best wishes, I am nal stands approved. Sincerely, f KAREN L. HAAS, DESIGNATION OF THE SPEAKER f Clerk of the House. PRO TEMPORE PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE f The Speaker pro tempore laid before The SPEAKER pro tempore. Will the the House the following communica- gentleman from Colorado (Mr. UDALL) ANNOUNCEMENT BY THE SPEAKER tion from the Speaker: come forward and lead the House in the PRO TEMPORE WASHINGTON, DC, Pledge of Allegiance. December 6, 2005. Mr. UDALL of Colorado led the The SPEAKER pro tempore. Pursu- I hereby appoint the Honorable JOHN Pledge of Allegiance as follows: ant to clause 4 of rule I, the Speaker BOOZMAN to act as Speaker pro tempore on signed the following enrolled bill on I pledge allegiance to the Flag of the this day. United States of America, and to the Repub- Friday, November 18, 2005: J. -
MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO Diploma Thesis
MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO FACULTY OF EDUCATION Diploma thesis Brno 2018 Supervisor: Author: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Bc. Lukáš Opavský MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO FACULTY OF EDUCATION DEPARTMENT OF ENGLISH LANGUAGE AND LITERATURE Presentation Sentences in Wikipedia: FSP Analysis Diploma thesis Brno 2018 Supervisor: Author: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Bc. Lukáš Opavský Declaration I declare that I have worked on this thesis independently, using only the primary and secondary sources listed in the bibliography. I agree with the placing of this thesis in the library of the Faculty of Education at the Masaryk University and with the access for academic purposes. Brno, 30th March 2018 …………………………………………. Bc. Lukáš Opavský Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisor, doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. for his kind help and constant guidance throughout my work. Bc. Lukáš Opavský OPAVSKÝ, Lukáš. Presentation Sentences in Wikipedia: FSP Analysis; Diploma Thesis. Brno: Masaryk University, Faculty of Education, English Language and Literature Department, 2018. XX p. Supervisor: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Annotation The purpose of this thesis is an analysis of a corpus comprising of opening sentences of articles collected from the online encyclopaedia Wikipedia. Four different quality categories from Wikipedia were chosen, from the total amount of eight, to ensure gathering of a representative sample, for each category there are fifty sentences, the total amount of the sentences altogether is, therefore, two hundred. The sentences will be analysed according to the Firabsian theory of functional sentence perspective in order to discriminate differences both between the quality categories and also within the categories. -
Capital Adequacy (E) Task Force RBC Proposal Form
Capital Adequacy (E) Task Force RBC Proposal Form [ ] Capital Adequacy (E) Task Force [ x ] Health RBC (E) Working Group [ ] Life RBC (E) Working Group [ ] Catastrophe Risk (E) Subgroup [ ] Investment RBC (E) Working Group [ ] SMI RBC (E) Subgroup [ ] C3 Phase II/ AG43 (E/A) Subgroup [ ] P/C RBC (E) Working Group [ ] Stress Testing (E) Subgroup DATE: 08/31/2020 FOR NAIC USE ONLY CONTACT PERSON: Crystal Brown Agenda Item # 2020-07-H TELEPHONE: 816-783-8146 Year 2021 EMAIL ADDRESS: [email protected] DISPOSITION [ x ] ADOPTED WG 10/29/20 & TF 11/19/20 ON BEHALF OF: Health RBC (E) Working Group [ ] REJECTED NAME: Steve Drutz [ ] DEFERRED TO TITLE: Chief Financial Analyst/Chair [ ] REFERRED TO OTHER NAIC GROUP AFFILIATION: WA Office of Insurance Commissioner [ ] EXPOSED ________________ ADDRESS: 5000 Capitol Blvd SE [ ] OTHER (SPECIFY) Tumwater, WA 98501 IDENTIFICATION OF SOURCE AND FORM(S)/INSTRUCTIONS TO BE CHANGED [ x ] Health RBC Blanks [ x ] Health RBC Instructions [ ] Other ___________________ [ ] Life and Fraternal RBC Blanks [ ] Life and Fraternal RBC Instructions [ ] Property/Casualty RBC Blanks [ ] Property/Casualty RBC Instructions DESCRIPTION OF CHANGE(S) Split the Bonds and Misc. Fixed Income Assets into separate pages (Page XR007 and XR008). REASON OR JUSTIFICATION FOR CHANGE ** Currently the Bonds and Misc. Fixed Income Assets are included on page XR007 of the Health RBC formula. With the implementation of the 20 bond designations and the electronic only tables, the Bonds and Misc. Fixed Income Assets were split between two tabs in the excel file for use of the electronic only tables and ease of printing. However, for increased transparency and system requirements, it is suggested that these pages be split into separate page numbers beginning with year-2021. -
What Is Really Responsible for the Extreme Waves Regime in the Colombian Caribbean Coastal Region?
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 391–401, 2016 www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/16/391/2016/ doi:10.5194/nhess-16-391-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Storms or cold fronts: what is really responsible for the extreme waves regime in the Colombian Caribbean coastal region? L. J. Otero, J. C. Ortiz-Royero, J. K. Ruiz-Merchan, A. E. Higgins, and S. A. Henriquez Applied Physics Group – Ocean and Atmosphere Area – Physics Department, Universidad del Norte, Barranquilla, Colombia Correspondence to: L. J. Otero ([email protected]) Received: 9 April 2015 – Published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.: 4 May 2015 Revised: 28 December 2015 – Accepted: 4 January 2016 – Published: 8 February 2016 Abstract. The aim of this study is to determine the contri- that in the continental area due to their geographic location. bution and importance of cold fronts and storms to extreme The wave heights in the extreme regime are similar in mag- waves in different areas of the Colombian Caribbean in an nitude to those found in Alta Guajira, but the extreme waves attempt to determine the extent of the threat posed by the associated with the passage of cold fronts in this region have flood processes to which these coastal populations are ex- lower return periods than those associated with the hurricane posed. Furthermore, the study wishes to establish the actions season. to which coastal engineering constructions should be sub- ject. In the calculation of maritime constructions, the most important parameter is the height of the wave. For this rea- son, it is necessary to establish the design wave height to which a coastal engineering structure should be resistant. -
Executive Summary
EX E CUTIV E SUMMARY CLIVE WILKINSON AND DAVID SOUTER 2005 – a hot year zx 2005 was the hottest year on average since the advent of reliable records in 1880. zx That year exceeded the previous 9 record years, which have all been within the last 15 years. zx 2005 also exceeded 1998 which previously held the record as the hottest year; there were massive coral losses throughout the world in 1998. zx Large areas of particularly warm surface waters developed in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic during 2005. These were clearly visible in satellite images as HotSpots. zx The first HotSpot signs appeared in May, 2005 and rapidly expanded to cover the northern Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and the mid-Atlantic by August. zx The HotSpots continued to expand and intensify until October, after which winter conditions cooled the waters to near normal in November and December. zx The excessive warm water resulted in large-scale temperature stress to Caribbean corals. 2005 – a hurricane year zx The 2005 hurricane year broke all records with 26 named storms, including 13 hurricanes. zx In July, the unusually strong Hurricane Dennis struck Grenada, Cuba and Florida. zx Hurricane Emily was even stronger, setting a record as the strongest hurricane to strike the Caribbean before August. zx Hurricane Katrina in August was the most devastating storm to hit the USA. It caused massive damage around New Orleans. Status of Caribbean Coral Reefs after Bleaching and Hurricanes in 2005 zx Hurricane Rita, a Category 5 storm, passed through the Gulf of Mexico to strike Texas and Louisiana in September.