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ENN Ecological Holdings (600803 CH) ENN Ecol Ogical H Oldi Ngs China Materials 4 March 2020 ENN Ecological Holdings (600803 CH) ENN Ecol ogical H oldi ngs Target price: CNY13.50 Share price (4 Mar): CNY10.31 | Up/downside: +30.9% Initiation: soon to be China’s only A-share city-gas play Dennis Ip, CFA (852) 2848 4068 Short-term rerating potential from restructuring with ENN Energy [email protected] Long-term earnings growth from LNG and city-gas development Anna Lu, CFA (852) 2848 4465 Initiating with a Buy (1) and SOTP TP of CNY13.5; 16.6x 2020E PER [email protected] Investment case: We initiate on ENN Ecological (ENNEC) with a Buy (1) Share price performance rating and 12-month SOTP TP of CNY13.5. ENNEC is engaged currently in (CNY) (%) upstream energy businesses focusing on LNG, energy engineering, coal 13.5 110 mining and coal chemicals in China. However, the company is poised to 12.3 103 generate c.70% of its earnings from ENN Energy (2688 HK, HKD88.00, 11.0 95 9.8 88 Buy [1]) from 2020E after a proposed restructuring with ENN Energy due to 8.5 80 be completed in 3Q20E, thus creating a rerating opportunity for ENNEC. Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 We believe the stock offers a good risk-reward profile for investors seeking ENN Ecolog (LHS) Relative to SHASHR Index (RHS) A-share exposure to China’s growing natural gas sector. We also include a summary of the company’s ESG initiatives on page 29. 12-month range 8.70-13.07 Market cap (USDbn) 1.82 Soon to be the only national city-gas A-share company. The 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 13.32 restructuring will transfer Chairman Wang Yusuo’s 32.80% share of ENN Shares outstanding (m) 1,229 Major shareholder Wang Yusuo (48.4%) Energy to ENNEC, making ENNEC the only national city-gas company on the A-share market. After the restructuring, ENN Energy should contribute Financial summary (CNY) significantly to ENNEC’s profit growth, particularly as we forecast ENN Year to 31 Dec 19E 20E 21E Energy’s gas sales to rise at a 17% CAGR over 2018-21E. The Revenue (m) 12,601 12,022 12,822 restructuring will have no impact on the fundamentals of both companies, Operating profit (m) 1,473 3,088 1,570 Net profit (m) 1,195 2,296 3,160 but we see a rerating opportunity for ENNEC from a valuation perspective Core EPS (fully-diluted) 0.972 0.815 1.122 and view the restructuring as EPS- and DPS-accretive (see page 8). We EPS change (%) (9.1) (16.2) 37.6 believe the injection of the city-gas business will lead to ENNEC being Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) (11.7) (34.6) (18.7) rerated from a 12.6x 2020E PER towards the valuation of the A-share PER (x) 10.6 12.6 9.2 Dividend yield (%) 2.0 2.8 2.8 regional gas names (average 19x 2020E PER, per Bloomberg forecasts). DPS 0.207 0.284 0.286 PBR (x) 1.3 1.0 0.9 In-group synergies to be further realised. With commencement of its EV/EBITDA (x) 10.3 6.5 10.9 coal gasification plant and expansion of the Zhoushan LNG terminal, ENN ROE (%) 13.2 12.1 10.6 Energy is poised to see lower dollar margin risk with more price-competitive Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts and diversified gas supply offered by ENNEC, while ENNEC can ensure gas demand for its LNG products through collaboration with ENN Energy. After ENN Group’s potential injection of the Zhoushan LNG terminal into ENNEC, ENNEC will also be exposed to an extra income stream with stable cash flow from ENN Energy’s terminal usage, in our view. Catalysts: 1) Completion of its restructuring plan with ENN Energy, 2) production ramp-up of its coal gasification plant in Inner Mongolia, 3) construction of the Zhoushan LNG terminal (phase 3), and 4) ENN Group’s injection of the Zhoushan LNG terminal into ENNEC. Valuation: We use a SOTP valuation to value ENNEC, which gives us a 12-month TP of CNY13.5, representing a blended 2020E PER of 16.6x. Risks: 1) Postponement of the restructuring, 2) a larger-than-expected decline in coal prices, 3) a larger-than-expected decline in methanol prices, and 4) asset injection at an unattractive valuation. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 43 ENN Ecological Holdings (600803 CH): 4 March 2020 Table of contents Soon to be the only national city-gas company on the A-share market .............. 6 Group synergies to be further released.................................................................12 Financials .................................................................................................................23 Valuation ..................................................................................................................26 Risks to our call .......................................................................................................28 ESG activity ..............................................................................................................29 Appendices ..............................................................................................................30 Appendix 1: China natural gas demand ........................................................................... 30 Appendix 2: DE/IE Development in China ........................................................................ 31 Appendix 3: Coal-gasification industry in China ............................................................... 33 Appendix 4: Development of the Zhoushan LNG terminal ................................................ 37 Appendix 5: Development of LNG terminals in China....................................................... 39 2 ENN Ecological Holdings (600803 CH): 4 March 2020 How do we justify our view? Growth outlook Valuation Earnings revisions Growth outlook ENNEC: PBT (net one-off items) Given weak commodity prices (LNG, coal, methanol) in (CNYm) 2H19, the spin-off of ENNEC’s bio-medicine segment, and 4,000 the Wangjiata coal mine accident, we forecast ENNEC to 3,000 see a 26% YoY decline in PBT for 2019E. Yet, we forecast 98% and 20% YoY increases in its PBT for 2020E and 2,000 2021E, respectively, after the injection of ENN Energy as 1,000 well as production expansion of its underlying LNG, coal 0 and coal chemical segments. We also see substantial PBT upside upon commencement of construction of Zhoushan (1,000) 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E LNG terminal (phase 3) which we have yet to factor into ENN Energy Coal Chemical Energy Engineering Coal our forecasts. LNG Bio-medicine Others Source: Company, Daiwa Note: Others include income from Santos and other JVs/Associates Valuation ENNEC: 1-year forward PER ENNEC is trading currently at 12.6x 2020E PER, 0.7SD PER (x) below its past 5-year average 1-year forward PER. Our 40 SOTP-based TP of CNY13.50 equates to a 16.6x 2020E 35 30 PER, the same as its past 5-year average. As we forecast 27.5x Avg+2SD ENNEC’s EPS to rise by 38% YoY growth for 2021E 25 22.1x Avg+1SD thanks to earnings growth derived from: 1) ENN Energy, 20 and 2) production ramp-up of its LNG and coal segment, 15 16.6x Avg our TP implies a 12.0x 2021E PER. 10 11.2x Avg-1SD 5 5.7x Avg-2SD We believe our valuation target is undemanding given the 0 paradigm shift of ENNEC from a coal-chemical company Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-18 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-19 Jan-20 with limited earnings upside into a promising integrated gas Jan-15 Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts company after the restructuring. Note: Reported EPS is used for computation of PER from 2015-18, Adjusted EPS is used for computation of PER from 2019 onwards Earnings revisions ENNEC: consensus EPS forecasts The 2019-2021E Bloomberg-consensus EPS forecasts for (HKD) ENNEC for 2019-21E were revised down in end-October 1.70 2019 due to weak 3Q19 results. 1.60 1.50 Our EPS forecasts are 11.7% below consensus in 2019E 1.40 likely due to our pessimistic view on commodity prices 1.30 (LNG, coal and methanol) over 2019-21E. Our EPS 1.20 forecasts are also 34.6% and 18.7% lower for 2020E and 1.10 2021E due to this pessimistic view, as well as our: 1) more 1.00 conservative assumptions on production ramp-up of its Jul-19 Oct-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Jan-20 Mar-19 Feb-20 Nov-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 LNG plants over 2020-21E, 2) factoring in the impact of May-19 2019E EPS 2020E EPS 2021E EPS ENN Energy’s injection and share dilution in 2020E, and 3) Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts assumption of no construction of its Zhoushan terminal phase 3 in 2021E due to a potential construction delay. 3 ENN Ecological Holdings (600803 CH): 4 March 2020 Financial summary Key assumptions Year to 31 Dec 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Asso. Income from ENN Energy - 0 0 0 0 0 1,965 2,321 Coal-chemical Segmental Profit - 465 377 471 647 466 507 549 Energy Engineering Segmental Profit - 691 546 588 750 751 770 746 Coal Segmental Profit - 330 513 1,032 993 875 933 1,003 LNG Segmental Profit - 20 17 92 92 45 57 258 Profit and loss (CNYm) Year to 31 Dec 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Coal-chemical Segment - 1,553 1,842 3,193 4,945 4,751 4,769 4,744 Energy Engineering Segment - 1,862 1,951 2,697 3,177 3,183 3,261 3,161 Other Revenue - 2,244 2,603 4,146 5,510 4,667 3,992 4,917 Total Revenue - 5,659 6,396 10,036 13,632 12,601 12,022 12,822 Other income - 31 229 (120) (329) 117 1,767 25 COGS - (3,877) (4,688) (7,537) (10,697) (10,226) (9,729) (10,240) SG&A - (604) (667) (784) (957) (884) (844) (900) Other op.expenses - 0 (0) (55) (146) (135) (128) (137) Operating profit - 1,209 1,269 1,540 1,504 1,473 3,088 1,570 Net-interest inc./(exp.) - (202) (360) (424) (467) (558) (594) (613) Assoc/forex/extraord./others - 50 (189) (194) 584 630 2,124 2,480 Pre-tax profit - 1,058 720 923 1,621 1,544 4,618 3,437 Tax - (173) (150) (230) (215) (190) (518) (199) Min.
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