Fiscal Policy in an Era of Austerity
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Columbia Law School Scholarship Archive Faculty Scholarship Faculty Publications 2012 Fiscal Policy in an Era of Austerity David M. Schizer Columbia Law School, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/faculty_scholarship Part of the Law and Economics Commons, Taxation-Federal Commons, and the Tax Law Commons Recommended Citation David M. Schizer, Fiscal Policy in an Era of Austerity, 35 HARV. J. L. & PUB. POL'Y 453 (2012). Available at: https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/faculty_scholarship/1113 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Faculty Publications at Scholarship Archive. It has been accepted for inclusion in Faculty Scholarship by an authorized administrator of Scholarship Archive. For more information, please contact [email protected]. FISCAL POLICY IN AN ERA OF AUSTERITY DAVID M. SCHIZER* I. THE NEED FOR A POLICY AGENDA TO PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH ........................... 455 A. Deleveraging Hangover for Consumers ....457 B. Ballooning Government Deficits ................. 458 C. Intense International Competition .............. 460 D. Promoting Economic Growth ...................... 460 II. UNCERTAINTIES AND CHALLENGES WITH A KEYNESIAN STIMULUS ....................................... 461 A. Dueling Models and Multipliers ................. 462 B. The Challenge of Identifying "Shovel Ready" Projects ............................... 464 C. The Problem of Politically-Motivated P rojects ............................................................ 465 D . The Costs of Deficits ..................................... 467 III. TACKLING PROBLEMS OF SUBSTANTIVE LAW: THE EXAMPLE OF CUTTING CORPORATE TAX RATES ........................................ 469 A. Addressing a Broad Range of Problem s ........................................ 469 B. The Case Study of Corporate Tax Reform .................................. 470 IV. TACKLING PROBLEMS OF PROCESS: PROMOTING BETTER FISCAL D ECISIONM AKING ................................................. 476 Dean and the Lucy G. Moses Professor of Law, Columbia Law School. I appreci- ate helpful comments from Mihir Desai, Michael Graetz, Glenn Hubbard, Yair Listoken, Sharyn O'Halloran, Alex Raskolnikov, Richard Richman, and Daniel Shaviro. I am grateful to Erin Dickerson and Lynn Belier for their research assis- tance. HarvardJournal of Law & Public Policy [Vol. 35 A. Problems of Information and Political Incentives ........................................ 477 B. Institutional Strategies to Promote Better Fiscal Decisions .................................. 478 1. Disclosure and Outside Fiscal W atchdogs .................................... 479 2. Institutional Reform ............................... 480 3. Hard Budget Constraints ....................... 482 CO N CLUSIO N ................................................................ 486 We face a time of stagnant economic growth, severe unem- ployment, massive budget deficits, and an increasingly competi- tive global economy. These daunting challenges are the legacy of a number of unwise policy decisions in both the public and pri- vate sectors. Although the good news is that unsound policies can be changed, the bad news is that no single step will do the trick. It is a challenge to rely on monetary policy when interest rates are near zero. There also is uncertainty-and a heated de- bate among economists- about the effectiveness of a Keynesian stimulus. One thing we know is that a stimulus is quite difficult to execute effectively. For example, it is a challenge to identify "shovel ready" projects that contribute to long-term economic growth, particularly on short notice. There is no uncertainty, though, about the need to address a broad range of specific problems contributing to our eco- nomic woes. We have to promote economic growth and fiscal stability over the long term. To do so, we should reform our housing and mortgage markets, our entitlement programs, our tax code, and much more. A short Article for a special is- sue cannot delineate all the challenges Congress is facing or provide definitive guidance about how to address them. As an illustrative example, this Article emphasizes the perils of maintaining the highest corporate tax rate in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in a competitive global economy. Cutting our corporate tax rate would encourage businesses to invest and hire more employ- ees, while also reducing incentives to engage in wasteful tax planning and to shift taxable income and jobs overseas. No. 2] Fiscal Policy in an Era of Austerity In addition to the problems with our substantive law, we al- so face problems of process that undercut our government's effectiveness. An important (and familiar) one is that politi- cians are consistently tempted to accommodate organized in- terest groups, especially if the costs of these favors can be qui- etly passed on to the general public. This is all the more true if special interest deals can be financed with deficit spending, so that the bill will not come due until long after our current po- litical leaders have retired. Various measures can constrain this familiar political dynamic, and this Article sketches three strat- egies as illustrative examples. First, we should make the costs of special interest deals more visible through better budgetary accounting. Second, we should enlist specific institutions within our government to target waste and pork. For example, we should empower special House and Senate committees to cut particular budget items or, alternatively, to sever them from the rest of the budget and subject them to a separate pub- lic vote. Third, we should create stronger institutional barriers to deficit spending. Scarcity focuses the mind, so that our lead- ers will have greater incentive to reject initiatives that are not cost-justified. Part I of this Article lays out the relevant economic chal- lenges and calls for a broad agenda to promote economic growth. Part II outlines difficulties and uncertainties with a Keynesian stimulus. Part III surveys a few substantive chal- lenges that require our attention and, as an example, shows the importance of cutting corporate tax rates. Part IV discusses the need to reform our budgetary process. I. THE NEED FOR A POLICY AGENDA TO PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH The U.S. economy has taken a beating since 2008. Median household income has fallen to 1996 levels, and 22% of Ameri- can children are living in poverty, the highest level since 1993.1 1. Conor Dougherty, Income Slides to 1996 Levels, WALL ST. J., Sept. 14, 2011, at Al (quoting a Census Bureau report for 2010). HarvardJournal of Law & Public Policy [Vol. 35 As of January 2012, the jobless rate remained above 8%,2 and almost half of the nearly thirteen million Americans classified as unemployed have been out of work for more than six months. 3 The jobless rate is even higher among young people and minorities (for example, 38.5% among African-American teenagers). 4 If we also count people who have given up looking for work (2.8 million),5 and people working only part-time be- cause they cannot find full-time jobs (8.2 million),6 the overall unemployment rate in the United States is 15.1%. 7 The eco- nomic recovery has been sluggish; we need to create 125,000 jobs per month just to accommodate population growth,8 but in the summer and fall of 2011 we often fell short of even that threshold. 9 The human costs are staggering. Meanwhile, growth has slowed so that our gross domestic product (GDP) grew by only about 1.5% in 2011.10 After nine quarters of recov- ery, aggregate output is still not back to its level before the fi- nancial crisis.11 2. Press Release, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Dep't of Labor, Economic News Release: The Employment Situation -January 2012 tbl.A-15 (Jan. 6, 2012), http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm. 3. Id. at tbl.A-12 (42.5%, or 5.6 million, out of work for at least twenty-seven weeks). 4. Id. at tbl.A-2. 5. Id. at 2. 6. Id. 7. Id. at tbl.A-15. 8. John Mauldin, It's All About the Jobs... and Gold, THOUGHTS FROM THE FRONTLINE, Sept. 3, 2011, http://www.johnmauldin.com/frontlinethoughts/its-all- about-the-jobs-and-gold/. 9. Press Release, Bureau of Labor Statistics, supra note 2, at tbl.B (reporting fewer than 125,000 jobs created in May (54,000), June (84,000), July (96,000), Au- gust (85,000), and October (112,000)). 10. See Confronting the Nation's Fiscal Policy Challenges: Hearing Before the Joint Se- lect Comm. on Deficit Reduction, 112th Cong. 7-8 (2011), (statement of Douglas W. Elmendorf, Dir., Cong. Budget Office) [hereinafter Elmendorf, Fiscal Policy Chal- lenges] (noting that latest Blue Chip economic indicators forecast, representing average of 50 business economists analyses, is 1.3 %); see also Testimony on the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022: Hearing Before the S. Comm. on the Budget, 112th Cong. 5, tbl.2 (2012), (statement of Douglas W. Elmendorf, Dir., Cong. Budget Office) [hereinafter Elmendorf, Economic Outlook] (estimating real growth in 2011 at 1.6%). 11. Ben S. Bemanke, Chairman, Fed. Reserve, Address at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, WY: The Near- and Longer-Term Prospects for the U.S. Economy (Aug. 26, 2011), http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20110826a.htm; see also Elmendorf, Fiscal Policy Challenges, supra note 10, at 13-14 (estimating output No. 2] Fiscal Policy in an Era of Austerity