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Urbanization and Its Effects on Lizards: a Study from a Climate Change Perspective

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Urbanization and Its Effects on Lizards: a Study from a Climate Change Perspective URBANIZATION AND ITS EFFECTS ON LIZARDS: A Study from A Climate Change Perspective Prepared by: Dr. Maria Thaker & Madhura Amdekar Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science Bangalore, India FINAL REPORT Submitted to: Environmental Management & Policy Research Institute (EMPRI), Bangalore August 2016 FOREWORD AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This project was supported by funds from the Environmental Management & Policy Research Institute (EMPRI), Bangalore, and was conducted in and around the city of Bangalore, Karnataka, India from 12 December 2015 to 30 August 2016. Part of the reported data and some results of this study may be included in the PhD thesis of Miss Madhura Amdekar, Centre for Ecological Sciences, IISc. EMPRI will be duly acknowledged in the thesis and in any publications that arise from this project. Upon request by the Director General of EMPRI, Ms. Ritu Kakkar, Appendix A, B and C were included in this report. Appendix A provides the raw data files, Appendix B is the manual and syntax for the software MAXENT, which was utilized to conduct the niche distribution models, and Appendix C is the tutorial for running linear models in R used to determine microhabitat preferences. This project would not have been possible without the help of Mr. Shashank Balaksrishna, (St Joseph's College, Bangalore), who primarily conducted the thermal biology experiments, and Mr. Abhijit Kumar Nageshkumar for help in taking and analyzing aerial images of the study grids. We would also like to thank Mr. Mihir Joshi, Ms. Anuradha Batabyal and Mr. Arka Pal for help in the collection of field data. Dr. Maria Thaker Centre for Ecological Sciences, IISc 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES 5 LIST OF FIGURES 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 8 INTRODUCTION AND REVIEW OF KEY LITERATURE 10 Global Climate Change 10 Lizards and environmental temperature 13 Approach to this project 16 Bangalore and the Agamid lizards that live there 16 Peninsula Rock Agama, Psammophilus dorsalis 18 Common Garden Lizard, Calotes versicolor 21 Objectives 24 METHODOLOGY 26 Objective 1: Quantify distribution, abundance, and microhabitat preferences 26 Objective 2: Geographical variation in thermal limit and optimal body temperature 32 Objective 3: Changes in distribution patterns under climate change scenarios 35 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 38 Objective 1: Quantify distribution, abundance, and microhabitat preferences 38 Objective 2: Geographical variation in thermal limit and optimal body temperature 50 Objective 3: Changes in distribution patterns under climate change scenarios 53 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 59 REFERENCES 62 APPENDIX A 79 Presence, Abundance and Microhabitat Data for 79 3 Calotes versicolor and Psammophilus dorsalis 79 APPENDIX B 92 A Brief Tutorial on Maxent 92 APPENDIX C 144 Tutorial on running linear models in R 144 4 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Description of plot types……………………………………………………………26 Table 2: Parameters measured in each plot…………………………………………………..30 Table 3: Location coordinates of sampling grids…………………………………………….38 Table 4: Example of the proportion of different substrate types in a plot calculated from image processing……………………………………………………………………………..43 Table 5: Survey of city parks…………………………………………………………….......45 5 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Male (a, b), Female (c) and juvenile (d) of the peninsular rock agama Psammophilus dorsalis……………………………………………………………………………….19 Figure 2: Global distribution of P. dorsalis (Image Courtesy: IUCN)………………………20 Figure 3: Males of the Common garden lizard Calotes versicolor……………………….…..…22 Figure 4: Global distribution of C. versicolor (Image courtesy: Reptile Database)…………23 Figure 5: Area sampled for presence of P. dorsalis and C. versicolor …………………...…27 Figure 6: Rural landscape commonly seen around the city of Bangalore …………………...28 Figure 7: Representative images of urban areas sampled……………………………………29 Figure 8: Aerial images of the 20 x 20 sampling plots taken with a drone built by Sree Sai Aerotech (Chennai, India)…………………………………………………………………....31 Figure 9: Thermal gradient setup in Dr. Maria Thaker’s lab to measure optimal body temperature of P. dorsalis……………………………………………………………………….…....34 Figure 10: Schematic work flow of the MaxEnt process …………………………………....36 Figure 11: Representative raw images taken using drone at different sampling locations…..41 Figure12: Raw (left) and processed (right) images for plot types A, B, and C………………42 Figure 13: Sites surveyed so far and sites where P. dorsalis was found present …....………44 Figure 14: Sites surveyed so far (blue dots) and sites where C. versicolor was found present (green dots)………………………………………………………………………………..….44 6 Figure 15: Aerial view of Cubbon Park, Bangalore……………………………………….…45 Figure 16: Abundance of P. dorsalis increases with distance from city centre (R2=0.04, p=0.03)................................................................................................................................................46 Figure 17: Sex ratio (female / male) of P. dorsalis in unaffected by distance from city centre (R2=0.01, p=0.5)……………………………………………………………………………...47 Figure 18: Abundance of P. dorsalis as a function of the proportion of area (400 sq. m) occupied by boulders. R2=0.14, p<0.001………………………………………………..…...48 Figure 19: Abundance of C.versicolor as a function of (a) average height of vegetation and of (b) soil compaction in a 400 sq. m area……………………………………………....49 Figure 20: (a) Critical maximum and (b) critical minimum temperatures of urban and rural males of P. dorsalis …………………...………………………………………………….……51 Figure 21: Body temperature of rural (R) and urban (U) lizards in a thermal gradient…..….52 Figure 22: (a) Current and (b) Future (2070) projected geographical distribution of P. dorsalis…………………………………………………………………………..…….54 Figure 23: (a) Current and (b) Future (2070) projected geographical distribution of C. versicolor………………………………………………………………………………………...55 Figure 24: Projection for maximum temperature of warmest month in 2070 ….…………....56 Figure 25: Annual average temperature in Bangalore …….....................................................58 Figure 26: Monthly temperature in Bangalore as a function of distance from city centre ..…58 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As ectotherms, lizards are dependent on suitable environmental temperatures for critical physiological processes. Altered and unpredictable patterns of temperature as well as precipitation, caused by climate change, can adversely affect their distribution and survival. The effects of climate change are compounded by urbanization, which leads to higher temperatures in the city as compared to less developed surrounding areas (i.e. urban heat island effect). In the present study, we extensively surveyed the city of Bangalore and its neighboring areas for the presence, distribution and microhabitat preferences of two agamid lizards, Psammophilus dorsalis and Calotes versicolor in order to understand the impact of urbanization on these lizards. Using a combination of data on current distribution (measured in the field) and of physiological thermal limits (measured in the laboratory), we determined environmental niche requirements and projected future distribution patterns under prevalent climate models. Microhabitat preferences indicate that the presence of boulders, low vegetation height and suitable soil compaction were important determinants of high density of lizards. Urban parks that are highly vegetated and lack large boulders and bare soil were not suitable habitats for these species. The temperature tolerance limits of lizards from within the city and outside differed but were still within the predicted environmental temperature range under climate change scenario. Hence at this point, rapid habitat destruction from urbanization is a more pressing concern for the survival of the two lizard species, compared to global warming. A concerted effort to provide suitable microhabitats that are well connected will significantly improve the survival probability of these important mesocarnivore reptile species in and around the city of Bangalore, India. 8 Indian Rock Agama, Psammophilus dorsalis (courtesy: flickr) 9 INTRODUCTION AND REVIEW OF KEY LITERATURE Global Climate Change According to the IPCC (2007), earth has warmed by 0.6°C during the last century and continues to warm till date. Diel variation in temperature has declined considerably: not only are daytime temperature increases, so are nighttime temperatures. Seasonal variation has also declined because winter, and not just summer, temperatures are higher. Heat waves have become more frequent in the last decade. The mechanistic link between accelerating emissions of greenhouse gases and recent patterns of environmental warming (IPCC 2007) is now well established. If emissions continue to accelerate at the current pace, the mean surface temperature of our planet might increase by as much as 6°C by 2100 (IPCC 2007). Such predictions into future decades includes obvious levels of uncertainty. But given the shockingly accurate prediction of the IPCC in 1990, where the predicted rate was 0.15–0.3°C per decade and actual observed rate was 0.2°C per decade, we should pay close attention to our current predictions for the near future. Our current understanding and expectation for patterns of climate change at the global scale is fairly well established. Regional and local changes in temperature, however, are more complex and compounded by specific anthropogenic activities. Removal of vegetation and the building of concrete structures for urbanization increased
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