SPEED BUMP OR ACCELERANT for the EV MARKET? Lea Malloy, Head of Research and Development, Cox Automotive Mobility Introduction TAILWINDS, HEADWINDS and WHIRLWINDS
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SEPTEMBER 2020 COVID-19 RECOVERY: SPEED BUMP OR ACCELERANT FOR THE EV MARKET? Lea Malloy, Head of Research and Development, Cox Automotive Mobility Introduction TAILWINDS, HEADWINDS AND WHIRLWINDS Still raging its way around the world, COVID-19 Fact of the matter is the push to electric is delivered an unprecedented sucker punch inescapable as carmakers scramble to meet to the automotive industry. And while there’s strict emissions targets in Europe, China and universal agreement the industry will recover, it nationally, including California and an ever- will look very different when it emerges. Part of growing list of states that have adopted or are that conversation will be how we do business poised to adopt California’s zero-emissions (virtually); the other part will be whether our mandate. Moreover, many manufacturers appetite for Electric Vehicles (EV) will be kicked have spent billions of dollars in research on EV farther down the road or revved up thanks to the technology, which has been underway for years, smog-free blue skies we’re seeing for the first with many billions more committed in the years time in decades. to come. Some OEMs have literally bet their whole future on these vast investments, making In fact, a study published by the Nature Climate it unrealistic to reel in. Change found significant drops in daily global carbon dioxide emissions, with a peak year- Despite the pandemic, 2020 will see Volkswagen over-year decline of 17% in early April. debut the I.D. Crozz. Volvo will launch the XC40 Recharge; and Audi will add the e-tron Sportback Early signs suggest that while the EV market will to its line, although not all have been confirmed for take a hit in 2020, it will be more stall out than the U.S. Ford’s highly anticipated Mach-E SUV is vanishing act. In fact, recent signs suggest that still slated to launch in the U.S. in late 2020, but any stall out may have more to do with long European deliveries won’t happen until early 2021. production lead times and less about dimming ambition by OEMs. How long the stall out will last is a point of much conversation. 17% year-over-year decline in daily global carbon dioxide emissions in early April 2020 Source: Nature Climate Change, April 2020 1 EV plans delayed in 2020 to 8.5 million in 2025, 26 million in Other automakers have delayed EV 2030 and 54 million in 2040, representing 58% introductions. The Mercedes-Benz EQC is of anticipated new car sales. Three accelerants delayed for North America to focus on its will fuel this growth: European launch in Q1 2021. Rivian has delayed its EV truck and SUV models into 2021. 1. Costs: Battery costs continue to fall, Lordstown Motors pushed back the unveiling enabling EVs to achieve cost parity with of its Endurance EV pickup. GM has delayed equivalent gas cars soon, not to mention the refresh of the Chevrolet Bolt EV to the 2022 well-known lower total cost of operation model year from 2021, but insists other EVs versus ownership. remain on track like the GMC Hummer EV, Cadillac Lyriq and Cruise Origin shuttle. 2. Fleets: Companies and cities are converting fleets, which leads to bulk Struggling purchases that drive up sales numbers Troubles continue for EV maker Faraday Future and further drive down prices. Further, with its founder filing for personal bankruptcy fleets often enjoy the strongest ROIs to resolve billions of dollars of personal from BEV platforms. debt. Chinese EV company Byton has been 3. Consumers: Batteries keep getting temporarily suspended since July, but is better, leading to greater efficiency, reportedly ready to resume full operations extended range and faster charge times, in September 2020. Shares of Chinese EV helping improve consumer sentiment. maker Kandi Technologies plummeted after its highly anticipated product unveiling in August resulted in just a few hundred pre-orders. Although the majority of Americans agree EV OEM valuations are skyrocketing that if we all drove electric vehicles, we could For the market, Summer 2020 has been reduce oil consumption and pollution, only head-turning for the EV industry. In July, Tesla a third would consider buying one anytime surpassed Toyota to become the world's most soon. And it’s largely due to the fact that the valuable automaker. As of August 17, Tesla's industry is still in early innings when it comes market value of $342 billion also surpassed to educating and delivering support about the Procter & Gamble and Walmart may be next. real and perceived consumer pain points of Nikola went public in June after a reverse cost, battery life and charging infrastructure. merger, while Lordstown, Canoo, Fisker and Hyliion are working with a special purpose This white paper describes how education, acquisition company (SPACs) to raise capital. investment and policy can unlock the advantages of electric vehicles that will Long-term, EVs are on target lead to greater adoption, and why there’s By 2025, there will be more than 600 different good reason to remain bullish on the future BEV and HEV models available globally. of the EV market. Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasts global BEV sales will grow from 1.7 million 2 REAL AND PERCEIVED COSTS ARE MAJOR ROADBLOCKS According to the 2019 Cox Automotive Electricity isn't free by any means, but it's Evolution of Mobility Study: The Path to much cheaper than gasoline, even with some Electric Vehicle Adoption, there are very clear of the recent COVID-19-related pressures to perceived barriers to more widespread the oil and gas industries. The cost to drive acceptance and adoption of EVs by both an electric car 100 miles can be as low as consumers and dealers: cost, battery life and $4, while 100 miles with gas will cost an charging infrastructure. estimated $10.87, at about 30 mpg; 10,000 all-electric miles every year saves about $700 The study found that while perceptions of annually (and eliminates tailpipe emissions).1 initial costs for EVs are more than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, the reality Battery life is greatly misunderstood is the price gap between EVs and gas- Understandably, consumers have serious powered vehicles is closer than most realize reservations over battery life and the costs and continues to tighten. In tracking average associated with battery replacement. transaction price from 2018-2020, EV pricing According to Consumer Reports, properly is up 3.1% versus 3.7% for ICE vehicles. cared for under the right conditions, an electric car’s battery pack should last Maintenance and fuel get high marks considerably longer than 100,000 miles On the other hand, the study cites the — well above the 65,000-mile lifespan widespread belief that it costs less to charge respondents in the Cox Automotive and maintain an EV than a gas vehicle. In study believe. many ways, an EV is mechanically simpler than a conventionally powered vehicle. There Furthermore, many electric car manufacturers are far fewer moving parts in an electric motor offer very robust 8-year/100,000-mile than a gasoline engine, and EVs avoid many warranties on the high-voltage battery common automotive components that will systems in their cars. Often longer than the eventually fail and need replacing. warranties offered on the other components of the vehicle, it shows that electric vehicle All of that seems to be born out by the manufacturers have a high degree of impressive, yet little-known numbers around confidence in EV battery life expectancy. cost-to-operate recently published by Kelley Kia, for example, covers the battery packs Blue Book: Average 5-year total cost-to- in its electric cars for 10 years/100,000 miles, operate a personal EV is a whopping 58% while Hyundai goes a step further by bumping less than a comparable gas vehicle, with it up to lifetime coverage.2 60% in fuel savings and 25% in service cost savings versus gas counterparts. Regardless, replacing an electric vehicle’s battery is an expensive proposition. Even With the introduction of the EV, the paradigm though the battery on the Nissan Leaf is is changing from a mileage-centered service projected to last 10 years, replacing it with a profile to battery health. new one could set you back anywhere from 3 $4,000 to nearly $10,000, depending on the drop to around $100 kwh by 2024, from $156 capacity. A new battery pack for a Chevrolet kwh per BNEF as of 2019. These price drops Bolt EV is reportedly priced well over $15,000, are due to ever-larger factories that benefit and that’s not including labor. If battery work from economies of scale, manufacturing is needed, however, modules can often be efficiencies and innovations, fierce competition replaced for significantly less than the cost in the battery industry and new battery of the entire pack. In fact, a manufactured chemistry technologies. battery comes in at about half the cost of a replacement. The price of lithium-ion batteries — which power the bulk of electric vehicles — 87% decline in cost of lithium-ion batteries between 2010 and 2019 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 12-3-19 4 Inconsistent incentives hampered by registered owner didn't apply for the credit for some poor awareness reason, it cannot be passed along to a subsequent Except for models from General Motors and buyer. In that case, it might turn out that a new Tesla, all mainstream, mass-produced full-electric model with the tax credit is a better deal than a vehicles on sale in America qualify for a $7,500 used one if the federal tax credit program means federal credit.