Allerdale Borough Council Housing Study 2016 Allerdale Borough Council Final Report

Allerdale Borough Council Housing Study 2016 Allerdale Borough Council Final Report May 2016 Main Contact: Dr Michael Bullock Email: [email protected] Telephone: 0800 612 9133 Website: www.arc4.co.uk © 2016 arc4 Limited (Company No. 06205180) Allerdale 2016 Housing Study Page | 2 Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................... 8 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................... 12 Background and objectives ............................................................................ 12 National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) requirements ........................... 12 Definitions ....................................................................................................... 13 Geography ...................................................................................................... 14 Research methodology ................................................................................... 17 Presentation of data ....................................................................................... 17 Report structure .............................................................................................. 17 2. Policy and strategic review ............................................................................. 19 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 19 Local strategic priorities .................................................................................. 19 Concluding comments .................................................................................... 21 3. Defining the Housing Market Area .................................................................. 22 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 22 House prices and rates of change in house prices ......................................... 23 Relative affordability ....................................................................................... 27 Household migration and search patterns ...................................................... 33 Travel to work trends ...................................................................................... 37 Concluding comments .................................................................................... 38 4. Understanding the current housing market position in Allerdale ..................... 39 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 39 Estimates of current dwellings in terms of size, type, condition, tenure .......... 39 Relative affordability of housing options ......................................................... 58 Estate and letting agent review....................................................................... 62 Concluding comments .................................................................................... 67 5. Understanding the future housing market in Allerdale .................................... 68 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 68 Key market drivers .......................................................................................... 68 Suggested future development profile of market dwellings ............................ 75 Concluding comments .................................................................................... 77 6. Housing need ................................................................................................. 79 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 79 Current households in need............................................................................ 79 Affordable housing requirements .................................................................... 82 Estimates of household groups who have particular housing requirements ... 86 Summary ........................................................................................................ 99 7. Conclusion: policy and strategic issues ........................................................ 100 May 2016 Allerdale 2016 Housing Study Page | 3 The Housing Market Area ............................................................................. 100 The current housing market .......................................................................... 100 Housing markets and mobility....................................................................... 101 Future housing market .................................................................................. 101 Housing need and demand .......................................................................... 101 NPPF requirements ...................................................................................... 104 Final comments ............................................................................................ 104 Introduction to Technical Appendices...................................................................... 105 Technical Appendix A: Research Methodology ....................................................... 106 Technical Appendix B: Policy Review ..................................................................... 111 Technical Appendix C: Housing need calculations .................................................. 123 Technical Appendix D: Monitoring and updating ..................................................... 142 List of Tables Table ES1 Gross annual affordable housing imbalance by SHMA, property size and designation 2016/17 to 2020/21 (excluding affordable supply) ................................................................................................. 10 Table ES2 Net annual affordable housing imbalance by SHMA, property size and designation 2016/17 to 2020/21 (including affordable supply) ...... 10 Table ES3 Open market dwelling stock and preferences ...................................... 11 Table 3.1 House prices in Allerdale by ward during 2014 and 2015 .................... 25 Table 3.2 Relative affordability of lower quartile (LQ) prices by District (residence based) ................................................................................ 27 Table 3.3 Relative affordability of median prices by District (residence base) ..... 27 Table 3.4 Origin of moving households ............................................................... 33 Table 3.5 Residential mobility – movement between different tenures ................ 35 Table 3.6 Residential mobility – profile of properties moved into by type and size ...................................................................................................... 35 Table 3.7 First choice destination of households planning to move in next five years .................................................................................................... 36 Table 3.7 First choice destination of households planning to move in next five years .................................................................................................... 37 Table 4.1 Dwelling stock and occupancy by SHMA ............................................. 39 Table 4.2 Property type and size of occupied dwellings in Allerdale ................... 40 Table 4.3 Dissatisfaction with state of repair by housing market area, property tenure and type .................................................................................... 44 Table 4.4 Repair problems by property tenure .................................................... 45 Table 4.5 Repair problems by housing market area ............................................ 45 May 2016 Allerdale 2016 Housing Study Page | 4 Table 4.6 Lower Quartile and median house price and income required to be affordable ............................................................................................. 49 Table 4.7 Profile of private rented sector in Allerdale .......................................... 52 Table 4.8 High income household dwelling aspirations and expectations ........... 58 Table 4.9 Cost of alternative tenure options for Allerdale .................................... 59 Table 4.10 Assumptions in assessing income required for alternative tenure options ................................................................................................. 60 Table 5.1 Primary market drivers ......................................................................... 68 Table 5.2 Projected population change, 2015 to 2037......................................... 69 Table 5.3 Ranking of priorities by stakeholders ................................................... 70 Table 5.4 Dwelling completions 2002/03 to 2014/15 ........................................... 73 Table 5.5 Open market dwelling stock and preferences ...................................... 76 Table 5.6 Open market dwelling stock and preferences ...................................... 76 Table 5.7a Comparison between current dwelling stock and market aspirations .. 78 Table 5.7b Comparison between current dwelling stock and market expectations ......................................................................................... 78 Table 6.1 Housing need in Allerdale .................................................................... 80 Table 6.2 Households in need by SHMA ............................................................

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