5. Assessing the Benefits of a Lower Carbon Development Pathway for Zanzibar

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5. Assessing the Benefits of a Lower Carbon Development Pathway for Zanzibar The Economics of Climate Change in Zanzibar 5. Assessing the Benefits of a Lower Carbon Development Pathway for Zanzibar Technical Report (Final Version) July 2012 for i Summary This report is part of the study The Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Zanzibar and describes the analysis relating to lower carbon development. ZANZIBAR’S VISION IS TO ERADICATE POVERTY, IMPROVE SOCIAL WELL BEING AND CREATE A STRONG AND MORE DIVERSIFIED ECONOMY Zanzibar aims to have eradicated poverty and developed a stronger, diversified economy by 2020, as outlined in its Vision 2020 (RGZ 2000). The MKUZA II Strategy (RGZ 2010b), which runs from 2010 to 2015, is key to realising such ambitions. The role of MKUZA II is to implement a range of policies and programmes that addresses challenges such as how to sustain economic growth, promote sustainable tourism, further increase agriculture sector productivity, improve social services and address unemployment. Impacts of climate change could undermine these development goals, and therefore action is needed to mitigate potential impacts through adaptation measures. Action to reduce the risks of climate change clearly needs to be considered within a future climate change strategy. However, within such a strategy, there is also an opportunity to promote a more sustainable, green growth pathway, through a focus on lower carbon development policies and programmes. This opportunity is real. A number of different countries in the region, such as Ethiopia, Rwanda and Kenya1 are all assessing how a move to lower carbon development (or green growth) pathway benefits the country in terms of long term sustainable growth, and positions them to access climate funding over the next 5-10 years. The same is true of a number of Small Island Developing States (SIDS), such as Mauritius, Seychelles and Maldives. Previous work in the East Africa region (Watkiss et al. 2009, 2011) highlights that pursuing a lower carbon development pathway is often in a country’s national interest due to the strong synergies with measures needed to promote sustainable long term development and help deliver robust economic growth. It is important, however, to recognise that Zanzibar has a unique set of characteristics not shared by other countries in the region. While it shares many of the challenges, it has its own distinctive situation as an island country, associated with energy supply, limited land availability, resilience to economic shocks, focus on tourism etc. In addition, it is part of the United Republic of Tanzania (URT) whilst having its own autonomous government. Such characteristics mean that options relevant in other countries or regions may not be relevant in Zanzibar. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES TO ACHIEVING DEVELOPMENT GOALS. A MORE SUSTAINABLE, LOWER CARBON DEVELOPMENT PATHWAY IS NEEDED Zanzibar has a number of challenges, listed in the table below, that need to be addressed if it is to meet its development goals. Such challenges are made more difficult by high population growth, natural resource depletion, future climate impacts and the unique characteristics of Zanzibar as an island country. A business-as-usual pathway could undermine development goals, as described in the table below. However, a move towards a more sustainable, lower carbon pathway could help address some of these challenges, and thereby help achieve development goals. This is because there are strong synergies between lower carbon initiatives and the policies needed to meet the challenges. Such a pathway could include promotion of renewable energy (enhance energy security), increased efficiency of biomass fuel use for cooking (to minimise impact on the sustainability of forest resources and wood supply), a focus on urban and transport sustainability (improve urban environments, reduce 1 Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy: Green economy strategy, published in 2011, can be found at http://www.epa.gov.et/Download/Climate/Ethiopia's%20Climate-Resilient%20Green%20economy%20strategy.pdf. In 2011, the Rwandan Government published its National Climate Change and Low Carbon Development Strategy (NCCLCDS). In April 2010 the Government of Kenya published the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS). All countries are now looking at implementation plans. ii transport fuel use and congestion), adoption of sustainable agriculture practices (leading to increased productivity, resilience to climate change, rural income generation through carbon finance) and promotion of sustainable tourism (reducing environmental impacts, increasing high value tourism). Meeting development challenges: business-as-usual versus sustainable, lower carbon pathway Development Sustainable, lower carbon development Business-as-usual pathway challenge pathway + Unsustainable supply of Access to reliable bioenergy + Forestry protection and improved efficiency and sustainable + Reliance on mainland electricity + Diversification to renewable generation energy supply + Energy efficiency promotion, reducing demand + Exposure to oil price hikes Agriculture + Low productivity + Adoption of systems for enhancing productivity + Reduced soil fertility productivity, carbon stocks and resilience + Further reduction in stocks and + Increased promotion of tree planting, forestry Forestry future acute fuel supply problems / and protection (via REDD+) and reduced protection higher prices demand side pressure (higher efficiency use) + Increase public transport / non-motorised + Congestion and high pollution provision Sustainable levels + Better maintained, lower polluting vehicle transport systems + Increasing reliance on oil stock products + Reduced reliance on oil products + Improved waste management (waste water / + Lack of waste management MSW) Urban + Unplanned development of + Sustainable building / community design environment urban areas (taking account of energy needs and climate impacts) + Unsustainable growth leading to Sustainable increasing environmental impacts + Focus on efficiency of resource use, and Tourism + Limited contribution to local benefits to local community community + Limited financing for inward Financing + New source of income via carbon finance investment It is important to highlight that many of the strategies of the Zanzibar Government already fully recognise these challenges, and the importance of an increased emphasis on sustainability. THE PROMOTION OF LOWER CARBON POLICIES AND PROGRAMMES REQUIRES AN UNDERSTANDING OF FUTURE EMISSIONS To assess opportunities for lower carbon development, the first step is to understand current GHG emission levels, and how these will evolve in the future. In the absence of an inventory for Zanzibar, emission estimates including projections have been developed in this study. Developing these projections also quantifies the challenges facing Zanzibar, for example in terms of energy demand growth, projected increase in vehicles etc. The emission inventory estimates for 2010 (shown below) highlight the important contribution from all sectors (apart from waste where the contribution is smaller). Total annual emissions are estimated at 763 Gg CO2 eq, resulting in per capita emissions of 0.6 tCO2. This is a low per capita value in regional and global terms,2 reflecting the very low consumption of fossil fuels for energy. 2 There are a number of subsector estimates missing from the agriculture and LULUCF sectors which could result in this estimate being 10-20% higher. iii 500 Waste LULUCF 450 Agriculture Energy 400 Total Emissions: 763 Gg CO2 eq. Emissions per capita: 0.6 tCO2 350 Sector shares: Energy 39%, Agriculture 28%, LULUCF 300 29%, Waste 4% eq. 250 CO2 Gg 200 150 100 50 0 CO2 CH4 N2O Total GHG emissions in Zanzibar, 20103 Emissions projection estimates are shown in the figure below. They show dramatic increases in emissions from the forestry sector (LULUCF) due to stock changes resulting from fuel wood demand. Transport emissions also increase significantly, driven by the strong growth in vehicle ownership. Finally, the agriculture sector shows increasing emissions growth due to increasing livestock numbers and fertiliser use. Overall, emissions increase by 190% over the 20 year time horizon from 763 GgCO2e in 2010 to 2213 tCO2e in 2030, leading to emissions per capita rising from 0.6 tCO2e to 1.02 tCO2e / capita. This per capita level in 2030 is still significantly lower than most other countries in the region. 2500 1.20 1.00 Transport 2000 Other 0.80 Industry capita 1500 Comm / Inst per eq eq. Residential 0.60 CO2 Gg CO2 Agriculture 1000 LULUCF 0.40 Tonnes Waste 500 0.20 tCO2 per Cap 0 0.00 2010 2020 2030 Projected GHG emissions in Zanzibar, 2010-2030 3 The following emission categories are not included in the base year inventory and projections: domestic marine and aviation, categories under agricultural direct soil emissions (N-fixing plant, crop residues, histosol cultivation), and the LULUCF categories of forest and grassland conversion, onsite burning of forests, abandonment of managed lands and CO2 emissions from agriculturally impacted soils, and waste emissions from water treatment. These omissions are primarily due to lack of data but will be included in the final report if data can be sourced. Modules 2 and 3 (Industrial Processes and Solvents and Other Product Use) have also been omitted due to negligible emissions under these categories. iv It is important to recognise that there are significant uncertainties associated with these estimates due to data availability issues and simplification of the
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