Climate Science Stirs up a Storm
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The newspaper of the physics community July 2007 CONTENTS Climate science stirs up a storm 2 News ● New report on nanoscience ● MODEL practicals appeal to Heather Pinnell reports on a heated debate about global warming, hosted by the Institute. teachers ● Project Juno takes In the same week that the G8 leaders represent the climate during the off ● Queen’s Birthday were discussing climate change and 20th century as it should have been Honours ● Famelab winner is ● agreeing to talk about cutting CO2 according to the models, and compared a physicist Annual emissions, a large audience packed these with actual observations. These Representatives Meeting into the Institute’s London centre to showed that the models simulated real- discusses university places hear expert opinion and discussion ity very well, he said. Similarly, predic- on the models used to understand cli- tions had been made since 1990 using 5 People mate change. On 7 June, MP and for- the models and these had predicted the How Haley Gomez became a mer environment minister Michael state of the climate during the last rising star in physics Meacher chaired a seminar with 17 years very well, but if anything had prominent speakers from both sides underestimated the degree of warming. of the climate change debate, while a A panel discussion followed, with week later there was standing-room Lindzen and Thorpe joined on the only when Prof. Jonathan Gregory, panel by astrophysicist Piers Corbyn one of the lead authors of the and Prof. Chris Rapley, director of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate British Antarctic Survey. Lindzen was Change (IPCC) report, presented evi- challenged on his statement that the dence on global warming. effects of aerosols were “virtually Opening the first seminar, Meacher unknown”. Keith Shine, from Reading 6 Letters said that 10 years ago the issue was University’s meteorology depart- Defending enhancement ● hardly on the radar screen; now there ment, said: “To claim this now in 2007 courses Culture shock in were almost daily reports about cli- virtually beggars belief. There have schools ● Have your say on mate change, including runaway been dozens of field campaigns as nuclear power melting of the arctic sea ice, massive well as collection of satellite data. methane releases in Siberia and There’s a very large body of evidence 7 Event horizon Alaska and dramatic hurricanes. It that aerosols reflect heat back to space What’s on in physics had been suggested that global warm- and contribute to cooling.” Lindzen ing could create 50 million environ- maintained, however, that their global 8 Antimatters mental refugees, while the Pentagon impact was unknown. Observing a new planetarium considers climate change to be a In a meeting organised jointly by greater risk than global terrorism, he the Institute’s Environmental Physics said. “The argument is that increasing Group and its London and South-East CO2 levels are responsible for rising Branch, an audience of more than global temperatures. The question is 170 people again packed into the whether that is correct.” Institute on 13 June. They had come to Though there is an almost universal NASA/Goddard Space Centre hear Prof. Gregory lecture on the consensus that the world is warming Iceland’s Breidamerkurjokull glacier in 1997 (top) and 2000 (bottom). considerable evidence for human- up, some scientists still question induced global warming, for which whether CO2 emissions are causing the warming in the oceans had not yet the IPCC had said there was a 90% “I found a section on change. Prof. Richard Lindzen, an been felt globally were exaggerated. probability. The IPCC did not conduct atmospheric scientist from the Massa- “Ten years ago the Lindzen said that each chain in the new research but assessed the existing black holes, which I chusetts Institute of Technology, is one argument for human-induced global literature, he explained. of them. Addressing the seminar, he issue was hardly on warming was tenuous, leading to an Despite some limitations, the cli- decided to read discussed the main areas of contro- infinitesimally small chance that it mate models were reliable, he said. versy, which concern the uncertainties the radar screen; was the correct model. Like believers There was thermal inertia in the sys- because it looked in the data, the effect of both negative in intelligent design, he said, those tem because it took a long time for the scary.” and positive feedbacks and the sensi- now there are daily who believed in it did so because they oceans to heat up, so there was a pre- Haley Gomez, p5 tivity of the climate to rising CO2 levels. reports about could discover no alternative expla- dicted temperature rise that would lag He went further, however, arguing that nation. “When politics enters the pic- decades behind the corresponding the models are fundamentally wrong climate change.” ture, science takes a back seat, even rise in CO2 levels. Ice core evidence “A scientist appears, and do not take sufficient account of among scientists,” he said. showed that the atmosphere had been the warming in the tropical tropo- Prof. Alan Thorpe, a distinguished little changed for the last 10 000 years, to congratulate them sphere rather than at the surface. Based meteorologist and chief executive of then since about 1750 the levels of or to tell them where on this, he said, no more than about a the Natural Environment Research CO2 shot up and we could be confi- third of the Earth’s surface warming Council, presented substantial evi- dent that this came from fossil fuel they went wrong.” could be due to the greenhouse effect. dence to support the opposing view. burning and deforestation. Heather Pinnell, p8 It was claimed, he said, that dou- He agreed that there were significant He also presented evidence of sea- bling CO2 should lead to about 1.5 C to uncertainties in certain aspects of the level rise, more severe and longer 4.5 C warming. However, we were models, particularly the effects of droughts in the last 30 years and rapid already 86% of the way to a doubling of clouds, but there was no reason to thinning of the arctic ice sheet, as well SIGN UP FOR CO2 levels but have seen only 0.6–0.8 C suppose that the models had a sys- as glacial retreat. Asked by Interactions warming at the surface, he argued. He tematic bias towards human-induced to comment on Lindzen’s arguments, YOUR PHYSMAIL did not believe that aerosols, such as global warming, he said. Gregory said that his views stood out sulphate pollutants in the atmosphere, He described the close correlation as exceptional within the scientific E-MAIL ADDRESS had counteracted much of the warm- between rising CO2 levels and global community. “The scientific literature ing and said that suggestions that there temperatures over the last 100 years. is overwhelmingly saying that CO2 is members.iop.org was a long time delay as the effect of Scientists had created “hindcasts” to causing climactic warming,” he said. Interactions July 2007 2 news HIGHLIGHTS Physics buskers take experiments far afield Nanoscience looks to the future A team of physics “buskers” from the Institute performed tricks to engage visitors at the East Nanoscience could provide huge ben- the same constituents in a bulk mate- elements of a DNA computer. of England County Show on 15–17 June. Their efits to society but further research is rial because of their much larger sur- Researchers are already integrating needed into any problems that could face-area-to-volume ratio. This leads enzymes with metal and organic demonstrations included making balloon arise from the use of nanoparticles, to increased chemical reactivity which nanostructures to build devices to act kebabs and launching Alka Seltzer rockets according to a report published jointly means nanoparticles can make good as biomedical motors. during the event in Peterborough. The aim was to take physics to by the Institute and the Royal Society catalysts. The emergence of quantum The booklet says that governments people who would not actively seek it out, according to the of Chemistry, The Future for Nanoscience effects at the nanoscale means nano- around the world should work with Institute’s physics in society manager, Caitlin Watson. The activity and Nanotechnology. It explains some of materials can be used as the basis for industry and the research communi- attracted a lot of attention at the show from both adults and the ways in which nanoscience is lead- quantum dots, with applications in ties to establish global protocols for children, and people were shown how they could perform the same ing to new materials and technologies data-reading devices and potentially as testing the safety of nanotechnologi- and its potential applications. the elements of quantum computers. cal products. Nanoparticles are highly tricks in front of family and friends. The event was the first in a The booklet says that nanotechnol- It is inevitable that developments in reactive and may be able to traverse number of Physics in the Field demonstrations – the team is set to ogy is likely to affect every industry technology will tend towards increas- cell membranes, it notes, although no perform at the Bradford Mela (7–8 July), the Highland Games in eventually and it is predicted that ing miniaturisation, the report says. clinical toxicity has been reported in Inverness (21–22 July) and the Green Man Festival in the Brecon products made using nanotechnolog- This will probably involve integration humans. There is a need for further Beacons, Wales (17–19 August) . ical processes will account for 15% of of chemical and biologically-based research into these possible effects and global manufacturing output by 2014.