MODULE SPECIFICATION – UNDERGRADUATE PROGRAMMES

KEY FACTS

Module name Business Forecasting Module code IF3103 School Cass Business School Department or equivalent UG Programme (Cass Business School) UK credits 15 ECTS 7.5 Level 6 Delivery location (partnership programmes only)

MODULE SUMMARY

Module outline and aims

Every decision (in finance, business, economics, monetary policy, etc) ultimately depends on a forecast. This course complements the knowledge acquired in an introductory course in business statistics and/or econometrics. Specifically, building on the theoretical background provided by the aforementioned foundational courses, it provides the necessary tools in order to make forecasts for a variety of problems: demand for goods, return on financial assets, macroeconomic aggregates. The aim of this course is to give you a working understanding of the main quantitative and judgemental methods used to make business forecasts.

Content outline

-What makes a good forecast? -Exponential smoothing models -Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) models -Computer lab: EVIEWS time series models -Linear regression models -Stationary VARs -Non-stationary VARs and cointegration -Computer lab: EVIEWS regression models and VARs -Interpreting the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) -Case Study: Forecasting UK Inflation

Pre-requisite Modules: BS2102 Business Statistics 2 OR FR2202 Financial Econometrics OR AS2101 Probability and Statistics 2

WHAT WILL I BE EXPECTED TO ACHIEVE?

On successful completion of this module, you will be expected to be able to:

Knowledge and understanding: -Interpret time series business and economic data and make forecasts with this data

-Support and contribute to planning and forecasting meetings within companies

-Make an informed and critical judgment about commentary and forecasts written by professional forecasters such as analysts and management consultants

Skills: -Choose between alternative forecasting methods

-Develop technical knowledge of the theory and practice of modern business forecasting techniques

-Select main quantitative and judgemental methods to make business forecasts

Values and attitudes: -Stimulate reflective, self-directed learning

-Perceive the relevance of theory for empirical applications

HOW WILL I LEARN? Lectures and computer labs, requiring extensive preparation beforehand through self- directed study. Lectures are self-contained, in that no other reference (articles, textbooks, etc) is required to acquire a sufficient knowledge of the subject matter, although it could be a useful complement. The main purpose of lectures is to get a grasp of the theory; the main purpose of computer labs is to use the theory. The face- to-face teaching is complemented by the use of the Virtual Learning Environment, with study and practice material being uploaded on Moodle. In the independent study time you are encouraged to read widely and in depth around particular topics in preparation for lectures and tutorials. You may also spend time working through sample exercises and questions. In addition you will be preparing and undertaking your coursework assignments and preparing for your final examination.

Teaching pattern:

Teaching Teaching Contact Self- Placement Total component type hours directed hours student study learning hours hours Lab Session Practical 6 29 0 35 classes and workshops Lectures Lecture 18 97 0 115 Totals 24 126 0 150

WHAT TYPES OF ASSESSMENT AND FEEDBACK CAN I EXPECT?

Assessments

You will be evaluated through one final exam and one group presentation.

Assessment Assessment Weighting Minimum Pass/Fail? component type % qualifying mark Coursework Oral 30 0 N/A assessment and presentation Examination – Written 70 0 N/A 2¼ hours Exam

Assessment criteria

Assessment criteria are descriptions of the skills, knowledge or attributes you need to demonstrate in order to complete an assessment successfully and Grade-Related Criteria are descriptions of the skills, knowledge or attributes you need to demonstrate to achieve a certain grade or mark in an assessment. Assessment Criteria and Grade- Related Criteria for module assessments will be made available to you prior to an assessment taking place. More information will be available in the UG Assessment Handbook and from the module leader.

Feedback on assessment

Following an assessment, you will be given your marks and feedback in line with the Assessment Regulations and Policy.

Feedback on coursework (group presentations) will be provided during the presentations, through questions and comments. This is a unique opportunity for students to reflect on their own learning, as questions and comments will try to stimulate reflections on the links between applications and theory; it is therefore recommended that everyone attend presentations. Also, revision sessions at the end of each part of the module will be implicitly based on issues and topics emerged during the presentation.

Feedback on the final exam will be provided on a collective basis by highlighting what was done correctly and what was done incorrectly during the exam; the format of such feedback will be in writing and will be circulated after the exam period. Again, this will stimulate the student to reflect on his/her own learning.

Assessment Regulations

The Pass mark for the module is 40%. Any minimum qualifying marks for specific assessments are listed in the table above. The weighting of the different components can also be found above. The Programme Specification contains information on what happens if you fail an assessment component or the module.

INDICATIVE READING LIST

Hanke, J.E. et al. 2004. Business Forecasting. 8th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.

Pindyck, R.S. and Rubinfeld, D.L. 1998. Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts. 4th ed. New York: McGraw Hill.

Version: 3.0 Version date: November 2015 For use from: 2016-17

Appendix: see http://www.hesa.ac.uk/content/view/1805/296/ for the full list of JACS codes and descriptions

Module: Business Forecasting Module Code: IF3103 School: Cass Business School Department: UG Programme (Cass Business School)

CODES

HESA Code Description Price Group 133 Business and D Management Studies

JACS Code Description Percentage (%) L140 The study of the 100 systematic mathematical and statistical analysis of economic phenomena and problems.